Quarterly Market Trends: Fourth Quarter 2013
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  • 1. Foreword January 2014 Dear CCIM Institute members, Welcome to the fourth-quarter 2013 edition of CCIM Institute’s Quarterly Market Trends. The report provides timely insight into major commercial real estate indicators for core income-producing properties. It is produced by the National Association of Realtors® in conjunction with and for members of the CCIM Institute, the commercial real estate industry’s global standard for professional achievement. The fourth-quarter 2013 report features commentary from Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., NAR chief economist, and George Ratiu, director of NAR’s quantitative and commercial research. It also includes market data collected from CCIM members that illustrate regional economic and transactional trends across the U.S. I’d like to thank the CCIM members who participated in the survey and shared insights on their local markets. I hope that the information provided in CCIM’s Quarterly Market Trends report provides both economic and commercial real estate market information that will assist you in your business strategies in 2014 and beyond. Sincerely, Karl Landreneau, CCIM 2014 CCIM Institute President klandreneau@latterblum.com CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 2
  • 2. Table of Contents U.S. Economic Overview p. 4 Commercial Real Estate Forecast p. 8 CCIM Market and Transaction Highlights p. 16 Commercial Property Sector Analysis p. 17 CCIM Survey Results p. 20 U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook p. 24 Sponsors p. 29 Contributors p. 30 CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 3
  • 3. U.S. Economic Overview The U.S. economy is expected to continue its slow upward trajectory through 2015. A wide variety of economic variables can impact commercial real estate sales, but trends in three key variables — gross domestic product, employment, and interest rates— generally summarize the outlook for commercial real estate in the near term. GDP and employment are in coupled with a normal economic slowdown, a slow growth mode, and interest rates are projected resulting in a sharp recession, significantly lower to continue to be favorable to sales. Accordingly, the levels of consumer confidence, and high levels commercial real estate sales outlook is positive, but of unemployment. Annual real GDP growth has at the same time mediocre. averaged 2.3 percent since the end of the Great Recession in second-quarter 2009, and historically The slower than expected economic expansion and growth above 3 percent has followed recessions lingering uncertainties from the Great Recession in the 1970s-2000s. Lower than normal levels of are slowing job creation. The real level of economic household formation, decreased state and local expansion continues to be forecasted at less than 3 government expenditures, a mediocre level of percent, a rate that would signify a normal expansion consumer confidence, and significant losses in economy. household wealth have contributed to the relatively low level of economic growth. GDP Growth The Great Recession appears to have been caused Wealth effects initially held back the economic by the confluence of excessive financial speculation expansion: Approximately $6.5 trillion of housing CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 4
  • 4. U.S. Economic Overview wealth was eliminated from fourth-quarter 2006 Job Growth to fourth-quarter 2011 as home prices declined, The economy needs to create an average of 125,000 according to Federal Reserve Bank data. Coupled additional jobs per month just to stay even with with major declines in the stock markets, this population growth. Since the end of the Great deleveraging consumer Recession job growth has averaged 124,000 new confidence and spending decisions by corporations, jobs per month, according to the Bureau of Labor consumers, and governments. Statistics. As of October 2013, approximately 20 negatively impacted million people were unemployed or employed part Uncertainties about the economy were also illustrated time for economic reasons, according to a BLS by unusually low levels of consumer confidence. The Household Survey, and the monthly job creation rate Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which measures reported through October 2013 was 186,000 per the level of economic uncertainty, reached historical month. highs in August 2011. At current job creation rates, it will take 58 months Finally, weak consumer demand, increasing economic to get unemployment down to 5 percent with no inequality, and the growth of low-pay part-time jobs improvement in part-time workers who would continue to be causative factors in the economy’s like full-time jobs. In addition, the labor force has slowness. Income flows are circular in the economy. dropped from 65.7 percent in January 2009 to 62.8 As such, the significant growth of the number of percent in 2013, which accounts for the elimination consumers with lower incomes has been cited as a of approximately 7 million jobs. Some of the labor major negative impact on consumer expenditures. force dropouts probably represent discouraged workers leaving the labor force. CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 5
  • 5. U.S. Economic Overview Job creation is a major driver of the demand for debt solvency issues can be resolved at the national commercial real estate, and currently this driver is level, that major European economies will continue weaker than it should be under normal conditions. to improve, and that major political risks do not As such, slow job creation appears to be the result of generate economic disasters. The current forecast is a weak recovery from the Great Recession coupled based on a continuation of current economic trends with ongoing economic uncertainty. absent exceptional economic drama. Interest Rates Assuming that there are no surprises or shocks Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to the economy, no major tax increases, and that System to end quantitative easing at some point government spending continues at current levels, in 2014. Interest rates are expected to rise, but the economy is projected to grow moderately for the are projected to continue to be relatively low by next three years. Both monetary and fiscal policy have historic standards. In addition, the Fed is expected been relatively expansionary, although tempered to continue to support an expanding economy by sequestration and modestly rising interest through relatively easy monetary policy. This rates. Despite sequestration and government belt is good news for commercial sales prospects. tightening, the federal government continues to run at a substantial deficit. State and local governments Subpar Expansion— Is It the New Normal? as a whole do not appear to be in a mode for All forecasts are based on a myriad of economic additional cutbacks. assumptions, i.e., that there will be no unforeseen changes in Federal budgets, that a monetary crisis The economic forecast is based largely on the will not freeze financial markets, that taxation and assumption of repeated historical relationships in CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 6
  • 6. U.S. Economic Overview terms of consumer behavior, asset prices, and domestic consumer confidence is well below the 100 level that and international transactions. Trends in asset prices (e.g., one would expect during an expanding economy stocks, housing prices, oil prices, international exchange and the monthly economic policy uncertainty index, rates) are essentially unpredictable, but are assumed to which is based on newspaper coverage, federal tax be favorable. The assumption of the absence of surprises code provisions, and disagreements among economic or shocks to the economy means that the economy will forecasters, continues to be relatively unfavorable. continue to grow. The bottom line is: There continues to be substantial economic uncertainty. Both economic and non-economic factors coupled with the lingering wealth effects from the Great Recession In short, the combination of uncertainties and the appear to be holding the economy back. The National lingering effects of the Great Recession appear to Federation of Independent Businesses has reported both continue to hold back GDP and job growth potential. demand/poor sales (the economic factor) and government Consequently, both a recession and robust growth regulatory requirements (the non-economic factor) as appear to be unlikely in the next few years. While the problems holding back the economy. outlook is positive, it remains mediocre as it is strongly influenced by uncertainties and perceptions about Uncertainties about quantitative easing, fundamental current government policies. If these exogenous budgetary and sequestration disagreements in Congress, factors were to change unexpectedly (and this is a hiring concerns reported to be a result of changes in medical distinct upside possibility given that we are dealing to insurance programs, and general business concerns appear a significant degree with political and psychological to be keeping business optimism at lower than normal issues), the forecast could become significantly more levels and negatively impacting hiring decisions. In addition, positive in 2014. CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 7
  • 7. Commercial Real Estate Forecast Fundamentals Third-quarter 2013 economic activity—as measured by GDP—witnessed a solid 3.6 percent growth. Some of that positive growth spilled over into commercial real estate markets. Net absorption figures were positive, and modest new construction led to steady vacancy declines. CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 8
  • 8. Commercial Real Estate Forecast Commercial Property Sector Overview Nashville, Tenn. (12.7 percent). Asking rents advanced 0.3 percent in the third quarter based on data from Office Reis. Rents are projected to rise 2.4 percent by the The office sector remained bound to modest end of the year. employment gains in office-using industries. After staying flat for the previous two quarters, office Industrial vacancies declined 10 basis points in the third quarter. International trade increased in the third quarter, Compared with a year ago, availability rates were leading to a positive trade balance. Port and 30 basis points lower. Demand for office properties intermodal markets reaped most of the benefits remained moderate, with net absorption totaling from the activity, posting stronger occupancy and 5.4 million square feet, according to Reis. For the rent rates. However, on a national level, demand fourth quarter, net absorption is projected to reach for industrial space was moderate. Third-quarter 13.4 million sf. The best performing markets during absorption totaled 14.5 million square feet, according the quarter were those clustered in technology and to Reis. On the other hand, the supply of new energy industries, including Houston, Austin, Texas, industrial buildings reached its post-2009 peak, Dallas, Boston, Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle. totaling 7.4 million sf. Due to the supply increase, vacancy rates declined 10 basis points from second Office vacancy rates are estimated to close the year quarter, and 70 basis points on a yearly basis. at an average 15.7 percent. Regionally, the markets with the lowest projected vacancy rates in the fourth Availability rates are projected to decline to an quarter are New York (9.8 percent), Washington, D.C. average 9.3 percent for the year. Markets with the (9.9 percent), Little Rock, Ark., (12.0 percent), and lowest fourth quarter estimated vacancy rates include CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 9
  • 9. Commercial Real Estate Forecast Orange County, Calif. (3.9 percent), Los Angeles Retail vacancy is expected to drop to 10.5 percent (4.0 percent), Miami (6.0 percent), and Seattle (6.3 by the end of the fourth quarter. Coastal markets percent). Asking rents for industrial space rose 0.4 retain their supremacy in terms of vacancies and rent percent in the third quarter and are projected to growth, with California, New York City suburbs, and gain 2.3 percent for the year. Washington, D.C., and its suburbs at the top. Two markets offer projected vacancy rates below 5.0 Retail percent, including Fairfield County, Conn., and San Political uncertainty in Washington, D.C., and the Francisco. Asking rents rose 0.3 percent in the third threat of government shutdown loomed large in quarter, and are estimated to increase 1.4 percent by the third quarter. Though GDP during the quarter the end of 2013. was solid, it is expected to have slowed drastically to about 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Consumer Multifamily confidence remained muted, leading to soft spending Despite investor concerns about the apartment at the retail level. As a result, demand for retail space market’s performance, demand for multifamily was weak, with absorption totaling 2.3 million square properties remained strong in the third quarter. feet according to Reis. Meanwhile, the volume of According to Reis, net absorption totaled 41,283 new construction hit a yearly peak, with 1.5 million units during the quarter. The supply of apartments square feet coming online. The combination kept also grew, adding 36,269 new units on the market. vacancy rates flat in the third quarter compared with In turn, the vacancy rate slid 10 basis points during the second. On a yearly basis, availability was down the third quarter. Availability rates are expected to 30 basis points. close the year at 4.1 percent. Metro markets with the lowest projected vacancies are topped by New CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 10
  • 10. Commercial Real Estate Forecast Haven, Conn., with a rate of 1.9 percent, followed by Syracuse, N.Y., Minneapolis, and San Diego. Asking apartment rents increased 1.0 percent in the third quarter and are expected to rise at a 4.0 percent yearly rate during 2013. Investment Conditions Commercial real estate investments posted an upbeat third quarter. Sales of major properties (greater than $2.5 million) advanced 26 percent on a yearly basis during the quarter, totaling $89.7 billion, according to Real Capital Analytics. Investors were drawn to a few specific property types, leading to double- or triple-digit growth rates: Sales of retail properties rose 104 percent on a yearly basis, while industrial sales volume jumped 70 percent. Sales of properties at the lower end of the price range (less than $2.5 million) increased 11 percent on a yearly basis. Based on three quarters of data and fourth quarter projections, total sales volume is expected to surpass 2012’s $300 billion. CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS Source: Real Capital Analytics A major portion of total sales volume during the third quarter was made up of portfolio sales, which totaled $30.2 billion. Blackstone was involved in two major portfolio sales transactions – an apartment portfolio NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 11
  • 11. Commercial Real Estate Forecast and an industrial portfolio -- totaling more than $3.1 billion. Sprint Realty Capital spent $7.7 billion on a portfolio of mixed properties. On the individual property side, office transactions dominated the market for top properties. The building at 650 Madison Ave. in New York sold for $1.3 billion in the third quarter, taking the top spot. It was followed by several office properties including City National Plaza and One Wilshire in Los Angeles, which traded for $858 million and $439 million, respectively. With sales volume on the rise, 23 metropolitan markets surpassed the $1 billion sales volume in the Property Price Index. Apartments continued to third quarter alone. Manhattan retained the top outperform the other sectors, with prices gaining 14 spot, followed closely by Los Angeles and Houston. percent. The average apartment unit price reached Investor interest in secondary and tertiary markets $107,240. Retail properties witnessed a 12 percent also remained a strong trend in the third quarter. price appreciation, trading for an average $170 psf. Markets such as Nashville, Tenn., Phoenix, Seattle, Prices for office buildings rose 9 percent, changing and Denver closed sales in excess of $1.0 billion. hands for an average of $233 psf. Finally, industrial properties posted average prices of $65 psf, a 1 With rising demand, prices advanced 9.3 percent in percent decline from one year ago. the third quarter according to RCA’s Commercial CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 12
  • 12. Commercial Real Estate Forecast Commercial property capitalization rates increased 7 basis points to an average 6.8 percent nationally across all property types, based on RCA data. For properties under $2.5 million, prices increased 4 percent year over year, based on survey data from the National Association of REALTORS®, while cap rates increased 50 basis points to an average 9.2 percent. As asset values rose, new commercial distress continued on a downward trend. New distress in the third quarter accounted for $2.5 billion, a 30 percent decline from the same period in 2012. Workouts stayed constant during the quarter, averaging $9 to $10 billion, according to RCA. CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS Capital Markets Diversification in lending sources continued, and capital availability increased as values of underlying assets rose. Even in the face of rising mortgage rates, spreads for commercial properties stayed even, due to increased lender competition. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 13
  • 13. Commercial Real Estate Forecast Commercial mortgage-backed securities were a strong markets had a bevy of financing choices, secondary contender in the market, accounting for 24 percent of markets found CMBS, government agencies, and funding during the first half of the year. National banks national banks to play the lead role in transaction and government agencies accounted for 16 percent financing. In tertiary markets, CMBS covered over and 18 percent, respectively. one-third of all financing, followed by government agencies. Capital availability for transactions under However, the financing picture was not evenly focused $2.5 million remained constrained, with cash as across property types or markets. Based on RCA the main source of financing for 33 percent of all data, CMBS issuance made up the bulk of retail and transactions, according to data from the National hotel deals, representing 45 percent and 42 percent Association of REALTORS®. respectively of total volume. In the apartment sector, government agencies provided 54 percent of funding, dwarfing the next closest source, regional/local banks (11 percent). For office and industrial deals, the capital sources proved to be more evenly represented by the major lending groups. Meanwhile, while major CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 14
  • 14. Commercial Real Estate Forecast Commercial Real Estate Outlook In general, commercial sales and employment vary together. Given that the economy is currently expanding and producing additional jobs, the outlook for the commercial sector is positive, although possibly modest. The outlook for 2014 calls for continuing growth in commercial investments as commercial fundamentals ride an upward trajectory. With economic growth projected at 2.5 percent annual rate (swings in quarterly data notwithstanding), commercial markets will find absorption rising and lifting rents along with it. Although uncertainties remain about the federal budget and how businesses will absorb the Affordable Care Act, other segments of the economy are rising and as such it will likely mean stronger spending on the business and consumer sides. CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 15
  • 15. CCIM Market and Transaction Highlights CCIM members provided insights into their markets in a November 2013 survey. • 57% of CCIM members indicated more deals in 4Q13 compared to same period the year before. • Deals were a function of buyer demand: 61% of respondents indicated more inquiries related to buying, while 8% had more inquiries about wanting to sell. • Property prices continued to firm in 4Q13—32% of respondents reported prices similar to last year, while 46% reported higher prices. • Rents increased, with 48% of CCIMs indicating higher rents versus the prior year; 35% of respondents indicated similar rents year over year. • Cap rates were reported to be stable, with 56% of practitioners indicating rates in line with last year; 34% dealt with lower rates. • 45% of respondents expect rents and prices to move together in the next one to three years. 23% said rent growth will outpace price growth, while 32% indicated the opposite, with prices expected to outperform rents. • Interest rate increases tempered in 4Q13—47% of members think that Treasury yields will remain about the same; 23% of respondents indicated that Treasury yields will rise, but will only minimally impact cap rates due to the current spreads; and 11% of CCIMs said that Treasury yields will rise and force cap rates upward. • 27% of respondents indicated meaningful improvement in credit availability in the third quarter compared to last year, while 59% reported marginal improvement. • Current credit conditions are expected to improve, according to 51% of CCIM respondents, while 41% consider the current tightness to be the new normal. CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 16
  • 16. Commercial Property Sector Analysis The following highlights reflect CCIM members’ local and regional economic, transaction, and property market activity as measured in a November 2013 intelligence survey. National Office Markets • Deal flow was higher in the third quarter for 64 percent of CCIM members. • Property prices were higher for 46 percent of CCIM, while 33 percent found them to be flat. • Cap rates were even for 64 percent of CCIMs, and lower for 28 percent of respondents. • Rental income was at similar levels for 41 percent of respondents; higher for 44 percent of CCIMs. • 62 percent of respondents had more serious inquiries related to buying. Source: Real Capital Analytics National Industrial Markets • Industrial deal flow was higher on a yearly basis for 56 percent of respondents. • Prices were even for 34 percent of CCIMs, and higher for 51 percent. • Cap rates were even for 62 percent, while 28 percent reported lower cap rates. • 53 percent of CCIM members reported higher rents. CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 17
  • 17. Commercial Property Sector Analysis Source: Real Capital Analytics National Retail Markets • Retail deals moved upwards for 51 percent of CCIMs. • Prices were unchanged for 36 percent of respondents, and higher for 42 percent. • Cap rates were the same for 51 percent of CCIMs, and lower for 37 percent. • Rental income increased for 46 percent of CCIM members. Source: Real Capital Analytics CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 18
  • 18. Commercial Property Sector Analysis National Apartment Markets • 56 percent of CCIM members reported more deals in the second quarter than last year. • Prices were higher for 55 percent of respondents. • Cap rates stayed the same for 46 percent of members and lower for 42 percent. • Rental income rose for 53 percent of CCIMs. Source: Real Capital Analytics National Hotel Markets • Sales of hotels were higher for 75 percent of CCIMs. • Prices increased for 75 percent of respondents. • Cap rates were the same for 50 percent of CCIMs and lower for 38 percent of members. • 88 percent reported more serious inquiries related to buying hotel properties. Source: Real Capital Analytics CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 19
  • 19. CCIM Survey Results % 1. Compared to this time last year, how is your deal flow? > More deals than this time last year 56.9% > About the same as this time last year 32.9% > Fewer deals than this time last year 10.2% 2. Property price compared with prices one year ago. > The property price is higher now than if sold last year 46.2% > About the same as last year 31.7% > The property price is lower now than if sold last year 7.4% > Cannot say because it is difficult to compare, or had no transaction this year 14.7% 3. Level of rental income (net rent after all concessions) compared with one year ago. > Rents are higher by more than 5% 11.9% > Rents are higher by 1% to 5% 36.2% > About the same as last year 34.6% > Rents are lower by 1% to 5% 5.8% > Rents are lower by more than 5% 2.7% > Don’t know 8.8% 4. Cap rates compared with one year ago. > Higher cap rates 10.8% > About the same 55.7% > Lower cap rates 33.5% CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 20
  • 20. CCIM Survey Results % 5. Cap rates in your current market. > Apartment/Multifamily 6.6% > Office CBD 7.7% > Office Suburban 8.0% > Industrial Warehouse 7.8% > Industrial Flex 7.9% > Retail 7.5% > Hotel/Lodging 7.7% > Development 9.1% > Land 8.8% 6. Compared to this time last year, how would you qualify buyer interest? > More serious inquiries related to buying 61.3% > Fewer serious inquiries related to buying 9.6% > More serious inquiries related to selling 8.3% > Fewer serious inquiries related to selling 2.9% > About the same number of serious inquiries 17.9% 7. Current difference in perception (that is, the gap in cap rates) compared to one year ago. > The gap is narrowing with a better chance of completing a deal 45.6% > The gap is about the same 43.1% > The gap is widening with less chance of completing a deal 11.3% CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 21
  • 21. CCIM Survey Results % 8. Current financing conditions compared to conditions one year ago. > Credit availability has meaningfully improved from last year 27.1% > Credit availability has only marginally improved 58.6% > Credit availability is just as tight as last year with no improvement 11.4% > Credit availability has turned for the worse and is even tighter than last year 2.9% 9. Expectation regarding financing over next 2 to 3 years. > The current tight conditions are the new normal because of new financial market regulations 40.8% > Credit will be more readily accessible over time 50.9% > Credit will become even more difficult to access over time 8.3% 10. Clients’ expectation related to future spread outlook over next 2 to 3 years. > Treasury yields will rise and force cap rates upward by roughly the same magnitude 10.8% > Treasury yields will rise, but it will only minimally impact cap rates because of the current 22.7%  wide buffer zone (the gap between cap rate and Treasury yield) > Treasury yields will remain about the same for an extended period and cap rates will also 47.1%  remain about the same as now > Treasury yields will remain low for an extended period and cap rates will fall closer to 12.2% historical spreads (from the current wide gap) > Cap rates will fall, independent of how Treasury yields move 5.3% > Both Treasury yields and cap rates will fall 2.0% CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 22
  • 22. CCIM Survey Results % 11. Expectation regarding rent growth and property prices over the next 2 to 3 years. > Rent growth will outpace price growth 23.2% > Rent growth will lag behind price growth 31.8% > Both rent growth and price growth will move roughly the same amount 45.0% CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 23
  • 23. U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013 vs. 2012)* Unemployment Claims (2013 vs. 2012)** Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012) Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)** Phoenix AZ B 75.00 -20% -7% 2% 23% Tucson AZ B 84.38 -20% -7% 1% 26% Los Angeles CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 2% 31% San Bernardino/ Riverside CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 1% 57% Sacramento CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 1% 49% San Diego CA A 87.50 -25% -8% 2% 9% San Francisco CA B 78.13 -25% -8% 1% 23% San Jose CA B 75.00 -25% -8% 2% 13% Colorado Springs CO A 90.63 -13% -5% 1% 19% Denver CO C 71.88 -13% -5% 3% 45% Hartford CT A 93.75 -14% -4% 1% 12% Washington DC C 68.75 -6% 17% 1% 20% Jacksonville FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 2% 6% Miami FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 2% 65% Orlando FL C 65.63 -7% -10% 3% 42% Tampa-St. FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 3% 30% GA C 65.63 -10% -14% 3% 68% Petersburg Atlanta CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 24
  • 24. U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013 vs. 2012)* Unemployment Claims (2013 vs. 2012)** Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012) Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)** Chicago IL B 75.00 -3% -1% 1% 34% Indianapolis IN B 84.38 -5% -13% 1% 38% Lexington KY C 68.75 -9% -9% 2% 56% Louisville KY B 75.00 -9% -9% 2% 1% New Orleans LA B 81.25 -2% -20% 1% 16% Boston MA A 87.50 -26% -5% 2% 32% Baltimore MD C 68.75 -4% -6% 1% 25% Detroit MI A 87.50 -14% -9% 1% 39% Minneapolis MN B 75.00 -15% -7% 2% 29% St. Louis MO B 81.25 -5% -9% 0% 4% Kansas City MO C 68.75 -5% -9% 1% 55% Greensboro/ Winston-Salem NC A 87.50 -12% -18% 2% -7% Raleigh-Durham NC B 75.00 -12% -18% 2% 7% Charlotte NC B 75.00 -12% -18% 3% 23% Omaha NE A 87.50 -9% -11% 1% 27% Albuquerque NM A 87.50 -9% -25% 1% 19% Las Vegas NV B 78.13 -25% -7% 2% 23% Buffalo NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 1% 91% CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 25
  • 25. U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013 vs. 2012)* Unemployment Claims (2013 vs. 2012)** Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012) Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)** New York NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 2% 35% Cleveland OH B 81.25 -7% -11% -1% 42% Columbus OH B 78.13 -7% -11% 1% 40% Cincinnati OH B 84.38 -7% -11% 1% 36% Oklahoma City OK B 75.00 -11% -20% 2% 41% Tulsa OK A 90.63 -11% -20% 2% 0% Portland OR B 81.25 -15% -13% 2% 40% Pittsburgh PA B 84.38 -9% -3% 2% 29% Philadelphia PA B 84.38 -9% -3% 1% 18% Providence RI A 96.88 -16% -7% 1% 21% Charleston SC C 71.88 -6% -11% 1% -2% Columbia SC A 87.50 -6% -11% 1% 8% Greenville SC B 81.25 -6% -11% 1% 38% Knoxville TN B 75.00 -4% -8% 1% 55% Nashville TN D 62.50 -4% -8% 3% 40% Chattanooga TN B 81.25 -4% -8% 0% 16% Memphis TN C 71.88 -4% -8% 0% 6% Austin TX C 68.75 -13% 0% 3% 19% Dallas TX B 75.00 -13% 0% 3% 18% CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 26
  • 26. U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013 vs. 2012)* Unemployment Claims (2013 vs. 2012)** Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012) Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)** Houston TX B 75.00 -13% 0% 3% 26% San Antonio TX B 81.25 -13% 0% 1% 5% Salt Lake City UT B 78.13 -10% -8% 2% 33% Richmond VA B 81.25 -13% -8% 1% 32% Seattle WA B 78.13 -10% -10% 2% 5% Milwaukee WI B 84.38 -10% -10% 0% 8% Birmingham AL D 62.50 -3% -10% -1% -6% Little Rock AR B 75.00 -4% -10% 1% -35% New Haven CT B 84.38 -14% -4% 0% 13% Wichita KS B 84.38 -8% -2% 0% 24% Rochester NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 1% -4% Syracuse NY A 87.50 -15% -3% 1% -11% Dayton OH B 81.25 -7% -11% -1% 28% Ventura County CA A 87.50 -25% -8% 2% 8% Westchester NY A 87.50 -15% -3% 0% -5% Norfolk/Hampton Roads VA B 84.38 -13% -8% 2% 26% Tacoma WA B 84.38 -10% -10% 0% 5% Orange County CA B 78.13 -25% -8% 0% 73% CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 27
  • 27. U.S. Metropolitan Economic Outlook City State Score Leading Indicator Bankruptcy Filings (2013 vs. 2012)* Unemployment Claims (2013 vs. 2012)** Employed (Oct. 2013 vs. Oct. 2012) Total Permits (2013 vs. 2012)** Palm Beach FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 2% 17% Fairfield County CT A 87.50 -14% -4% -1% 10% Fort Lauderdale FL C 68.75 -7% -10% 3% 65% Fort Worth TX B 75.00 -13% 0% 4% 18% Long Island NY B 84.38 -15% -3% 2% 35% Northern New Jersey NJ C 68.75 -14% 20% 2% 33% Oakland-East Bay CA B 84.38 -25% -8% 1% 23% Suburban Maryland MD C 71.88 -4% -6% 2% 20% Suburban Virginia VA B 84.38 -13% -8% 0% 20% Durham NC C 71.88 -12% -18% 3% 0% Raleigh-Cary NC B 75.00 -12% -18% 2% 7% Central New Jersey NJ C 65.63 -14% 20% -1% 54% * October 2012 through September 2013 vs. October 2011 through September 2012 **November 2012 through October 2013 vs. November 2011 through October 2012 CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 28
  • 28. Sponsors CCIM INSTITUTE Since 1969, the Chicago-based CCIM Institute has conferred the Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) designation to commercial real estate and allied professionals through an extensive curriculum of 200 classroom hours and professional experiential requirements. Currently, there are 9,000 CCIMs in 1,000 markets in the U.S. and 31 countries worldwide. Another 3,000 practitioners are pursuing the designation, making the Institute one of the largest commercial real estate networks in the world. An affiliate of the National Association of REALTORS®, the CCIM Institute’s recognized curriculum, networking programs, and the powerful technology tool, Site To Do Business (site analysis and demographics resource), positively impact and influence the commercial real estate industry. Visit www.ccim.com for more information. CCIM INSTITUTE 2014 EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP B.K. Allen, CCIM Interim Executive Vice President/CEO bkallen@ccim.com Karl Landreneau, CCIM President Mark Macek, CCIM President-Elect Steven W. Moreira, CCIM First Vice President Craig Blorstad, CCIM Treasurer CCIM Institute 430 North Michigan Ave., Suite 800 Chicago, IL 60611 312-321-4460 www.ccim.com NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® The Mission of the National Association of REALTORS® Research Division is to collect and disseminate timely, accurate and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, and policy makers and the media in a professional and accessible manner. The Research Division monitors and analyzes economic indicators, including gross domestic product, retail sales, industrial production, producer price index, and employment data that impact commercial markets over time. Additionally, NAR Research examines how changes in the economy affect the commercial real estate business, and evaluates regulatory and legislative policy proposals for their impact on REALTORS®, their clients and America’s property owners. The Research Division provides several products covering commercial real estate including: • Commercial Real Estate Outlook • Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Market Survey • Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey • Commercial Member Profile To find out about other products from NAR’s Research Division, visit www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® RESEARCH DIVISION National Association of REALTORS® 500 New Jersey Ave. N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 800-874-6500 www.realtors.org ©2014 The CCIM Institute and National Association of REALTORS®. All rights reserved. Lawrence Yun, PhD Sr. Vice President, Chief Economist lyun@realtors.org George Ratiu Director, Quantitative & Commercial Research gratiu@realtors.org CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS Ken Fears Director, Regional Economics & Housing Finance Policy kfears@realtors.org NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 29
  • 29. Contributors Lisa Sands VIP Realty-Commercial Fort Myers FL Randy Summers Davis Equity Realty Weslaco TX Mike Foster Coldwell Banker Commercial Grand Junction CO Ralph Duarte Sperry Van Ness Bethesda MD Robert W. Drayton City of Charlotte Charlotte NC Christopher M. Gibbons Venture Commercial Dallas TX Charles A Larkin Diversified Real Estate, LLC Watertown SD Vladimir Golik Keller Williams Realty Miami FL Gary Tang Hannah Investment, Inc. Albany CA Aaron Banard Cushman & Wakefield Northmarq Mendota Heights MN Michael Wax Industrial Park Associates Oxnard CA Brad Cooper Nai Brannen Goddard Atlanta GA John Quinn McEnearney Commercial Alexandria VA Kenneth Kujawa CENTURY 21 Signature Realty Saginaw MI James Conklin 7D Commercial Real Estate Floyds Knobs IN Maria Palmar Jolie Powell Realty Port Jefferson NY Angie Sumner Fowler Commercial, LLC Prescott Valley AZ Andie Edmonds ARIS Group Bend OR Craig Evans Cassidy Turley New York NY Heidi Ho Century 21 All Islands Honolulu HI Dan Stauffer McCoy Corporation San Marcos TX Mark Rykovich Clarity Strategic Opportunities, LLC Naperville IL Kenneth Krawczyk K.S.K. Services, Inc. Pewaukee WI Pam Rushing Coldwell Banker Commercial Salem OR Ann Samuelson Suntree Inc., Realtors Seaside OR Sharon Carz REO Property Specialists Los Angeles CA Paul Mader Michael Tanzillo & Company Castro Valley CA Larry Goldman Remax Commercial Overland Park KS Bogumila Kowalec All Connect Realty Port Saint Lucie FL Dale Dockins North Bay Commercial Real Estate Santa Rosa CA David Brooks Lawler-Wood, LLC Knoxville TN Robert Phillips Nevada Real Estate LLC Las Vegas NV Janet Robinson Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT Sarasota FL Lydia Bennett CRE West Coast, LLC Bellingham WA Eugene Heathman Garland Realty and Investment Ruidoso NM Scott Perkins NAI James E.Hanson Hackensack NJ David Boyd Boyd Commercial/CORFAC International Houston TX Michael Connors CORT Business Services Corporation Chantilly VA Donald A Ruizzo Assist 2 Sell Ace Full Service Realty St. Cloud FL Jim Otis The Otis Company Omaha NE George S. Tate Jr. NAI Knoxville Knoxville TN Paul Lepine James P McCrory Co., Inc. Fort Lauderdale FL Herb Tousley Shenehon Company Minneapolis MN Alberto Jauregui Nevada Land Las Vegas NV Brandon Brown T.L. Brown Properties Jackson MS Jan A. Sell Sell & Associates, Inc. Tempe AZ Elgin Weaver First community credit union Houston TX Mel Bernstein RE/MAX Optima Oviedo FL Dave Winder Cushman & Wakefield | Commerce Boise ID Ryan Marn Colliers International Honolulu HI Chris Schreiber Kiemle & Hagood Spokane WA Rene' Nelson Pacwest Commercial Real Estate Eugene OR Lloyd "Skip" Miller Morris Realty Group Memphis TN Petra Della Valle Loewe-Adler International, Inc. Addison TX Jeff Hays RB Murray Company Springfield MO Hassan Jadali Cassidy Turley St. Louis MO Buddy Rancese Mutual Trust Corporate Real Estate Austin TX Aziz Khatri KW Commercial CA Linda Cinelli LC Realty North Branch NJ Patrick Wilcox Colliers International NJ D'Arcy Browning RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) Calgary AK Steve Eisenshtadt Friedman Integrated Real Estate Solutions Farmington Hills MI Wes Hallmark Sperry Van Ness / Hallmark & Assoc. Lubbock TX Noel Andress Sunmsrk Realty Inc. Fort Mers FL Parsippany John P. Garruto Capital Realty Consultants Marlton NJ Brian Resendez Sperry Van Ness Portland OR Shannon Mar Guarantee Real Estate Fresno CA Melanie Wollenberg Equity Columbus OH Gary Cornelssen Marcor Investment Properties, Inc. San Diego CA Jeff Fritz Ellis-Gibson Development Group Virginia Beach VA Paul Bell Prudential Americana Group Las Vegas NV Steve Jacquemin S.J. Financial Group St. Louis MO Nick Nicketakis CBSRE Waukegan IL Joe Milkes Milkes Realty Valuation Dallas TX Greg Ogin Clark Commercial Group Kailua Kona HI Michael Shaffer Skogman commercial Cedar Rapids IA Claude Boiron Coldwell Banker Terrequity Realty Toronto OH Junko Masubayashi Newmark Grubb Knight Frank El Segundo CA Sica Nacu Southern Realty Enterprises Longwood FL Brett McDermott Latitude Commercial Realty Schererville IN Mark Howe Triangle Real Estate Group Raleigh NC Bob Swain NAI Seattle WA Anne Sieg KW Commercial Indep., MO Amanda Reeves Lee & Asspciates Charleston SC Mat Kolding Kolding Commercial Brokerage & Invest- Parker CO John McLaughlin McLaughlin Investments, Inc. Boston MA Darolyn Wall KW Commercial Phoenix AZ ments, Inc. David Jackson The Jackson Company Frisco TX Tony Baldwin Baldwin Realty Group Carver MA Brian Rosteck Skogman Commercial Group Cedar Rapids IA Philip Corriher Chambers Group Charlotte NC James Barse NAI Latter & Blum New Orleans LA Anthony Alan Tapie Grandbridge Atlanta GA Aida Yeghiazarian RE/MAX Optima Glendale CA Kathie Bahman Gorman & Company, Inc. Oregon WI Nick Probst+ Corporate Realty Advisers, LLC Tulsa OK Daniel Zelonker Real Miami Commercial RE LLC Miami/Coral Gables FL Roger A. Delisle Jr. Island Associates Real Estate Inc. Smithtown NY Barry Bounds KW Commercial Real Estate, LLC Denver CO Richard Miranda KW Commercial Houston TX Dan Stiebel Coldwell Banker Schmidt Traverse City MI Howard Wolf Wolf Group Properties, LLC Tulsa OK John Levinsohn Levi Investment Realty, Inc. Indianapolis IN George Spirrison Adelphia Properties Oak Brook IL Ara Karapetian Dilbeck Commercial La Canada CA Ben Cherry Manor Real Estate St. Louis MO Greg Herbert Sperry Van Ness Eugene OR Perry Horton REOC Austin Austin TX Jen Hudson WRE/M2 Everett WA CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 30
  • 30. Contributors Max Finkle ReMax Renaissance Realtors Chattanooga TN Edison Vasquez ComReal Miami Miami FL Adam Von Romer Fitzgerald Group Fort Lauderdale FL Patrick Bell Dunes Properties of Charleston, Inc. Charleston SC Bill Early Copaken Brooks Kansas City MO Kelly Keesee KW Commercial Lubbock TX Steven Cohen Nautilus Capital Greenville,SC SC Bob Rourke Premises Group Chicago IL Lester Liao Kennedy Heights Shopping Centre Delta WA Peter Cotsirilos National Realty Network Arlington Heights IL Gerilyn Gleason NAI Daus Cleveland OH Scott McClave The Bascom Group Irvine CA Mark Phillips Newmark Grubb Levy Strange Beffort Fountain Hills AZ Jordan Wang Asia Pacific Capital Tony Puente Fairchild Partners, Inc Miami FL Brian Phillips Randall Commercial Group, LLC Oxford MS Colleen Berthelot Corporate Realty New Orleans LA John McClure McClure Partners Dallas TX Don Wallace Callander Commercial Portage MI Mike Oliver Prudential Commercial Properties Billings MT Anthony Strauss Colliers Minneapolis MN Russ Wehner Russ Wehner Realty Co. Denver CO Gary Brown Gary Brown & Associates, Inc. Houston TX Richard Stern Midwest Commercial Real Estate, LLC Madison WI Steve Tyrrell NAI Aguer Havelock Sacramento CA Laura Hagan H4 Fort Worth TX George Tanghongs Lee & Associates Dallas TX Dewey Struble Dewey Struble CCIM Reno NV John Gilbert Gilbert & Ezelle Real Estate Services Savannah GA Walt Clements Clements Realty Advisors Glenview IL Jason Richards Novi Real Estate Carlsbad CA Greg Clauson Coldwell Banker Commercial Destin FL Martin Blum CBRE Richmond VA Peter Rasmusson Lee & Associates Elmwood Park NJ Neil Warshafsky Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., Toronto ON David Dunn Sperry Van Ness / Dunn Commercial Arlington TX John Khami Parkwood Properties Troy MI Nick Eyhorn Coldwell Banker Commmercial Rick Lubbock TX Brokerage CA Stephen M. Soble Ernest Soble Commercial Properties, Inc. San Antonio TX David Victorio Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT Mansfield TX Bob Strzalka Coldwell Banker Commercial Haddonfield NJ Michael Armanious Keller Williams University Place WA Skip Rosenstock USFP Kansas City MO Justin Clark Caldwell Companies Houston TX Kasey Rohde JR Fulton & Associates, Inc. Norman OK Randy Atkin Cushman Wakefield Commerce Salt Lake City UT Jennifer Long Re/Max Bastrop Area Bastrop TX Andy Bell Anderson Bell, Inc. Atlanta GA Monica Rafferty Coldwell Banker Commercial Salt lake City UT Hector Martinez River Oaks Properties El Paso TX Andy Levy The Meg Companies Londonderry NH Alan Stamm Century 21 Consolidated Las Vegas NV Julian Rotnofsky United Commercial Realty San Antonio TX Brian Wolford Paradigm Tax Group Houston TX Nancy Reimann Realty USA Buffalo NY Shawn Massey The Shopping Center Group Memphis TN Bismarck ND Stanley Watson Watson Real Estate Ann Arbor MI Jorge L. Pagan Canup Realtors Cheryl Dixon Dixon Commercial Properties Southfield MI Jeffrey Bentz Cassidy Turley Kansas City MO Gerald LaHay Levin Commercial Real Estate, LLC Atlantic CIty NJ Mark Howe Triangle Real Estate Group Raleigh NC Andrew Joyner The Simpson Company Gainesville GA W. J. Cotter Absolute Investment & Realty Services Tampa FL Hal Alpert Alpert Commercial Real Estate Vacaville CA Paul Fetscher Great American Brokerage Long Beach NY Thomas Mertens Omni Development Albany NY Rick Gonzalez Crosby & Associates Tavares FL Louise Frazier Blue Ridge Realty, Inc. Knoxville TN Anthony Marshall VIP Properties Rapid City SD Chris Grear Colliers Nashville TN Soozi Jones Walker Commercial Executives Real Estate Las Vegas NV Gregg Waller Long & Foster Commercial Vienna VA Sam Perlman Adams & Company Sandy Springs GA Michael R. Bradley Bradley Commercial Real Estate Kirkland WA Samuel Zonfrillo KW Commercial Plainville MA Ricky Paradise NorthPoint Development Kansas City MO Phil Rose Twin Rivers Capital Charleston SC Jay Steinberg Block Hawley Commercial Real Estate Chesterfield MO Stephen Luta Stephen Luta, CCIM Cape Coral FL Jon Matta MGM Realty Group Bedford NH Brian D Harris REOC San Antonio San Antonio TX Beverly Keith Trinity Partners Raleigh NC George Polydoros George Polydoros Co., Inc Houston TX Michael Hui HMA Global Brea CA Ashley Elkin Studley Washington DC John Floyd Crye-Leike Commercial Property Brentwood TN Thomas Miller Miller Industrial properties Reno NV Bob Hasan GE Capital Real Estate Philadelphia PA Management Services Services Chris Wallace RC Commercial Realty Plymouth Meeting PA Chris Spear ComReal Miami, Inc Doral FL Bradford Madrona Real Estate Srvs, LLC Seattle WA Marc Barlow Philip M. Barlow & Assoc. LLC Gilbert AZ CJ Snyder Ozarks Realty Flippin AR Lorin Schultz NAI Cummins Akron OH Maire Herron AIC Jackson WY Josh Randolph Colliers International Birmingham AL Leon Titus CBRE Tacoma WA Brian T. Barson Cornerstone Company Las Vegas NV Jeff Foster Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Newport Beach CA Ross Hedlund Frauenshuh Minneapolis MN Le Anne Thomas Paradigm Tax Group Woodland Hills CA Alan Darner Kellogg Company Battle Creek MI Aaron McDermott Latitude Commercial Schererville IN Bob Kane Bull Realty Atlanta GA Howard Meier High Peak Toronto UT Todd Hamilton Cutler Commercial Scottsdale AZ William Ellis Camden Commercial Real Estate Services San Antonio TX David Ashford Southpace Properties Inc. Bimringham AL James Weld Value Property LLC NV Dana Coronado KW Commercial Studio City CA CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS Las Vegas NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 31
  • 31. Contributors Tim Churchwell Exit Realty Central Commercial and Norfolk VA Mike Stuhlmiller Stuhlmiller Realty Hayden ID John Haney Special Markets Trotter & Company Knoxville TN Lee Greer, Jr Sperry Van Ness Lexington Lexington KY Robert DiPietrae Hendricks-Berkadia Seattle WA Karen Higgins WestMark Commercial Lubbock TX Ben Walin Commercial properties of maui Wailuku HI Rob Borny HFF Florham Park NJ Kevin McGowan Violet Tiger Corporate Real Estate Philadelphia PA Mike Carroll Sealy Realty Co., Inc. Tuscaloosa AL David P. Ellermann Ellermann Commercial Brokerage Chicago IL Jim Helsel Helsel, Inc., Realtors Harrisburg PA John Leonard Marcus & Millichap Atlanta GA Juan Teran Chapman Lindsey Commercial Real Estate Tucson Patrick Doherty Carolina Commercial Investment Wilmington NC Properties Services AZ Services LLC Paul Sipp Turkey Run, Inc. Columbus Anthony Rosetta Fenway Properties San Diego CA Jeffrey W. Eales Birtcher Anderson Realty, LLC San Juan Capistrano CA Alex Rodriguez Commercial Realty Solutions Miami FL Eric Higgins Colliers International Birmingham AL Jeff Tompkins CBRE Denver CO Lee Ehlers Investors Realty, Inc Omaha NE Tony Carlson Grandbridge Real Estate Capital Minneapolis MN Travis Newton Florida Blue (BCBS) Jacksonville FL Mike Milovick Royal LePage Grand Valley Realty Kitchener Melissa Molyneaux Colliers International Reno NV Bill Kutsogiannis Janus Realty Regina SD Edward Herbert HCR Associates Realtors Nashville TN Lily Seymour Gershman Commercial Real Estate st Louis MO Stanley Watson Watson Real Estate Ann Arbor MI Charles Wiercinski McLennan Commercial Properties Park Ridge IL Bradley Alton NAI Commercial Edmonton James Schutter Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Chicago IL Michael Schout Cushman & Wakefield Waterloo Region Ltd. Waterloo CA Chandra Wright KW Commercial Vienna MD Nick Miner Orion Investments Scottsdale AZ Michael Martz Hayes Commercial Group Santa Barbara CA Todd Clarke NM Apartment Advisors Inc. Albuquerque NM Beth Chappel CBRE Stamford CT Jeff Tompkins CBRE Denver CO Mike King Kidder Mathews Seattle WA Marc Veras RE Commercial LLC Green Bay/Appleton WI Gary Catterton Catterton General, LLC Charleston SC Lisa Engel CBRE Camarillo CA Robert Riddle Riddle Associates, Inc. Chesapeake VA Nancy Fish Park Place Real Estate Kalamazoo MI Mary Martin Miller Miller Consulting Group, LLC Portland;Salem OR Tom Schmidt Colliers International Redwood City CA Rosalie Keszler The Stone Group Austin TX PJ Behr CNL Commercial Real Estate Orlando FL Robin Civish Voit Las Vegas NV David Schnitzer Venture Dallas TX Simeon Spirrison Adelphia Properties Oak Brook IL Sherry Palermo Zann Commercial Brokerage Houston TX Bruce Kahn The Foundation Group Seattle WA Zachary Fleming Ryan, LLC San Antonio TX Dave Worden Windward Commercial Real Estate Half Moon Bay CA Chase Collier Highwoods Properties Tampa FL Gary Hunter Westlake Associates, Inc. Seattle WA Seervices OH Jennifer Pollock Synovus Bank Orlando FL Kevin Bethea Realty House Commercial Properties, Inc. Fort Walton Beach FL Margaret Larsen Larsen Baker LLC Tucson AZ Bob Rosenberg Inve$tnet Inc. Sacramento CA David Aikens KW Commercial Louisville KY John Khami Parkwood Properties Troy MI Dan Dowd Cole Taylor Bank Chicago IL Christy DeVinaspre Western Idaho Realty Nampa ID Gayle Berkbigler KW Commercial Austin TX Edward Schmidt NAI MIAMI MIAMI FL Jay Pittard Jordan REA Southern Pines NC Holly Coats KW Commercial Amarillo TX Joe Awad RE/MAX Leaders Denver CO Brian Sorrentino ROI Commercial Real Estate, Inc. Las Vegas NV David Dunn Hike Real Estate PC Bellevue NE David Gleason Van Eaton & Romero Lafayette LA Dan Messina KW Commercial Concord MA Brad Welborn Colonial Square Realty, Inc. Fort Myers FL Kent Taylor Taylor Commercial Real Estate Austin TX Matt MacCaughelty Cardinal Real Estate Partners Charlotte NC Keith Thomas RE/MAX Parkside Olympia WA Dalerie Wu STC Management Whittier CA Thomas Knaub Colliers International Phoenix AZ Kevin Lynch Sperry Van Ness Commercial Real Estate Chicago Kim Reagan Priority One El Paso TX Rob Millman Prudential Indiana Realty Seymour IN Matt Eaton RE/MAX Commercial Brokers Inc Metairie LA Lee Wagner Site Selection Group, LLC Dallas TX David Ford CBRE Cleveland OH Jim Tucker NetWorks Commercial Real Estate Richmond VA Eric Rehn Kennedy Wilson Properties Group Vallejo CA Jennifer Martin Sperry Van Ness Commercial Advisors Salem OR Pam Rushing Coldwell Banker Commercail Mt West Salem OR D. Scott Smith Prudential Baltimore MD Topher Thompson CBC Thompson Realty Group Lincoln NE Jose Maria Serrano New Miami Realty Corp. Miami FL James Roscoe High Southeast Venture, LLC Nashville TN Shane Hoey Neil Walter Co Kent WA Ben Cherry Manor Real Estate St. Louis MO Heidi Adams Sperry Van Ness | R M Moore Knoxville TN Edward Bowden Virginia Land Ventures, LLC Richmond VA Brian Erickson NAI Optimum West Des Moines IA Robert Avary Alta Commercial Real Estate Houston TX Susan Cerone Realtyusa Albany NY Trent Grothues Pollan Hausman Real Estate Services, LLC Houston TX Lang Motes ICO Commercial Houston TX Beth DuPont Winkler & DuPont Portland OR Allison Thompson Cedar Hill EDC Cedar Hill TX Rick Clark Integrity Bank Houston TX CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS IL Advisors NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 32
  • 32. Contributors Andrew Joyner The Simpson Company Gainesville GA Hema Virani DJK Commercial New York NY Dietrich Brandt Dietrich Realty Santa Cruz CA Lawrence L. Davis Benson and Mangold Commercial Easton MD Kathleen Boswell Coldwell Banker Commercial Charleston SC Roger Gray Capital Asset Properties, LC San Antonio TX James Palmer Re/Max Metro-city Realty Ltd Ottawa Casey Keitchen Bull Realty Atlanta GA Daren Hebold Lux Realty Group Portland ME Blair Gilbert KW Commercial Exton PA Dan Robinson Lidstrom Commercial Realtors Mankato MN Will Barden Colliers International | Memphis Memphis, TN TN Columbia SC Tatum Moore iCORE Global - Austin Austin TX Julie Teague Charles Parmelli Cassidy Turley Chatham NJ William Robinette Select Properties Company Hayden Lake ID Alger LaHood LaHood Realty Grosse Pointe MI Kevin Geraghty Windermere Whatcom Inc Bellingham WA William Butler Engel Realty Company, LLC Birmingham AL Woods Justin Neal The Viking Team Realty Longood FL John Simpson Jr. Prudential Simpson & Assoc. Fredericksburg VA Gregory C. Cassel High Real Estate Group LLC Lancaster PA Michael Houge Transwestern Minneapolis MN Steven Martens NAI Martens wichita KS David Jackson The Jackson Company Frisco TX Jim Williams REMAX Capital Inc Windsor Ralph Pace U.S. Bank Denver CO Homer W Hines HWH Properties Chesnee AJ Dugal Century 21 Clemens & Sons Rocky Hill CT Frank Weiskopf Realty Executives Maryville/Knoxville TN Rich Rhatigan Atherton & Associates Shelton CT Bobbie Mastracci Phoenix West Commercial Litchfield Park Ryan Johnson Johnson Group Reno NV Robin Santiago Kidder Mathews San Jose CA Drew Basham RE/MAX Affiliates Realty Commercial Little Rock AR Alejandra Matthes Re/Max Masters Glendora CA James Marian Chapman Lindsey Tucson AZ James Kirby Walmart Realty Bentonville AR Hal Alpert Alpert Copmmercial Real Estate Vacaville CA Darrell Robb Encon Commercial Santa Fe Springs CA David Roth Remax Alliance Group Sarasota FL Wes Schollenberg Avison Young Winnipeg Deb Stevens The Stevens Group Boston MA Harvey Kolin Corporate Commercial Realty Melville NY Chad Heer RE/MAX Commercial St Paul MN Cindy Feinberg Feinberg Real Estate Advisors, LLC Allentown PA Michele Dugan Roundy's Supermarkets, Inc. Milwaukee WI Amy Mills Steve Fineberg & Associates, Inc. Bentonville AR Steve Mitchell KW Commercial Jacksonville NC Dale Donovan KW Commercial Orlando FL Vicki Hodge Walgreens Wauwatosa WI Angela Harwell Lakeland Commercial Realty, LLC Lakeland FL Lauren Rodes Colliers International Phoenix AZ Joe P. Rickett Douglas Advisory Dallas TX Paul Rosado Commercial Real Estate Broker Tucson AZ Eric Wang Yuanta Asset Management Co. Taipei Rob Lukemeyer III Baseline, Inc. Carmel IN Michael Sorrentino Century 21 Franklin Street Lenox MA Matt Boehlke Regus Maple Grove MN S. Susan Self Ritter Management, Inc. Irving TX James Mangas Best Corporate Real Estate Upper Arlington OH Raisa Galper Gardner, Realtors New Orleans LA Robert Powell Powell Realty Advisors, LLC Dallas TX Burt Polson ACRES Real Estate Services, Inc. Napa CA Zach Schwarzmiller Coast Sperry Van Ness Everett WA Carrie Spradling Walker Alley and Associates Shreveport LA Jacob Grieser HC REIT TOLEDO OH Dave Denton DAR Development Grand Rapids MI Rodney Gustafson Case Commercial Real Estate, Inc. Denver CO Thomas Miller Miller Industrial Properties Reno NV Lauren Nasser Arthur Kowitz Realty Daytona Beach FL Patty Burns Fickling & Company Macon GA Lois Williams The Rosemyr Corporation Henderson NC Bruce Pearson John Hancock Financial Boston MA Heather Trower RED Legacy, LLC Kansas City MO Mez Birdie NAI Global Orlando FL George Polydoros Polydoros & Associates Houston TX Jason Wilcox Raven Commercial Real Estate Kent WA Clarissa V. Willis CBRE Miami FL Michael Armanious KW Commercial Tacoma WA Aaron Goldmeier Hampton Roads Management Virginia Beach VA Laurens Nicholson Lee & Associates Greenville SC M.E. (Mike) Eurchuk Realty Executives Meridian Edmonton Jeff Franklin J.W. Franklin Co. Warrensburg MO Bill Whitlatch The Whitlatch Company Visalia CA Gary J. Drechsel Eagle Realty USA Ledgewood NJ Michael Roy Neil Walter Company Kent WA Ed Kiesa CBRE | Syracuse Syracuse NY Scott Pollom Cassidy Turley Indianapolis IN Frank Thomasson Cassidy Turley Nashville TN Stephen Brown CBRE Limited Toronto Ashley Chertkof Sperry Van Ness/RealSite Commercial Baltimore MD Todd Hamilton Cutler Commercial Phoenix AZ Douglas K. Smith NAI Puget Sound Properties Tacoma WA SC Group Tom Larson RE/MAX Commercial Property Solutions La Porte IN John M. Stone John M. Stone Company Dallas TX Erik Schwetje EWS Advisors Winter Park FL Jerry Holdner Voit Real Estate Services Newport Beach CA Mark Klein Klein & Heuchan clearwater FL James T. Saint Halo Realty & Investments Corporation Las Vegas NV George Spirrison Adelphia Properties Oak Brook IL Don Gabriel Ameribid Overland Park KS Brett McDermott Latitude Commercial Realty Schererville IN Bobbi Miracle Commercial Executives Las Vegas NV Dan Smith Millridge Real Estate LLC Wake Forest NC Doug McKinnon BankPlus Jackson MS Rick McGraw Coldwell Banker/Tomlinson Group Boise ID Patrick Gallagher Siegel-Gallagher Milwaukee WI Dale DeBoer DeBoer Commercial Real Estate Modesto CA Arielle Dorman Kidder Mathews Bellevue WA Macy Ritter NorthPoint Development Kansas City MO Tony Fluhr NTS Development Company Louisville KY CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 33
  • 33. Contributors Brian Collins Post Office Realty New Braunfels TX Bob Droubi Keller Williams Houston TX Jim Tamblyn Colliers Internatinoal Southwest Florida Fort Myers FL Derrick Stricker NAI Tri-Cities Kennewick WA Jim Kirkpatrick CBRE Capital Markets of Texas Houston TX David Johnson Mortgage Capital Investments, Inc. Nashville TN Alon Hilton Price Price-CO Realty Partners Atlanta GA Tom Norton FedEx Trade Networks Memphis TN Jay Verro NAI Platform Albany NY Geoffrey Faulkner NNNet Advisors San Francisco CA Ben Fazendin Grandbridge Real Estate Capital Minneapolis MN William Lewis The Lewis Group/CORFAC International Raleigh NC Tarit Chaudhuri KW Commercial Txas Gulf Houston TX Randall B. Boughton NAI Latter & Blum Baton Rouge LA Tom Shelly Sunshine Commercial Brokerage, LLC St. Peteersburg FL Tony Witt Cassidy Turley Dayton OH Jerry Hempenius Com-Spec Properties, Inc. San Luis Obispo CA Ricky Paradise NorthPoint Development Kansas City MO John Rees Rees Commercial Little Rock AR Andy Manthei KW Commercial Midwest Eagan MN Darby Craddock CFO Real Estate Services LLC Winter Haven FL Stasiu Geleszinski Sperry Van Ness Cincinnati OH Glen Rickett SBC Realty Partners Billings MT Vince Elder Coldwell Banker Commercial United Houston TX Bobby Pittenger Pittenger Land Charlotte NC Andrew Scearce Chodrow Realty Advisors Houston TX Zachary Harrell Scott F. Harrell & Associates, Inc. Springfield MO Danny Morales, Hartman Income REIT Houston TX Thomas Brian Properties, Inc. Arlington Heights IL Jeff Wilke Graham & Company Huntsville AL Darrell Okada NAI Puget Sound Properties Bellevue WA Tim Mills CBRE San Diego CA Anthony Clayton Century 21 King Rancho Cucamonga CA Stephen Bean HBCRE Lexington CCIM QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS Thank you to the industry experts who contributed to CCIM Institute’s 4Q13 Quarterly Market Trends. KY NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® AND CCIM INSTITUTE 34