Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
  • Like
Financial Network Analysis and Visualisation - Seminar at NYU/Stern 5 April 2011
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Now you can save presentations on your phone or tablet

Available for both IPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Financial Network Analysis and Visualisation - Seminar at NYU/Stern 5 April 2011

  • 1,489 views
Published

Financial Network Analysis and Visualisation - Seminar at NYU/Stern 5 April 2011

Financial Network Analysis and Visualisation - Seminar at NYU/Stern 5 April 2011

Published in Economy & Finance
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
1,489
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1

Actions

Shares
Downloads
27
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Financial Network Analysis and VisualisationKimmo Soramäkiwww.financialnetworkanalysis.comNew York University, Stern School of Business5th April 2011
  • 2. Growinginterest in networks
    2004
    2003
    2003
  • 3. “... need for new and fundamental understanding of the structure and dynamics of economic networks.”
    “Meltdown modeling -Could agent-based computer models prevent another financial crisis?”
    “Is network theory the best hope for regulating systemic risk?”
    Science, July 2009
    CFA Magazine, July 2009
    Nature, August 2009
  • 4. We are talking about systemic risk ≠ systematic risk
    News articles mentioning “systemic risk”, Source: trends.google.com
    The risk of disruption to a financial entity with spillovers to the real economy
    Risk of a crisis that stresses key intermediation markets and leads to their breakdown, which impacts the broader economy and requires government intervention
    Risk that critical nodes of a financial network cease to function as designed, disrupting linkages
    -> some chain of events that starts or gets magnified in the finance sector and makes us all worse off
  • 5. “Too big to fail”
    +
    “Too interconnected to fail”
  • 6. Weneedsomecartography
    19th century reconstruction of Eratosthenes' map of the known world, c.194 BC.
  • 7. Ontheinterconnections
    Paul Butler, December 14, 2010
  • 8. Paymentflows in Fedwire
    Soramaki, K, M.L. Bech, J. Arnold, R.J. Glass and W.E. Beyeler (2007), “The topology of interbank payment flows”, Physica A, Vol. 379, pp 317-333, 2007.
  • 9. Overnight lending networks
    Italian money market
    Federal funds
    Bech, M.L. and Atalay, E. (2008), “The Topology of the Federal Funds Market”. ECB Working Paper No. 986. 
    Iori G, G de Masi, O Precup, G Gabbi and G Caldarelli (2008): “A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278
  • 10. Network theory and related fields
    Financial Network Analysis
    Social Network Analysis
    Network Science
    NETWORK THEORY
    Graph & Matrix Theory
    Computer Science
    Biological Network Analysis
  • 11. Main premise of network analysis: Structure of links between nodes matters
    • The properties and behaviour of a node cannot be analysed on the basis its own properties and behaviour alone.
    • 12. To understand the behaviour of one node, one must analyse the behaviour of nodes that may be several links apart in the network.
    • 13. Bottom up approach. Generalize and describe.
    • 14. Financial context: network of interconnected balance sheets
    • 15. Should we let the next Lehman fail?
  • Systemic importance = “centrality”
    Degree: number of links
    Closeness: distance to other nodes via shortest paths
    Betweenness: number of shortest paths going through the node
    Eigenvector: nodes that are linked by/toother important nodes are more central
    Markov: probability that a randomprocess is at a given node
  • 16. Centrality depends on network process
    Trajectory: geodesic paths, paths, trails or walks
    Transmission: parallel/serial duplication or transfer
    Source: Borgatti (2004)
  • 17. The road ahead
    We need better models of systemic risk and contagion
    We will have much more frequent and granular data
    We need better tools that can run the new models with the new data
  • 18. Open source project with a commercial support option
    Sponsored by 
    Norges Bank
    European Central Bank
    Bank of England
    Version 2.0 will be released in April.
  • 19. Objectives of FNA
    Provide a tool for time series analysis of network data in finance
    Integrate data analysis, visualization and exploration
    Provide a platform for building agent based and simulation models
    Make advances in research available to policy
  • 20. Roots
    Bof-PSS2
    Bank of Finland, 1997-
    Payment system simulator
    Used in ~60 central banks
    Loki
    Sandia National Laboratories , 2004-
    Toolkit for network analysis and ABM
  • 21. The big picture
    Transaction analysis
    Network analysis
    Simulation models
    File input/output
    File input/output
    File input/output
    Generate
    Cascadingfailures
    Operate
    Extract
    Edit
    Payment simulation
    Statistics
    Algorithms
    Algorithms
    Explore
    Systemic risk
    Transaction database
    Graph database
    Interfaces: Command line,REST, GWT
    Client applications: web, external programs, …
    Run-time visualization
    Visual explorer
    Charts and network layouts
  • 22. Thank you
    More information:
    www.financialnetworkanalysis.com
    Contact us: kimmo.soramaki@fna.fi