UKPVC 2010 Edwin koot - Global PV Trends
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UKPVC 2010 Edwin koot - Global PV Trends

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PV Markets worldwide - an overview

PV Markets worldwide - an overview
Edwin Koot - CEO Solarplaza

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UKPVC 2010 Edwin koot - Global PV Trends UKPVC 2010 Edwin koot - Global PV Trends Presentation Transcript

  • “Trends in the global PV market” Edwin Koot CEO SolarPlaza
  • SolarPlaza SolarPlaza support project development in Spain © Laxtron SolarPlaza PV Business Tour China; April 2006. Meeting with founder Dr. Zhengrong Shi, founder Suntech Power, 10 billion dollar PV PV Trade mission to California in 2007 SolarPlaza PV Business Tour Taiwan; Jan 2008. company
  • The Global PV market WORLD PV MARKET [MWp/year] NEWLY INSTALLED PV POWER 12.000 10.000 CAGR: 50% 8.000 6.000 Crisis, what crisis? 4.000 2009: +11% growth 2.000 2010: +69% growth - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  • The leading PV markets in 2009 4000   3500   3000   53% global 2500   market share; 10 MW/day… 2000   1500   1000   500   0   Italy   Japan   Republik   Belgium   France   South   Australia   UK   China   Germany   Korea   USA   Czech  
  • Germany: the engine of industry… 16000 [MWp/year] 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 ? Buerstad; 50.000 m2, Photo by Ralph Orlowski/2005 Getty Images, Inc. 4000 2000 0 10 MW Sunpower project in Bavaria 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 © Solarplaza April 2010; Data source: Bundesnetzagentur plus Solarplaza model 5
  • Most important applications © Frankensolar Foto: ©Enfinity; McBride, Ieper, Belgium © Solarfabrik
  • The PV industry • 150 cell manufacturers • >400 module producers • 85% c-Si • Oversupply… 2002: 10 MW 2002: 10 MW 2002: 3 MW 2004: 10 MW 2010: 1200 MW 2009: 1000 MW 2009: 600 MW 2009: 600 MW 11.5 Mrd $ 2,6 Mrd $ 2 Mrd $ 2 Mrd $
  • Declining module prices Solarfun (NASDAQ) $4,50     [$/Wp]   $4,00     Forecast $3,50     analyst $3,00     $2,50     $2,00     $1,50     $1,00     $0,50     $0,00     Q2-­‐08   Q3-­‐08   Q4-­‐08   Q1-­‐09   Q2-­‐09   Q3-­‐09   Q4-­‐09   Q1-­‐10   Q2-­‐10   Q3-­‐10  
  • World market 2010-2013 • German market is 20.000 18.000 German PV market essential! PV market USA 16.000 Global PV market 14.000 China • Emerging: Italy, USA, [MWp/year] 12.000 China, India, France, 10.000 8.000 Belgium 6.000 4.000 • New markets: 2.000 Australia, Canada, - 2003 2008 2013 Bulgaria, Israel, © SolarPlaza April 2010; various UK, Turkey… data sources
  • Belgian PV market 500,0 [MWp/year] 450,0 400,0 350,0 Start of 300,0 incentives 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 © Solarplaza, April 2009; Data sources: ODE,
  • 3 years to develop a market… 3000 [MWp] Italy Spain 2500 Germany Belgium 2000 1500 Comparison: Start at the 1000 same time 500 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 © Solarplaza May 2009; Data sources: BSW, GSE, ASIF and Solarplaza data model 11
  • Subsidy dependence gone within 10 years
  • Long term market drivers • Growing electricity demand • Shortage of oil [IEA] • Climate change policy 800 MWp = 50.000 e-cars • Independence & security • Technology development +40% growth feasible
  • PV market growth scenarios 160 [GWp/yr] 140 Past 10 years: 50%/year 120 €500 billion 100 80 60 40 Wind energy & EPIA: 25%/year 20 €150 billion 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 © Solarplaza April 2010; Data source: analyses by Solarplaza based on various sources
  • Conclusions • 2010-2015: –  UK PV market will start to grow –  Declining module prices –  Industry consolidation • 2015-2020: –  Growing subsidy independence –  New business models –  Strong global growth
  • “Grid-parity” [€/kWh] Example: Spain 0,50 0,45 Solar energy 0,40 price “Grid 0,35 parity” 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 Electricity price 0,05 0,00 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2013 2015 2017 2020 2011
  • Grid-parity, and then…? • New business 0,30 [€/kWh] Electricity 0,25 price models 0,20 • New energy 0,15 Solar energy price companies? 0,10 • Capital is crucial 0,05 0,00 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026