Global Talent Market Quarterly Q411 Final Interactive
Global Talent Market Quarterly FOURTH QUARTER l 2011
Global Talent Market Quarterly CONTENTS CONTENTS 33 Global Economic Situa>on Global Economic Situation • Briefing 6 Global Labor Market Update • Outlook • Americas 6 Global MEA Market Update • E Labor • APAC • Americas • EMEA 11 U.S. Labor Market Overview • APAC • Current Employment Condi8ons • Legislative Update • Supply and Demand 11 • Labor Market Spotlight U.S. Labor Market Overview • Current Employment Conditions 15 Workforce Solu>ons Industry Insight • Supply and Demand • Global RPO Report • Labor Market Spotlight • Con8ngent Labor Management Trends 15 Workforce Webcast Series Insight • Kelly Solutions Industry • Global RPO Report • Contingent Labor Management Trends • Kelly Webcast Series
Global Economic Situation FOURTH QUARTER l 2011
Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOBAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING The global economy looks to be on a moderate growth path in the last part of 2011. Future growth expecta>ons are dependent upon an increase in consumer and business conﬁdence, and an easing in ﬁscal and poli>cal discord in key markets including the US and Eurozone. AMERICAS EMEA APAC Economic growth is expected to be sluggish Growth will be muted across EMEA as The region’s economies have rebounded from but posi>ve in the U.S. through 2012, fueling uncertainty over ﬁscal policies, social natural disasters in early 2011. Weakening moderate economic ac>vity in the region. tensions, and structural issues con>nues. export demand is a moun>ng concern. Canada Eurozone Japan AGer a mid-‐year lull, the Canadian economy is Despite an agreement on the debt crisis, Post-‐earthquake reconstruc8on con8nues to seeing posi8ve momentum in the second half economic uncertainty persists. In addi8on, drive growth in the second half of 2011, but as of 2011, boosted by strength in manufacturing. weak consumer spending and 8ghter ﬁscal public spending tapers oﬀ in 2012, private Slower growth is forecast for 2012. policies across the region are contribu8ng to consump8on is expected to sustain the sub-‐1% growth forecasts and the risk of economy’s momentum. U.S. recession into 2012. The economy has struggled to maintain its China upward trajectory, but forecasts indicate U.K. Slowing but s8ll robust growth in the range of modest growth in the second half of 2011. The economy will con8nue to struggle in late 8-‐9% is expected to con8nue in 2012. Poten8al Poli8cal disagreements and global uncertainty 2011 due to high inﬂa8on, ongoing austerity weakness in export demand from advanced con8nue to undermine the na8on’s growth measures, and regional slowdown concerns. markets poses the biggest risk to China’s prospects. Modest growth is expected in 2012. economic health. La>n America Central and Eastern Europe India Decelera8ng demand for exports will keep Economic ac8vity is slowing in response to Despite rising inﬂa8on and a slowdown in the economic growth in check in 2012. Despite the weaker global and Eurozone demand, but industrial sector, service sector resilience will slowdown, regional growth will remain in a growth rates will remain among the strongest keep growth rates near 8% in 2012. healthy 3-‐4% range in the short term. in the EMEA region in 2012. Australia Middle East and North Africa Modest economic ac8vity is expected for the Con8nued poli8cal and social turmoil is balance of 2011. The booming natural dampening growth in some markets, but oil resources and mining sector will drive higher expor8ng countries will con8nue to see strong growth in 2012. economic ac8vity in 2012. May Top 9% as Slump Poses Risk, Bloomberg, 10.16.11; Central Europe Seeing Decelera8ng Growth, Wall Street Journal Europe, 08.17.11; Sources: IHS Global Insight –Country Intelligence Reports (Ocotber 2011); China Growth 4 Eastern European Outlook: Growth will slow -‐ but not as sharply as in the West, SEB,October 2011; Recovering Canadian economy grows in July, Reuters, 9.30.11; U.S. 2Q GDP Growth Edges Up to 1.3%, Reuters, 9.30.11; Weak and bumpy global recovery ahead, SIA Daily News 09.21.1; Consumers, businesses pump up US Q3 growth, Reuters, 10.27.11
Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economic performance remains very uneven, with strong growth in emerging markets and weakness in the advanced economies, par>cularly the U.S. and Europe. A slight accelera>on is expected in H2 2011 and in 2012 but ongoing downside risks make the growth outlook uncertain. Real GDP Growth Rates (% Change) Real GDP Growth Rates (% Change) Select Markets 2011 (proj.) 2012 (proj.) Country/ Region 2010 (est.) 2011 (proj.) 2012 (proj.) AMERICAS Japan Brazil 7.5% 3.6% 3.9% U.K. Canada 3.2% 2.2% 1.9% U.S. 3.0% 1.7% 1.4% France EMEA France 1.4% 1.6% 0.4% U.S. Germany 3.6% 3.0% 1.0% Italy 1.2% 0.6% -‐0.2% Germany Russia 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% U.K. 1.8% 0.9% 1.0% WORLD Eurozone 1.7% 1.6% 0.3% Brazil APAC Australia 2.7% 1.7% 3.2% Russia China 10.3% 9.3% 8.1% India 8.8% 7.5% 7.7% India Japan 4.0% -‐0.6% 2.7% APAC 7.0% 4.7% 6.0% China WORLD 4.2% 3.1% 3.5% -‐1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% Source: IHS Global Insight –Country Intelligence Reports (October 2011) 5
Global Labor Market Update FOURTH QUARTER l 2011
Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO Average Annual Unemployment Rate TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOBAL LABOR MARKET UPDATE: AMERICAS 10% employment gains remain moderate as global economic uncertainty U.S. 2008 5% con>nues to impact employer conﬁdence; other regional labor markets 2010 such as Brazil and Canada show more resiliency. 0% U.S. Brazil Canada Mexico 2012 UNITED STATES BRAZIL CANADA MEXICO Hiring con8nues on a subdued Brazil con8nues to see record Canadian job crea8on exceeded Mexico’s unemployment rate pace into the last half of 2011, as low unemployment rates (at 6% expecta8ons in September as the rose in August, and remains private company job crea8on for three straight months) and unemployment rate fell to a higher than before the economic makes up for public sector losses. steady job crea8on. The 8ght three-‐year low. Much of the crisis despite increases in formal While the latest labor market labor market is also driving salary employment growth during the private sector job crea8on. The news is posi8ve, hiring is likely to increases. Average earnings for month came in the public sector, underemployment rate, or remain muted un8l the global Brazilian workers were up 0.5% par8cularly in educa8on; rising people who reported having economic picture becomes less month-‐over-‐month and 3.2% self-‐employment also accounted work but wan8ng more, also uncertain. year-‐over-‐year in August. for a signiﬁcant por8on of the jumped in August. Despite persistently high While the labor market remains country’s job increases. A bright spot in the Mexican unemployment, U.S. ﬁrms s8ll strong, increasing foreign The oil and gas industry is economy has been the report diﬃcul8es in alrac8ng compe88on has caused a lull in expected to lead the na8on in automo8ve sector. In the ﬁrst and retaining top talent. Some the country’s industrial sector. job growth over the next 20 nine months of 2011, auto employers are partnering with The Brazilian government has years. Direct and indirect produc8on was up 15% over the universi8es or the military to ﬁnd launched a program called "A employment as a result of new prior year, and output remains qualiﬁed candidates, while Bigger Brazil" that is intended to oil sands investments is expected on a record pace for the full year. others are focusing more eﬀort protect and promote its to grow from 75,000 jobs in 2010 on social media and technology-‐ domes8c industry. to over 900,000 jobs in 2035. based recrui8ng tools. “Canada’s oil sands con8nue to create signiﬁcant long-‐term, well-‐paid, skilled jobs. One of our industry’s most pressing issues is in fact a lack of skilled people to ﬁll the jobs we have today and foresee in the future.” — Dave Collyer, President, Canadian Associa4on of Petroleum Producers Sources: IHS Global Insight –Country Intelligence Reports (October 2011); Mexicos August Unemployment 5.8% Vs 5.4% Year Ago, Wall Street Journal, 09.23.11; Brazils Aug Unemployment Rate 6%, Flat Vs Jul, AE Brazil Newswire, 09.22.11; Lag in Industrial Sector Slows Brazil’s Job Growth, BusinessWeek, 10.18.11; Mexican auto output up 14% from September 2010, MarketWatch, 10.12.11; Canada Talent Market Snapshot, Marke8ng Informa8on, 10.11; Oil 7 sands a Canadian job creator, CAPP, 09.22.11; Feeling the pinch, Calgary Herald, 10.15.11; US Talent Market Monthly, October 2011; Problems -‐-‐ and Solu8ons: We asked HR execu8ves: Whats your biggest challenge? Wall Street Journal, 10.24.11
Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO Average Annual Unemployment Rate TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOBAL LABOR MARKET UPDATE: EMEA 10% 2008 The debt crisis and other factors are puing a damper on economic and labor 5% 2010 market growth across much of the EMEA region. Austerity plans are limi>ng 2012 public sector employment, and ﬁrms remain hesitant to take on addi>onal 0% workers. Germany France U.K. Russia Italy GERMANY FRANCE UNITED KINGDOM RUSSIA The German labor market The labor market remains fragile, The UK labor market shows The unemployment rate con8nues con8nues to show robust as economic uncertainty is con8nuing weakness, as austerity to recover quickly, falling to 6.1% performance despite indica8ons keeping hiring levels soG. measures are causing large job in August compared to an average of a global economic slowdown. Unemployment hit 9.1% in the losses in the public sector, while rate of 7.5% in Q1 2011. The Unemployment fell to a record second quarter and is forecast to concerns over the European debt Russian government expects the low again in September 2011, rise again, signifying the crisis and slowing global growth unemployment rate to drop below while job vacancies con8nue to government’s target rate of 9% have kept private company hiring 6% through 2014. increase. The outlook calls for unemployment by the end of in check. Russian workers’ mobility has con8nued stable employment 2011 will not be met. increased following the recession, Young people have been among growth into 2012. as more employees relocate to According to Frances quarterly the most severely aﬀected by the Wage growth has also been brisk business survey, demand for slowdown in the UK labor pursue beler jobs, higher pay, and in Germany, as companies are manufactured goods weakened market. Unemployment in the improved living condi8ons. issuing raises and higher bonus sharply during the third quarter. age 16-‐24 group is approaching 1 payments, and further reducing Demand is also expected to million, or more than 21%, and ITALY the number of people in short-‐ contract in the fourth quarter of concern is growing that many Italy’s unemployment rate is stable 8me work. The highest wage the year, giving rise to new youths will be out of work for an at around 8%.To help boost growth in Q2 2011 came from worries about the short-‐term extended period given the employment, the government the manufacturing industry, strength of the French economy persistently weak economy. pledged to ease hiring and ﬁring where wages improved by 7.0%. and labor market. rules as part of an austerity plan announced in August 2011. . "Youth unemployment is like a dripping tap, cos8ng tens of millions of pounds a week through beneﬁts and lost produc8vity. And, just like a dripping tap, if we dont do something to ﬁx it, its likely to get much worse.“ — Paul Brown, director of communica4ons at UK youth charity The Princes Trust Sources: IHS Global Insight –Country Intelligence Reports (October 2011); Unemployment rate in Russia might drop to 5.8% by 2014, Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire, 09.22.11; White collar workers becoming more mobile, Moscow News, 10.19.11; Italy’s Jobless Rate Unchanged at 8 Percent as Economy Grows, Bloomberg, 08.31.11; U.K. Unemployment Hits 16-‐Year High, Wall Street Journal Europe, 10.13.11; Youth unemployment: The angry millions, The Independent, 10.11.11; France -‐ Diﬀering job crea8on forecasts for 2012, SIA Daily News, 10.07.11; German unemployment falls to record low in September, Agence France Presse, 09.29.11; Real wages in Germany grow 8 1.9% Y/Y in Q2, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 09.22.11; French job picture dims, Wall Street Journal, 10.26.11
Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO GLOBAL LABOR MARKET UPDATE: APAC Average Annual Unemployment Rate TABLE OF CONTENTS 10% 2008 A slowdown in global demand has caused some modera>on in the strong 5% 2010 growth of APAC labor markets, but the region’s economies s>ll show healthy 2012 job crea>on and an increasing trend towards recrui>ng foreign talent to address skilled labor shortages. 0% Japan China India Australia CHINA JAPAN INDIA AUSTRALIA The Chinese economy generated Japan’s unemployment rate fell Hiring ac8vity is expected to The labor market has cooled 9.9 million jobs in the ﬁrst nine to 4.1%, hiyng its lowest level in moderate through the end of somewhat in 2011 in the wake of months of 2011, exceeding the nearly three years, and job 2011, as global economic soGer global and regional government’s target of crea8ng 9 availability improved slightly in uncertainty is causing a slight demand, but employment trends million jobs for the year. The September 2011. The improved slowdown in the country’s job are stable and op8mis8c headed Chinese government will ﬁgures from September are market. into 2012. con8nue its eﬀorts to boost par8cularly encouraging, as they A growing number of foreign Skills shortages are growing employment by introducing are the ﬁrst to include data from workers, primarily professionals throughout the Australian favorable tax policies and the regions hardest hit by the from the US and Europe, are s8ll economy. In a survey of 300 providing ﬁnancial support. natural disaster in the spring. looking to India for jobs. Hiring of Australian businesses, 61% of China’s largest-‐ever college Japanese companies are looking expatriates has increased an respondents reported skills gradua8ng class, 6.6 million, hit to alleviate a cri8cal long-‐term es8mated 15-‐20% in 2011. There shortages in 2011, up from 51% the labor market in the summer challenge–a shrinking workforce are currently as many as 40,000 the previous year. Many ﬁrms of 2011. Concerns remain about –by hiring and promo8ng more expat professionals working in say they prefer to train the country’s ability to create women. Japanese women are various industries in India, Australian employees in order to enough high-‐quality posi8ons to also increasingly interested in job par8cularly in the banking and meet future skill needs, but some accommodate the growing opportuni8es to help ease family ﬁnancial services, automobile, are sponsoring foreign workers in number of educated workers. economic concerns. pharmaceu8cal, energy and order to ﬁll the gaps. retail sectors. "There will be a heavy reliance on bringing people in from overseas. Even with the training of Australians, we have expecta8ons that [impor8ng foreign workers] will con8nue to grow." — Karen Waller, Head of Migra4on, KPMG Australia Sources: IHS Global Insight –Country Intelligence Reports (October 2011); Labour shortages grow by 10%, re8rement of baby boomers a challenge for SMEs, SmartCompany.au, 10.10.11; India Incs hiring outlook for Oct-‐Dec quarter takes a bea8ng, India Times, 10.14.11; Booming economy: India Inc expats’ hiring up 20% this year, India Times, 10.10.11; Japan Jobless Rate Falls to 4.3 Pct in Aug, Jiji Press, 09.29.11; Firms Turning to Women for Growth, Nikkei Report, 08.27.11; China exceeds employment target, Economic Times, 10.25.11; Amid China boom, job search for many grads goes bust, Reuters, 09.13.11; Japans jobless rate drops to lowest in three years, DPA, 10.28.11 9
Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS LEGISLATIVE UPDATE desire to boost domes>c worker par>cipa>on is driving employment legisla>on in Singapore and Saudi Arabia, while easing A restric>ons for employers is the impetus for changes to the labor code in Hungary and Spain. In the US, the “hot bumon” issue of classiﬁca>on of independent contractors illustrates the dichotomy between the desire for ﬂexibility and the need for regula>on. RUSSIA FRANCE Government is considering Employers with 50 or more plans to eliminate labor employees must have a gender books, the mandatory equality ac8on plan or method of employment UNITED STATES documenta8on and beneﬁt CHINA collec8ve agreement in place The IRS has launched a limited veriﬁca8on for all workers. As of October 2011, by January 1, 2012. amnesty program that will enable foreign employees who employers to resolve past worker work in China must classiﬁca8on issues. In addi8on, HUNGARY enroll in the social INDIA proposed legisla8on would create Reduced unemployment beneﬁts and insurance system. Approved a na8onal manufacturing stricter record-‐keeping introduced employer-‐friendly amendments policy that aims to increase requirements for companies that to the labor code, including looser produc8on capabili8es, improve hire independent contractors. provisions for over8me work and manufacturing infrastructure, and compensa8on, and more restric8ons on create 100 million addi8onal jobs. vaca8on 8me and childcare leave. SINGAPORE Tightening eligibility SPAIN requirements for THAILAND The government is temporarily liGing the Reviewing plans to ins8tute a expatriates seeking restric8ons requiring employers to oﬀer na8onal minimum wage. Currently professional employment ARGENTINA visas as of January 2012. permanent posi8ons to workers with there are more than 30 minimum Eﬀec8ve September two or more ﬁxed-‐term contracts. wages that vary by city. 2011, the minimum wage increased by 25%. SAUDI ARABIA By the end of November 2011, employers must comply with laws that mandate quotas of Saudi workers or face puni8ve measures. Sources: Aon Hewil Global Legisla8ve Developments (July-‐September 2011); Washington DC Employment Law Update, Liller Mendelson, 09.23.11 and 10.17.11; India Cabinet Approves Na8onal Manufacturing Policy, Wall Street Journal Online, 10.25.11 10
U.S. Labor Market Overview FOURTH QUARTER l 2011
Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS U.S. EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS PAYROLLS RISE, BUT UNEMPLOYMENT U.S. MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINS STUBBORNLY HIGH 600 11.0 Unemployment Rate (%) Employment (000’s) U.S. employers hired 103,000 new 300 10.0 workers in September, slightly ahead of 9.0 analysts’ modest growth expecta8ons. 0 Hiring totals for July and August were 8.0 -‐300 revised up by a combined 99,000 jobs, 7.0 another encouraging sign that is helping -‐600 6.0 ease concerns about the threat of a -‐900 5.0 Jul-‐08 Jan-‐09 Jul-‐09 Jan-‐10 Jul-‐10 Jan-‐11 Jul-‐11 Oct-‐08 Oct-‐09 Oct-‐10 Apr-‐09 Apr-‐10 Apr-‐11 double-‐dip recession. Private employers again accounted for all of September’s job growth, as Non-‐Farm Employment Private-‐Sector Employment Unemployment Rate government payrolls con8nue to shrink in response to rising budget deﬁcits. Government payrolls fell 34,000 over the month and have shed nearly 300,000 EMPLOYMENT OVERVIEW jobs since last September. SEPT AUG JULY JUNE MAY The na8on’s jobless rate held at 9.1% for a third consecu8ve month in September, Total non-‐farm employment growth 103K 57K 127K 20K 53K however, and will not see any signiﬁcant improvement un8l the economy can Private employment growth 137K 42K 173K 75K 99K consistently create a minimum of 150,000 jobs a month. Unemployment rate 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.2% 9.1% EMPLOYERS REMAIN HESITANT TO HIRE The current ‘jobless recovery” has now dragged on for more than two years, with employment growth averaging just 95,000 jobs per month since the start of 2010. Job crea8on in 2011 has ﬁnally eclipsed the 1 million mark, surpassing the modest hiring totals achieved last year, and the U.S. is on track to add 1.4 million workers by the end of the year. At this pace, total U.S. employment will ﬁnish the year more than 6 million jobs below the pre-‐recessionary peak. 12
Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS U.S. LABOR MARKET -‐ SUPPLY AND DEMAND THE U.S. SUPPLY/DEMAND GAP WIDENS There were more than 3.5 unemployed workers for every online adver8sed vacancy in the U.S. in October, as the number of U.S. MARKET -‐ MONTHLY LABOR DEMAND VS. LABOR SUPPLY online job ads con8nues to decrease and unemployment remains high. Na8onally, there are nearly 10 million more unemployed 16 workers than adver8sed job vacancies. Millions 14 DEMAND LEVELS VARY BY REGION – LARGEST GAP IN THE WEST 12 An up8ck in demand for jobs in the Northeast and South regions was oﬀset by larger declines in vacancies in the Midwest and 10 West. In the West, there are more than 4 unemployed workers for each vacancy adver8sed. 8 6 HEALTHCARE, SCI/TECH WORKERS STILL IN HIGH DEMAND The number of adver8sed vacancies for healthcare prac88oners 4 and computer and math occupa8ons con8nues to outnumber job 2 seekers by more than two to one. The life, physical and social sciences category also shows job demand outstripping supply. 0 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 11 Dec 08 Mar 09 Dec 09 Mar 11 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 11 Sep 10 Mar 10 Jun 10 Dec 10 CONSTRUCTION WORKERS CONTINUE TO SUFFER An es8mated 1.4 million construc8on workers remain out of work as of September. While job pos8ng volumes have risen nearly 50% in the past year, there remains nearly 19 unemployed # of online ads # of unemployed workers construc8on workers for every online adver8sed vacancy. “We have no clear sign that demand is picking up. The drop of 513,000 in demand over the last seven months has largely oﬀset the gain of 763,000 in early 2011.” — June Shelp, Vice President, The Conference Board, October 2011 Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL), 10.31.11. 13
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