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Epia Sunbelt Adel el Gammal

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  • 1. Adel El Gammal
    Secretary General
    “Unlocking the Sunbelt Potential of Photovoltaics”
    Brussels, 28 October 2010
  • 2. The PV potential in Sunbelt Countries
  • 3. Sunbelt regions, a tremendous PV opportunity
    66 Sunbelt countries represent respectively ~75% of 6.7 bn world population and 39% of the 17.900 TWh world electricity demand
    Electricity consumption will grow by ~150% within the next 20 years
    1.5 bn world citizen have no access to electricity
    Poor infrastructure and high electricity costs
    Very high solar irradiation
    PV, already competitive in some countries will become competitive with all peak generation by 2020 and most generation technologies by 2030
    35° N

    Sunbelt
    35° S
    Countries in scope of study
  • 4. However, less than 10% of PV capacity is installed in Sunbelt countries
    Share in power demand and PV capacity
    Irradiation vs. Market size (2009)
  • 5. PV system prices expected to decrease 56% - 66% by 2030
    PRICING CAPABILITY FOR LARGE PV SYSTEMS (€/kWp)
  • 6. PV LCOE in Sunbelt could reach 4 - 8 €c/kWh by 2030
    PV LCOE RANGES (€c/kWh)
    Operating hours (kWh/kWp)
  • 7. 30
    PV can be competitive with all peak load generation by 2020 and with mid-load by 2030
    Comparison of LCOE 2010, 2020, 2030 (€c/kWh)low case fuel projection
    Peak Load energy sources
    PV
    Diesel Peak
    Gas peaking2)
    Medium Load energy sources
    CCGT2)
    IGCC3)
    Oil Fired
    30
    20
    15
    10
    5
    0
    25
    LCOE (€c/KWh)
    2030
    2020
    2010
  • 8. 30
    In a “high” fuel-price scenario, competitivenessis reached earlier and is more pronounced
    Comparison of LCOE 2010, 2020, 2030 (€c/kWh)high case fuel projection
    Peak Load energy sources
    PV
    Diesel Peak
    Gas peaking2)
    Medium Load energy sources
    CCGT2)
    IGCC3)
    Oil Fired
    30
    20
    15
    10
    5
    0
    25
    LCOE (€c/KWh)
    2030
    2020
    2010
  • 9. PVopportunity depends on the investment climate & PV attractiveness for a given country
    Z
    Increasing PV Opportunity
    PV attractiveness for country
    High
    • Size of electricity market
    • 10. e-demand growth
    • 11. PV Cost competitiveness
    • 12. Generation portfolio
    • 13. Power grid losses
    • 14. Power grid coverage
    India
    Pakistan
    Indonesia
    Yemen, Rep.
    Bangladesh
    Saudi Arabia
    China
    Cambodia
    Mexico
    Vietnam
    Argentina
    Syrian Arab Republic
    Singapore
    Iran, Islamic Rep.
    Thailand
    Brazil
    Cameroon
    Egypt, Arab Rep.
    Turkey
    Kuwait
    Angola
    Sri Lanka
    Libya
    Kenya
    United Arab Emirates
    Malaysia
    Mozambique
    Philippines
    Venezuela, RB
    Tunisia
    Ethiopia
    Ecuador
    Algeria
    Jordan
    Peru
    Chile
    Lebanon
    Jamaica
    Dominican Republic
    Nigeria
    South Africa
    Australia
    Senegal
    Morocco
    Colombia
    Ghana
    Nepal
    Zambia
    Qatar
    Guatemala
    Tanzania
    Costa Rica
    Israel
    Namibia
    Low
    Country investment attractiveness
    High
    Botswana
    • Market potential
    • 15. Political and business environment
    • 16. Financial stability
    • 17. Policies on renewable energy
  • Sunbelt potential may reach 260 - 1.130 GW 30% - 60% of Global Installed capacity in 2030
    Share in global cumulative installed PV capacity by 2030 (GWp)
    Scenario’s Installed PV in Sunbelt (GWp)
  • 18. Apart from China, the 15 “middle” markets representsizeable opportunities on their own
    PV potential by 2030 in
    Paradigm Shift (GWp)
    Comparison of PV potential by 2030 (GWp)
    Other Sunbelt markets
    15 middle markets
    China
    Size ofbubble = PV Potential 2030 in GWp (ParadigmShift Scenario)
  • 19. Key conditions for market deployment
  • 20. Conditions to Unlock the Sunbelt Potential
    Implementation& Service
    • Established PV companies need to take market making actions to create ecosystem for growth
    Grid Infrastructure
    • Grid operators need to understand the multiple benefits of PV especially as peak generation technology
    Finance
    • Public and Private investment will ne necessary to finance capacity building and to provide the necessary impetus
    Policy support / level playing field
    • A stable policy environment is necessary to provide investment confidence and support deployment during pre-competitive phase
    PV Know-how& Perception
    • Awareness building and information campaign regarding PV is needed among opinion and decision makers in Sunbelt
  • EPIA will play a catalytic role in realizingconditions for market deployment in the Sunbelt
  • 21. Summary of key findings
  • 22. Summary of Key Findings
    • PV taps into unlimited, indigenous energy supply and can make a sizeable contribution to meet rising power demand.
    • 23. PV is a low carbon technology and has a best in class energy payback time; currently 8-16 months and constantly decreasing.
    • 24. PV is scalable from W to MW. I can be used in:
    • 25. Centralised power plants;
    • 26. Mini-grids for powering decentralized or remote communities;
    • 27. Rooftop applications in dense urban environments;
    • 28. Off-grid applications for rural electrification.
    • 29. PV capacity can be scaled up very quickly and constitutes a key solution to meet the soaring electricity demand in the Sunbelt.
  • Summary of Key Findings
    • PV has very low O&M costs. It doesn’t need water to operate.
    • 30. In Sunbelt Countries, PV LCOE will reach
    • 31. 12 - 20 €c/KWh currently, making it competitive with diesel peak generation
    • 32. 6 - 12 €c/kWh in by 2020, making it competitive with all peak generation technologies
    • 33. 4 - 8 €c/KWh by 2030, making it competitive with most generation technologies
    • 34. Depending on the scenario, PV potential in Sunbelt Countries could range from 60 to 250 GW by 2020, and from 260 to 1,100 GW in 2030, representing 27-58% of the forecasted global installed PV capacity by then.
  • Conclusions
    • PV competitive potential is massive
    • 35. PV is a clean, affordable and democratic electricity source for North and South, cities and countries.
    • 36. PV will be mainstream by 2020 and a major contributor to electricity supply worldwide by 2030
  • The Future is here, it is just not widelydistributedyet...
    Adel El Gammal
    a.elgammal@epia.org