Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Epia Sunbelt Adel el Gammal
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Saving this for later?

Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime - even offline.

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Epia Sunbelt Adel el Gammal

1,444
views

Published on

Published in: Health & Medicine

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,444
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Adel El Gammal Secretary General Brussels, 28 October 2010
  • 2. 3Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 1. 66 Sunbelt countries represent respectively ~75% of 6.7 bn world population and 39% of the 17.900 TWh world electricity demand 2. Electricity consumption will grow by ~150% within the next 20 years 3. 1.5 bn world citizen have no access to electricity 4. Poor infrastructure and high electricity costs 5. Very high solar irradiation 6. PV, already competitive in some countries will become competitive with all peak generation by 2020 and most generation technologies by 2030 Countries in scope of study 35° S 35° N 0°Sunbelt
  • 3. 4Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 Irradiation vs. Market size (2009) Share in power demand and PV capacity
  • 4. 5Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 PRICING CAPABILITY FOR LARGE PV SYSTEMS (€/kWp)
  • 5. 6Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 Operating hours (kWh/kWp) PV LCOE RANGES (€c/kWh)
  • 6. 7Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 PV Diesel Peak Gas peaking2) Peak Load energy sources Medium Load energy sources CCGT2) IGCC3) Oil Fired Comparison of LCOE 2010, 2020, 2030 (€c/kWh) low case fuel projection 2010 2020 2030 3020151050 25 LCOE (€c/KWh)
  • 7. 8Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 PV Diesel Peak Gas peaking2) Peak Load energy sources Medium Load energy sources CCGT2) IGCC3) Oil Fired LCOE (€c/KWh) 3020151050 25 Comparison of LCOE 2010, 2020, 2030 (€c/kWh) high case fuel projection 2010 2020 2030
  • 8. 9Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 Country investment attractiveness PV attractiveness for country High Low Venezuela, RB United Arab Emirates Turkey Tunisia Thailand Tanzania Zambia Sri Lanka Syrian Arab Republic AlgeriaPeru Philippines Qatar Saudi Arabia Senegal Singapore South Africa Jordan Jamaica Israel Iran, Islamic Rep. Indonesia India Guatemala Ghana Ethiopia Egypt, Arab Rep. Ecuador Dominican Republic Costa Rica Colombia China Chile Cameroon Cambodia Brazil Yemen, Rep. Bangladesh Australia Argentina Angola Pakistan Nigeria Nepal Namibia Botswana Morocco Mexico Malaysia Libya Lebanon Kuwait Kenya Vietnam Mozambique High Increasing PV Opportunity • Size of electricity market • e-demand growth • PV Cost competitiveness • Generation portfolio • Power grid losses • Power grid coverage • Market potential • Political and business environment • Financial stability • Policies on renewable energy
  • 9. 10Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 Scenario’s Installed PV in Sunbelt (GWp) Share in global cumulative installed PV capacity by 2030 (GWp)
  • 10. 11Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 Size of bubble = PV Potential 2030 in GWp (Paradigm Shift Scenario) Other Sunbelt markets15 middle marketsChina PV potential by 2030 in Paradigm Shift (GWp) Comparison of PV potential by 2030 (GWp)
  • 11. 13Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 Policy support / level playing field  Awareness building and information campaign regarding PV is needed among opinion and decision makers in Sunbelt  A stable policy environment is necessary to provide investment confidence and support deployment during pre-competitive phase  Established PV companies need to take market making actions to create ecosystem for growth  Public and Private investment will ne necessary to finance capacity building and to provide the necessary impetus Finance PV Know-how & Perception Grid Infrastructure Implementation & Service  Grid operators need to understand the multiple benefits of PV especially as peak generation technology
  • 12. 14Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 EPIA Governments Policy Makers Financing Institutions Private Investment Utilities Industry National Associations & Civil Society
  • 13. 16Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 • PV taps into unlimited, indigenous energy supply and can make a sizeable contribution to meet rising power demand. • PV is a low carbon technology and has a best in class energy payback time; currently 8-16 months and constantly decreasing. • PV is scalable from W to MW. I can be used in: • Centralised power plants; • Mini-grids for powering decentralized or remote communities; • Rooftop applications in dense urban environments; • Off-grid applications for rural electrification. • PV capacity can be scaled up very quickly and constitutes a key solution to meet the soaring electricity demand in the Sunbelt.
  • 14. 17Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010 • PV has very low O&M costs. It doesn’t need water to operate. • In Sunbelt Countries, PV LCOE will reach • 12 - 20 €c/KWh currently, making it competitive with diesel peak generation • 6 - 12 €c/kWh in by 2020, making it competitive with all peak generation technologies • 4 - 8 €c/KWh by 2030, making it competitive with most generation technologies • Depending on the scenario, PV potential in Sunbelt Countries could range from 60 to 250 GW by 2020, and from 260 to 1,100 GW in 2030, representing 27-58% of the forecasted global installed PV capacity by then. •
  • 15. 18Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010  PV competitive potential is massive  PV is a clean, affordable and democratic electricity source for North and South, cities and countries.  PV will be mainstream by 2020 and a major contributor to electricity supply worldwide by 2030
  • 16. www.epia.org Adel El Gammal a.elgammal@epia.org