IFPRI-  dynamics of pulses production
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IFPRI- dynamics of pulses production

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The presentation is by Inbasekar, IARI from the one day workshop on ‘Pulses for Nutrition in India: Changing Patterns from Farm-to-Fork’ organized on Jan 14, 2014. The workshop is based on a few ...

The presentation is by Inbasekar, IARI from the one day workshop on ‘Pulses for Nutrition in India: Changing Patterns from Farm-to-Fork’ organized on Jan 14, 2014. The workshop is based on a few studies conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute under the CGIAR’s Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health. These studies covered the entire domain of pulse sector in India from production to consumption, prices to trade, processing to value addition, and from innovations to the role of private sector in strengthening the entire pulse value chain. These studies were designed to better understand the drivers of changing dynamics of pulses in the value chain from farm-to-fork, and explore opportunities for meeting their availability through increased production, enhanced trade and improved efficiency.

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IFPRI-  dynamics of pulses production IFPRI- dynamics of pulses production Presentation Transcript

  • Dynamics of Pulses Production Presented by K. Inbasekar Scientist (Agricultural Economics), Division of Agricultural Economics Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi Advisor Dr. Devesh Roy Research Fellow IFPRI January 14th, 2014 , New Delhi
  • Introduction Neglected by Green Revolution India’s position in the world: 33% of area 25% of production 27% of consumption Imports 3 - 4 million tones of pulses every year Important source of protein Per capita availability decreasing – 60 g/day in 1950 & 31.6 g/day in 2011
  • Importance of pulses in Indian Agriculture Sustainable agricultural production Improving soil health and nutrient fixation Fodder for cattle Raw material for industries Important rain-fed crop
  • Government’s response…. Pulses Development Scheme (4th FYP) (1969-70 to 1973-74) National Pulses Development Project (7th FYP) (1985-86 to 1989-90) Special Food Grain Production Program (1988-89) ISOPOM – (2004) NFSM-Pulses (A3P) – (2007-08) Special Plan to achieve 19+ Million tonnes of Pulses production during Kharif (2012-13)
  • Objectives To study the spatial and temporal variation in pulses production in India with special emphasis on chickpea and pigeonpea. To study the factors affecting relative area allocation to pulses.
  • Four distinct phases of pulses development  Pre-green Revolution period (1960-1970)  Stagnant area and production  No major breakthroughs in pulses research and government schemes  Post-green revolution period (1971-1990)  Area and production decreased in northern and eastern zones  Area and production increased in southern, western and central zones  Pulses Development Scheme (4th Plan)
  • Four distinct phases of pulses development  Post-liberalization period (1991-2000)  Further increase in pulses area and production in southern and western states  Short duration and wilt resistant  Special Food Grain Production Program (1988-89)  Post-trade spike period (2001 – present)  Third take off in pulses area and production in southern states and western states  Could trade have played a role in domestic production and consumption?
  • All over India – Comparative Performance of pulses & cereals (Percentage change) Crops Particulars Pre -green Revolution (1960-70) Post -green revolution (1971-90) Post -liberalization (1991-2000) Post -trade spike (2000-2010) Area -9.73 -18.06 39.19 12.3 14.98 0.51 19.02 5.12 8.26 32.54 -1.89 3.37 Production 10.68 42.6 -5.81 7.64 2.4 7.32 -3.99 3.91 -8.02 3.31 -0.93 2.25 Production -0.87 10.34 2.15 14.08 Yield 7.97 6.72 3.67 11.23 Area +26.11 48.53 15.62 3.18 Production 95.54 171.58 42.55 12.13 Yield 55.13 82.98 23.33 8.73 Area Paddy Production Area Wheat 6.43 Yield Total Pulses 17.68 Area Pigeon Pea -18.46 Yield Chick Pea -21.64 11.88 10.46 8.72 -1.53 Production 33.77 70.56 28.55 10.34 Yield 19.72 54.00 18.54 12.09 8
  • 30 Total Pulses Scenario - India 800 700 600 20 500 15 400 300 10 200 5 100 0 0 Area (million ha) Production (million tonnes) Yield(kg/ha) Linear (Area (million ha)) Linear (Production (million tonnes)) Linear (Yield(kg/ha)) Yield (kg/ha) Area & Production (millions) 25
  • Zone-wise total pulses area Northern Zone I 5000 '000 ha 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Haryana Punjab Uttar Pradesh Northern Zone II 100 '000 ha 80 60 40 20 0 Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir 10 Uttarakhand
  • Zone-wise total pulses area – contd., 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Andhra Pradesh 60 Karnataka Kerala 50 '000 ha '000 ha Southern Zone 40 30 20 10 0 Kerala Tamil Nadu
  • Zone-wise total pulses area – contd., Eastern Zone 3000 '000 ha 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Bihar Orissa West Bengal Jharkhand Western Zone 5000 '000 ha 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Gujarat Maharashtra 12 Rajasthan
  • Zone-wise total pulses area – contd., Central Zone 7000 6000 *000 ha 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Madhya Pradesh 40 North Eastern Zone 35 '000 ha 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Manipur Nagaland
  • Chickpea Area (‘000 ha)
  • Chickpea Production (‘000 tons)
  • Chickpea Yield (kg/ha)
  • Pigeon pea Area (‘000 ha)
  • Pigeon pea Production (‘000 tons)
  • Pigeon pea Yield (Kg/ha)
  • Changing composition of Indian pulses production basket – TE 1991 Others 14% Peas 4% Chickpea 36% Greengram 10% Blackgram 12% Lentil 5% Pigeonpea 19%
  • Changing composition of Indian pulses production basket – TE 2000 Others 13% Peas 5% Chickpea 42% Greengram 7% Blackgram 9% Lentil 7% Pigeonpea 17%
  • Changing composition of Indian pulses production basket – TE 2012 Peas 4% Others 9% Greengram 8% Chickpea 47% Blackgram 10% Lentil 6% Pigeonpea 16%
  • Chickpea : Yield growth and Instability 30 Post-trade spike (2001-2010) 24.7 25 20 20 19.7 18.7 16.4 14.8 14.3 15 13.2 13 11.9 11.3 10 7.88 5.53 5 3.9 3.26 2.06 1.46 2.4 1.2 0.29 0.57 3.17 2.14 0.74 0 -0.59 -5 Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation (%) 1.22
  • Chickpea: Yield-Gap Analysis 2000 1809 1800 1600 1689 1660 1610 1589 1395 1389 1400 1393 1418 1390 1264 kg/ha 1200 1140 1046 1000 952 902 1096 1041 941 907 835 808 800 600 687 676 594 200 708 585 511 454 400 343 1063 974 576 564 714 638 587 509 425 349 82 76 0 Attainable Yield (kg/ha) Actual Average Yield (kg/ha) Yield Gap (kg/ha) 547
  • Pigeonpea: Yield growth and Instability Post-trade spike (2001-2010) 40 34.3 35 28.75 30 24.89 25 19.05 20 15 17.52 14.64 14.13 12.14 11.29 13.97 12.04 5 10.13 9.79 10 3.82 5.2 4.47 4.26 2.26 1.16 1.17 4.41 2.09 0 -0.31 1.82 -0.03 -0.22 -5 -5.25 -10 Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation (%) 1.09
  • Pigeonpea: Yield-Gap Analysis 1597 1600 1400 1169 1200 kg/ha 1000 1107 986 964 898 898 828 800 769 750 699 694 627 721 718 662 594 600 400 440 388 337 306 148 200 415 121 100 107 0 Attainable Yield (kg/ha) Actual Average Yield (kg/ha) Yield Gap (kg/ha) 451
  • Determinants of area allocation for chickpea with respect to competing crops Explanatory Variables Road Density Unit percentage Fertilizer Consumption Market Density kg/ha Urban percentage September rainfall mille meter October rainfall mille meter Smallholders percentage percentage Fixed effect coefficients 0.000814 (0.0006) 9.37e-05 (0.0005) 0.00893 (0.01) 0.00218 (0.007) 9.02e-05 (9.33e-05) 6.56e-05 (0.0001) -0.00736** (0.003) Tractors no/1000 ha -0.00426*** (0.001) Per Capita Income Rupees -7.66e-06* (4.21e-06) Wage Rupees -0.00228** (0.0009) Irrigated Area percentage -0.00338* (0.002) No. of observations R-squared RMSE - 347 0.711 0.106 Year Fixed Effect Year Standar Dummy Coefficients d Error Base Year : 1981 1994 0.0955** 0.04 1995 0.113** 0.04 1996 0.122** 0.04 1997 0.163*** 0.05 1998 0.182*** 0.05 1999 0.169*** 0.05 2000 0.153*** 0.05 2001 0.203*** 0.05 2002 0.212*** 0.05
  • Spatial variation in chickpea area allocation States Andhra Pradesh Assam Gujarat Karnataka Maharashtra Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu West Bengal Fixed Effect State Dummy Coefficients Base State : Madhya Pradesh Standard Error -0.260*** -0.277** -0.415*** -0.310*** -0.488*** -0.298** -0.112*** -0.424*** -0.275** 0.07 0.13 0.07 0.06 0.10 0.12 0.04 0.12 0.11
  • Major Findings and policy implications Major Findings Policy Implications Authorities Pulses are competing with Integrated agricultural cereals (chickpea with wheat policy with clear cut & pigeonpea with paddy), strategies – MSP, irrigation negatively Procurement associated with relative area infrastructure. Central & State Governments allocation to pulses. Decoupling of centres of pulses production and Developing effective supply chain management system Central & State Governments, Private sector consumption. 29
  • Major Findings Policy Implications Within states – regional Region specific specialization & Between technologies and crop states - geographical Authorities varieties will serve well. ICAR, CGIAR, SAU’s continuity observed. High yield instability and yield gap observed in the northern & western India Diffusion of available technologies, improving Seed Replacement Rate State Governments
  • Major Findings July rainfall – Negatively associated with relative area allocation to pigeonpea Policy Implications Authorities Take soil conservation, State Governments drainage, agronomic measures to address flooding problem in pigeonpea Developing short duration flood resistant varieties in pigeonpea ICAR, CGIAR, SAU’s
  • Thank you !!!!!