Pigeon Forge Tennessee hotel lodging tourism

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Pigeon Forge and Tennessee tourism trends including hotel and lodging trends compared to other U.S. resort areas

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Pigeon Forge Tennessee hotel lodging tourism

  1. 1. Hotel & Tourism Trends in Pigeon Forge & Sevier County May 14, 2009 Stephen C. Morse, Ph.D. Director & Economist Tourism Institute University of Tennessee Knoxville, TN Riverstone Ph: (865) 974-6249 Resort & Spa smorse@utk.edu
  2. 2. Agenda 1. Tourism trends in Sevier County 2. Theme park & amusement trends in Pigeon Forge 3. Hotel demand trends (ADR, Occ. Rates, RevPAR) 4. Outlook for 2009
  3. 3. Top 10 Tennessee Counties for Tourist Spending in 2007 1) Davidson Co. $3,991 million (Nashville) 2) Shelby Co. $3,064 million (Memphis) 3) Sevier Co. $1,502 million 4) Knox Co. $796 million (Knoxville) 5) Hamilton Co. $710 million (Chattanooga) 6) Blount Co. $276 million (Maryville, Townsend) 7) Sullivan Co. $270 million (Kingsport, Bristol) 8) Williamson Co. $251 million (Franklin, Brentwood) 9) Rutherford Co. $237 million (Murfreesboro) 10)Washington Co. $188 million (Johnson City) 3 Source: TIA & TN Dept. of Tourist Development
  4. 4. Pigeon Forge Business Percent of Sector (2007) Gross Sales Lodging 16% Amusements 15% Restaurants 14% Retail & Services 12% Outlets 11% Gas & Grocery 10% Theaters (Source: City of Pigeon Forge) 7% Craft, Gift & Specialty 6%
  5. 5. 2008 Tourism Related Tax Revenues for Pigeon Forge • 1% Gross Business Receipts Tax $7.1 million • 2% Amusement Tax $2.5 million • 2.25% Lodging Tax $3.1 million TOTAL Tourism $12.7 Million Related Taxes Source: City of Pigeon Forge
  6. 6. Tourism Tax Relief per Pigeon Forge Household • Each permanent resident household in Pigeon Forge pays $4,775 less in local city taxes as a result of taxes generated by tourist activity Source: City of Pigeon Forge; U.S. Census Bureau; Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee (based on 2,648 resident households)
  7. 7. Tourism Tax Relief per Pigeon Forge Household $4,775 Tax relief for each Pigeon Forge household Source: City of Pigeon Forge; U.S. Census Bureau; Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee (based on 2,648 resident
  8. 8. Sevier Co. ranks lowest in TN for effective property tax rates Property Tax / Housing Value • Shelby Co. 1.29% • Davidson Co. 0.95% • Anderson Co. 0.87% • Knox Co. 0.73% • Blount Co. 0.54% • Sevier Co. 0.35% Source: Local Tax Burdens on TN Households; TN Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations; Staff Report Volume V – August 2007
  9. 9. 2008 Amusement & Theme Park $25 Gross Sales, Pigeon Forge Millions $ $20 $15 $10 $5 Source: City of Pigeon Forge $0
  10. 10. How was 2008 vs. 2007 for Amusement & Theme Park Gross Sales? Percent Change 60% 2008 vs. 2007 Pigeon Forge 41.0% 40% Flat Summer of 2008 20% 11.5% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0% -6.0% -20% -11.0% -10.0% -14.2% -19.0% -18.3% Source: City of Pigeon Forge -40%
  11. 11. How is 2009 so far for Amusements & Theme Park Gross Sales? Percent Change 2009 vs. 2008, Pigeon Forge 80% 62.4% Dollywood 60% open Jan 40% 1-3 20% 1.7% 0% -20% Source: City of Pigeon Forge -19.2% -40% Jan Feb Mar
  12. 12. How was 2008 vs. 2007 for Hotel Gross Sales? Percent Change 2008 vs. 2007, Pigeon Forge 20% 12.0%13.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.2% 0% -6.0% -6.0% -8.0% -20% -16.0% -13.4% -16.1% -18.0% Source: City of Pigeon Forge -40%
  13. 13. How is 2009 so far for Hotel Gross Sales? Percent Change 2009 vs. 2008, Pigeon Forge 0% -2.8% -11.3% -20% -23.0% Source: City of Pigeon Forge -40% Jan Feb Mar
  14. 14. Feb. 2009 vs. Feb. 2008, Hotel Occupancy Rate – Percent Change 2% 1.1% 0% -2% -4% -3.5% -6% -5.3% -5.0% -8% -6.7% -10% -9.2% -10.1% -12% -11.1% -14% -13.1% Source: Smith Travel Research
  15. 15. March 2009 vs. March 2008 Hotel Occupancy Rate – Percent Change 0% -2% -4% -6% -4.8% -6.0% -8% -10% -10.0% -9.6% -12% -11.6%-11.4%-11.1%-10.7% Source: Smith Travel Research -14% -12.9%
  16. 16. U.S. Lodging industry begins 2009 on a sour note (% change YTD Feb. 09 vs. Feb. 08) 5% + 3.4% Demand Occupancy ADR RevPar 0% Supply (new -5% rooms) - 6.5% - 7.5% -10% - 10.5% -15% The Perfect Storm to slow the hotel - 16.3% -20% industry Source: Smith Travel Research
  17. 17. Let’s Compare Sevier Co. Hotel Performance to These Resort Areas in the U.S. Myrtle Beach, SC Charleston, SC Daytona Beach, FL Orlando, FL Branson, MO Panama City, FL
  18. 18. Myrtle Beach, SC vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates, 2008 over 2007 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% BLACK = Myrtle Beach, SC RED = Sevier Co. -25% -30% = Sevier Co. Occ Rate changed less Source: Smith Travel Research
  19. 19. Branson, MO vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates, 2008 over 2007 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% BLACK = Branson, MO -40% RED = Sevier Co. -50% = Sevier Co. Occ. Rate changed -60% Source: Smith Travel Research less
  20. 20. Orlando, FL vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates, 2008 over 2007 5% 0% -5% -10% BLACK = Orlando, FL -15% RED = Sevier Co. -20% = Sevier Co. OccSmith Travel Research less Source: Rate changed
  21. 21. Panama City, FL vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates, 2008 over 2007 30% 25% BLACK = Panama City, FL 20% RED = Sevier Co. 15% 10% = better Sevier Co. Occ Rate 5% changed less 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Source: Smith Travel Research
  22. 22. Daytona Beach, FL vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates, 2008 over 2007 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% BLACK = Daytona Beach, FL RED = Sevier Co. -20% -25% = Sevier Co. Occ Rate changed less Source: Smith Travel Research
  23. 23. Charleston, SC vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates, 2008 over 2007 0% -5% -10% BLACK = Charleston, SC -15% RED = Sevier Co. -20% = Sevier Co. Occ Rate changed less Source: Smith Travel Research
  24. 24. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Avg. Daily Rates (ADR), 2008 over 2007 6% 4.2% 4% 3.6% 3.1% 2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0% -2% -1.3%-1.5% -4% -3.8%-3.7%-3.9% -6% Source: Smith Travel Research -5.9% -8%
  25. 25. Sevier Co. – Percent Change RevPAR, 2008 over 2007 5% 1.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0% -1.6% -5% -6.5% -6.0% -10% -10.1% -10.2% -11.9% -12.3% -15% -14.4% -20% Source: Smith Travel Research -19.4% -25%
  26. 26. Outlook for 2009 (Swimming or treading water?)
  27. 27. 2009 Economic Stimulus Package Not much help – Why? • 2008 stimulus package provided lump sum checks of $2,400 for family of five • 2009 stimulus package spreads same amount over full year to equal $13 more per week
  28. 28. Gas prices fall from $4.00+, but are beginning to rise $4.50 $4.11 $4.00 $3.50 $3.28 $3.00 $2.50 $2.18 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 20-Mar-08 Record High - 11-May-09 7/14/08 Source: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report
  29. 29. What will be the shape of our recovery? Economic Growth V-Shaped? 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  30. 30. What will be the shape of our recovery? Economic Growth U-Shaped? 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  31. 31. What will be the shape of our recovery? Horizontal L-Shaped? Economic Growth 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  32. 32. What is today’s consensus for recovery? • V-shaped recovery: 10% –(getting weaker) • U-shaped recovery: 85% –(getting weaker) • Horizontal L-shaped: 5% –(getting stronger)
  33. 33. Smith Travel Research Hotel Data Conference • August 4-5, 2009 • Nashville, TN • More information at: www.strglobal.com
  34. 34. Thank you for inviting me Questions? Comments? Stephen C. Morse, Ph.D. Director & Economist Tourism Institute University of Tennessee Knoxville, TN PH: (865) 974-6249 Email: smorse@utk.edu

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