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Global Climate change & its impact on Indian Agriculture.

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Effect of global climate change on Indian agriculture is described in this slide show.

Effect of global climate change on Indian agriculture is described in this slide show.


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  • 1. Climate Change : Impacts on Indian Agriculture
    • Biswajit Biswal
    • Dept. of Soil Sc. & Agril. Chemistry
    • Institute of Agricultural Sciences
    • Banaras Hindu University
    • Varanasi
  • 2.
    • There was a country.People were happily living by fishing & other activities depending upon the surrounding sea.
    • Suddenly the sea begins to rise..Within a century..The whole island country sinks..Along with it sinks the 300000 lives..their Culture..& Heritage…
    • Some how some ambitious people had seen the future in advance.They had shelters in other countrie…They survived..along with them their legend…
  • 3.
    • Friends…This was not a story..The Country in Question is Maldives & the visionary is newly elected President Nasheed..
    • According to IPCC..There are 20 countries aroundworld.in the verge of extinction..Due to rise in sea level resulting from GLOBAL WARMING..
    • The last days of paradise are on….
    • What We aspire to give our great grand children is nothing but a world worth not living….
  • 4.
    • Its now Maldives….Days are not far..When India will be witnessing Such things….
    • Is this reality..???
    • Lets Ponder over it..
  • 5. INDIA AND AGRICULTURE
    • CONTEXT
    • Population : 1 billion +
    • % Share of Agri. in GDP : 34 % (1994), 42 % (1980)
    • Area under Agriculture : 50 % (160 mha)
    • Population dependent on Agriculture: 70%
    • Average farm size: : 1 to5 ha
    • Landless dependent on others
    • Total. Area Irrigated Prod Earnings % of GDP
    • (mha) (mha) (mt). (Rs.)
    • Rice 42 20 73 365 22
    • Wheat 24 21 57 208 12.6
  • 6. Current Issues in Agriculture
    • Overproduction in short-term, yet food insecurity for a large population
    • Stagnation/decline in yields
    • Diversification
    • Natural resource management- SOM decline, input use efficiencies, narrow genetic base
    • Quality and quantity of water resources
    • Profitability: Increasing cost and deceleration in TFP growth
  • 7. Emerging Scenario: Drivers of Agricultural Transformation
    • Increasing population leading to higher (and quality) demand of food
    • Increasing urbanization
    • Increasing rural migration -tenant farming, contract and cooperative farming
    • Increasing inter- and intra-sectoral competition for resources: land, water, energy, credit
    • Increasing globalization: removal of trade barriers, information and communication
    • New technologies: Biotechnology, space and information technology
    • Increasing privatization of agricultural extension
  • 8. Global climate change
    • Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years
    • GHG (CO 2 , methane, nitrous oxide) increase, caused by fossil fuel use and land use changes, main reasons.
    • Temperatures increase by 1.8-6.4 C by 2100 AD. Greater increase in rabi
    • Precipitation likely to increase in kharif
    • Snow cover is projected to contract
    • More frequent hot extremes, heavy precipitations
    • Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.
  • 9. Contribution of different sectors in world to climate change. (Sources of Greenhouse Gas emissions)
  • 10. What is the contribution of different sectors in India to climate change? (Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in India)
  • 11. What sectors of agriculture in India contribute to climate change?
  • 12. Estimates of Future Levels of CO 2
  • 13. Most of the greenhouse gas emissions are from the industrialized countries
  • 14. Climate Change Scenarios for India
  • 15. Other observations of change in global climate
    • Globally, hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent.
    • Frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas.
    • Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003.
  • 16. Other changes in global climate in future
    • Tropical cyclones to become more intense, with heavier precipitation.
    • Snow cover is projected to contract.
    • Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will become more frequent.
    • The projected sea level rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 meters.
  • 17. Impacts on Indian Agriculture –Literature
    •    Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase of 2 o C in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5 o C increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha.
    •      Rao and Sinha (1994) – showed that wheat yields could decrease between 28 to 68% without considering the CO 2 fertilization effects; and would range between +4 to -34% after considering CO 2 fertilization effects.
    • Aggarwal and Sinha (1993) – using WTGROWS model showed that a 2 o C temperature rise would decrease wheat yields in most places.
    •     Lat et al. (1996) – concluded that carbon fertilization effects would not be able to offset the negative impacts of high temperature on rice yields.
    •    Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for every one degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%.
    • Aggarwal et al. (2002) – using WTGROWS and recent climate change scenarios estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops.
    • All these studies focused only on agronomic impacts of climate change.
  • 18. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India Source: Aggarwal et al. (2002)
  • 19. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture
    • Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-40% by 2100.
    • Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1 o C increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons. Loss only 1-2 million tons if farmers could plant in time .
    • Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard
    • Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability
  • 20. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture
    • Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N. America, and negative impacts on us
    • Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production
    • Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.
    • Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and insects
  • 21. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture
    • Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; and result in higher emissions
    • Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.
    • Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production
  • 22. Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Rice Yields in North India
  • 23. Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Wheat Yields in North India
  • 24. Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Rainfed Wheat Yields in Central India
  • 25. Climate Variability and Climate Change- Another Driver in Agriculture
    • Increase in CO 2
    • Increase in temperature
    • Change in precipitation
    • Sea level rise
    • Variability and extreme events such as floods and drought
  • 26. Projected beneficial impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture
    • Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard
    • New ‘flooded’ areas may become available for fisheries in coastal regions
    • Other potential benefits, if any, need to be characterized
  • 27. Impacts on Agriculture
    • May alter spatial and temporal demands and supply by impacting:
      • Food production
      • Stability and sustainability
      • Employment and Autonomy
      • Profitability
      • Trade & economy
      • Global financial Crisis
  • 28. Adaptation and mitigation framework: Need to consider emerging scenario
    • Greater demand for (quality) food; yields need to increase by 30-50% by 2030
    • Increasing urbanization and globalization
    • Increasing competition from other sectors for land, energy, water and capital
    • Climate change a continuous process; greater focus on short-term actions on adaptation and mitigation
  • 29. Key adaptation strategies
    • Assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks
    • Intensifying food production systems
    • Improving land and water management
    • Enabling policies
    • Strengthening adaptation research
  • 30. Information Needs- Scenarios
    • Changes in CO 2 with time
    • Spatial and temporal changes in temperature and rainfall
    • Impact on groundwater and surface water availability, floods and droughts, sea level rise
  • 31. Impact assessment- Information Needs
    • Where, how and at what cost food (crops, livestock products and fish) can be produced to meet the increasing demand and/or what alternative technologies would be needed to meet the desired production targets?
    • Which region and the social group would be more affected as a consequence of global environmental change?
  • 32. Impact assessment- Information Needs
    • Which pests will start migrating to currently uninfected areas?
    • How does climate change affect the quality of cereals, spices, medicinal plants, tea and coffee?
    • How inter-state and international trade of different commodities is likely to be affected by global warming considering differential impacts on competing states and countries?
  • 33. Adaptations to Climate Change
    • New varieties: drought/heat resistant
    • New farm management practices
    • Change in land use
    • Watershed management
    • Agri-insurance
  • 34. India Adapting to Global Warming by Changed Management of Wheat in North
  • 35. Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on Environment
    • Agro-forestry systems
    • Resource conservation technologies
    • Enriching soil organic matter
    • Biofuels
  • 36. Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on Environment : Information Needs
    • Can alternate land use systems such as plantation crops and agroforestry increase carbon sequestration and yet meet food demand?
    • How much area can be taken out from agriculture for forestry; where and what policy measures would be needed?
    • How much carbon is conserved by limited tillage options? For how long and in which regions?
    • What policies and technologies would encourage the farmers to enrich organic matter in the soil and thus improve soil health?
  • 37. Conclusions
    • Climate change is a reality
    • Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses due to heat, erratic weather, and decreased irrigation availability
    • Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts
    • These need research, funding, and policy support
    • Costs of adaptation and mitigation are unknown but likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher
    • Start with ‘no-regrets’ adaptation options
  • 38.
    • Climate change…Is it the Beginning of the end..??
    • The earth is heating..So is the environment..
    • Now..Its Upto Us..What We can Do..??
  • 39.
    • Come Forward..
    • Join hands..
    • Save Agriculture..to sustain ourselves..
  • 40. Thank You