Creating a low carbon future by Von Dollen, EPRI

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Creating a low carbon future by Von Dollen, EPRI

  1. 1. Don Von Dollen Program Manager, IntelliGrid October 6, 2009 Creating a Low-Carbon Future
  2. 2. Critical Conclusions <ul><li>With achievement of aggressive but technically feasible levels of technology performance and deployment, annual U.S. electric sector CO 2 emissions could be reduced by 41% by 2030. </li></ul><ul><li>An optimal technical and economic strategy is comprised of aggressive end-use efficiency and a diverse generation technology portfolio. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ensures technological resiliency. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lowers cost of emissions reductions by ~37%. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>All technologies not yet ready - focused, sustained research, development and demonstration over the next 20 years is necessary. </li></ul><ul><li>Decarbonized electricity will be critical in reducing costs of reducing CO 2 emissions from transportation and other economic sectors. </li></ul>
  3. 3. Presentation Overview <ul><li>The Technology Challenge </li></ul><ul><li>Meeting The Challenge </li></ul>Decisions Over the Next Decade will Shape the Electricity Future of 2050 De-carbonize the electricity infrastructure and meet binding economy-wide CO 2 reduction targets Provide reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity Technically feasible with a full portfolio of generation options
  4. 4. The CO 2 Challenge Billion tons CO 2 Historical Emissions U.S. Electric Sector Remainder of U.S. Economy 83% Reduction in CO 2 emissions below 2005 Assumed Economy-wide CO 2 Reduction Target (with no international offsets) 2005 = 5982 mmT CO 2 2030 = 42% below 2005 (3470 mmT CO 2 ) 1017 mmT CO 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
  5. 5. U. S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2009 EIA Base Case 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2007 2008
  6. 6. Prism Technology Analysis <ul><li>Bottoms-up performance and cost analysis of key technology options to reduce electric sector CO 2 emissions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Based on domain expert evaluation of feasible technology performance, deployment improvements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Performance and technology advancements </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Presumes sustained, successful RD&D </li></ul><ul><li>Updated annually </li></ul>
  7. 7. 2009 Prism U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Efficiency Renewables Nuclear 41% reduction in 2030 from 2005 level is technically feasible using a full portfolio of electric sector technologies 41% CCS Fossil Efficiency 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20% Reduction in T&D Losses by 2030 None T&D Efficiency +3% Efficiency for 75 GWe Existing Fleet 49% New Coal; 70% New NGCCs by 2030 40% New Coal, 54% New NGCCs by 2030 Fossil Efficiency 90% Capture for New Coal + NGCC After 2020 Retrofits for 60 GWe Existing Fleet None CCS No Retirements; 10 GWe New Build by 2020; 64 GWe New Build by 2030 12.5 GWe New Build by 2030 Nuclear 135 GWe by 2030 (15% of generation) 60 GWe by 2030 Renewables 8% Additional Consumption Reduction by 2030 Load Growth ~ +0.95%/yr Efficiency EPRI Prism Target EIA Base Case Technology
  8. 8. 2009 Prism – PEV and Electro-Technologies U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Efficiency Renewables Nuclear CCS Fossil Efficiency Low-carbon generation enables electrification and CO 2 reductions in other sectors of economy Electro-Technologies PEV 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 PHEVs by 2010 40% New Vehicle Share by 2025 3x Current Non-Road Use by 2030 None Electric Transportation Replace ~4.5% Direct Fossil Use by 2030 None Electro- technologies EPRI Prism Target EIA AEO Base Case Technology
  9. 9. MERGE Economic Analysis <ul><li>Optimization Model of Economic Activity and Energy Use through 2050 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Maximize Economic Wealth </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Inputs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy Supply Technologies and Costs for Electric Generation and Non-Electric Energy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Constraints </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greenhouse Gas Control Scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy Resources </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Outputs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economy-wide Impact of Technology and Carbon Constraints </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. MERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Coal Gas Wind Demand Reduction New Coal + CCS Coal Gas Wind Nuclear Demand Reduction Nuclear Solar Biomass Hydro CCS Retrofit Biomass Hydro
  11. 11. Key Technology Portfolio Insights <ul><li>Aggressive energy efficiency needed with either portfolio </li></ul><ul><ul><li>52% Increase in Demand Reduction with Limited Portfolio </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Over 20% renewables generation share by 2030 with either portfolio </li></ul><ul><ul><li>>50% renewables by 2050 with limited portfolio </li></ul></ul><ul><li>If availability of new nuclear and CCS post 2020 uncertain, natural gas power production expands rapidly </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Limited Portfolio – Gas Consumption Increases 275% from 2010 to 2050 </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio $/Mwh (2007$) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio 210% 80% 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Substantial increases in the cost of electricity 2050 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220
  13. 13. Meeting the Challenge 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio $/Mwh (2007$) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220 Technology Actions Based on Meeting the Prism Technology Targets Technology Innovation to De-carbonize While Achieving a Cost of Electricity Near Today’s Level RD&D and Deployment Challenge Innovation Challenge
  14. 14. <ul><li>The Technology Challenge </li></ul><ul><li>Meeting the Challenge </li></ul>The Electricity Technology Challenge
  15. 15. BACKUP SLIDES
  16. 16. MERGE De-carbonization Results Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Wholesale Electricity Cost (2007 cents/kWh) Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO 2 /MWh) Cost of Electricity De-Carbonization 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 2007 MERGE Projections 2020-2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio High Cost to meet 2050 Reduction Target with >80% Generation Mix Gas and Renewables
  17. 17. Conclusion Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Wholesale Electricity Cost (2007 cents/kWh) Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO 2 /MWh) Cost of Electricity De-Carbonization 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 2007 MERGE Projections 2020-2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Electricity policy and technology actions over the next decade will to a great extent shape the electricity future of 2050
  18. 18. MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio $/Mwh (2007$) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio 173% Substantial increases in the cost of electricity 2050 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220
  19. 19. Impact on U.S. Economy of Policy: 80% Below 1990 by 2050 Value of R&D Investment Cost of Policy Reduction in Policy Cost with Advanced Technology Advanced technologies without CCS or new Nuclear

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