MAKINGGOODDECISIONSSOMIK RAHASTANFORD SPLASH 20131
QUICK EXERCISEFor each situation below, write down whether you agree ordisagree.A. “The terrible situation in Iraq is proo...
HOW DO YOU JUDGE THEQUALITY OF A DECISION?3
YOU CANNOT JUDGETHE QUALITY OF ADECISION FROM THEOUTCOME!4Drive Drunk,CrashDrive Drunk,SafeDrive Sober,CrashDrive Sober,Sa...
WHAT DO YOU SAYNOW?A. “The terrible situation in Iraq is proof that Bush made abad decision invading it.”B. “I decided to ...
FROM THE ONLINESURVEYMaking Good Decisions621914PoliticalBias?PersonalBias?
QUICK EXERCISEFor each situation below, write down whether you agree ordisagree with the reasoning below.A. “We have inves...
THE SUNK-COSTPRINCIPLEThe past matters only for learning, not for accounting!8
WHAT DO YOU SAYNOW?A. “We have invested so much time in Afghanistan, and allof that effort would have been for nothing if ...
FROM THE ONLINESURVEYMaking Good Decisions106105PersonalBias?
HOW DO YOU KNOW YOU’VE MADE ADECISION?11When you’ve put in some resources (e.g.time/money/energy) that will never come bac...
WHO IS THE BEST JUDGEOF A GOOD DECISION?12The Decision-Maker
HOW DO I JUDGE THEQUALITY OF MY DECISION?From the process usedto make the decision13
COOLHEADWARM HEARTCOOLHEADWARM HEART14
FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION15
FRAMEWhat questions should we ask to judge a framefrom a cool-head and a warm heart?JUDGING OUR FRAME16
Frame: Your window to the worldWhat’s in? What’s already decided?What’s coming later?What’s out?17
Should I ask him/her out on a date?Is thisuseful?Is thismeaningful?What questions should we ask to judge this framefrom a ...
Where and when should I ask him/her outon a date?Is thisuseful?Is thismeaningful?19
How can I get to know him/her at a deeperlevel?Is thisuseful?Is thismeaningful?20
FRAME Useful Meaningful21
FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION22
ALTERNATIVES: What can I do?23
“Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,you look fat in everything you wear.”W...
“Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,you look fat in everything you wear.”W...
“Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,you look fat in everything you wear.”W...
“You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”I want to beat the hell out of this person.What are my alternatives?27Distinct,DoableCreative,Intr...
“You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”I want to beat the hell out of this person.What are my alternatives?No, you are mistaken. 28Disti...
“You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”I want to beat the hell out of this person.What are my alternatives?Oh, that was a cannonball that...
Thank you all for listening to ourarchitect’s plans for the new dorm. Anysuggestions from the students? Yes, we feel stron...
Yes, we feel stronglyabout having unisextoilets?But I want to honorthe students’suggestion.This is sure to fail amonth or ...
Use Options thinking, create anoptionMake two bathrooms instead ofone, but make both of them unisexIf it doesn’t work out,...
FRAME Useful MeaningfulALTERNATIVESDistinct,DoableCreative, Intriguing,Deepening, Interesting33
FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION34
INFORMATION: What do I know?35
“I know this test is disgusting, but I wantyou to take it. Do you have anyquestions?”What should you ask the doctor?What q...
“I know this test is disgusting, but I wantyou to take it. Do you have anyquestions?”What would you do differentlydependin...
“I know this test is disgusting, but I wantyou to take it. Do you have anyquestions?”For positive cases, what fraction has...
“You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”I want to beat the hell out of this person.What are my alternatives?Oh, that was a cannonball that...
FRAME Useful MeaningfulALTERNATIVESDistinct,DoableCreative, Intriguing,Deepening, InterestingINFORMATIONReliable,RelevantI...
FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION41
Alice: ‘Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?’Cheshire Cat: ‘That depends a good deal on where you...
COOLHEADWARM HEARTCOOLHEADWARM HEARTWhat questions should we ask to judge our valuesfrom a cool-head and a warm heart?What...
“Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,you look fat in everything you wear.”W...
“I dare you to a fight.”Insulted over something and challenged to afight, standing eyeball-to-eyeball, before thefirst blo...
“I dare you to a fight.”Insulted over something and challenged to afight, standing eyeball-to-eyeball, before thefirst blo...
“Where should we take ourcompany in the next fiveyears?”How can wesustainably serve theworld?Who do we want tobe?Road Valu...
FRAME Useful MeaningfulALTERNATIVESINFORMATIONReliable,RelevantVALUESPreferences,Metrics,TradeoffsInspirational48Distinct,...
FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION49
INTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTWhat questions should we ask to judge ourintegration from a cool-head and a warm heart?Am I u...
QUESTIONIf someone is a haemophiliac, what is your probability thatthis person is a male?If someone is a male, what is you...
Male given Haemophiliac Haemophiliac given Male523%33%27%33%3%50%13%27%7%3%
Male given Haemophiliac Haemophiliac given Malehttp://themedicalbiochemistrypage.org/hemophilia-a.htmlHaemophilia A: 1 in ...
QUESTIONIf someone has lung cancer, what is your probability that thisperson was a smoker?If someone is a smoker, what is ...
55Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given SmokerWhat do you notice?The weight is in the lower half on the right! Could ...
Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given SmokerCDC: 19.3% of all Americans are smokers (2010)National Cancer Institute: ...
Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given SmokerCDC: 19.3% of all Americans are smokers (2010)National Cancer Institute: ...
NARRATIVELogic is not enoughWe need a powerful narrative that helps us connect with ourdeepest valuesThe narrative helps u...
FRAME Useful MeaningfulALTERNATIVESINFORMATIONReliable,RelevantVALUESPreferences,Metrics,TradeoffsInspirationalINTEGRATION...
FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION60
COOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTIONWhat are my action plans?Action planningAm I dedicated to the vision?Leadership, Foll...
COOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTIONKNOWING-DOING GAPWe know what’s good for us, but we still don’t doitAWARENESSHow can ...
FRAME Useful MeaningfulALTERNATIVESINFORMATION Reliable,Relevant,DecisiveVALUESPreferences,Metrics,TradeoffsInspirationalI...
YOUR LEARNINGWhat are you going to take back with you?64
THANK YOU!somik.raha@gmail.com65
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Making Good Decisions

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  • Making Good Decisions

    1. 1. MAKINGGOODDECISIONSSOMIK RAHASTANFORD SPLASH 20131
    2. 2. QUICK EXERCISEFor each situation below, write down whether you agree ordisagree.A. “The terrible situation in Iraq is proof that Bush made abad decision invading it.”B. “I decided to breakup with my boyfriend and am so happynow – that shows my decision was good.”C. “The Columbia shuttle blew up and therefore the decisionto let it launch was a bad one.”2
    3. 3. HOW DO YOU JUDGE THEQUALITY OF A DECISION?3
    4. 4. YOU CANNOT JUDGETHE QUALITY OF ADECISION FROM THEOUTCOME!4Drive Drunk,CrashDrive Drunk,SafeDrive Sober,CrashDrive Sober,SafeBadOutcomeGood OutcomeBadDecisionGoodDecision
    5. 5. WHAT DO YOU SAYNOW?A. “The terrible situation in Iraq is proof that Bush made abad decision invading it.”B. “I decided to breakup with my boyfriend and am so happynow – that shows my decision was good.”C. “The Columbia shuttle blew up and therefore the decisionto let it launch was a bad one.”55
    6. 6. FROM THE ONLINESURVEYMaking Good Decisions621914PoliticalBias?PersonalBias?
    7. 7. QUICK EXERCISEFor each situation below, write down whether you agree ordisagree with the reasoning below.A. “We have invested so much time in Afghanistan, and all ofthat effort would have been for nothing if we pull out now.”B. “I have invested so much time on my relationship and Idon’t want to move on or else all of that investment wouldbe a waste.”C. “We have spent so much money on tutors and my skillshave still not improved. Even though I believe the nexttutor will succeed, I don’t want to lose any more money onthis.”7
    8. 8. THE SUNK-COSTPRINCIPLEThe past matters only for learning, not for accounting!8
    9. 9. WHAT DO YOU SAYNOW?A. “We have invested so much time in Afghanistan, and allof that effort would have been for nothing if we pull outnow.”B. “I have invested so much time on my relationship and Idon’t want to move on or else all of that investmentwould be a waste.”C. “We have spent so much money on tutors and my skillshave still not improved. Even though I believe the nexttutor will succeed, I don’t want to lose any more moneyon this.”9
    10. 10. FROM THE ONLINESURVEYMaking Good Decisions106105PersonalBias?
    11. 11. HOW DO YOU KNOW YOU’VE MADE ADECISION?11When you’ve put in some resources (e.g.time/money/energy) that will never come backto you (i.e. taken action)
    12. 12. WHO IS THE BEST JUDGEOF A GOOD DECISION?12The Decision-Maker
    13. 13. HOW DO I JUDGE THEQUALITY OF MY DECISION?From the process usedto make the decision13
    14. 14. COOLHEADWARM HEARTCOOLHEADWARM HEART14
    15. 15. FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION15
    16. 16. FRAMEWhat questions should we ask to judge a framefrom a cool-head and a warm heart?JUDGING OUR FRAME16
    17. 17. Frame: Your window to the worldWhat’s in? What’s already decided?What’s coming later?What’s out?17
    18. 18. Should I ask him/her out on a date?Is thisuseful?Is thismeaningful?What questions should we ask to judge this framefrom a cool-head and a warm heart?18
    19. 19. Where and when should I ask him/her outon a date?Is thisuseful?Is thismeaningful?19
    20. 20. How can I get to know him/her at a deeperlevel?Is thisuseful?Is thismeaningful?20
    21. 21. FRAME Useful Meaningful21
    22. 22. FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION22
    23. 23. ALTERNATIVES: What can I do?23
    24. 24. “Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,you look fat in everything you wear.”What are her alternatives?What questions should we ask to judge alternativesfrom a cool-head and a warm heart?Distinct,DoableCreative,Intriguing,Deepening,Interesting24
    25. 25. “Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,you look fat in everything you wear.”What are her alternatives?“You’d better change into anothershirt.”“You look wonderful!”“Sorry, its not the shirt, its you. Youlook fat in every shirt you wear.”25Distinct,DoableCreative,Intriguing,Deepening,Interesting
    26. 26. “Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,you look fat in everything you wear.”What are her alternatives?“If you’re really asking me whether I love you, theanswer is yes, and it has nothing to do with howfat you are. Now, are you still interested inwhether you look fat in this shirt?”26Distinct,DoableCreative,Intriguing,Deepening,Interesting
    27. 27. “You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”I want to beat the hell out of this person.What are my alternatives?27Distinct,DoableCreative,Intriguing,Deepening,Interesting
    28. 28. “You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”I want to beat the hell out of this person.What are my alternatives?No, you are mistaken. 28Distinct,DoableCreative,Intriguing,Deepening,Interesting
    29. 29. “You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”I want to beat the hell out of this person.What are my alternatives?Oh, that was a cannonball that flew over myhead! I wonder what made you say that?29Distinct,DoableCreative,Intriguing,Deepening,Interesting
    30. 30. Thank you all for listening to ourarchitect’s plans for the new dorm. Anysuggestions from the students? Yes, we feel stronglyabout having unisextoilets?Oh oh.What’s the head of the committee thinking?30
    31. 31. Yes, we feel stronglyabout having unisextoilets?But I want to honorthe students’suggestion.This is sure to fail amonth or two after wemake it, and we willhave to rebuild thetoilets.Distinctive,DoableCreative,Intriguing,DeepeningWhat can I do?31
    32. 32. Use Options thinking, create anoptionMake two bathrooms instead ofone, but make both of them unisexIf it doesn’t work out, simplychange the signsDistinct,DoableCreative, Intriguing,Deepening, Interesting32
    33. 33. FRAME Useful MeaningfulALTERNATIVESDistinct,DoableCreative, Intriguing,Deepening, Interesting33
    34. 34. FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION34
    35. 35. INFORMATION: What do I know?35
    36. 36. “I know this test is disgusting, but I wantyou to take it. Do you have anyquestions?”What should you ask the doctor?What questions should we ask to judge informationfrom a cool-head and a warm heart?36
    37. 37. “I know this test is disgusting, but I wantyou to take it. Do you have anyquestions?”What would you do differentlydepending on the result of the test?What questions should we ask to judge informationfrom a cool-head and a warm heart?37
    38. 38. “I know this test is disgusting, but I wantyou to take it. Do you have anyquestions?”For positive cases, what fraction has thetest reported as “positive?”For negative cases, what fraction hasthe test reported as “negative?”What questions should we ask to judge informationfrom a cool-head and a warm heart?38
    39. 39. “You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”I want to beat the hell out of this person.What are my alternatives?Oh, that was a cannonball that flew over myhead! I wonder what made you say that?What questions should we ask to judge informationfrom a cool-head and a warm heart?39
    40. 40. FRAME Useful MeaningfulALTERNATIVESDistinct,DoableCreative, Intriguing,Deepening, InterestingINFORMATIONReliable,RelevantInteresting,Exploratory,Surprising40
    41. 41. FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION41
    42. 42. Alice: ‘Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?’Cheshire Cat: ‘That depends a good deal on where you want to get to’Alice: ‘I dont much care where—’Cheshire Cat: ‘Then it doesnt matter which way you go’Alice: ‘—so long as I get SOMEWHERE’Cheshire Cat: Oh, youre sure to do that, if you only walk longenough.For the one who believes everyoutcome is the right outcome,there is no decision to be made.42
    43. 43. COOLHEADWARM HEARTCOOLHEADWARM HEARTWhat questions should we ask to judge our valuesfrom a cool-head and a warm heart?What are my preferences?What metrics do I need touse? How do I tradeoff thesemetrics?Who do I want to be?Inspirational43
    44. 44. “Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,you look fat in everything you wear.”What are her alternatives?If you’re really asking me whether I love you, theanswer is yes, and it has nothing to do with howfat you are. Now, are you still interested inwhether you look fat in this shirt?Preferences/metrics/ tradeoffsWho do I want to be?44
    45. 45. “I dare you to a fight.”Insulted over something and challenged to afight, standing eyeball-to-eyeball, before thefirst blow is given. I pause and think.What should I be thinking?Can I really win? (RELIABLE,USEFUL INFORMATION)Do I want to get hurt?(PREFERENCES)How do I get out of this?(CREATIVE ALTERNATIVES)I don’t really want tohurt anyone (WHO DO IWANT TO BE)How can getting out stillbe cool for both of us?(INTRIGUINGALTERNATIVES)True 11thgrade story45
    46. 46. “I dare you to a fight.”Insulted over something and challenged to afight, standing eyeball-to-eyeball, before thefirst blow is given. I pause and think.I say, “Dude, you are a strong guy, and I can’tbeat you. But if you swing, so will I, and both ofus will be hurt. Since neither of us can winwithout getting hurt, there’s no point fighting.Why not go back to our seats?”He grins, and says, “Good idea.”True 11thgrade story46
    47. 47. “Where should we take ourcompany in the next fiveyears?”How can wesustainably serve theworld?Who do we want tobe?Road Values MountainValuesWhat big impact on the world do Iwant to have in my career atCompany XYZ47Videos of two companies sharing values withtheir employees• Southwest• Apple
    48. 48. FRAME Useful MeaningfulALTERNATIVESINFORMATIONReliable,RelevantVALUESPreferences,Metrics,TradeoffsInspirational48Distinct,DoableCreative, Intriguing,Deepening, InterestingInteresting,Exploratory,Surprising
    49. 49. FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION49
    50. 50. INTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTWhat questions should we ask to judge ourintegration from a cool-head and a warm heart?Am I using the right logic?Logical ReasoningAm I taking everyone along?Narrative, Community50
    51. 51. QUESTIONIf someone is a haemophiliac, what is your probability thatthis person is a male?If someone is a male, what is your probability that thisperson has haemophilia?51
    52. 52. Male given Haemophiliac Haemophiliac given Male523%33%27%33%3%50%13%27%7%3%
    53. 53. Male given Haemophiliac Haemophiliac given Malehttp://themedicalbiochemistrypage.org/hemophilia-a.htmlHaemophilia A: 1 in 5000 males; 1 in 50 million femalesJoint Probability0.02% Haemophiliac0.01%50% Male99.98% Not Haemophiliac49.99%0.000002% Haemophiliac0.000001%50% Female99.999998% Not Haemophiliac49.999999%Joint Probability99.99% Male0.01%0.01% Haemophiliac0.01% Female0.000001%49.99% Male49.99%99.99% Not Haemophiliac50.01% Female49.999999%Associative LogicError: Treating M|Hsame as H|M533%33%27%33%3%50%13%27%7%3%
    54. 54. QUESTIONIf someone has lung cancer, what is your probability that thisperson was a smoker?If someone is a smoker, what is your probability that thisperson will get lung cancer?54
    55. 55. 55Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given SmokerWhat do you notice?The weight is in the lower half on the right! Could this bean associative logic error?Male given Haemophiliac Haemophiliac given Male3%33%27%33%3%50%13%27%7%3%17%30%13%40%3%13%20%40%13%10%
    56. 56. Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given SmokerCDC: 19.3% of all Americans are smokers (2010)National Cancer Institute: 226,000 Americans in 2012 will be diagnosed with lung cancerUS Census Bureau: 313 million people in the US as of Apr 21,2012% with lung cancer: 0.07%Lung Cancer Prognosis: 8.9% of around 25,000 lung cancer patients were never smokers; therefore91.1% of lung cancer patients were smokers56
    57. 57. Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given SmokerCDC: 19.3% of all Americans are smokers (2010)National Cancer Institute: 226,000 Americans in 2012 will be diagnosed with lung cancerUS Census Bureau: 313 million people in the US as of Apr 21,2012% with lung cancer: 0.07%Lung Cancer Prognosis: 8.9% of around 25,000 lung cancer patients were never smokers; therefore 91.1% of lungcancer patients were smokersJoint Probability91.10% Smoker0.06%0.07% Lung Cancer8.90% Never Smoker0.01%19.3% Smoker19.286490%99.93% No Lung Cancer80.7% Never Smoker80.643510%Joint Probability0.33% Lung Cancer0.06%19.35% Smoker99.67% No Lung Cancer19.29%0.01% Lung Cancer0.01%80.65% Never Smoker99.99% No Lung Cancer80.64%57
    58. 58. NARRATIVELogic is not enoughWe need a powerful narrative that helps us connect with ourdeepest valuesThe narrative helps us rally together as a communityLet’s watch a video:• Apple – WWDC 1997, Steve Jobs provides a narrative atApple’s Worldwide Developer Conference – 05:00-07:0058
    59. 59. FRAME Useful MeaningfulALTERNATIVESINFORMATIONReliable,RelevantVALUESPreferences,Metrics,TradeoffsInspirationalINTEGRATION Logic/ReasoningNarrative,Community59Distinct,DoableCreative,Intriguing,ExcitingInteresting,Exploratory,Surprising
    60. 60. FRAMEINTEGRATIONCOOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTION60
    61. 61. COOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTIONWhat are my action plans?Action planningAm I dedicated to the vision?Leadership, Followership,Quality CommitmentsVIDEO61
    62. 62. COOLHEADWARM HEARTCOMMITMENT TOACTIONKNOWING-DOING GAPWe know what’s good for us, but we still don’t doitAWARENESSHow can we become more aware of our choices?62
    63. 63. FRAME Useful MeaningfulALTERNATIVESINFORMATION Reliable,Relevant,DecisiveVALUESPreferences,Metrics,TradeoffsInspirationalINTEGRATION Logic/ReasoningNarrative,CommunityCOMMITMENT TOACTIONAction Plans Leadership,Followership63Distinct,DoableCreative,Intriguing,ExcitingInteresting,Exploratory,Surprising
    64. 64. YOUR LEARNINGWhat are you going to take back with you?64
    65. 65. THANK YOU!somik.raha@gmail.com65

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