Epia Sunbelt Adel el GammalPresentation Transcript
Adel El Gammal Secretary General “Unlocking the Sunbelt Potential of Photovoltaics” Brussels, 28 October 2010
The PV potential in Sunbelt Countries
Sunbelt regions, a tremendous PV opportunity 66 Sunbelt countries represent respectively ~75% of 6.7 bn world population and 39% of the 17.900 TWh world electricity demand Electricity consumption will grow by ~150% within the next 20 years 1.5 bn world citizen have no access to electricity Poor infrastructure and high electricity costs Very high solar irradiation PV, already competitive in some countries will become competitive with all peak generation by 2020 and most generation technologies by 2030 35° N 0° Sunbelt 35° S Countries in scope of study
However, less than 10% of PV capacity is installed in Sunbelt countries Share in power demand and PV capacity Irradiation vs. Market size (2009)
PV system prices expected to decrease 56% - 66% by 2030 PRICING CAPABILITY FOR LARGE PV SYSTEMS (€/kWp)
PV LCOE in Sunbelt could reach 4 - 8 €c/kWh by 2030 PV LCOE RANGES (€c/kWh) Operating hours (kWh/kWp)
30 PV can be competitive with all peak load generation by 2020 and with mid-load by 2030 Comparison of LCOE 2010, 2020, 2030 (€c/kWh)low case fuel projection Peak Load energy sources PV Diesel Peak Gas peaking2) Medium Load energy sources CCGT2) IGCC3) Oil Fired 30 20 15 10 5 0 25 LCOE (€c/KWh) 2030 2020 2010
30 In a “high” fuel-price scenario, competitivenessis reached earlier and is more pronounced Comparison of LCOE 2010, 2020, 2030 (€c/kWh)high case fuel projection Peak Load energy sources PV Diesel Peak Gas peaking2) Medium Load energy sources CCGT2) IGCC3) Oil Fired 30 20 15 10 5 0 25 LCOE (€c/KWh) 2030 2020 2010
PVopportunity depends on the investment climate & PV attractiveness for a given country Z Increasing PV Opportunity PV attractiveness for country High
Size of electricity market
PV Cost competitiveness
Power grid losses
Power grid coverage
India Pakistan Indonesia Yemen, Rep. Bangladesh Saudi Arabia China Cambodia Mexico Vietnam Argentina Syrian Arab Republic Singapore Iran, Islamic Rep. Thailand Brazil Cameroon Egypt, Arab Rep. Turkey Kuwait Angola Sri Lanka Libya Kenya United Arab Emirates Malaysia Mozambique Philippines Venezuela, RB Tunisia Ethiopia Ecuador Algeria Jordan Peru Chile Lebanon Jamaica Dominican Republic Nigeria South Africa Australia Senegal Morocco Colombia Ghana Nepal Zambia Qatar Guatemala Tanzania Costa Rica Israel Namibia Low Country investment attractiveness High Botswana
Political and business environment
Policies on renewable energy
Sunbelt potential may reach 260 - 1.130 GW 30% - 60% of Global Installed capacity in 2030 Share in global cumulative installed PV capacity by 2030 (GWp) Scenario’s Installed PV in Sunbelt (GWp)
Apart from China, the 15 “middle” markets representsizeable opportunities on their own PV potential by 2030 in Paradigm Shift (GWp) Comparison of PV potential by 2030 (GWp) Other Sunbelt markets 15 middle markets China Size ofbubble = PV Potential 2030 in GWp (ParadigmShift Scenario)
Key conditions for market deployment
Conditions to Unlock the Sunbelt Potential Implementation& Service
Established PV companies need to take market making actions to create ecosystem for growth
Grid operators need to understand the multiple benefits of PV especially as peak generation technology
Public and Private investment will ne necessary to finance capacity building and to provide the necessary impetus
Policy support / level playing field
A stable policy environment is necessary to provide investment confidence and support deployment during pre-competitive phase
PV Know-how& Perception
Awareness building and information campaign regarding PV is needed among opinion and decision makers in Sunbelt
EPIA will play a catalytic role in realizingconditions for market deployment in the Sunbelt
Summary of key findings
Summary of Key Findings
PV taps into unlimited, indigenous energy supply and can make a sizeable contribution to meet rising power demand.
PV is a low carbon technology and has a best in class energy payback time; currently 8-16 months and constantly decreasing.
PV is scalable from W to MW. I can be used in:
Centralised power plants;
Mini-grids for powering decentralized or remote communities;
Rooftop applications in dense urban environments;
Off-grid applications for rural electrification.
PV capacity can be scaled up very quickly and constitutes a key solution to meet the soaring electricity demand in the Sunbelt.
Summary of Key Findings
PV has very low O&M costs. It doesn’t need water to operate.
In Sunbelt Countries, PV LCOE will reach
12 - 20 €c/KWh currently, making it competitive with diesel peak generation
6 - 12 €c/kWh in by 2020, making it competitive with all peak generation technologies
4 - 8 €c/KWh by 2030, making it competitive with most generation technologies
Depending on the scenario, PV potential in Sunbelt Countries could range from 60 to 250 GW by 2020, and from 260 to 1,100 GW in 2030, representing 27-58% of the forecasted global installed PV capacity by then.
PV competitive potential is massive
PV is a clean, affordable and democratic electricity source for North and South, cities and countries.
PV will be mainstream by 2020 and a major contributor to electricity supply worldwide by 2030
The Future is here, it is just not widelydistributedyet... Adel El Gammal firstname.lastname@example.org