APS1015 Class 3 - Systems Analysis

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This lectures focuses on analyzing the gaps that exist within larger systems (e.g. society-wide) and the role each sector in our society (public, private and nonprofit) plays to either reinforce or remove those gaps.

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  • Flu – the virus doesn’t attack a person, the body creates the conditions for the flu to flourishTalk about the way this happens –
  • Flu – the virus doesn’t attack a person, the body creates the conditions for the flu to flourishTalk about the way this happens –
  • NORMFocus on the distinction between entrepreneur and enterprise
  • APS1015 Class 3 - Systems Analysis

    1. 1. APS 1015: Social Entrepreneurship Class 3: Gap Analysis within Social Systems Monday, September 23, 2013 1 Instructors: Norm Tasevski (norm@socialentrepreneurship.ca)
    2. 2. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Agenda • Review of Social Systems • Break • Gap Analysis within Social Systems • Next week 2
    3. 3. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji What is a System? “A set of "Things” (people, organizations, objects…) that are interconnected in such a way that they form their own pattern of behaviour over time” Donella Meadows
    4. 4. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji System Behaviour • A system creates/causes its own responses • Outside forces can influence system response, but don’t cause the response • The same outside force that acts upon two different systems can therefore elicit two different responses • Example: the flu virus 4
    5. 5. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji System Components 1. Elements 2. Interconnections 3. Functions/Purpose Example: Soccer (Football) 5 Elements Interconnections Purpose
    6. 6. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji System Components • Elements – Tangible (people, buildings) – Intangible (team pride, learned skills) • Interconnections – Physical flows (e.g. objects moving) – Information flows (e.g. rules, instructions) • Function/Purpose – Intended responses (e.g. goal to win a soccer match) – Unintended responses (e.g. violence after a soccer match) 6
    7. 7. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Importance of Systems Change • Systems are dynamic (not static) they naturally change 7
    8. 8. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Importance of Systems Change • Systems, if left alone, can create adverse consequences 8
    9. 9. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji The Cause of Change Is Volatility
    10. 10. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Voliatily is analogous to Vibration Stressors Fluctuation Variance
    11. 11. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji 3 TYPES OF SYSTEMS Fragile Resilient Anti-fragile
    12. 12. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Fragile Systems
    13. 13. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Exercise 1 • Volunteer? • Participation points!
    14. 14. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
    15. 15. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Fragile Systems = hurt by volatility value efficiency aggregate risk tend to hide errors
    16. 16. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Resilient Systems
    17. 17. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Resilient Systems
    18. 18. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Resilient Systems = can bounce back from shocks/volatility redundant by design (ex. Email)
    19. 19. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Antifragile Systems
    20. 20. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Antifragile Systems
    21. 21. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Antifragile Systems
    22. 22. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Antifragile Systems = gain from volatility small errors lead to learning decentralize risk
    23. 23. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji How to Spot Opportunities 1. Pretend you’re sent here from the future 2. Get specific! Real life isn’t general 3. Think about problems you have 4. Contrarian, and right
    24. 24. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Opportunity Indicators 1. High margins 2. Stagnation – old, dinosaur industries 3. Intermediaries 4. Rapid change in adjacent domains (tech, economics, etc. ) 5. Tyrannical control 6. Pent up unhappiness! 7. What bugs you? 8. Things everyone believes
    25. 25. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Your turn! 10 minutes
    26. 26. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Cause and Effect Chain - Example 26 Poverty ResultEffect Hunger Cause (Proximate) Can’t grow enough food Cause (Ultimate) Bad soil? Soil erosion? Not enough water? Not enough labour? Over-used soil? Don’t know how to prevent it Rains too hard Changing rain patterns? No irrigation resources? People sick?
    27. 27. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji The Vicious Circle • A symptom (effect) of a social condition can also be a cause, which then serves to further deepen the social condition 27
    28. 28. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Vicious Circle - Example 28 Poverty ResultEffect Hunger Cause (Proximate) Can’t grow enough food Cause (Ultimate) Bad soil? Soil erosion? Not enough water? Not enough labour? Over-used soil? Don’t know how to prevent it Rains too hard Changing rain patterns? No irrigation resources? People sick? Malnutrition Poor Health Hunger could therefore be both an effect and a cause of poverty
    29. 29. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Vulnerability vs. Resiliency • Vulnerability – The reduced ability for elements within a system to withstand shocks to the system – Examples of shocks: • A crop failure/drought • A health crisis/new illness • Resiliency – The absence of vulnerability (i.e. the ability to absorb shocks to a system) 29
    30. 30. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji 30 “Root Causes of Poverty” Workshop Tabe Ere
    31. 31. Break 31
    32. 32. Gap Analysis 32
    33. 33. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Current State & Future State • Current State – The amount of “stock” between two elements in a system – The stock is typically a measurable quantity – Examples: • Amount of water behind a dam • Level of trust in government • Amount of money in a bank account – The current state can have either in an ideal level, an over- abundance or a scarcity of stock • Future State – The ideal level of stock between elements in a system 33
    34. 34. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Inflows and Outflows • Inflows – An increase in stock • Outflows – A decrease in stock • Example: Soil erosion – Excess inflow of water; insufficient/ineffective outflow of water 34 Cause (Ultimate) Bad soil? Soil erosion? Over-used soil? Don’t know how to prevent it Rains too hard
    35. 35. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Correcting Loops • The mechanisms for controlling the inflows and outflows within a social system to maintain an ideal state • Correcting loops are not necessarily “visible” in a system – Example: how do we maintain ideal state of trust in government? 35 Cause (Ultimate) Bad soil? Soil erosion? Over-used soil? Don’t know how to prevent it Rains too hard • What correcting loop can we form in the system shown above?
    36. 36. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Correcting Loops • The mechanisms for controlling the inflows and outflows within a social system to maintain an ideal state • Correcting loops are not necessarily “visible” in a system – Example: how do we maintain ideal state of trust in government? 36 Cause (Ultimate) Bad soil? Soil erosion? Over-used soil? Don’t know how to prevent it Rains too hard • What correcting loop can we form in the system shown above? • What is the ideal state?
    37. 37. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Parameters • The considerations/factors that affect inflow and outflow • Example: Erosion – Rainfall – Soil type – Landscape/topography – Vegetation type – Land management • Can be unchangeable or changeable 37 Cause (Ultimate) Bad soil? Soil erosion? Over-used soil? Don’t know how to prevent it Rains too hard • What parameters can be changed? What can’t be changed?
    38. 38. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Parameters (Continued) Parameters are one form of intervention (aka “Leverage Points”) to address gaps in a system But… …we will cover leverage points in class 4 38
    39. 39. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Changing Systems Characteristics of adaptive systems: • Complexity – The need to use multiple perspectives or layers to understand • Intractability – The inability to exactly predict or control the change taking place • Stability and Change – Understanding that trying to manage a single variable may cause (multiple) other variables in the system to also change. 39
    40. 40. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Understanding Changing Systems 40 1. Potential (i.e. the limit to what is possible) 2. Connectedness ( i.e. the degree to which a system is able to control what happens to it through internal controls/feedback mechanisms/design/infrastructure) 3. Resilience – the ability to tolerate disturbances before something changes (good or bad). What influences change: Each of these factors apply to the system as a whole, as well as ANY VARIABLE WITHIN THE SYSTEM.
    41. 41. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Adaptability & Evolution of Systems 41 1. Exploitation - a stage of rapid expansion. For example: a fertile niche. 2. Conservation – a stage where slow accumulation and storage of energy and material is emphasized. For example: stabilization. 3. Release – a stage that occurs rapidly, as when a population declines due to a competitor, or changed conditions 4. Reorganization – a stage that can also occur rapidly, as when certain members of the population are selected for their ability to survive despite the competitor or changed conditions that triggered the release.
    42. 42. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Analysis of Systems • Goal: – Identify the imbalances in the current state and begin to understand how to design an intervention to address the imbalance so the system can adapt towards the future state. • Steps: – Describe the current state (inflows, outflows, changeable + non-changeable parameters, stock imbalances) – Describe the ideal future state (ideal inflow/outflow levels and ideal parameters) 42
    43. 43. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Exercise 43 Describe the current state in one area of this system Poverty ResultEffect Hunger Cause (Proximate) Can’t grow enough food Cause (Ultimate) Bad soil? Soil erosion? Not enough water? Not enough labour? Over-used soil? Don’t know how to prevent it Rains too hard Changing rain patterns? No irrigation resources? People sick? Malnutrition Poor Health
    44. 44. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji Another Analysis Technique • PESTEL Analysis – Political: The degree to which government intervenes in a system • E.g.: political stability, tax/education/health policies – Economic: The degree to which economic factors affect a system • E.g.: economic growth, interest rates, inflation – Social: Cultural factors that affect a system • E.g. attitudes toward health, career, the elderly 44
    45. 45. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji PESTEL (Continued) • PESTEL Analysis (Continued) – Technological: Technological factors found in a system • E.g.: level of R&D, level of automation – Environmental: Ecological and environmental factors in a system • E.g.: weather, climate, land use/degradation – Legal: The man-made laws governing a system • E.g. tax/employment/health laws, type of legal system (e.g. civil, common, religious) 45
    46. 46. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji What did we learn? 46

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