Morse Econ Tourism Transylvania Brevard 10 15 09

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    Morse Econ Tourism Transylvania Brevard 10 15 09 - Presentation Transcript

    1. Tourism s Importance to the  Tourism’s Importance to the Transylvania County & Brevard  Economy Steve Morse, Ph.D. Director & Economist  Tourism Institute T i I tit t University of Tennessee Knoxville, TN Ph: (865) 974‐6249 smorse@utk.edu October 15, 2009 Brevard, NC
    2. Tourism s Importance to the  Tourism’s Importance to the Transylvania County & Brevard  Economy Brevard College Brevard College Steve Morse, Ph.D. Brevard, NC October 15, 2009 Director & Economist  Tourism Institute University of Tennessee y Knoxville, TN Ph: (865) 974‐6249 Ph: (865) 974 6249 smorse@utk.edu
    3. Outline of Topics 1) Tourist spending trends in Transylvania Co.  2) Tourism’s importance to the Transylvania  Co. economy y 3) Employment trends in Transylvania Co. 4) The U S recession – city analysis The U.S. recession  city analysis 5) Three recovery models for U.S. Economy
    4. But first, something very important to  mention about the Brevard College  g Football Team ……..
    5. How ‘Bout Them Tornadoes! 
    6. Areas of  Focus
    7. Top 10 Western NC Counties for Tourist  Spending in 2008 Spending in 2008 1) Buncombe Co. $711.0 million 2) Swain Co. $233.2 million 3) Macon Co.  $120.5 million 4) Henderson Co. $198.6 million 5) Haywood Co. $113.4 million 6) Transylvania Co. $77.1 million 7) Jackson Co. $69.1 million 8) Cherokee Co. $35.3 million 9) Graham Co. $23.4 million 10)Clay Co. $12.0 million Source:  TIA & NC Division of Tourism, Film & Sport Development
    8. Transylvania Co. Tourist Spending,  1999 ‐ 2008 $90 $ million tourist spending $ illi t i t di $80.1 $77.1 $80 $75.6 $69.9 $ $70 $62.0 $62.9 $64.8 $59.6 $60.8 $60 $ $55.7 $50 $40 Source:  TIA & NC Division of Tourism, Film & Sport Development
    9. Percent Change in Tourist Spending,  2006 – 2007 (before the recession) 2006 2007 (b f th i ) Jackson Co. Jackson Co 6.5% 6 5% Transylvania Co. 6.0% Haywood Co. H dC 5.0% 0% Clay Co. 4.4% Swain Co. 4.2% Macon Co. 3.8% Cherokee Co. 2.8% Graham Co. 2.1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Source:  TIA & NC Division of Tourism, Film & Sport Development
    10. How did gas prices & the recession impact  tourist spending from 2007–2008?  p g (during recession) ‐7.1% 7 1% Swain Co. Swain Co ‐4.8% Jackson Co. ‐4.6% 6% Graham Co. G h C ‐4.5% Macon Co. ‐3.8% Transylvania Co. ‐3.2% Clay Co. ‐2.7% Haywood Co. ‐0.8% Cherokee Co. ‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% 0% Source:  TIA & NC Division of Tourism, Film & Sport Development
    11. Transylvania Co. Taxable Sales per  Month, 2006 – 2009 (June) Month 2006 2009 (J ) 2006 Sales ($) 2007 Sales ($) 2008 Sales ($) 2009 Sales ($) Jan 17,848,627  22,792,959  23,575,889  17,576,189  Feb 15,620,400  20,023,522  14,407,642  13,330,437  Mar 19,424,263  21,462,701  25,250,520  17,771,279  Apr 21,317,240  23,888,196  21,902,111  17,389,467  May 16,804,648  21,703,412  24,245,485  19,821,655  Jun 27,416,615  27,585,527  26,511,608  21,959,170  Jul 31,572,861  23,968,190  25,485,617  Aug 22,789,090  28,673,645  23,228,671  Sep 19,977,364  16,904,337  22,220,731  Oct 24,775,646  23,724,631  21,927,384  Nov 21,791,530  22,856,574  15,874,102  Dec 21,569,548  22,389,814  23,080,437  Total 260,907,832  275,973,508  267,710,197  Source:  North Carolina Department of Revenue & Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    12. Transylvania Co. Taxable Sales per  Month, 2006 – 2009 (June) Month 2006 2009 (J ) $35,000,000 2006 Sales 2007 Sales $30,000,000 2006 2008 Sales 2009 Sales $25,000,000 2008 $20,000,000 2007 $15,000,000 2009 $10,000,000 Note of interest:  Easter holiday 2008 fell on March 23, earliest Easter date since 1913 $5,000,000 $0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec. Source:  NC Dept. of Revenue & Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    13. Brevard City Taxable Sales per  Month, 2006 – 2009 (May) Month 2006 2009 (M ) 2006 Sales ($) 2007 Sales ($) 2008 Sales ($) 2009 Sales ($) Jan 9,610,271  15,478,986  15,878,725  12,815,770  Feb 9,961,570  13,988,550  9,374,594  9,556,853  Mar 11,698,280  12,327,840  17,915,415  12,968,858  Apr 12,866,293  14,308,849  15,237,249  12,418,334  May 10,111,828  13,958,708  14,900,235  13,464,408  Jun 13,766,927  15,435,354  17,798,291  Jul 20,791,541  12,944,426  16,106,983  Aug 14,925,596  16,604,424  15,061,201  Sep 10,671,812  9,731,041  15,363,941  Oct 15,256,854  13,187,508  14,873,720  Nov 13,026,426  14,320,140  11,274,934  Dec 13,672,469  14,100,531  17,778,673  Total 156,359,867  166,386,357  181,563,961  Source:  North Carolina Department of Revenue & Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    14. Brevard City Taxable Sales per Month,  $25,000,000 2006  2009  2006 – 2009 (May) 2006 Sales 2007 Sales $20,000,000 2006 2008 Sales 2009 Sales 2008 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 2007 2009 $5,000,000 Note of interest:  Easter holiday 2008 fell on March 23, earliest Easter date since 1913 $0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec. Source:  NC Dept. of Revenue & Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    15. Annual Taxable Sales for Transylvania  Co. & Brevard City, 2006  Co. & Brevard City, 2006 ‐ 2008 $300,000,000 $275,973,508 $267,710,197 $ $260,907,832 , , $260,000,000 Transylvania Co. $220,000,000 $181,563,961 $180,000,000 $166,386,357 $156,359,867 Transylvania Co. Transylvania Co. $140,000,000 Brevard City Brevard City Brevard City $100,000,000 2006 2007 2008 Source:  NC Dept. of Revenue & Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    16. Impacts of Tourism on the  Transylvania County Economy, 2008 T l i C E 2008 Tourist  Worker  Spending: Payroll: $77.1 Million $77 1 Million $14.9 Million $14 9 Million Employment: State Taxes: State Taxes: Local Taxes: Local Taxes: 780 Jobs $2.99 Million $3.71 Million Source:  NC Division of Tourism. Film & Sport Development & U.S. Travel Association
    17. Q:  If tourists to Transylvania Co.  y spent $77.1 million in 2008, how  much do tourists spend on an  hd i d average day in  average day in Transylvania County? $211,232 Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee 17
    18. Also on an Average Day in  Transylvania Co., tourist spending  Transylvania Co., tourist spending generates… Paychecks worth $40,821 daily State taxes worth $8,191 State taxes worth $8 191 daily Transylvania Co. taxes worth  T l i C t th $10,164 daily $10,164 daily Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee 18
    19. How much in NC State and Transylvania  Co. taxes did Tourism Generate in 2008? • NC State sales taxes $2.99 million • Transylvania Co. local taxes + $3.71 million • Total State & Local Taxes Total State & Local Taxes $6.7 million $6 7 million Source: NC Division of Tourism, Film and Sport Development 19
    20. If we spread out the $6.7 million in taxes   generated by tourism across all  households in Transylvania County, how  households in Transylvania County, how much would this be per household? • According to the U.S. Census Bureau,  there were 17,242 permanent  h resident households in Transylvania  y County in 2007. Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee & U.S. Census Bureau 20
    21. Tourism Tax Relief for  Transylvania Co. Transylvania Co • Each household in Transylvania Co. pays  $388 less in State and local taxes as a  result of tourism economic activity result of tourism economic activity $388 Tax relief f for each  h a sy a a Transylvania  Co. household Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    22. A Big Check for $388 to Each  Transylvania County Household Transylvania County Household For tourism tax  For tourism tax relief of $388  each household  each household does not have  to pay. Provided  to pay Provided by taxes  generate by generate by  tourist spending  in Transylvania  in Transylvania Amount:  $388 County. Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    23. For every $1 invested in tourism for  Transylvania County, each $1 generates… Transylvania County, each $1 generates… $22.70  $22.70 $12.57  in  $10.13  in local  in local combined  combined in State  Transylvania  State &  taxes Co. taxes local taxes local taxes Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    24. What is the Return on Investment (ROI) of  Transylvania County’s Tourism Budget of Transylvania County s Tourism Budget of  $295,000? • $12.57 in local  Each $1  taxes (ROI = 12.57%) taxes (ROI = 12 57%) spent on  • $10.13 in State  tourism in  t taxes (ROI 10 13%) (ROI = 10.13%) Transylvania • $22.70 in State &  Co.  Co local taxes            generates… (ROI = 22.7%) Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    25. How have Transylvania Co. Employment  Trends Changed Since 2002? Trends Changed Since 2002? Industry 2002 2008 Manufacturing 22.0% Education & Health Services 19.1% Retail, Wholesale Trade,  18.8% Transp. & Utilities Transp & Utilities Tourism & Hospitality 15.8% Construction 9.0% Prof & Business Services 5.1% Financial Activity 4.2% Source:  U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics & Dr. Steve Morse, Univ. of Tennessee
    26. How have Transylvania Co. Employment  Trends Changed Since 2002? Trends Changed Since 2002? Industry 2002 2008 Manufacturing 22.0% 4.8% Education & Health Services 19.1% 22.6% Retail, Wholesale Trade,  18.8% 26.6% Transp. & Utilities Transp & Utilities Tourism & Hospitality 15.8% 17.8% Construction 9.0% 10.3% Prof & Business Services 5.1% 8.0% Financial Activity 4.2% 4.0% Source:  U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics & Dr. Steve Morse, Univ. of Tennessee
    27. How has Transylvania Co.      employment changed since 2002? emplo ment chan ed since 2002? 30% Percent of total employment 26.6% 25% 22.0% 22.6% 2002 2008 20% 19.1% 18.8% 17.8% 15.8% 15 8% 15% 10.3% 10% 9.0% 8.0% 4.8% 5.1% 4.2% 5% 4.0% 0% Source:  U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics & Dr. Steve Morse, Univ. of Tennessee
    28. Today’s U.S. Economic Health • Significant drop in GDP in 4th Qtr. ’08,                 g p U.S.  Economy  1st Qtr. ’09, & 2nd Qtr. ‘09 has Slowed • Consumer Confidence Index                         Consumer  hits 25.0, lowest in 30 years hit 25 0 l t i 30 Confidence • U.S. unemployment rate 9.5%                   is  U.S.  unemploy g y ( ) highest in 30 years (Oct. ‘09) ment rate  Source:  U.S. Dept. of Commerce
    29. Top 10 Ways Tourists Reduced Travel  Spending in 2009 1) Take shorter trips (miles) 58% 2) Look for discounts 38% 3) Less on paid attractions 35% 4) Buy less souvenirs 33% 5) L Less expensive lodging i l d i 27% 6) Less nights away home 25% 7) More meals in room More meals in room 18% 8) Drive different vehicle 10% Split costs with others 9) Split costs with others 9% 10) More fast food 8% 29 Source:  Jerry Henry and Associates
    30. When did the recession start? Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic  Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Previous Quarter 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 % change  ‐2.0 ‐4.0 60 ‐6.0 (2006) (2007) (2008) (2009) ‐8.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
    31. Recessions impact some  areas harder than others areas harder than others Let’s identify: y 20 strongest Metro areas  (cities hit least by recession) (cities hit least by recession) 20 middle strength Metro  areas 20 second most weakest  20 second‐most weakest Metro areas 20 weakest Metro areas 20 weakest Metro areas (cities hit hardest by recession)
    32. Percent employment  p y Change in  g change from peak to  unemployment rate  Q Q2 ‐ 2009 March 08–June 09 4 Key Economic  Indicators Used to Rank  Economic Strength of  Metro Areas Percent change in  Percent change in Percent change in  h i Gross Metro Product  housing prices Q1 – produced, peak to  produced peak to 08 to Q2 ‐ 2009 Q2 ‐ 2009
    33. 20 Strongest Economic  Albuquerque, NM Austin, TX Austin TX Metro Areas, as of Q2 – 2009 , Q (cities hit least by recession) Baton Rouge, LA Dallas FW, TX Dallas‐FW, TX Des Moines, IA El Paso, TX Harrisburg, PA Houston, TX Little Rock, AR Littl R k AR McAllen, TX New Haven, CT New Haven CT Okla City, OK Rochester, NY VA Beach, VA Omaha, NE San Antonio, TX Washington, DC Pittsburg, PA Tulsa, OK Wichita, KS Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Brookings Institute
    34. Allentown, PA Atlanta, GA Atlanta GA Baltimore, MD Buffalo, NY  Buffalo, NY Charleston, SC Charlotte, NC Chattanooga, TN Col. Springs, CO Greenville, SC G ill SC Indianapolis, IN Kansas City, MO Kansas City MO Knoxville, TN Provo, UT Springfield, MA Nashville, TN Richmond, VA St. Louis, MO New York, NY Seattle, WA Wooster, MA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Brookings Institute
    35. Akron, OH Bakersfield, CA Bakersfield CA Birmingham, AL Boise City, ID Boise City, ID Chicago‐Naper, IL Cincinnati, OH Cleveland, OH Dayton, OH Greensboro, NC G b NC Louisville, KY Milwaukee, WI Milwaukee WI Minn‐St.Paul, MN Phoenix, AZ San Francisco, CA New Orleans, LA Portland, OR San Jose, CA Orlando, FL San Diego, CA Tucson, AZ Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Brookings Institute
    36. 20 Weakest Economic  Sarasota, FL Ft. Myers, FL Ft Myers FL Metro Areas, as of Q2 – 2009 , (cities hit hardest by recession) Detroit, MI Fresno, CA  Fresno, CA Grand Rapids, MI Jacksonville, FL Lakeland, FL Las Vegas, NV Los Angels, CA L A l CA Miami‐Ft. Laud, FL Modesto, CA Modesto CA Ventura, CA Riverside, CA Tampa, FL Melbourne, FL Sacramento, CA Toledo, OH Providence, RI Stockton, CA Youngstown, OH Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Brookings Institute
    37. Summary = strongest metro areas Economy to  Econom to = middle strength metro areas iddl t th t Q2 ‐ 2009 = weakest metro areas Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  & Brookings Institute
    38. Outlook for 2009 & 2010 (Swimming or treading water?) ( i i di ?)
    39. “Predictions are  difficult,  difficult Especially when  you are talking  lki about the  future.” ‐Y iB Yogi Berra
    40. What will be the shape of our recovery? Economic Growth 1.2 V‐Shaped? 1 0.8 Now N Oct. 2009 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    41. What will be the shape of our recovery? Economic Growth U‐Shaped? 1.2 12 1 0.8 0.6 Now Oct. 2009 0.4 0.2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    42. What will be the shape of our recovery? Horizontal L‐Shaped? H i t l L Sh d? Economic Growth 1.2 12 1 Now  Now 0.8 Oct. 2009 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    43. What is today’s consensus for  recovery? • V‐shaped recovery: 10%  (t d ) –(steady) • U‐shaped recovery: p y 80%  –(getting weaker) • Horizontal L‐shaped: 10%  –(getting stronger) (getting stronger) Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee
    44. For an electronic copy of this  presentation, email me at …… presentation email me at smorse@utk.edu smorse@utk edu Subject:  Oct. 15 presentation j p
    45. Contact Information: Contact Information: Dr. Steve Morse Director & Economist, Tourism Institute University of Tennessee; Knoxville, TN Ph: (865) 974‐6249 E‐mail:  smorse@utk.edu
    46. Thank you for inviting me Th k f i iti Q Questions?  Comments?
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