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Ubiquitous sustainable cities, Roger Ghanem University of Southern California
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Ubiquitous sustainable cities, Roger Ghanem University of Southern California

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  • 1. Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities Roger Ghanem1 1 University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA, USA October 6th 2009 Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 1 / 16
  • 2. Outline Essential Contributions from many colleagues at USC, CSULB, Columbia, ASU, Princeton, and RAND. Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 2 / 16
  • 3. Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 3 / 16
  • 4. Essential Premise Actions we take today will shape the reality of tomorrow: strong coupling between several complex systems Accurate anticipation is conducive to effective decisions. Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 4 / 16
  • 5. Essential Premise Actions we take today will shape the reality of tomorrow: strong coupling between several complex systems Accurate anticipation is conducive to effective decisions. Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 4 / 16
  • 6. Societal Drivers S USTAINABILITY BY D ESIGN : Anticipate Health Air quality Water supply and quality Climate change Anticipate Wealth Local and global economic growth Conditions of civil infrastructures Population dynamics Over long time horizons (30 years - 100 years). Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 5 / 16
  • 7. Societal Drivers S USTAINABILITY BY D ESIGN : Anticipate Health Air quality Water supply and quality Climate change Anticipate Wealth Local and global economic growth Conditions of civil infrastructures Population dynamics Over long time horizons (30 years - 100 years). Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 5 / 16
  • 8. Challenges Complexity, Uncertainty, Mutiple scales, Humans-in-the-loop Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 6 / 16
  • 9. Challenges Complexity, Uncertainty, Mutiple scales, Humans-in-the-loop Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 7 / 16
  • 10. Challenges Complexity, Uncertainty, Mutiple scales, Humans-in-the-loop Quantities of interest are observed on a multitutde of scales. Strong coupling between well-understood physical processes and highly speculative processes underlying human and social dynamics. Significant uncertainty exists in all components of the problem. Coupling between human and physical processes is at a coarsest scale (media-bites). Stakeholders are not of voting age. Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 8 / 16
  • 11. Some Hope Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 9 / 16
  • 12. Some Hope S UMMARY FROM A DOE W ORKSHOP : Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 10 / 16
  • 13. Integrated Solution S ENSING /C OMMUNICATING /M ODELING /D ECISION INFERRED INFERRED ANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED LANDSCAPES LANDSCAPES LANDSCAPES LANDSCAPES Population Density Anticipation Population Density Behavior of Agents in ABM w/ Climate Behavior of Agents in ABM Economic Activity Economic Activity Ground Motion Change Ground Motion Condition of Lifelines Condition of Lifelines POLICY G IN UP AL SC NS C InfoGrid Testbeds InfoGrid AL IN G DO W TRANSPORTATION MODELING ANTICIPATED STATE IN STATE OF URBANUS: OF URBANUS LOS ANGELES (current snapshot + archive) seismograms/ FLOODING IN mech. sensors NEW YORK CITY seismograms/ seismograms mech. sensors traffic EARTHQUAKE IN traffic LOS ANGELES power use power use water use POWER DEMAND water use PREDICTION GPS GPS PRESENT (or typical update time) FUTURE Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 11 / 16
  • 14. Vision Use information technology and modeling to enable the engineering of policies and decisions with managed consequences. Enable data-driven prediction science for complex coupled infrastructure systems accounting for human dynamics. Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 12 / 16
  • 15. Approach and Methodology Create information immersion through a hierarchy of area networks . Develop requisite IT infrastructure. Develop validated models of population dynamics and model response of humans to policies and environmental drivers. Develop models for coupling humans and infrastructure systems. Fold predictive models into decision-making environments. Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 13 / 16
  • 16. Integrated Solution S ENSING /C OMMUNICATING /M ODELING /D ECISION INFERRED INFERRED ANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED LANDSCAPES LANDSCAPES LANDSCAPES LANDSCAPES Population Density Anticipation Population Density Behavior of Agents in ABM w/ Climate Behavior of Agents in ABM Economic Activity Economic Activity Ground Motion Change Ground Motion Condition of Lifelines Condition of Lifelines POLICY G IN UP AL SC NS C InfoGrid Testbeds InfoGrid AL IN G DO W TRANSPORTATION MODELING ANTICIPATED STATE IN STATE OF URBANUS: OF URBANUS LOS ANGELES (current snapshot + archive) seismograms/ FLOODING IN mech. sensors NEW YORK CITY seismograms/ seismograms mech. sensors traffic EARTHQUAKE IN traffic LOS ANGELES power use power use water use POWER DEMAND water use PREDICTION GPS GPS PRESENT (or typical update time) FUTURE Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 14 / 16
  • 17. Nuts and Bolts O N M ANY L EVELS Transportation Flooding in System in New York City Los Angeles Systems Barriers Stakeholders: 1. Analysis of coupled Requirements Decision Makers Power system Citizens Earthquake 2. Feedback to in Los Angeles Demand Fundamental Research Private Sector Prediction 3. Metrics for System Products Performance & Outcomes Testbed Testbed Industry Partners and Systems Research Technology Integration Innovation Systems Research Partners Technology Elements MYRIAD Modeling Enabling Tech Barriers Systems & UD-Platform 1. Heterogeneous Data Interactions 2. Knowledge Extraction 3. Sensor-Model Interface Testbed 4. Uncertainty in Predictions Testbed System Requirements Testbed System Requirements Enabling Technology Research Technology Base Fundamental Insights Info. Science Validation & Fundamental Barriers w/ Massive Data & Networks Updating Under Complexity 1. Massive Heterogeneous Networks Stability & Control of Algorithms for 2. Massive Heterogeneous Heterogenous Dynamical Sys. Data Real-time Inference/Decision 3. Complex Interactions 4. Long prediction horizon Decision Making Quantitative 5. Uncertainties Under Complexity Human Interactions 6. Complexity of Humans Fundamental Research Knowledge Base Info Systems Models Policies Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 15 / 16
  • 18. Closing science has advanced to the point where we can build materials one atom at a time. humans are arguably more comple than atoms. information immersion seems like a reasonable way forward. Ghanem (USC) Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities SoCal Smart Grid Symp 16 / 16