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Sgtp Presentation Rubicon Government Hospitality

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  • In order to determine size and scope of hospitality segment:Align sets of hotels across each geographical area we measure with available capacity data Determine percentage of hotel capacity represented by our data in each area.Apply capacity ratio to arrive at occupancy and revenue data of government bookings in markets measuredRevenue data weighted for chain scaleDetermine capacity percentage of metro areas measured relative to United States hotel capacityApply capacity ratio, extrapolating both occupancy and revenue measures to the entire United StatesAssumptions:Booking behavior applies equally across the country
  • This RevPar is for total transient, and includes government revenue and room nights in the calculation.
  • YTD SummaryFor the government sector, year to date room night demand is up 17.8% compared to same time last year with ADR down by 3.2%For the transient sector not including government, year to date room night demand is up 0.1% with ADR down by 16.8%.Revenue up to now is $494,112,818 and $4,455,381,153 for the government and transient sectors, respectively. That is an increase of 14.0% for government revenue compared to same time last year while it is a decline of 16.8% for the transient segment.
  • Size = capacityDate range = Q4, 2009 – Q2, 2010 for Government data
  • Size = capacityDate range = Q4, 2009 – Q2, 2010 for Government data
  • Historical data from Jan 2009 – July 2009
  • Future data from Aug 2009 to Jun 2010. The data is as of July 31, 2009 (Aug 3, 2009 exactly).
  • Under variance % vs last year, corp UP data only available for the month of September 2009, shown as a triangle point, with both LY and TY data. In current rates, we only see corp UP data for TY.
  • Transcript

    • 1. Government Travel’s Largest Sector: Hospitality
      Copyright © 2009, The Rubicon Group, Inc. Proprietary & Confidential
      This report and its contents are proprietary information and may not be disclosed or discussed with any third party, except as permitted by the Publisher, The Rubicon Group, Inc. Neither the contents of the report, actions taken based upon the report nor implications of the report may be shared with anyone outside of the Subscriber’s organization.  The contents of the report are based upon data provided to Rubicon by third parties and the report is provided “as is.” Rubicon makes no representation expressed or implied regarding the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the report and the recipient of the report expressly assumes all risk, whether known to the Subscriber, in relying upon the contents of the report. 
    • 2. Where does information come from?
      2
    • 3. Rubicon Data Sources
      3
      This presentation is based on reservation data provided by hotel companies participating in Rubicon’s MarketVision® Demand Position product.
      The scope of the reporting:
      Four major brands
      All booking channels (direct, voice, travel agency, brand.com, online travel agency)
      14 major US markets
      94.5 million annual room nights
      $15.5 billion in annual room revenue
      Q1, 2009 – Q2, 2010
      As of July 31, 2009
    • 4. Size and Scope of Government Hospitality
      What do we know?
      Characteristics of reservations
      Certain metro areas
      Our definition of metro area
      Government transient segment
      What don’t we know?
      Behavior of travelers
      All cities, towns, rural areas
      CVB definition of metro area
      Government groups
      4
    • 5. What’s Happening with Government Hospitality?
      How is the hospitality industry doing overall? And how is government doing by comparison?
      How has government demand for hotels shaped up throughout the year, leading up to now?
      Is demand shifting? Growing or shrinking?
      What is the relative share of government hotel business, as compared to overall business? Corporate business?
      Is government hotel business as affected, more affected, or less affected by the current recession than overall hotel business?
      What are the current pricing conditions?
      Has pricing behavior changed?
      What do the upcoming months look like for government hotel business?
      5
    • 6. How is the hospitality industry doing overall? And how is government doing by comparison?
      6
    • 7. Performance Trends
      7
      Jan-July 2009
      The above graph shows the variance % versus last year RevPAR, across all markets, for a rolling 365 day future horizon, as of the start of each week since January 1, 2009.
    • 8. Performance Trends
      8
      Jan-July 2009
      The above graph shows the variance % versus last year committed occupancy and ADR, across all markets, for a rolling 365 day future horizon, as of the start of each week since January 1, 2009.
    • 9. How has government demand for hotels shaped up throughout the year, leading up to now?
      9
    • 10. Occupancy Outlook
      10
      Q1, 2009
    • 11. ADR Outlook
      11
      Q1, 2009
    • 12. Occupancy Outlook
      12
      Q2, 2009
    • 13. ADR Outlook
      13
      Q2, 2009
    • 14. Occupancy Outlook
      14
      Q3, 2009
    • 15. ADR Outlook
      15
      Q3, 2009
    • 16. Occupancy Outlook
      16
      YTD Summary
    • 17. ADR Outlook
      17
      YTD Summary
    • 18. Is demand shifting? Growing or shrinking?
      18
    • 19. Demand Shift
      19
    • 20. Revenue
      20
    • 21. Revenue – Future
      21
    • 22. Revenue vs. Room Nights – Future
      22
    • 23. What is the relative share of government hotel business, as compared to overall business? Corporate business? How is this shifting?
      23
    • 24. Share of Room Nights & Revenue – YTD
      24
    • 25. Share of Room Nights & Revenue – Future
      25
    • 26. What are the current pricing conditions?Has pricing behavior changed?How does pricing stack up as compared to government per diems?
      26
    • 27. 2009 Government Per Diem vs. Actual Pricing – Chicago
      27
    • 28. 2009 Government Per Diem vs. Actual Pricing – San Francisco
      28
    • 29. 2009 Government Per Diem vs. Actual Pricing – Washington DC
      29
    • 30. What do the upcoming months look like for government hotel business?
      30
    • 31. Currently, for the month of September, demand is up for both the government and transient sectors at 10.3% and 8.6%, respectively. Government ADR is down by 2.0% while transient ADR is down by 17.4%.
      31
    • 32. 12 Month Outlook by Month
      32
    • 33. In the current quarter, with 2 recent months and 1 future month, demand is up 19.1% and 6.4% for government and transient, respectively, and ADR is down by 3.8% and 17.9%, respectively. Not including September, Q3-2009 demand is up by 20.5% year over year while ADR is behind by 3.9%.
      33
    • 34. Occupancy Outlook
      34
      Q4, 2009
    • 35. ADR Outlook
      35
      Q4, 2009
    • 36. For the 3 future quarters, government room nights are up by 2.7% compared to same time last year while ADR is down by 3.0%. Transient excluding government, on the other hand, is down by 12.2% in room night demand versus same time last year with ADR down by 14.4%.
      36
    • 37. Conclusions
      Hotel demand has suffered significant declines in occupancy, ADR and RevPAR through the downturn.
      The government segment has been spared to some degree, compared to other hotel segments.
      The outlook for the remainder of the year is cautiously optimistic.
      37
    • 38. Thank you!
      Rubicon
      Christine DeZarn
      cdezarn@rubicongroup.com
      38