IFPRI- changing pattern of trade and its implication on pulses

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The presentation is by Raj Chandra, IFPRI from the one day workshop on ‘Pulses for Nutrition in India: Changing Patterns from Farm-to-Fork’ organized on Jan 14, 2014. The workshop is based on a few studies conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute under the CGIAR’s Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health. These studies covered the entire domain of pulse sector in India from production to consumption, prices to trade, processing to value addition, and from innovations to the role of private sector in strengthening the entire pulse value chain. These studies were designed to better understand the drivers of changing dynamics of pulses in the value chain from farm-to-fork, and explore opportunities for meeting their availability through increased production, enhanced trade and improved efficiency.

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IFPRI- changing pattern of trade and its implication on pulses

  1. 1. Changing Patterns of Pulses Trade By Raj Chandra Sr. Research Assistant International Food Policy Research Institute & Devesh Roy Research Fellow International Food Policy Research Institute
  2. 2. Why study pulses trade? • Trade has significant implication on production, consumption and resource allocation (land, water, labor allocations) • Fact- Biggest changes across commodities in terms of these markers during trade spike period (beginning around 2000) • Several government program aimed at scaling up production notwithstanding • Yet pulses trade has not been studied in much detail • Preemptive question- Are Pulses going to be next edible oil?? Positive as opposed to a normative question
  3. 3. Pulses-Next Edible Oil?? Portent Signs Total Quantity Imported- Edible Oil & Pulses 9 Quantity in million tons 8 7 6 5 4 Edible Oil 3 Pulses 2 1 0 Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2012
  4. 4. Pulses next Edible Oil? • Import penetration in case of edible oil has reached 50 per cent • Import penetration for pulses has increased to 19.6% in 2010. In odd years equal to quarter share • India’s fight with high food prices – rely on trade (though not systematically) to cool markets • Imports can have a cooling effect on pulse markets – Which commodity with what consistency • Inconsistent trade policy • Need to study trade systematically 4
  5. 5. About Data Set • Study is based on a highly disaggregated 8 digit customs data – Novel part of the study • Several details- disaggregated commodity, landing ports, trading partners, entry timing, volume, value and retailers • Apparently a simple task – Made arduous – Volume not standardized in units of measurement. – Commodities named differently Ex: Urad, Udid, Urid, Orid, Black Matpe/Mapte, Black Gram – Several different units such as bags, containers, cartons, boxes, numbers, kgs have been converted into common denomination
  6. 6. Units are not uniform Product Description UNIT E-36 CHANA ROASTED,25KGS, (SION SR. NO K65) KABULI CHANA 1KG (1403,) 200 X 25 X 1KG BAG TOOR DAL (2 LBS) 910 G PAC 30 CTNS URID DHALL WHOLE E36 UDAD DAL WASHED (MATPE BEANS), (907 GMS X 20 PKTS), PCS 600 BAGS TOOR DAL TDM"" BESAN(CHICK PAES FLOUR) PACKE,D IN PLASTIC & PAPER PACKIN QTL E-36 URAD DAL WHITE (MARSH DAL) CAS MOONG DAAL CTN BOX PKG NOS
  7. 7. Salient findings of the study • Leapfrogging of peas imports • Congruent changes between domestic production and imports • Varietal and partner mix in the import portfolio dynamic • The extensive and intensive margin domains vary by commodity • Fledgling exports evolving in value added items
  8. 8. Transition: 2001 – 2010 (the peas leapfrog) % Share in total quantity imported-2001 Lentils 1% Moong 13% Beans 3% % Share in total quantity imported- 2010 other 2% Peas 18% Pigeon Pea 18% Chick Peas 24% other 2% Peas 49% BM 18% BM 21% Source: Customs Data Lentils 7% Moong 7% Chick Peas 4% Beans 5% Pigeon Pea 8% 8
  9. 9. Evolution of Trade across Commodity over Time Percentage share of different commodity in total import 60.00 Percentage 50.00 40.00 Peas 30.00 Pigeon Pea 20.00 Black Matpe 10.00 0.00 Source: Customs Data Chick Peas
  10. 10. Yellow Peas-Palm Oil of Pulses Market • “Yellow peas are the palm oil of the pulses market. The way world's cheapest oil—palm —has set the cap on soya and mustard oils, yellow peas too are setting the market trend in pulses. Their importance will continue to expand in the coming years.” Gaurav Sekhri, MD Tinna Overseas • Yellow Peas are the lowest priced pulse available in the world market • Import price for YP is just Rs15/kg compared to Rs40/kg for Pigeon Pea • Attractive for traders • Used as both raw (dal) and processed (besan) • Canada is the biggest supplier of yellow pea to India 10
  11. 11. List of Exporting Countries Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Europe Africa North & South America China Nepal Russia Ethiopia United States Indonesia Myanmar Turkey Madagascar Brazil Iran Uzbekistan Ukraine Tanzania Peru Iraq Pakistan France Mozambique Canada Hong Kong Malaysia Belgium Malawi Australia Sri Lanka UAE Great Britain Uganda UAE Thailand Italy Kenya
  12. 12. Leading Exporters to India Pulses Countries Peas Canada Pigeon Pea Myanmar Chick Pea Australia Black Matpe Myanmar Green Gram Myanmar Lentils Canada
  13. 13. Evolution of Trading Partner's share Year 2001 Others 20% Singapore 5% Year 2005 Australia 3% Canada 21% United States 3% Tanzania 4% Iran 10% Myanmar 41% Source: Customs Data Myanmar 36% Others 14% Australia 3% Canada 40%
  14. 14. Evolution of Trading Partner’s share year 2012 Others 23% Australia 10% Ukarine 1% France 3% Tanzania 2% United States 3% Canada 28% Russia 13% Source: Customs data Myanmar 17%
  15. 15. Why study Export? • Around 2-3 per cent of total production is exported every year. • Annual growth rate of 23 per cent for volume and 32 per cent for value of export, between 2000-2012 • Prices could have increased at a higher rate than quantity exported • Imports and Exports are linked through intermediary inputs-Scope for Intra-industry trade • Whether we have comparative advantage in exporting processed pulses? • Earning of 300 million US dollars in 2012 • Can India become a net exporter of pulses like happened in case of cotton? • Global exporter and second largest cotton producer in the world
  16. 16. Any lessons from Cotton Industry? Cotton- From Net Importer to Net Exporter Quantity in thousand tonnes 2500 2000 1500 Export Import 1000 500 0 2001-03 2004-06 2007-09 Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2012 2010-11
  17. 17. Trade Policy for Exports • Initially export was prohibited for 6 months in June’2006 • Prohibition was extended from time to time • According to latest DGFT notification prohibition is extended till 31st March,2014 with two exceptions: Export of Kabuli Chana (allowed in March 2007) 10,000 MTs of organic pulses and lentils per annum • Prohibition also exempts countries like Srilanka, Bhutan, Maldives, Mauritius and Nepal for some fixed quantity per annum .
  18. 18. Share of different Varieties in Total Exports Percentage Share in Total Exports (2012) Moong 3% Pigeon Peas 8% Black Matpe 11% Lentils 3% Chick Peas 47% Beans 28%
  19. 19. Chick Peas-From Net Import to Net Export • Chick peas exports constitutes 40-47% of total pulses exports (since 2007) • Around 2% of total production is exported every year. 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Chick Pea Export 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Chick Pea Import 2000 Quantity in Million Tons Chick Pea- Export and Import
  20. 20. Export evolving in value added pulse items Year Unit Value- Exports ($/ton) Unit Value-Imports ($/ton) 2000 468 428 2001 682 343 2002 842 260 2003 853 213 2004 269 288 2005 557 347 2006 741 370 2007 717 477 2008 846 522 2009 739 548 2010 696 474
  21. 21. Policy Implications • Commodity wise detailed information • Knowledge about the intensive and extensive margins of trade – Important for market power considerations – Important for spreading out risk • Trade crowding in or crowding out domestic production • Resource allocation • Trade and availability of pulses across varieties • Trade’s Proactive/Reactionary effect
  22. 22. Thank you

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