Energy efficient transport in 2020, Paul Wuebben, Clean fuels officer, AQMD

Energy Efficient Transport in 2020: Key Policy, Technology & Research Drivers Paul Wuebben, Clean Fuels Officer South Coast Air Quality Management District Southern California Smart Grid Research Symposium Davidson Conference Center UNIVERSITY of SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA October 6, 2009 +

Outline

Why an interest in a Smart Grid?

The need for Electric Drive (ED) Transport

Air Quality, Energy + Climate Change

CA policies + Vehicle ED Market trends

Smart Grid Deployment and Optimization:

Maximizing Renewable Generation Use

Maximizing the deployment of plug in EVs

AQMD Smart Grid support policies

1 st : Why are we interested in a Smart Grid?

Reduce carbon emissions of transport sector

Maximize use of off-peak renewable generation

Minimize the need for large transmission capacity through system demand disaggregation

Enhance the business case for renewable resources with capacity factors < fossil generation

Achieve sustainable zero emission mobility

Portal to large consumer + system efficiencies

Convergence of Air Quality, Climate & Energy Security

South Coast Air Basin:

25% of U.S. ozone exposure

50% of U.S. PM-10 exposure

> 85% of airborne cancer risk from petroleum fuel use (diesel + gasoline)

Transportation sources: > 40% of CA GHG

Energy security:

CA Transportation: > 95% reliance on petroleum

72% of U.S. oil supply is imported

Airborne Cancer Risk Including Diesel : Ubiquitous + Petroleum Use Driven South Coast Air Basin

U.S. Oil Market Dynamics

The Energy Challenge:

source: IPCC Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Unprecedented Growth Rates = Unprecedented Problems

Source: James Hansen, 2008 Fossil Fuel Use: Largest Atmospheric Experiment in History

GHG BAU Impacts

Extreme weather intensification

Ocean effects

Acidification fisheries extinction

Salinity effects current disruptions

Sea level rise

Mega-Drought Levels

Insect renaissance

Fresh water supply shortages

Severe economic losses

Warmer Days Lead To Both Higher Emissions + More Ozone Source: Air Resources Board, 2000 Ozone (ppm) Temperature ( o F) Los Angeles Ozone Levels (1995-1998 ) California Ozone Standard Source: California Environmental Protection Agency

ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation (3 – 8 yr. cycle) Climate Implications of High Carbon Fuel Use:

Teleconnections and Feedbacks Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Tibetan Albedo Change? ENSO Triggering Indian Monsoon Transformation Bodele Dust Supply Change? Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump

Teleconnections and Feedbacks Atlantic Deep Water Formation Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Instability of Methane Clathrates Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? ENSO Triggering Bodele Dust Supply Change? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Tibetan Albedo Change? Indian Monsoon Transformation

Runaway Greenhouse Dynamics? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Indian Monsoon Transformation Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bodele Dust Supply Change? Tibetan Albedo Change? Atlantic Deep Water Formation Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Tibetan Albedo Change? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Bodele Dust Supply Change? Atlantic Deep Water Formation ENSO Triggering Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? ENSO Triggering Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions

GHG Emissions: Transportation Sources Dominate in CA

Current Policy Initiatives Intersecting EVs and Electricity Use

CAFE and California AB1493 vehicle standards

ZEV mandate (2,500 fuel cell vehs. in 2009-11)

Tax credits and HOV lane access for hybrids

California Global Warming Act (AB 32)

AB 118 Program Funding ($1.5 B over 7 years)

Stimulus funding via DOE

SCAQMD:

Clean Fuels Program, Fleet Rules, Carl Moyer Incentive Program, Prop 1B, etc.

California’s RPS: Most Aggressive in the Country Source: Black and Veatch

GHG Emissions (MMTCO2eq) AB32 Transportation Sector Carbon Reduction Strategies Plug-in Hybrids + Battery Electric Vehicles contribute to these “wedges”

Low Carbon Fuel Standard

Carbon intensity performance standard

gCO2e / MJ

10% reduction in gasoline CI: 95.61 * to 86.27 *

10% reduction in diesel CI: 94.47 * to 85.24 *

Adoption scheduled for April, 2009

Based on Well-to-wheel GHG accounting

Significant role for P-HEVs and BEVs , as well as:

Biofuels, such as 2 nd generation ethanol

Natural gas, H 2 , other renewable fuels

* CARB ISOR values, March 5, 2009

WTW GHG Emissions – gCO2e/MJ Adjustments reflect EER + iLUC assumptions Source: CARB Jan., 2009 Corn Ethanol with iLUC adjusted from 74.3 104.3 * CA-RFG 95.6 CARBOB 96.9 ULSD 94.5 CNG from N.A. gas adjusted from 68.0 75.6 * Corn Ethanol 74.3 G-H2 via LH2 transport, NA NG adjusted from 142.2 61.8 * G- H2 - onsite reform., NA NG adjusted from 98.3 42.7 * Electricity - CA mix adjusted from 124.1 41.4 * Gaseous H2 - onsite gen. NA LFG adjusted from 76.1 33.1 Biodiesel - Soybeans 26.9 Sugar Cane Ethanol adjusted from 26.6 72.6 Cellulosic Ethanol - Farmed Trees 5.38

Electricity Carbon Intensity

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BEVs and P-HEVs Market Outlook

Significant evolution underway for both pure electric and plug-in hybrids

Major hurdles:

1 st cost; battery durability, abuse tolerance, OEM-scale manufacturing; gravimetric and volumetric energy density; recharge time; + infrastructure deployment

“ Electric Drive” era has started

Home, workplace and retail echarging infrastructure are crucial enabling steps to wide commercialization

Smart Grid can help improve the economics, efficiency and low carbon intensity of recharging

AQMD Plug-in Hybrid Fleet

20 Ford Escape Conversions

Quantum Technologies

Advanced Lithium Power

10 Toyota Prius Conversions

Hymotion

A123

15

GM Volt 230

Chrysler GEM

35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Renewable Methanol Breakthroughs 30%

2 x Fuel Economy Increase with Aggressive Hybrid Drivetrains 40 – 50 mpg CAFE 35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Biomass Methanol Breakthrouoghs 30% 30%

Diversion to Renewable Electricity with Plug-in Technology Σ= 90% 2 x Fuel Economy Increase with Aggressive Hybrid Drivetrains 40 – 50 mpg CAFE 35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Biomass Methanol Breakthrouoghs 30% 30% 30%

Electric Drive Technology: Ready for Numerous Market Segments

ON-ROAD SEGMENT

LD

Med Duty

Heavy Duty

Buses

Truck Stops

OFF-ROAD SEGMENT

Port-related

On-dock rail (electric)

Ship “cold ironing”

Drayage trucks

Gantry Cranes

Rail

Aircraft

Ground Support Equip.

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WHY A SMART GRID ?

At its essence, a Smart Grid is the following:

More consumer data for more efficient decisions on

Technologies

Use characteristics

More enabling of the following:

Energy storage

Plug in hybrids

Renewable power integration

Smart buildings which manage load on-site

More appropriate to new era of Renewable Portfolio Standards (now in 30 states)

More responsive to time-of-use pricing signals

Collection of many different specific elements when linked together offer far greater system efficiency and resiliency and lower costs

How does a Smart Grid support Electric Vehicle Use:

More decentralized / more distributed / lower transmission costs

More agile voltage support + sub-second frequency modulation

More time-responsive

More accommodating of wind, solar and other renewable source load curves and capacity factors

More demand responsive / use of tiered + off-peak tariffs

More supply responsive / “low NOx dispatch”

More linked between customer and supplier / full net metering

More systems data for real time management / “ Vehicle to Grid” use ?

More systems data for emergency management

Much more than just smart meters

In other words, ideal for EV off-peak tarriffs

What does SG provide?

Real time integrated communications

Connected components

Open architecture for 2-way (customer to supplier and on-site)

Sensing and measurement devices

Remote monitoring

Demand side management

Advanced components which integrate superconductivity, and other technologies

Rapid diagnosis and solutions

Grid status updates and control

Improved decision calculus, including operational, cost and emergency response viability

Responsive to dynamic market, resource and environmental considerations

Integrated network to link cost, electrons and supply/demand information

A Smart Grid Can Shift the Economics of Recharging… thereby increasing the % of miles replaced with Electricity !

P-HEV Design Alternatives

- CA Grid Plus added upstream benefits of biofuels Charge Depleting (Plug In) Systems -> Lower GHG Emissions than simply hybrids 19

Role of Renewable Generation

“ I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.

Thomas Edison, 1931

The “Systems Management” Challenge: How best to “farm” off-peak generation

Source: http://www.co. marin .ca.us/ depts /CD/main/ comdev /advance/Sustainability/Energy/solar/resources/ pdf / MarinPVSeminar _1104_final. pdf A Smart Grid Will Also Help Avoid the Need for Diesel Back-up Generation…

AQMD Smart Grid Support Policies - I

The use of smart grid technology that improves reliability, security, and efficiency of the electric grid should be encouraged and facilitated. Cost reduction opportunities should also be maximized.

Smart grid upgrades to the electrical distribution system should make it more accommodating of wind, solar, geothermal, and other renewable energy sources where possible .

Smart grid upgrades to the electrical distribution system should facilitate installation of equipment that provides more systems data that enables improved management of electrical distribution during emergencies where possible.

AQMD Smart Grid (SG) Support Policies - II

Be as technology neutral as possible, and based on open standards to maximize results from technology investments which allow for the switch out of components without replacing whole systems.

The SG network should, to the extent feasible, include planning and funding for additional transmission lines that can transport power from one region to another and connect ‘power-demand cities’ with potentially remote areas where renewable power is likely to be generated.

The SG network should allow for the transmission of power and energy across regions and across states consistent with appropriate siting criteria.

AQMD Smart Grid (SG) Support Policies - III

In view of access to consumer information by the Smart Grid, the network must be kept secure and the consumer’s privacy must be safeguarded from unauthorized access and fraud.

Incentives should be provided wherever feasible and cost-effective to consumers for in-home devices such as smart thermostats, smart appliances, lighting controls, in-home energy displays, and load control switches .

Incentives should be provided wherever feasible and cost-effective to businesses for automating commercial offices and/or buildings, including smart thermostats, lighting controls, smart thermostats, energy displays, and load control switches .

AQMD Smart Grid Support Policies - IV

Incentives should be provided to consumers for investment in intelligent electrical network equipment for enhancing monitoring, control and distribution where feasible and cost-effective.

Incentives should be provided to utility companies for installation of grid monitoring and control devices such as transformer monitors and voltage sensors where feasible and cost-effective.