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Local market presentation 4 28-11

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Market Presentation of cox residential.

Market Presentation of cox residential.

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  • 1. Charlotte Real Estate A Factual Overview in a Time of Uncertainty By: Eric J Cox, Realtor® Cox Residential2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 1
  • 2. About Eric J Cox: US Marine Corps combat veteran and author, Eric J Cox understands what it takes to accomplish missions (goals). Cox was nominated for the Realtor Rookie of the Year award following his inaugural year and has since risen to the top 1% of brokers in the Charlotte and surrounding areas with over $6MM in closed sales in last years "down" market alone. Cox branched out in Feb of 11 and launched Cox Residential. Knowledge, experience and work ethic aside, Cox attributes his success to his genuine ability to Listen and Understand his clients. Honors & Credentials Community Involvement • Licensed in NC •  Our Forgotten Warriors – Vice President • Top Producer •  Soldier’s Angels (volunteer) • National Association of Realtors (NAR) •  Operation Homefront (volunteer) • North Carolina Association of Realtors (NCAR) •  Honor Them Foundation (member) • Charlotte Regional Realtor Association (CRRA) •  Operation PTSD (member) • Charlotte Multiple Listing Service (CMLS) •  Veterans Help Network (member) • 2010 Government Affairs Committee (CRRA) •  Iraq & Afghanistan Veterans of America (member) • CRRA Vane Mingle Rookie of the Year Nominee •  CombatVets.org (member) • Charlotte Style Magazine Top 25 Most Stylish •  USA Cares (member) People in Charlotte (emphasis on career success) •  Home Sweet Home Campaign (member)2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 2
  • 3. Seasonal Home Sales Cycle 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Real estate cycles every year. The market begins picking up during the Spring selling season and continues to build momentum through the summer months often driven by children’s school status. After August, sales taper off and decline until after the holiday season.2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 3
  • 4. 3 Types of Markets —  Buyers Market —  More than 7 Months of Inventory —  Sellers Market —  Less than 5 Months of Inventory —  Equilibrium —  Between 5 – 7 Months of Inventory Months of Inventory Supply is defined as the total number of homes for sale in an area divided by the number of homes sold per month in that area. Market Transitions: —  National transitions occur slowly due to multiple markets and respective local economic conditions —  Local market transitions occur very quickly2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 4
  • 5. Mecklenburg County Housing Inventory 19.0 17.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 Equilibrium: Transition only lasted 9 months 5.0 3.0 1.0 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 MSI Trend2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 5
  • 6. Pricing : Up Market vs. Down Market Average Home Price Average Home Price Price Seller Wants Price Correction Price Correction Price Seller Wants When They Get It They Never Get It Time on Market Time on Market Eventually time will correct high pricing Seller ends up chasing the market down and make agents appear smart when when the home should have been priced success is practically inevitable. properly from the beginning.2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 6
  • 7. The Cost of Overpricing: Stable Market Declining Market Initial List Price Initial List Price Market Interest Fair Market Value Fair Mark et Value COST of overpricing Time on Market Time on Market Market interest is highest within the first 3 weeks on In a declining market, these characteristics are market. In a stable market, fair market value is stable. amplified. Additionally, homes that take price The salable price has to do with the psychology of reductions take 3 times longer to sell than homes buyer interest vs. elapsed time on market. priced properly from the beginning.2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 7
  • 8. Pricing Into the Market: Buyers’ Market Sellers’ Market Above Above Price vs. Comps Price vs. Comps Out of the market In the market Below Below In the market Great Poor Great Poor Condition vs. Comps Condition vs. Comps In our buyers’ market, only a small percentage In a sellers’ market, only a small percentage of homes - those in great condition priced of homes - those in the worst condition priced below the comps are IN the market. above the comps are OUT of the market.2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 8
  • 9. The Pond: Current Housing MarketNew Listings 12% of InventoryEnter the Pond FLOW Sell and Exit the Pond Best Value Shown & Offers Made SHOW No Man’s Shown but No Offers 24% of Land Inventory Almost always due to condition but may be slightly overpriced. STAGNANT MASS Not Being Shown OUT of 64% of Simply overpriced. the Market Inventory 2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 9
  • 10. Mecklenburg County Days on Market 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 DOM Trend2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 10
  • 11. CMLS Entire Area List-to-Close 170 Jan-11, 159.7 160 150 140 130 120 Sep-06, 113 110 100 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 List To Close Trend2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 11
  • 12. 1,000   2,000   3,000   4,000   5,000   6,000   7,000   8,000   9,000   10,000   0   Aug-­‐07   Nov-­‐07   Feb-­‐08   May-­‐08   Aug-­‐08   Nov-­‐08   Feb-­‐09   May-­‐09   $150,000  &  Under   Ac#ve   Aug-­‐09   Nov-­‐09   Feb-­‐10   Trend   May-­‐10   Aug-­‐10   Nov-­‐10   Feb-­‐11  2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Sold Jun-09 $150,000 & Under Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Trend Apr-10 CMLS Active vs. Sold $150,000 & Under Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-1012 Feb-11
  • 13. CMLS Active vs. Sold $150,001-$250,000 Active Sold  9,000 1,400  8,000 1,200  7,000 1,000  6,000 800  5,000 600  4,000 400  3,0002,000 200   Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 $150,001  -­‐  $250,000   Trend   $150,001 - $250,000 Trend 2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 13
  • 14. CMLS Active vs. Sold $250,001-$500,000 Active Sold9,500 9008,500 8007,500 7006,500 6005,500 5004,500 4003,500 3002,500 2001,500 100 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 $250,001 - $500,000 Trend $250,001 - $500,000 Trend 2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 14
  • 15. CMLS Active vs. Sold $500,000 + Active Sold5,000 3004,500 2504,0003,500 2003,0002,500 1502,0001,500 1001,000 50 500 0 0 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 $500,001 + Trend $500,001 + Trend 2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 15
  • 16. Timing the Market Home Prices Market Transition Point of Realization Time Markets are defined by past performance - no one can time a market. By the time a market is realized to have changed direction, it has already passed bottom or top for some time.2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 16
  • 17. CMLS Total Sales Volume vs. Avg Sale Price Total Sales Volume$12,000,000,000$10,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 $6,000,000,000 $4,000,000,000 $2,000,000,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Avg. Sales Price (Year) Total Sales Volume Trend $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Avg. Sales Price (Year) Trend 2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 17
  • 18. Mecklenburg County Average Sale Price 310000 290000 285000 270000 265400 Q3 10, 262500 250000 252300 230000 231000 210000 190000 170000 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q3 06 Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 102011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 18
  • 19. CMLS Average Monthly House Payment$1,550.00 Jun-07, $1,515.88$1,450.00$1,350.00$1,250.00$1,150.00$1,050.00 $950.00 Feb-11, $912.93 $850.00 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Avg Monthly Payment Trend 2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 19
  • 20. Opportunity of Our Market: Trade Up Sarah pays $180,000 for her home in 2007 Today her home is worth $153,000 (15% less) After selling & paying closing costs she gets $143,500 Her mortgage on $130,000 at 6.75% is $843/mo She nets $ 13,500 Due to real estate losses, she writes off $ 36,500 in taxes }  At 4.95% interest, payment remains at }  5% down payment is $13,500 $843/mo }  Purchase price is $270,000 }  Purchase price is $166,000 }  At 4.95% interest, payment increases }  Down payment is $8,300 to $1441/mo }  Cash leftover is $5,200 }  Assuming new house was purchased }  Assuming new house was purchased 15% 15% less than it was worth at the less than it was worth at the peak, new peak, new home is worth $318,000 home is worth $196,000 }  Assuming new house was purchased as }  Assuming new house was purchased as a a distressed sale 30% less, new home distressed sale 30% less, new home is is worth $386,000 worth $238,000 }  Potential equity = $129,500 }  Potential equity = $80,0002011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 20
  • 21. 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 7.00% Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Rate2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Trend Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-1121
  • 22. Hazard of Our Market: Affordability Current Market: +.5% Interest -.5% +1% Interest = Price price Home Price = $200,000 Home Price = $190,000 Home Price = $200,000 Interest Rate = 5% Interest Rate = 5.5% Interest Rate = 6% Monthly Payment $1020 Monthly Payment $1025 Monthly Payment $1139 Able to Afford $189,092 Able to Afford $179,0752011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 22
  • 23. Home Affordability at $1500/mo360,000340,000 •  Assumes Home Purchase Price at recorded 30-year fixed mortgage rates Oct-10, $321,729320,000 with 5% down payment •  Does not factor Taxes or Insurance300,000280,000 $287,546 $284,338 Jul-07, $244,944260,000 $272,044240,000220,000200,0002011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 23
  • 24. Financing Programs/ Options: —  Physician 100%LTV, no PMI —  100% up to $650k —  95% up to $1 Million —  90% over $1 Million —  FHA 96.5% LTV, Low Credit Score —  580 minimum credit —  Assumable (allows someone to take over your payments should rates increase) —  BB&T CHIP up to 100% LTV, no PMI —  FHA 203 Rehab —  Finance the cost of repairs into the loan —  Roll 6 months of payments into the loan if uninhabitable at purchase —  JUMBO loans up to 90% LTV, no PMI —  Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) —  When used properly, an excellent financial vehicle (the norm in many countries) —  Down Payment Assistance Programs —  Revitalization loans such as House Charlotte or HomePath —  Seller Financing2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 24
  • 25. The Cost of Owning vs. Renting2,300 The average monthly2,100 cost of owning vs.1,900 renting a typical 3 bed, 2.5 bath home in…1,700 PITI1,500 Rent1,3001,100 900 Additionally, homeowners are able to deduct: 700 •  mortgage interest 500 •  property taxes •  mortgage insurance (PMI) •  any maintenance or repairs * Owning figures above are not reduced by the annual tax savings …from their taxable income.2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 25
  • 26. Home Compare Rates Calculators News & Advice Life & Money Blogs Home CDs & Checking & Credit Debt College Mortgage Refinance Auto Insurance Retirement Taxes Find rates Equity Investments Savings Cards Management Finance advertisement Charlotte Leads the Recovery… Print E -mail NAR HOME VALUES STUDY Compare Mortgage Rates MORTGAGE Q1 2011 NAR best housing markets 30 yr fixed average Zip code: Zip Code 4.53% Product: 30 yr fixed About our rates Search NAR home values study » Top 5 housing markets on the rise Find the best mortgage rates in Charlotte, N.C. Previous 2 of 6 Next advertisement Mortgage Overnight Averages About this index Product Rate +/- Last week 30 yr fixed 4.53% 4.55% 15 yr fixed 3.77% 3.78% 5/1 ARM 3.11% 3.10% 30 yr fixed refi 4.52% 4.55% View rates in your area: Zip Code Search See the five markets where prices are falling fastest Source: NAR, Comparing Q1 2010 & Q1 2011 How does your neighborhood stack up? See how the nation fared Mortgage rates in your area Feeling lost in the mortgage wilderness? House prices went up in nearly one-quarter of metropolitan markets from the beginning of 2010 to the first quarter of 2011. Take a look at the five fastest-rising markets. Let Bankrates Mortgage Analysis be your GPS. This newsletter tracks our exclusive mortgage features, rates and tools. Delivered Thursdays. advertisement *Screenshot courtesy of Bankrate.com2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Related Links: 7 keys to FSBO success Pick a real estate agent Related Articles: Buying your first home Fixing 3 FHA loan snags 26 Closing a home sale fast 3 types of mortgage loans Fight low home appraisal Selling in a soft market
  • 27. Testimonials & Recommendations   Eric is an extremely dedicated agent. His knowledge, dependability, honesty, integrity and his unbelievable rapid response at all hours gave me confidence…I felt at ease with Eric and I always had a sense of peace that he would do his best on my behalf. Eric is truly a remarkable agent and person…  As an Orthopedic Surgeon, I am in the “service industry” as well and believe I should be there in every way for my patients. Frequently, when I work with others, I feel that service is lacking. I am proud to say that Eric provided excellent service, above and beyond my expectations!   I have recommended him to countless friends.   -Kent Ellington, MD “Eric is a real go getter...he has quickly established a large base of business clients and continues to build the foundation for an outstanding career in Real Estate sales. He is service oriented and consistently presents value opportunities to his customers.”  -OK Hogan Coastal Ventures Group Elizabeth City, NC   "I have worked with Eric Cox for the past year on three separate investments.  Eric has been professional, knowledgeable and most helpful.  I am from out of state however when I deal with Eric for my investments I do so with complete confidence and trust."    -Sara I. Sandoval San Diego, CA2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 27
  • 28. Testimonials & Recommendations “From my first meeting with Eric, it was evident he offers a deft combination of authenticity, professionalism, and patience. I felt comfortable with him from the start, and as my wife and I expand our real estate investment portfolio, Ill continue to seek him out. During some atypical scenarios that popped up in my deals, Eric was tireless in making extra phone calls on my behalf. Perhaps best of all, he is able to service my real estate investment needs on a wide continuum across the whole region, including distressed properties, new development, predevelopment, and even commercial interests. Eric is one of the hardest working professionals in real estate, and his attentiveness sets him even further apart.”   -John Martin    Charlotte, NC   “Dear Eric, I just wanted to let you know that you have helped me to find and purchase two pre-construction resort properties which I intend to resell and turn a nice little profit. You have given me guidance and advice that has helped to get good properties in places that will be of interest to investors as well as end users. You are also helping me to sell some properties and during the slow down in real estate sells you have brought several interested investors to the table. Thank you for you expertise and help,” -Gary Lynn      Accuspect Investments, LLC         Asheville, NC “Man, what to say about Eric... The guys on fire. His enthusiasm about what he does is contagious and his drive to know all aspects of the real estate world is impressive…he has worked with buyers looking for a primary residence, investors looking for flips, and buyers wanting multi-million dollar commercial. He has worked aggressively at becoming a land and development expert and continues to push towards being a full resource for all matters real estate. I cant wait to see where his ambition and work ethic take him!”   -Brian Trainum Charlotte, NC2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 28
  • 29. References & Sources: —  Keller, Gary, Dave Jenks, Jay Papasan. Shift: How Real Estate Agents Tackle Tough Times. New York: Relleck Publishing Partners, Ltd. 2009. Print. —  National Association of REALTORS® —  Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association —  Carolina Multiple Listing Service —  Federal Reserve2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 29
  • 30. Thank You. Eric J Cox, Realtor® Principal Broker, BIC (704) 493-5981 Eric@CoxResidential.com2011 Copyright: Cox Residential, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 30

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