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Effective Decision Making

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A book review on the book of John Adair,titled Effective decision making presented by Dr. Helal Uddin Ahmed, Bangladeshi doctor works in psychiatry, BSMMU, Bangladesh.

A book review on the book of John Adair,titled Effective decision making presented by Dr. Helal Uddin Ahmed, Bangladeshi doctor works in psychiatry, BSMMU, Bangladesh.

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  • 1. Welcome
  • 2. EFFECTIVE Decision Making
    • Presented by
    • Dr. Helal Uddin Ahmed BSMMU
    • [email_address]
  • 3. EFFECTIVE Decision Making
    • john adair
    • Chair of Leadership Studies United Nations System Staff College in Turin.
    • Former visiting Professor of Leadership Studies
    • University of Exeter
    • &
    • International consultant to a wide variety of organizations in
    • BUSINESS, EDUCATION & HEALTH
  • 4.  
  • 5. Some works of John Adair
  • 6.  
  • 7. Contents What is Decision Making Know your mind Steps to making Decision Three Families of ability Introduction Imaginative thinking Concept Integrity & valuing Thinking Summary Creativity Arguing Barriers to effective decision Options Using your depth mind Effective decision Intuition
  • 8.  
  • 9.  
  • 10.  
  • 11. Introduction
    • The mental movements which leads to decisions:
    • In a word
    • THINKING
    • Deciding implies choice from several- or many- possibilities. Thinking is the preliminary work of weighing up the pros and cons for each course of action.
    • A decisive person is one who has the power to stop thinking and start acting.
  • 12. Effective Decision Making: Management context
    • 1976 a questionnaire was sent to 200 business leaders.
    • Ques: What is the most valuable attributes at the top level management?
    • Ans: “ability to take decision”
  • 13. What is Decision Making?
    • Decision making is the cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among alternatives.
    • It begins when we need to do something but we do not know what.
    • Examples: Shopping, deciding what to eat, What to wear, when to sleep, etc..
  • 14. Five points plan for decision making Define Objectives Collect information Develop options Evaluate and decide Implement 1 3 2 1 4 5
  • 15.
    • Specifying aim & objectives
    • Having recognized the need for a decision
    Define Objectives
  • 16. Objective
  • 17. Collect information
    • Collecting & Organizing data
    • Checking facts & opinions
    • Identifying possible causes
    • Establishing time constraints & other criteria
  • 18. Information
  • 19. Develop options
    • Listing possible courses of action
    • Generating ideas
  • 20. Options
  • 21.
    • Listing pros and cons
    • Examining the consequences
    • Measuring against criteria
    • Trials
    • Testing against objective
    • Selecting the best
    Evaluate and decide
  • 22. Evaluate and decide
  • 23. Implement
    • Acting to carry out the decision
    • Monitoring the decision
    • Reviewing
  • 24. Implement
  • 25. A decision making model Sense Effects Define Objectives Collect Information Monitor Consequences Implement Evaluate & Decide Develop Options Sensing effects means having the awareness which picks up the signs and symptoms of existing problem.
  • 26. KNOW YOUR MIND
    • Improve your decision making ability
    • By
    • sharpening the thinking tools which nature and education have provided.
  • 27.
    • Human brain contains around 10,000,000,000 neurons.
    • According to scientist we loss about 10,000 neurons/day.
    • But at 80 years of age we lost only 3% of brain capacity.
    • There are relationship between mental activity and brains chemistry and anatomy.
    • Our mind has almost limitless potentials.
    • Brain is the most powerful biological super computer.
    Brain power
  • 28. 3 families of abilities Families of abilities The Analyzers The Valuers The Synthesizers The mind has several different ways of working and they can be called families of abilities
  • 29. The Analyzers
    • Analyzers = greek verb means unloosen or break up.
    • Separate a whole into it’s component parts.
    • They can resolve anything complex into it’s simple elements.
  • 30. The Synthesizer
    • Reverse of analyzing.
    • Components/parts are assembled together.
  • 31. The Valuers
    • The valuers revolve around the perception of value, worth or significance.
    • They include all form of judging, criticizing and evaluating.
  • 32. Thinking
    • Mind is one : Thinking & Emotions often contrasted.
    • Most powerful emotions lie dormant in our mind.
    • Control your emotions in rational way.
    Emotions Thinking
  • 33. A good ANALYTICAL mind
    • Establishing the relations of the parts to each other and to the whole.
    • Finding the true cause or causes of the problem.
    • Identifying the issue at stake- the ‘either-or’.
    • Discovering a law in nature.
    • Searching for the principles behind experience.
  • 34. For a good ANALYTICAL mind
    • Ask questions yourself.
    • Remember the magic words: Who? Which? Why? Why not? When Where? How?
    ?
  • 35. Synthesizer: Holistic Thinker
    • Holism: The tendency in nature to produce wholes by ordering or grouping various units together.
  • 36. Holistic Approach
    • Prefers to deal with wholes
    • Dislike overmuch analysis
    • Feeling no compulsive desire to take things or people to bits to see what they are made of.
    • The holist sees the woods not the tree
  • 37. Gestalt school of psychology
    • The whole is always more than sum of its parts, just as melody is more than its separate notes.
    • Relationship between the events- not the events themselves
    • No events occurs in isolation
    • Intuitive grasp of overall significance of behavior is more desirable then the mechanical explanation.
  • 38. Basic laws of Gestalt Psychologist
    • Figure-ground relationship
    • Similarity
    • Proximity
    • Closure
    • Good continuation
    • Simplicity.
    • Subjective contour
  • 39. Ex: Good continuation
    • C
    • A B
    • D
  • 40. Ex: Good continuation C A B D
  • 41. Ex: Subjective contour
    • The contour of a white triangle is perceived even though it doesn’t exist.
  • 42. Ex: Simplicity
  • 43. Ex: Simplicity
  • 44. Ex: Simplicity
  • 45. Ex: Simplicity
  • 46. Ex: Simplicity
  • 47. Ex: Simplicity
  • 48. Ex: Simplicity
  • 49. Ex: Simplicity The law of Prägnanz
  • 50. Ex: Closure
  • 51. Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman
  • 52. Ex: Closure Do you Identify the Person?
  • 53. Mohondas Koram Chand Gandhi
  • 54. Ex: Proximity The closer objects near each other tend to be grouped together (Ehrenstein, 2004) Left circles are grouped vertically and rights are horizontally .
  • 55. Ex: Symmetry Most people see vertical column of circle and square
  • 56.
    • Ex: Figure - Ground
      • Viewers will perceive an object (figure) and a surface (ground) even in shapes are grouped together (Ehrenstein, 2004).
    (Chang, 2002)
  • 57. British Holistic Medical Association:1983
    • Principles :
    • Mind and Body are a unity and should be treated as such
    • Nature heals, we help
    • What works with one person, may not necessarily works with another
  • 58. Thinking in Concept
    • A concept is a way of categorizing or classifying the people, objects and events in the environment. (Anglin ,1977).
    • Natural concepts & Artificial ( logical) concept.
  • 59. Artificial (Logical) Concept
    • Abstract Thinker
    • Visionary
    • Criticism:  difficult to understand  remote from apprehension  insufficiently factual  theoretical, detached  impersonal
  • 60. Development of Concepts Birds: Wings Feathers Fly Animal: Eats Breathes Crow: Wings Feathers Fly Black color Parrot: Wings Feathers Fly Green color Fish: Fin Gills Swims Hilsha: Fin Gills Swims Not Dangerous Piranha: Fin Gills Swims Dangerous
  • 61. Foundation of good Decision Making
    • Quality of concept
    • Ability to develop concept
    • Aim to have clear concept
    • Define the concept– as well as
    • Open to new light on them from unexpected source
  • 62. Concept of a vehicle
    • Good Concept :
  • 63. Concept of a vehicle
    • Bad Concept :
  • 64. Regarding concept
    • “ No great improvements in the lot of mankind are possible, until a great change takes place in the fundamental constitution of their modes of thought.”
    • - John Stuart Mill
  • 65. Imaginative Thinking
    • Our mind have a fundamental visual capacity, we not only see things but we can shut our eyes and remember the picture of what we have seen . That is one pole of Imagination.
    • The other pole is that we don’t see before . That have no existence but we can visualize with ‘third eye’.
  • 66. Two Polls of Imagination
    • What we have seen
    Imaginative Thinking What we don’t see before
  • 67. Imaginative Thinking
    • “ I can see the whole of it at a single glance in my mind, as if it were a beautiful painting or a handsome human being”
    • ------W A Mozart
  • 68.
  • 69. Imaginative Abilities
    • Recalling
    • Visualizing
    • Creating
    • Foreseeing
    • Fantasy
  • 70. Thinking and Imagination
    • Thinking without imagination
    • Imagination without thinking
    • Imaginative thinking
  • 71. Develop Imaginative Thinking
    • Changing your self image- the way you see yourself.
    • If you don’t apply imagination to yourself-you are unlikely to apply it in life.
    Most Potent way of unlocking the doors of the practical imagination is changing self image
  • 72. Read it
  • 73. Read it
  • 74. What do you understand by this picture
  • 75. IT’s TIME TO TEASE YOUR BRAIN
  • 76. Thinking Beyond Imagination You know that your looking at a real building right? The Crooked House was built in 2004 as an addition at a popular shopping center, and is a major tourist attraction in Sopot, Poland. what happenswhen someone sees this building for the first time in their life?
  • 77. Integrity &Valuing
    • “ Integrity is the quality which makes people trust you.”
    • --Lord Slim
    • At the core of integrity lies the value of truth. The common synonym is honesty- the refusal to lie, steal or deceive in any way.
  • 78.
    • A good decision maker can perceive the truth in a situation.
    • Good decision making ability rests upon 2 pillars: 1. Establishing the truth 2. Knowing what to do
    Integrity &Valuing
  • 79.
    • Policy for thinkers: 1. Always assume that truth exists 2. Discover the truth- rather to invent it.
    Integrity &Valuing Einstein's theory: One man’s now is another man’s then .
  • 80. Valuing in Perspective
    • Valuing is a dimension in all thinking rather than discrete function.
    • In certain mental situation it is playing the leading part- such as judgement, criticizing, interviewing someone etc.
  • 81. Intuition
    • 6 th sense
    “ I just know ”
  • 82.
    • Power or faculty of immediately apprehending that something in the case.
    • Apparently it is done without intervention of any reasoning process.
    • No deductive or inductive step by step reasoning.
    • No conscious analysis of the situation.
    • No employment of the imagination.
    • Just a quick and ready insight.
    Intuition
  • 83. Trusting Your Intuition
    • Intuition is not intellectually respectable but- if anybody has an iron grip on his mind then he or she should trust on his/her intuition.
    Researchers said Einstein have been intuitive in his works.
  • 84. Trusting Your Intuition
    • There is no logical way to discovery of these elemental laws. There is only the way of intuition, which is helped by a feeling for the order lying behind the appearance.
    • ----Einstein
    Researchers commented Einstein have been intuitive in his works.
  • 85. Emotion & Intuition
    • Emotion and intuition have their sources close together in the hinterland of the brain.
    • The negative emotions of fear and anxiety can express themselves in intuition.
    • Ex: a nervous passenger may have intuition that his flight to Coxes-bazar will crash and he transfer to another one.
  • 86. Emotion & Intuition
    • A positive emotion can also lead to wishful intuition.
    • Ex: A man or woman in love have intuition about the character of the adored lover which turn out to be groundless.
  • 87.
    • The success rate of this type of anxiety intuition or love intuition is remarkably low.
    • Before intuitive- be sure you are a physically and emotionally fit.
    • Mountaineers are aware that decision taken in a state of exhaustion drop dramatically in quality.
    Emotion & Intuition If you are tired, best to think logically what to do- and not to rely upon your intuition.
  • 88. Things to Remember
    • Pre-occupation or false assumption
    • is not intuition
  • 89.  
  • 90.  
  • 91. Using Your Depth Mind Unconscious mind Preconscious mind Conscious mind Subconscious mind
  • 92. Consciousness
    • Consciousness: The sum total of all the external stimuli and internal mental events of which we are aware at any given time.
    • Stream of consciousness is the continual fluctuation between external and internal events.
  • 93. Subconscious Mental Activity
    • Subconscious processes are mental or behavioral activities that take place outside conscious awareness.
    • Sigmund Freud further subdivided this subconscious mind into— 1. Preconscious processes 2. Unconscious processes
  • 94. Preconscious & Unconscious processes
    • Preconscious processes: That can be brought into awareness by paying attention to them.
    • Unconscious processes: These are more or less permanently unavailable to consciousness.
  • 95. How to activate your depth mind
    • Make lots of decision in your field.
    • See relation between your decision- despite differences of time ,place and scale.
    • Look on your brain as a mental computer
    • Avoid mental laziness
    • Few people are willing to make the effort- ‘the many fail, the one succeeds’. ---Lord Thomson
  • 96. Options
    • Possibilities are not options.
    • Decision making needs- collecting, assessing, and choosing from a set of options.
    • Enemy of good options- false assumptions about resources and limitations.
    • Apply creative thinking
    • Calculated risk and assessment of probabilities.
  • 97. Developing Options for Decision Making
    • ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
            A Possibilities Feasible options Situation after- 3,4, 5 & 7 have been eliminated The essential issue, the either or choice Choice Decision Action/Implementation
  • 98. Arguing
    • Argument is the debate of high quality upon the reasons for and against the various courses of action.
    • The application of argumentative thinking depends upon situation, matter under consideration and temperament of the good manager.
    • Wish to here other points of view- because person may be partly perfect or fully convinced .
  • 99. Wrong way to arguing
    • Argumentum ad hominem Playing the man –not the ball.
  • 100.  
  • 101. Wrong way to arguing
    • Argumentum ad invidium: An argument to envy or prejudice , i.e. appealing to those emotions.
    • Argument by analogy: Search similarity, metaphor.
    • Buck-passing (de-shouldering) in the form of rationalizing.
    • Ignoratio elenchi: Drawing irrelevant conclusion, ignoring at the matter at issue.
  • 102. Wrong way to arguing
    • Reduction to absurdity: Attempt to disprove a proposal by producing something that is both obviously deducible from it and contrary to common sense.
    • The no decision/no action:
  • 103.
    • All and some: Too more statistics and over generalization.
    • Middle of the road arguments:
    Wrong way to arguing
  • 104. Creativity
    • Creativity involves the generation of new ideas.
    • It should be:
      • Novel : unique, new, innovative, different, imaginative, non-typical, unusual.
      • Useful : responds to a need, has some utility or value, answers a question.
      • Understandable : not the result of chance, reproducible
  • 105. Creativity
    • Creativity Needs:
        • Skill: Learned capacity or talent to carry out pre-determined results.
        • Talent: Natural endowments of a person.
        • Personality: Patterns of relatively enduring characteristics of human behavior
  • 106. What is effective decision
    • Effective decision is not necessarily a perfect decision ( if such a thing exists?)
    • It should be the best decision after considering all.
    • It does not effective in the sense of intention- effective in the sense of outcome.
  • 107. Check list For an effective decision maker
    • Have I defined the objectives? 
    • Do I have sufficient information? 
    • What are the feasible options? 
    • Have I evaluate them correctly? 
    • Does this decision feel right now and I have begun to implement it? 
  • 108.  
  • 109. What is an Effective Thinker
    • Skill of analyzing, synthesizing, valuing
    • Committed to think it through
    • Knows when and how use the depth mind
    • Receptive to intuition
    • Imaginative
    • Open to new ideas
    • Able to link his mind with others in the search for truth .
  • 110. Making an inventory of your skills
    • Know thyself
  • 111. Barriers to Effective Decision Making “ Successful leaders have the courage to take action while others hesitate.” - John C. Maxwell
  • 112. Barriers to Effective Decision Making
    • Hasty - Making quick decisions without having much thought.
    • Narrow - Decision making is based on very limited information.
    • Scattered - Our thoughts in making decisions are disconnected or disorganized.
    • Fuzzy - The lack of clarity on important aspects of a decision causes us to overlook certain important considerations.
  • 113.
    • Craving for unanimous approval
    • Trying to make decisions which are outside your realm of authority.
    • Not following the 5 steps plan.
    • No imagination- full of mechanical thinking
    • Only imagination- no scientific approach
    • Not fit physically or mentally
    Barriers to Effective Decision Making
  • 114.  
  • 115. Summary Sharpening the thinking tools Know your mind Objective Collect information Develop Options Evaluate & Decide Implementation Five points plan for Decision making Analyzers Synthesizers Valuers Three Families of ability Cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among alternatives. What is Decision Making
  • 116. Summary contd. Thinking without imagination Imagination without thinking Develop Imaginative thinking Imaginative thinking Artificial concept Integrating concept Concept Always assume that truth exists Discover the truth- rather to invent it. Integrity & valuing Thinking & emotions Analytical mind Holistic approach Gestalt laws Thinking
  • 117. Summary contd. Need for creativity Creativity Arguing Wrong way to arguing Arguing Hasty, Narrow, Scattered, Fuzzy Barriers to effective decision Developing options Options Conscious mind Pre-conscious mind Unconscious mind Using your depth mind Effective decision is not perfect decision always Effective decision Trusting your intuition Emotion & intuition Pre-occupation is not intuition Intuition
  • 118. The Train to Bangladesh 2020 BANGLADESH 1971 BANGLADESH 2009 The Decision Makers
  • 119.  
  • 120.
    • Thank You

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