SOCIALMEDIA.ORG/SUMMIT2013ORLANDO
Social media intelligence
WENDY MOE
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
DECEMBER 9–11, 2013
Social Media Intelligence
Wendy W. Moe
www.wendymoe.com
@wendymoe
Current practices
What’s wrong with these practices?
• Scalability
• Analyst bias
• Venue effects
• Selection effects that favor buzz-worthy...
1. Understand the behavior
2. Implications for observed metrics and trends
3. Integrating social media with traditional so...
Breaking down the behavior
WHO?
WHAT?
WHERE?
ONLINEOPINION • Posters versus lurkers
• Behavioral biases in posting
decisio...
Behavioral Biases
Pre-Purchase
Evaluation
Purchase Decision and
Product Experience
Post-Purchase
Evaluation
Incidence
Deci...
How does dynamics affect what we observe?
Variance
Average
Activists
Post frequently
Attracted by lack of consensus
More n...
Brand Tracking
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
ProportionofPositiveComments
Observation Month
...
What influenced expressed sentiment?
General Brand Impression (GBI)
Venue Venue-specific dynamics Message topic
Product and Attribute Effects
How much variance exists across focal topics related to the brand?
GBI and Offline Brand Tracking Surveys
• Potential for GBI as a lead
indicator
• Correlation with survey (t)
– GBI = .376
...
GBI and Stock Price
(DV=monthly close)
Coeff StdErr p-val
Constant -69.045 34.044 0.070
S&P* 0.104 0.031 0.008
GBI(t) -16....
Using Social Media Intelligence for Brand Tracking
• Significant social dynamics exist
• Encourage a variety of opinions t...
Questions?
www.BuildYourSMI.com
Coming in January 2014
wmoe@umd.edu
@wendymoe
www.wendymoe.com
SOCIALMEDIA.ORG/SUMMIT2013ORLANDO
Learn more about past and
upcoming events
DECEMBER 9–11, 2013
SOCIALMEDIA.ORG/EVENTS
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Social media intelligence, presented by Wendy Moe

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In her presentation, University of Maryland's Marketing professor and Director of the MS in Marketing Analytics, Wendy Moe, discusses current ways we measure and track social media, what is wrong with these common ways, and what we can do to fix them.

She goes over that you need to track your brand behavior in order to accurately track your social media.

Published in: Social Media, Business, Technology
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Social media intelligence, presented by Wendy Moe

  1. 1. SOCIALMEDIA.ORG/SUMMIT2013ORLANDO Social media intelligence WENDY MOE UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND DECEMBER 9–11, 2013
  2. 2. Social Media Intelligence Wendy W. Moe www.wendymoe.com @wendymoe
  3. 3. Current practices
  4. 4. What’s wrong with these practices? • Scalability • Analyst bias • Venue effects • Selection effects that favor buzz-worthy topics • Social dynamics that favor the extreme • What exactly does the of number of mentions or average sentiment mean? (correlation with offline survey = .008)
  5. 5. 1. Understand the behavior 2. Implications for observed metrics and trends 3. Integrating social media with traditional sources of market intelligence Social Media Intelligence
  6. 6. Breaking down the behavior WHO? WHAT? WHERE? ONLINEOPINION • Posters versus lurkers • Behavioral biases in posting decision • Expressed sentiment (versus true underlying opinion) • Topics vary in terms of their “buzz-worthiness” • Venue differences lead to venue effects
  7. 7. Behavioral Biases Pre-Purchase Evaluation Purchase Decision and Product Experience Post-Purchase Evaluation Incidence Decision Evaluation Decision Posted Product Ratings EXPERIENCEMODELINCIDENCE&EVALUATIONMODELS SELECTION EFFECT ADJUSTMENT EFFECT What influences posting behavior? • Opinion formation vs. opinion expression • Opinion formation, in theory, is a function of satisfaction • Opinion expression is subject to a variety of biases and dynamics – Expert effects – Multiple audience effects – Bandwagon vs. differentiation • Example: Opinion polls and voter turnout
  8. 8. How does dynamics affect what we observe? Variance Average Activists Post frequently Attracted by lack of consensus More negative Variance and volume make them more negative Low Involvements Post infrequently Deterred by lack of consensus More positive Variance and volume make them more positive
  9. 9. Brand Tracking 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ProportionofPositiveComments Observation Month Blog Forum Microblog Aggregate 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 DistributionofComments Observation Month Blog Forum Microblog Other Venue Correlation Blogs .197 Forums -.231 Microblogs -394 Average .008 Correlation with offline brand tracking survey
  10. 10. What influenced expressed sentiment? General Brand Impression (GBI) Venue Venue-specific dynamics Message topic
  11. 11. Product and Attribute Effects How much variance exists across focal topics related to the brand?
  12. 12. GBI and Offline Brand Tracking Surveys • Potential for GBI as a lead indicator • Correlation with survey (t) – GBI = .376 – Avg sentiment =.008 – Blogs = .197 – Forums = -.231 – Microblogs = .394 • Correlation with survey (t-1) – GBI = .881 – Avg sentiment = .169 – Blogs = .529 – Forums = .213 – Microblogs = .722 8.75 8.8 8.85 8.9 8.95 9 9.05 9.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 AverageSurveyResponse GBI Month of Overlap Period (t) GBI in month t-1 Survey in month t
  13. 13. GBI and Stock Price (DV=monthly close) Coeff StdErr p-val Constant -69.045 34.044 0.070 S&P* 0.104 0.031 0.008 GBI(t) -16.695 10.324 0.137 GBI(t-1) 30.693 10.375 0.014 Adj R-sq .475 * Closing price in month S&P Index GBI Lagged GBI
  14. 14. Using Social Media Intelligence for Brand Tracking • Significant social dynamics exist • Encourage a variety of opinions to include the moderate majority. This encourages discussion and insulates impact on sales. • Social media behavior varies across venue formats • Monitor multiple sources of SM data • Account for source effects in SM data • Neglecting to account for venue can bias sentiment inferences • Prevalence of attributes mentioned in social media depends on venues monitored • Potential to use social media for market research • Adjusted measure (GBI) can serve as lead indicator • Model-based measure vs. disaggregate metrics
  15. 15. Questions? www.BuildYourSMI.com Coming in January 2014 wmoe@umd.edu @wendymoe www.wendymoe.com
  16. 16. SOCIALMEDIA.ORG/SUMMIT2013ORLANDO Learn more about past and upcoming events DECEMBER 9–11, 2013 SOCIALMEDIA.ORG/EVENTS
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