Analysis of risk and uncertainityPresentation Transcript
Analysis of risk and uncertainty Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
The lack of certainty, A state of having limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe existing state or future outcome, more than one possible outcome. Uncertainty Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
A state of uncertainty where some possible outcomes have an undesired effect or significant loss. Risk Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
It’s a technique to identify and assess factors that may jeopardize the success of a project or achieving a goal. It helps to define preventive measures to reduce the probability of these factors from occurring. It identify countermeasures to successfully deal with these constraints. What is Risk analysis Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
Phases of risk analysis Initial workshop(s) Identifying The Risk Quantifying The Risk Risk Analysis Presenting The Results Beyond Presentation Preliminary quantification Focus in on signifi cant risks Preliminary modelling Detailed workshops and interviews Further risk modelling Using the analysis... Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
The initial workshop sessions held to identify the risks. The output of the identification exercise: the risk register. The use of existing models to identify risks. Identifyingtherisks Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
The output from the risk identification phase is normally a risk register; this is a document that contains some or all of the following for each risk. · generic risk - the general heading the risk falls under, e.g. construction risks. · specific risk - the particular risk being considered, e.g. bad weather delays construction. Risk register Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
A brief commentary on which risks should be quantified. A discussion of the theoretical background to quantifying risks. The benefits of separating risks out. A review of the issues that arise when quantifying risks with experts. Quantifyingrisks Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
It is a technique that takes the distributions that have been specified on the inputs to the model, and uses them to produce a probability distribution of the output of interest. It does this by running through the following sequence of actions as many times as the user specifies. Industrial analysis simulation Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
Identifying the relative significance of the risks relating to each input is an important step in risk analysis: once the significant risks have been identified more time can be spent on these, at the expense of the less important ones. It may be necessary to revisit the assumptions around the significant risks, and to do more research. Also, if a small number of risks dominate all others they should be disaggregated into smaller components. Identifying the significant risks Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
Graphical presentation. Statistical measures. Presenting it in English. Presenting the results Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
In attempting to value risk there are two measures that can be considered: · The expected value of the risk. · The range of uncertainty. Valuing risk Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
In practice, it is often the case that we are not interested in the risk around one cost, or even total cost. Usually, it is some other measure of project return, such as net present value (NPV), that is important. It might seem obvious that a distribution of NPVs would provide useful additional information about the risks in a project. What does a distribution of NPVs mean? Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
Risk analysis is an integral part of the PFI procurement process, and we outline below the specific requirements for including risk within PFI transactions, from the procurer’s (i.e. the public sector’s) viewpoint. Risk analysis Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
Intelligent Software for Business Planning Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
The concepts of closeness to the core business and market attractiveness can be combined to analyse the risk of investing in new offerings. The proximity of the new offering to the core business is measured by its proximity to current offerings and current markets. Description of the Model Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
The expert system will position your enterprise on the chart based upon your description of:
familiarity with the materials
suppliers bargaining power
threat of substitutes
threat of new entrants
bargaining power of the buyers
You can trace through the supporting analysis and its conclusions, adjusting your input until you are satisfied your description accurately characterizes your enterprise. Characterize Your Enterprise Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.
Analysis of Your Enterprise Position Sooraj R, DMS, SOM, PU.