Epia Sunbelt Adel el Gammal

Adel El Gammal
Secretary General
“Unlocking the Sunbelt Potential of Photovoltaics”
Brussels, 28 October 2010

The PV potential in Sunbelt Countries

Sunbelt regions, a tremendous PV opportunity
66 Sunbelt countries represent respectively ~75% of 6.7 bn world population and 39% of the 17.900 TWh world electricity demand
Electricity consumption will grow by ~150% within the next 20 years
1.5 bn world citizen have no access to electricity
Poor infrastructure and high electricity costs
Very high solar irradiation
PV, already competitive in some countries will become competitive with all peak generation by 2020 and most generation technologies by 2030
35° N
0°
Sunbelt
35° S
Countries in scope of study

However, less than 10% of PV capacity is installed in Sunbelt countries
Share in power demand and PV capacity
Irradiation vs. Market size (2009)

PV system prices expected to decrease 56% - 66% by 2030
PRICING CAPABILITY FOR LARGE PV SYSTEMS (€/kWp)

PV LCOE in Sunbelt could reach 4 - 8 €c/kWh by 2030
PV LCOE RANGES (€c/kWh)
Operating hours (kWh/kWp)

30
PV can be competitive with all peak load generation by 2020 and with mid-load by 2030
Comparison of LCOE 2010, 2020, 2030 (€c/kWh)low case fuel projection
Peak Load energy sources
PV
Diesel Peak
Gas peaking2)
Medium Load energy sources
CCGT2)
IGCC3)
Oil Fired
30
20
15
10
5
0
25
LCOE (€c/KWh)
2030
2020
2010

30
In a “high” fuel-price scenario, competitivenessis reached earlier and is more pronounced
Comparison of LCOE 2010, 2020, 2030 (€c/kWh)high case fuel projection
Peak Load energy sources
PV
Diesel Peak
Gas peaking2)
Medium Load energy sources
CCGT2)
IGCC3)
Oil Fired
30
20
15
10
5
0
25
LCOE (€c/KWh)
2030
2020
2010

PVopportunity depends on the investment climate & PV attractiveness for a given country
Z
Increasing PV Opportunity
PV attractiveness for country
High
Size of electricity market
e-demand growth
PV Cost competitiveness
Generation portfolio
Power grid losses
Power grid coverage
India
Pakistan
Indonesia
Yemen, Rep.
Bangladesh
Saudi Arabia
China
Cambodia
Mexico
Vietnam
Argentina
Syrian Arab Republic
Singapore
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Thailand
Brazil
Cameroon
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Turkey
Kuwait
Angola
Sri Lanka
Libya
Kenya
United Arab Emirates
Malaysia
Mozambique
Philippines
Venezuela, RB
Tunisia
Ethiopia
Ecuador
Algeria
Jordan
Peru
Chile
Lebanon
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Nigeria
South Africa
Australia
Senegal
Morocco
Colombia
Ghana
Nepal
Zambia
Qatar
Guatemala
Tanzania
Costa Rica
Israel
Namibia
Low
Country investment attractiveness
High
Botswana
Market potential
Political and business environment
Financial stability
Policies on renewable energy

Sunbelt potential may reach 260 - 1.130 GW 30% - 60% of Global Installed capacity in 2030
Share in global cumulative installed PV capacity by 2030 (GWp)
Scenario’s Installed PV in Sunbelt (GWp)

Apart from China, the 15 “middle” markets representsizeable opportunities on their own
PV potential by 2030 in
Paradigm Shift (GWp)
Comparison of PV potential by 2030 (GWp)
Other Sunbelt markets
15 middle markets
China
Size ofbubble = PV Potential 2030 in GWp (ParadigmShift Scenario)

Key conditions for market deployment

Conditions to Unlock the Sunbelt Potential
Implementation& Service
Established PV companies need to take market making actions to create ecosystem for growth
Grid Infrastructure
Grid operators need to understand the multiple benefits of PV especially as peak generation technology
Finance
Public and Private investment will ne necessary to finance capacity building and to provide the necessary impetus
Policy support / level playing field
A stable policy environment is necessary to provide investment confidence and support deployment during pre-competitive phase
PV Know-how& Perception
Awareness building and information campaign regarding PV is needed among opinion and decision makers in Sunbelt

EPIA will play a catalytic role in realizingconditions for market deployment in the Sunbelt

Summary of key findings

Summary of Key Findings
PV taps into unlimited, indigenous energy supply and can make a sizeable contribution to meet rising power demand.
PV is a low carbon technology and has a best in class energy payback time; currently 8-16 months and constantly decreasing.
PV is scalable from W to MW. I can be used in:
Centralised power plants;
Mini-grids for powering decentralized or remote communities;
Rooftop applications in dense urban environments;
Off-grid applications for rural electrification.
PV capacity can be scaled up very quickly and constitutes a key solution to meet the soaring electricity demand in the Sunbelt.

Summary of Key Findings
PV has very low O&M costs. It doesn’t need water to operate.
In Sunbelt Countries, PV LCOE will reach
12 - 20 €c/KWh currently, making it competitive with diesel peak generation
6 - 12 €c/kWh in by 2020, making it competitive with all peak generation technologies
4 - 8 €c/KWh by 2030, making it competitive with most generation technologies
Depending on the scenario, PV potential in Sunbelt Countries could range from 60 to 250 GW by 2020, and from 260 to 1,100 GW in 2030, representing 27-58% of the forecasted global installed PV capacity by then.

Conclusions
PV competitive potential is massive
PV is a clean, affordable and democratic electricity source for North and South, cities and countries.
PV will be mainstream by 2020 and a major contributor to electricity supply worldwide by 2030

The Future is here, it is just not widelydistributedyet...
Adel El Gammal
a.elgammal@epia.org

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Epia Sunbelt Adel el Gammal

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