Epia Sunbelt Winfried Hoffmann

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  • definitions of scores as follows:
    0% (did not do at all), 25% (minimal progress made this year), 50% (only half complete), 75% (We completed most but not all of objective intent), 100% (Met or exceeded objective for year).
  • definitions of scores as follows:
    0% (did not do at all), 25% (minimal progress made this year), 50% (only half complete), 75% (We completed most but not all of objective intent), 100% (Met or exceeded objective for year).
  • To act as a forum for exchange of information and discussion on issues related to RES
    Information dissemination campaigns
    Training courses
    Publications, leaflets
    Conferences, e.g. European Conference for Intelligent Renewable Energy Policy Options, Berlin, 19-21 January 2004
    Conferences on RES & RUE for islands (May 2003 Crete, August 2004 Cyprus)
    Sustainable Communities Conference March 2005, Austria
    Workshops, roundtables
    To provide information and consultancy on renewable energies for the political decision makers on local, regional, national and international level
    Policy reviews for all EU25 Member States
    Series of worshops in all New Member States
    RES targets for EU up to 20020
    Dinner debates in the European Parliament
    Input to Chinese RES Law Development
    Input to Russian RES Law Development
    To promote European RES equipment, products and services on world markets
    Europe, China, Russia, Latin America
  • Epia Sunbelt Winfried Hoffmann

    1. 1. « Unlocking the PV Potential Worldwide: Contribution of the Sunbelt » Winfried Hoffmann VP EPIA VP&CTO Applied Materials Solar Brussels, 28th October, 2010
    2. 2. 2101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Customer Needs on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency €/kWh €/hr light W/m² g/W Source: Fraunhofer ISE €/m² / aesthetics €/W flexibility W/mm²
    3. 3. 3101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann European Photovoltaic Industry Association The world's largest industry association devoted to the solar PV electricity market 238 members representing 90% of EU PV Industry National Associations Sustainability as governing principle EU and global levels, Members States (RES) Reference information source: market, policy, technology & science Leading edge studies: SET For 2020, PV Sunbelt, Solar Generation 6, ... Conferences: Industry Summit, Market Workshop, Thin Film, CPV, BIPV, ... Founding member of the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), ARE, PV Cycle
    4. 4. 4101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Membership FROM THE WHOLE PV INDUSTRY VALUE CHAIN
    5. 5. 5101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Historical Market Development by Regions 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 MarketsizeinGW JAP EU USA ROW ref: European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Navigant Consulting and Commerzbank Average growth 45%/yr Average growth 45%/yr
    6. 6. 6101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Competitiveness Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates (1999)
    7. 7. 7101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann winter summer $ct/kWh hours 60 20 0 40 0 6 12 18 24 Summer Winter Standard20,64 6,35 26,78 21,42 31,92 30 10 20 ¥/kWh hours 1260 2418 Range of Electricity Prices in California ref: Japan = KEPCO office data ; California = Alison Hyde of BSW Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005 Seasonal Electricity Prices
    8. 8. 8101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann 1 10 100 1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 MW accumulated ASPin$/W PEF 20% source: NAVIGANT 1980 2005 20081990 2000 Price Experience CurvePrice Experience Curve Driven by TechnologyDriven by Technology  Wafer thickness 0,7mm 0,15mm→  Kerf loss 0,5mm 0,10mm→  Efficiency 8% 22%→  Automation Industrial manufacturing  Economy of scale 0,1MW 200MW→  Wafer thickness 0,7mm 0,15mm→  Kerf loss 0,5mm 0,10mm→  Efficiency 8% 22%→  Automation Industrial manufacturing  Economy of scale 0,1MW 200MW→ Thin Film Photovoltaic
    9. 9. 9101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann SET For 2020 – PV penetration in EU Baseline Scenario: 4% 130 GW / 154 TWh Paradigm Shift Scenario: 12% 390 GW / 462 TWh Share of e-Demand by 2020 Indicative 2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2022 2024 2026 2028 20302008 2014 2020 GW Accelerated Scenario: 6% 200 GW / 230 TWh Cumulative Volume (GW)
    10. 10. 10101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann EPIA Study “Set for 2020” – World PV Volume Scenarios 0 50 100 150 200 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Years WorldwideannualPVinstallations inGWp Baseline Paradigm Shift Source: EPIA, Set for 2020 163 87 CAGR 25%CAGR 25% CAGR 34%CAGR 34% For Reference: 2000 – 2009CAGR 45%CAGR 45% Paradigm shift scenario: 717 GW cumulated worldwide, thereof 390 GW in Europe Baseline scenario: 396 GW cumulated worldwide; thereof 130 GW in Europe Source: EPIA, Set for 2020, 2009
    11. 11. 11101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CummulatedPVPower[GW] 0 200 400 600 800 1000 YearyinstalledPVPower[GW] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 AnnualPVGrowthRate RES-thinking 2050 Worldwide PV Growth Scenario till 2050 PV Growth RatePV Growth Rate PV Volume GrowthPV Volume Growth CAGR 2000-2009: 45% Ref: EREC and EPIA 2010 CumulatedPVPower[GW] YearlyInstalledPVPower[GW] Source: EREC RES-Thinking, 03/2010
    12. 12. 12101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann 10 100 1000 10000 100000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 inTWh/a 1% of total 10% of total Total electricity production PV electricity production  EU-27  100% target for RES of final energy  All RES sources to contribute  43% electricity share assumed (vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario)  World (OECD)  80% target for RES of final energy  43% electricity share assumed, too  PV covers about 1/4 of electricity and about 1/6 of final energy demand  Total PV energy supply in 2050: 11k TWh/a  EU-27  100% target for RES of final energy  All RES sources to contribute  43% electricity share assumed (vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario)  World (OECD)  80% target for RES of final energy  43% electricity share assumed, too  PV covers about 1/4 of electricity and about 1/6 of final energy demand  Total PV energy supply in 2050: 11k TWh/a PV GrowthPV Growth Assumption for 2050Assumption for 2050 RES-thinking 2050 – World PV Growth Scenario till 2050 Ref: EREC 2010 and W. Hoffmann personal estimates
    13. 13. 13101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Development of the Various Market Segments Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates 0 20 40 60 80 100 2006 2010 2020 2030 2050 percent(%) EU US RoW on grid RoW off grid
    14. 14. 14101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Background of Study  Ernesto Macías, President of the Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE), established already in 2006 the concept of this important research  In 2008, EPIA, together with the Alliance for Rural Electrification and the Spanish PV Association commissioned the first phase of the Study to the Strategic Consulting Firm A.T. Kearney (ATK)  In 2010, EPIA, supported by ATK, launched the final phase of the Study and produced a written document to be publicly disseminated
    15. 15. 15101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann EREC – European Renewable Energy CouncilEREC – European Renewable Energy Council Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors:Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors:  AEBIOMAEBIOM European Biomass Association  EBBEBB European Biodiesel Board  EBIOEBIO European Bioethanol Industry Association  EGECEGEC European Geothermal Energy Council  EPIAEPIA European Photovoltaic Industry Association  ESHAESHA European Small Hydropower Association  ESTIFESTIF European Solar Thermal Industry Federation  EUBIAEUBIA European Biomass Industry Association  EWEAEWEA European Wind Energy Association  EURECEUREC AgencyAgency European Renewable Energy Research Centres Agency Associate members:  EU-OEAEU-OEA European Ocean Energy Association  EREFEREF European Renewable Energy Federation  ESTELAESTELA European Solar Thermal Electricity Association
    16. 16. 16101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Projection for Future RE Portfolio for a 100% Global End Energy Coverage ref.: W. Hoffmann, own estimates 09/2010
    17. 17. 17101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann The World Wide Super Grid Source:SolarMillenniumAG,Erlangen excellent good suitable not suitable …for Solar Thermal Power Plant Super Grid „EUMENA“ 2010 - 2050 not suitable Super Grid „NAFTA“ 2020 - 2060 Super Grid „ASIA“ 2030 - 2070 Super Grid „AUSTRALIA“2040 - 2080 Super Grid „WORLD WIDE“ 2050 - 2100  Electricity  wind off-/ on shore  Solar Thermal Power Plant  PV Solar Electricity  Other Renewables  Hydrogen for special applications  Solar Thermal for heating and cooling 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 3 3 5 ref: W. Hoffmann SCHOTT Solar, Alzenau
    18. 18. Thank you very much!

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