UKPVC 2010 Edwin koot - Global PV Trends

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PV Markets worldwide - an overview
Edwin Koot - CEO Solarplaza

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UKPVC 2010 Edwin koot - Global PV Trends

  1. 1. “Trends in the global PV market” Edwin Koot CEO SolarPlaza
  2. 2. SolarPlaza SolarPlaza support project development in Spain © Laxtron SolarPlaza PV Business Tour China; April 2006. Meeting with founder Dr. Zhengrong Shi, founder Suntech Power, 10 billion dollar PV PV Trade mission to California in 2007 SolarPlaza PV Business Tour Taiwan; Jan 2008. company
  3. 3. The Global PV market WORLD PV MARKET [MWp/year] NEWLY INSTALLED PV POWER 12.000 10.000 CAGR: 50% 8.000 6.000 Crisis, what crisis? 4.000 2009: +11% growth 2.000 2010: +69% growth - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  4. 4. The leading PV markets in 2009 4000   3500   3000   53% global 2500   market share; 10 MW/day… 2000   1500   1000   500   0   Italy   Japan   Republik   Belgium   France   South   Australia   UK   China   Germany   Korea   USA   Czech  
  5. 5. Germany: the engine of industry… 16000 [MWp/year] 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 ? Buerstad; 50.000 m2, Photo by Ralph Orlowski/2005 Getty Images, Inc. 4000 2000 0 10 MW Sunpower project in Bavaria 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 © Solarplaza April 2010; Data source: Bundesnetzagentur plus Solarplaza model 5
  6. 6. Most important applications © Frankensolar Foto: ©Enfinity; McBride, Ieper, Belgium © Solarfabrik
  7. 7. The PV industry • 150 cell manufacturers • >400 module producers • 85% c-Si • Oversupply… 2002: 10 MW 2002: 10 MW 2002: 3 MW 2004: 10 MW 2010: 1200 MW 2009: 1000 MW 2009: 600 MW 2009: 600 MW 11.5 Mrd $ 2,6 Mrd $ 2 Mrd $ 2 Mrd $
  8. 8. Declining module prices Solarfun (NASDAQ) $4,50     [$/Wp]   $4,00     Forecast $3,50     analyst $3,00     $2,50     $2,00     $1,50     $1,00     $0,50     $0,00     Q2-­‐08   Q3-­‐08   Q4-­‐08   Q1-­‐09   Q2-­‐09   Q3-­‐09   Q4-­‐09   Q1-­‐10   Q2-­‐10   Q3-­‐10  
  9. 9. World market 2010-2013 • German market is 20.000 18.000 German PV market essential! PV market USA 16.000 Global PV market 14.000 China • Emerging: Italy, USA, [MWp/year] 12.000 China, India, France, 10.000 8.000 Belgium 6.000 4.000 • New markets: 2.000 Australia, Canada, - 2003 2008 2013 Bulgaria, Israel, © SolarPlaza April 2010; various UK, Turkey… data sources
  10. 10. Belgian PV market 500,0 [MWp/year] 450,0 400,0 350,0 Start of 300,0 incentives 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 © Solarplaza, April 2009; Data sources: ODE,
  11. 11. 3 years to develop a market… 3000 [MWp] Italy Spain 2500 Germany Belgium 2000 1500 Comparison: Start at the 1000 same time 500 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 © Solarplaza May 2009; Data sources: BSW, GSE, ASIF and Solarplaza data model 11
  12. 12. Subsidy dependence gone within 10 years
  13. 13. Long term market drivers • Growing electricity demand • Shortage of oil [IEA] • Climate change policy 800 MWp = 50.000 e-cars • Independence & security • Technology development +40% growth feasible
  14. 14. PV market growth scenarios 160 [GWp/yr] 140 Past 10 years: 50%/year 120 €500 billion 100 80 60 40 Wind energy & EPIA: 25%/year 20 €150 billion 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 © Solarplaza April 2010; Data source: analyses by Solarplaza based on various sources
  15. 15. Conclusions • 2010-2015: –  UK PV market will start to grow –  Declining module prices –  Industry consolidation • 2015-2020: –  Growing subsidy independence –  New business models –  Strong global growth
  16. 16. “Grid-parity” [€/kWh] Example: Spain 0,50 0,45 Solar energy 0,40 price “Grid 0,35 parity” 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 Electricity price 0,05 0,00 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2013 2015 2017 2020 2011
  17. 17. Grid-parity, and then…? • New business 0,30 [€/kWh] Electricity 0,25 price models 0,20 • New energy 0,15 Solar energy price companies? 0,10 • Capital is crucial 0,05 0,00 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

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