The presentation is by P Kumar, IARI and P K Joshi, IFPRI from the one day workshop on ‘Pulses for Nutrition in India: Changing Patterns from Farm-to-Fork’ organized on Jan 14, 2014. The workshop is based on a few studies conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute under the CGIAR’s Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health. These studies covered the entire domain of pulse sector in India from production to consumption, prices to trade, processing to value addition, and from innovations to the role of private sector in strengthening the entire pulse value chain. These studies were designed to better understand the drivers of changing dynamics of pulses in the value chain from farm-to-fork, and explore opportunities for meeting their availability through increased production, enhanced trade and improved efficiency.

1. Changing Consumption Pattern of Pulses
in India: Past Trends and Projections
Supported by CRP 4: A4NH
P.Kumar and P K Joshi
International Food Policy Research Institute
South Asia Regional Office, New Delhi 110 012 India
E-mail: pkumariari@gmail.com
Web: www.ifpri.org

2. Backdrop
A
gradual shift is taking place
from traditional diets, dominated
by cereals and pulses, to a
dietary mix rich in high-value
commodities (livestock,
horticultural and processed
food).
 Pulse scenario is changing
International Food Policy Research Institute

3. Outline
Changing dietary pattern
Changing consumption of pulses
Sources of protein and contribution of
pulses
Demand and supply projections and
gap
International Food Policy Research Institute

4. Data and approach

Data source




Classification of NSS data
Three income groups




NSSO from 1988 to 2009
Period of study: 1988-2009
Low income (Below poverty
line)
Middle income (PL to 150%
PL)
High income (above 150% PL)
Demography


Rural and Urban
State level
International Food Policy Research Institute

Classification by Farm
Size





<0.5 ha Sub-marginal
0.5-1.0 ha Marginal
1.0-2.0 ha Small farms
2.0-4.0 ha Medium
Farm
> 4.0 ha Large farms

5. I
CHANGING DIETARY PATTERN
International Food Policy Research Institute

6. Dietary diversification (kg/capita/annum)
Food item
Rice
Wheat
Other cereals
Total cereals
Pulses
Sugar
Edible oils
Vegetables
Fruits
Milk
1988
2009
% change
88.3
56.7
22.1
167.1
11.8
11.4
5.2
52.4
12.1
53.3
79.6
46.8
6.8
133.2
8.4
9.2
8.4
87.2
16.5
63.8
-9.9
-17.5
-69.1
-20.3
-28.8
-19.9
62.5
66.4
35.9
19.5

7. Dietary diversification (kg/capita/annum)
Food
Commodity
Rice
Wheat
Other cereals
Total cereals
Pulses
Edible oils
Vegetables
Fruits
Milk
Sugar
Meat, Fish & eggs
Poor households
1988
2009
change,%
73.7
46.8
25.3
71.1
42.8
7.7
-3.5
-8.6
-69.5
Rich households
1988
2009 change,
%
99.6
82.5
-17.1
67.3
49.1
-27.0
18.8
5.8
-69.2
145.8
121.6
-16.6
185.6
137.4
-26.0
7.8
3.1
38.3
5.3
18.5
6.6
3.2
5.6
5.5
62.7
5.0
22.1
5.7
4.1
-28.1
78.1
63.6
-6.0
19.1
-13.1
25.4
16.4
7.6
68.5
21.1
95.9
17.2
9.3
10.3
10.2
102.6
24.8
91.7
11.3
13.9
-37.2
34.4
49.7
17.7
-4.4
-34.2
49.7

8. II
CHANGING PULSE CONSUMPTION

9. Annual per capita consumption of pulses (kg/annum)
Income
1988
%
2009
Change
Rural
• Low
• Medium
• High
• All
7.4
10.6
15.6
11.2
5.5
7.0
9.9
8.1
-25.5
-34.7
-36.1
-27.8
8.7
11.8
16.5
12.5
5.8
7.4
10.8
8.9
-33.2
-37.5
-34.6
-28.7
Urban
• Low
• Medium
• High
• All
• Pulse consumption of poor
(5.5 or 5.8 kg) is almost half
of rich (9.9 or 10.8 kg)
consumers
• Pulse consumption is
declining in all income
groups in rural and urban
– Decline is faster in urban than
rural
– Higher consumption in urban
than rural households

10. Dietary diversification of farmers (kg/capita/year)
20
15
10
5
Pulse consumption

16.6
11.5
9.3
7.9

0
< .5 ha
1-2 ha
1988
150
> 2 ha
2009
Milk consumption
96.5
100
50
0

10
8.5
115.7
48.1
30.6
68
49.9
< .5 ha
1-2 ha
1988
> 2 ha
2009
International Food Policy Research Institute
Pulse consumption declined in all
classes, more among large farmers
7.9 kg by marginal farmers than 10 kg
by large farmers
Milk consumption is more among
large farmers but increasing faster
in marginal farmers (63%) then
the large farmers (20%)

11. Consumer segmentation of pulses, 2009
( kg/capita/annum)
Low
High • Farmers in low
income category are
income income
Rural
5.5
9.9
Urban
5.8
10.8
Farmers
7.9
10.0
consuming more
pulses than the rural
& urban consumer
• All categories in
higher income are
consuming almost
same quantity

12. Product wise consumption of pulses (kg/capita/annum)
Year
1988
2009
% change
Chickpea
2.42
2.10
-13.22
Pigeon pea
3.11
2.15
-30.87
Green gram
1.58
1.02
-35.44
Lentil
1.70
1.16
-31.76
Black gram
1.24
0.93
-25.00
Yellow Peas
0.26
0.45
73.08
Soybean
0.04
0.08
100.00
Khesari (Lytherous)
0.31
0.49
58.06
All pulses & product
11.62
8.46
-27.19
Pigeon pea followed by chickpea are the most important pulses but their
consumption is declining
Consumption of cheap pulses (yellow pea, soybean and khesari) is increasing

13. Structural change in consumption of pulses in India
(% share of pulses in total pulses)
PulsesY
1988
2009
Change
2009 over
1988
Pigeon pea
26.8
25.4
-0.8
Chickpea
20.8
24.8
4.0
Lentil
14.6
13.7
-0.9
Green gram
13.6
12.1
-1.5
Black gram
10.7
11.0
0.3
Yellow peas
2.2
5.3
3.1

14. Major pulse consuming states
Pigeon pea
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Andhra Pradesh
Gujarat
Karnataka
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
Chickpea
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Uttarakhand
Rajasthan
Jharkhand
Lentil
•
•
•
•
Assam
Bihar
West Bengal
North-east states

15. III
PROTEIN INTAKE AND PULSE
CONTRIBUTION

16. Protein intake by incomegroup (g/capita/annum)
Income
Poor
Middle
1988
49.8
62.1
2009
47.8
58.9
% change
-4.3
-5.4
Rich
80.1
84.7
5.4
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• Protein intake among
2/3 of population is
very low & declining
• Among 1/3 rich
consumers protein
intake is slowly rising

17. Among farmers protein intake is rising except of
large farmers (g/capita/annum)
Farm-size
1988
2009
change,%
Sub-marginal (<0.5 ha)
60.1
66.7
11.1
Marginal (0.5-1.0 ha)
63.8
66.7
4.6
Small (1.0-2.0 ha)
67.5
69.5
3.0
Medium (2.0-4.0 ha)
72.5
73.5
1.3
Large (> 4 ha)
83.3
78.3
-6.0
All farms
68.7
69.0
0.5

18. Sources of protein in Indian diet across rural and
urban households (% share in total)
Household
type
Pulses
10.8
4.2
0.5
8.1
4.3
2.3
2009 52.4
7.3
5.2
0.6
9.0
6.9
18.5
1988 60.4
Urban
Vegetables Fruits
Milk
Meat, fish Processed
& eggs
food
Cereals
1988 69.8
Rural
Year
12.9
4.8
0.8 11.5
6.1
3.4
2009 42.1
7.4
4.8
0.7
7.1
28.7
9.1
• Cereals are the main source of protein (52.4%) but are declining overtime
in both rural and urban areas
• Share of pulses in protein is declining but that of milk, meat and
processed commodities is increasing.
• Processed food contributing protein 18% in rural and 29% in urban

19. Trends in protein intake from pulses
(g/capita/day)
Income group
Low income group (BPL)
Medium Income group
High income group
All
Low income group
Medium Income group
High income group
All
Low income group
Medium Income group
High income group
All
1988
Rural
9.3
10.5
12.0
10.8
Urban
11.2
12.8
14.1
12.9
India
9.9
11.1
12.7
11.5
2009
Change, %
(1988-2009)
6.8
7.2
7.6
7.3
-26.2
-31.6
-37.0
-32.2
7.6
7.7
7.2
7.4
-32.3
-39.3
-49.0
-43.2
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.4
-27.7
-33.8
-41.7
-35.9

20. IV
DEMAND-SUPPLY
PROJECTIONS 2030

21. Demand for pulses
•
•
•
•
Direct demand
Value added products
Seed
Miscellaneous
11.3 m t (69%)
3.7 m t (20%)
1.2 m t (7%)
1.8 m t (4%)

22. Demand elasticities of pulses by income group
Income
elasticity
Price
elasticity
Sum of
income and
price elasticity
Low income
0.500
-0.699
-0.199
Middle income
0.274
-0.530
-0.256
High income
0.098
-0.349
-0.251
All households
0.206
-0.456
-0.250
Income group
International Food Policy Research Institute

23. Yield response elasticities for pulses in India
Input price
Pulse
grains
Output
price (P)
w/P
b/P
m/P
r/P
i/P
All Pulses
0.1695
-0.0007
-0.0012
0.0020
-0.0013
0.0012
Chick pea
0.2348
-0.0011
-0.0125
0.0123
0.0015
-0.0001
Green
gram
0.2992
0.0024
0.0051
-0.0028
-0.0009
-0.0038
Pigeon
pea
0.1869
0.0004
0.0014
0.0023
-0.0021
-0.0020
Black
gram
0.1890
0.0058
-0.0116
0.0031
-0.0042
0.0069
International Food Policy Research Institute

24. Projected growth in production of pulse grains
in India:2010-2030
Commodity
S2: Baseline growth + 50% acceleration
in TFP growth by 2030
Baseline
scenario (S1)
2010
2020
2030
All Pulses
2.48
2.48
2.52
2.54
Chick pea
4.48
4.49
4.52
4.56
Green gram
3.12
3.13
3.24
3.38
Pigeon pea
2.23
2.25
2.44
2.57
Black gram
1.78
1.80
1.92
2.02
S3:Baseline growth + 50% deceleration in TFP
growth by 2030
All Pulses
2.48
2.47
2.43
2.40
Chick pea
4.48
4.48
4.44
4.40
Green gram
3.12
3.10
2.96
2.85
Pigeon pea
2.23
2.21
2.10
2.00
Black gram
1.78
1.77
1.69
1.62
International Food Policy Research Institute

25. Domestic production and demand under different scenarios
and trade potential of pulses in India:2010-2030
Year
Production
Pulse grains
Pulses
S1:Baseline scenario
Demand
Pulses
(Million tonnes)
DemandProduction gap
2010
16.17
14.55
18.02
-3.47
2020
20.65
18.59
21.87
-3.28
2030
26.38
23.74
26.58
-2.84
S2: Baseline scenario +50% TFP growth acceleration by the year 2030
2010
16.17
14.55
18.02
-3.47
2020
20.7
18.63
21.87
-3.24
2030
26.57
23.91
26.58
-2.67
S3: Baseline +50% TFP growth deceleration by the year 2030
2010
16.16
14.55
18.02
-3.47
2020
20.59
18.53
21.87
-3.34
2030
26.14
23.53
26.58
-3.05
International Food Policy Research Institute

26. Demand-supply projections for pulses, million tons
Year
Demand
Production
Deficit
2010
18.02
14.55
-3.47
2020
21.87
18.59
-3.28
2030
26.58
23.74
-2.84
International Food Policy Research Institute

27. Summary of key findings
• Similarity in patterns of decline in consumption of pulses
across demographic, income and farm size groups
• Decline in rate of pulses more in case of higher income
groups than lower income groups
• Decline rate of pulses more in case of larger farm sizes
than smaller farm sizes
• Increase in consumption of cheaper pulses like peas, soya
and Khesari (lathyrus)
• Demand of value added (processed) pulses is increasing
significantly
• Diversification towards protein sources (livestock and
processed food)
 Decline of pulses share in total intake of proteins
 Deficit of pulses projected around 3 million tonnes in future too.
International Food Policy Research Institute

28. Thank you
Thank you
Page 28