IFPRI- changing consumption pattern of pulses

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The presentation is by P Kumar, IARI and P K Joshi, IFPRI from the one day workshop on ‘Pulses for Nutrition in India: Changing Patterns from Farm-to-Fork’ organized on Jan 14, 2014. The workshop is based on a few studies conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute under the CGIAR’s Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health. These studies covered the entire domain of pulse sector in India from production to consumption, prices to trade, processing to value addition, and from innovations to the role of private sector in strengthening the entire pulse value chain. These studies were designed to better understand the drivers of changing dynamics of pulses in the value chain from farm-to-fork, and explore opportunities for meeting their availability through increased production, enhanced trade and improved efficiency.

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IFPRI- changing consumption pattern of pulses

  1. 1. Changing Consumption Pattern of Pulses in India: Past Trends and Projections Supported by CRP 4: A4NH P.Kumar and P K Joshi International Food Policy Research Institute South Asia Regional Office, New Delhi 110 012 India E-mail: pkumariari@gmail.com Web: www.ifpri.org
  2. 2. Backdrop A gradual shift is taking place from traditional diets, dominated by cereals and pulses, to a dietary mix rich in high-value commodities (livestock, horticultural and processed food).  Pulse scenario is changing International Food Policy Research Institute
  3. 3. Outline Changing dietary pattern Changing consumption of pulses Sources of protein and contribution of pulses Demand and supply projections and gap International Food Policy Research Institute
  4. 4. Data and approach  Data source     Classification of NSS data Three income groups     NSSO from 1988 to 2009 Period of study: 1988-2009 Low income (Below poverty line) Middle income (PL to 150% PL) High income (above 150% PL) Demography   Rural and Urban State level International Food Policy Research Institute  Classification by Farm Size      <0.5 ha Sub-marginal 0.5-1.0 ha Marginal 1.0-2.0 ha Small farms 2.0-4.0 ha Medium Farm > 4.0 ha Large farms
  5. 5. I CHANGING DIETARY PATTERN International Food Policy Research Institute
  6. 6. Dietary diversification (kg/capita/annum) Food item Rice Wheat Other cereals Total cereals Pulses Sugar Edible oils Vegetables Fruits Milk 1988 2009 % change 88.3 56.7 22.1 167.1 11.8 11.4 5.2 52.4 12.1 53.3 79.6 46.8 6.8 133.2 8.4 9.2 8.4 87.2 16.5 63.8 -9.9 -17.5 -69.1 -20.3 -28.8 -19.9 62.5 66.4 35.9 19.5
  7. 7. Dietary diversification (kg/capita/annum) Food Commodity Rice Wheat Other cereals Total cereals Pulses Edible oils Vegetables Fruits Milk Sugar Meat, Fish & eggs Poor households 1988 2009 change,% 73.7 46.8 25.3 71.1 42.8 7.7 -3.5 -8.6 -69.5 Rich households 1988 2009 change, % 99.6 82.5 -17.1 67.3 49.1 -27.0 18.8 5.8 -69.2 145.8 121.6 -16.6 185.6 137.4 -26.0 7.8 3.1 38.3 5.3 18.5 6.6 3.2 5.6 5.5 62.7 5.0 22.1 5.7 4.1 -28.1 78.1 63.6 -6.0 19.1 -13.1 25.4 16.4 7.6 68.5 21.1 95.9 17.2 9.3 10.3 10.2 102.6 24.8 91.7 11.3 13.9 -37.2 34.4 49.7 17.7 -4.4 -34.2 49.7
  8. 8. II CHANGING PULSE CONSUMPTION
  9. 9. Annual per capita consumption of pulses (kg/annum) Income 1988 % 2009 Change Rural • Low • Medium • High • All 7.4 10.6 15.6 11.2 5.5 7.0 9.9 8.1 -25.5 -34.7 -36.1 -27.8 8.7 11.8 16.5 12.5 5.8 7.4 10.8 8.9 -33.2 -37.5 -34.6 -28.7 Urban • Low • Medium • High • All • Pulse consumption of poor (5.5 or 5.8 kg) is almost half of rich (9.9 or 10.8 kg) consumers • Pulse consumption is declining in all income groups in rural and urban – Decline is faster in urban than rural – Higher consumption in urban than rural households
  10. 10. Dietary diversification of farmers (kg/capita/year) 20 15 10 5 Pulse consumption  16.6 11.5 9.3 7.9  0 < .5 ha 1-2 ha 1988 150 > 2 ha 2009 Milk consumption 96.5 100 50 0  10 8.5 115.7 48.1 30.6 68 49.9 < .5 ha 1-2 ha 1988 > 2 ha 2009 International Food Policy Research Institute Pulse consumption declined in all classes, more among large farmers 7.9 kg by marginal farmers than 10 kg by large farmers Milk consumption is more among large farmers but increasing faster in marginal farmers (63%) then the large farmers (20%)
  11. 11. Consumer segmentation of pulses, 2009 ( kg/capita/annum) Low High • Farmers in low income category are income income Rural 5.5 9.9 Urban 5.8 10.8 Farmers 7.9 10.0 consuming more pulses than the rural & urban consumer • All categories in higher income are consuming almost same quantity
  12. 12. Product wise consumption of pulses (kg/capita/annum) Year 1988 2009 % change Chickpea 2.42 2.10 -13.22 Pigeon pea 3.11 2.15 -30.87 Green gram 1.58 1.02 -35.44 Lentil 1.70 1.16 -31.76 Black gram 1.24 0.93 -25.00 Yellow Peas 0.26 0.45 73.08 Soybean 0.04 0.08 100.00 Khesari (Lytherous) 0.31 0.49 58.06 All pulses & product 11.62 8.46 -27.19 Pigeon pea followed by chickpea are the most important pulses but their consumption is declining Consumption of cheap pulses (yellow pea, soybean and khesari) is increasing
  13. 13. Structural change in consumption of pulses in India (% share of pulses in total pulses) PulsesY 1988 2009 Change 2009 over 1988 Pigeon pea 26.8 25.4 -0.8 Chickpea 20.8 24.8 4.0 Lentil 14.6 13.7 -0.9 Green gram 13.6 12.1 -1.5 Black gram 10.7 11.0 0.3 Yellow peas 2.2 5.3 3.1
  14. 14. Major pulse consuming states Pigeon pea • • • • • • • Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Karnataka Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Chickpea • • • • • • • Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Punjab Uttarakhand Rajasthan Jharkhand Lentil • • • • Assam Bihar West Bengal North-east states
  15. 15. III PROTEIN INTAKE AND PULSE CONTRIBUTION
  16. 16. Protein intake by incomegroup (g/capita/annum) Income Poor Middle 1988 49.8 62.1 2009 47.8 58.9 % change -4.3 -5.4 Rich 80.1 84.7 5.4 Photo sources: Gescommodity.com; 123rf.com; indiamart.com; chefinyou.com; indiamart.com; panchpakwan.com; foodspice.com; aagriculttimeformation.com; • Protein intake among 2/3 of population is very low & declining • Among 1/3 rich consumers protein intake is slowly rising
  17. 17. Among farmers protein intake is rising except of large farmers (g/capita/annum) Farm-size 1988 2009 change,% Sub-marginal (<0.5 ha) 60.1 66.7 11.1 Marginal (0.5-1.0 ha) 63.8 66.7 4.6 Small (1.0-2.0 ha) 67.5 69.5 3.0 Medium (2.0-4.0 ha) 72.5 73.5 1.3 Large (> 4 ha) 83.3 78.3 -6.0 All farms 68.7 69.0 0.5
  18. 18. Sources of protein in Indian diet across rural and urban households (% share in total) Household type Pulses 10.8 4.2 0.5 8.1 4.3 2.3 2009 52.4 7.3 5.2 0.6 9.0 6.9 18.5 1988 60.4 Urban Vegetables Fruits Milk Meat, fish Processed & eggs food Cereals 1988 69.8 Rural Year 12.9 4.8 0.8 11.5 6.1 3.4 2009 42.1 7.4 4.8 0.7 7.1 28.7 9.1 • Cereals are the main source of protein (52.4%) but are declining overtime in both rural and urban areas • Share of pulses in protein is declining but that of milk, meat and processed commodities is increasing. • Processed food contributing protein 18% in rural and 29% in urban
  19. 19. Trends in protein intake from pulses (g/capita/day) Income group Low income group (BPL) Medium Income group High income group All Low income group Medium Income group High income group All Low income group Medium Income group High income group All 1988 Rural 9.3 10.5 12.0 10.8 Urban 11.2 12.8 14.1 12.9 India 9.9 11.1 12.7 11.5 2009 Change, % (1988-2009) 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.3 -26.2 -31.6 -37.0 -32.2 7.6 7.7 7.2 7.4 -32.3 -39.3 -49.0 -43.2 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 -27.7 -33.8 -41.7 -35.9
  20. 20. IV DEMAND-SUPPLY PROJECTIONS 2030
  21. 21. Demand for pulses • • • • Direct demand Value added products Seed Miscellaneous 11.3 m t (69%) 3.7 m t (20%) 1.2 m t (7%) 1.8 m t (4%)
  22. 22. Demand elasticities of pulses by income group Income elasticity Price elasticity Sum of income and price elasticity Low income 0.500 -0.699 -0.199 Middle income 0.274 -0.530 -0.256 High income 0.098 -0.349 -0.251 All households 0.206 -0.456 -0.250 Income group International Food Policy Research Institute
  23. 23. Yield response elasticities for pulses in India Input price Pulse grains Output price (P) w/P b/P m/P r/P i/P All Pulses 0.1695 -0.0007 -0.0012 0.0020 -0.0013 0.0012 Chick pea 0.2348 -0.0011 -0.0125 0.0123 0.0015 -0.0001 Green gram 0.2992 0.0024 0.0051 -0.0028 -0.0009 -0.0038 Pigeon pea 0.1869 0.0004 0.0014 0.0023 -0.0021 -0.0020 Black gram 0.1890 0.0058 -0.0116 0.0031 -0.0042 0.0069 International Food Policy Research Institute
  24. 24. Projected growth in production of pulse grains in India:2010-2030 Commodity S2: Baseline growth + 50% acceleration in TFP growth by 2030 Baseline scenario (S1) 2010 2020 2030 All Pulses 2.48 2.48 2.52 2.54 Chick pea 4.48 4.49 4.52 4.56 Green gram 3.12 3.13 3.24 3.38 Pigeon pea 2.23 2.25 2.44 2.57 Black gram 1.78 1.80 1.92 2.02 S3:Baseline growth + 50% deceleration in TFP growth by 2030 All Pulses 2.48 2.47 2.43 2.40 Chick pea 4.48 4.48 4.44 4.40 Green gram 3.12 3.10 2.96 2.85 Pigeon pea 2.23 2.21 2.10 2.00 Black gram 1.78 1.77 1.69 1.62 International Food Policy Research Institute
  25. 25. Domestic production and demand under different scenarios and trade potential of pulses in India:2010-2030 Year Production Pulse grains Pulses S1:Baseline scenario Demand Pulses (Million tonnes) DemandProduction gap 2010 16.17 14.55 18.02 -3.47 2020 20.65 18.59 21.87 -3.28 2030 26.38 23.74 26.58 -2.84 S2: Baseline scenario +50% TFP growth acceleration by the year 2030 2010 16.17 14.55 18.02 -3.47 2020 20.7 18.63 21.87 -3.24 2030 26.57 23.91 26.58 -2.67 S3: Baseline +50% TFP growth deceleration by the year 2030 2010 16.16 14.55 18.02 -3.47 2020 20.59 18.53 21.87 -3.34 2030 26.14 23.53 26.58 -3.05 International Food Policy Research Institute
  26. 26. Demand-supply projections for pulses, million tons Year Demand Production Deficit 2010 18.02 14.55 -3.47 2020 21.87 18.59 -3.28 2030 26.58 23.74 -2.84 International Food Policy Research Institute
  27. 27. Summary of key findings • Similarity in patterns of decline in consumption of pulses across demographic, income and farm size groups • Decline in rate of pulses more in case of higher income groups than lower income groups • Decline rate of pulses more in case of larger farm sizes than smaller farm sizes • Increase in consumption of cheaper pulses like peas, soya and Khesari (lathyrus) • Demand of value added (processed) pulses is increasing significantly • Diversification towards protein sources (livestock and processed food)  Decline of pulses share in total intake of proteins  Deficit of pulses projected around 3 million tonnes in future too. International Food Policy Research Institute
  28. 28. Thank you Thank you Page 28

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