What will it take to turn the tide?Bernhard SchwartländerYogan PillayTill BaernighausenPresentation to the International A...
Doing it better
Business as usual will lead to stagnationHIV investment US$ (billions)                                25                  ...
Business as usual will lead to stagnationHIV investment US$ (billions)                                25                  ...
Better investments can achieve large gainsHIV investment US$ (billions)                                25                 ...
Pay now or pay foreverHIV investment US$ (billions)                                25                                     ...
Value for money: doing the right things300 000                                                            Russian Federati...
Value for money: doing things right                               16   AIDS Resources and Treatment scale-up              ...
Value for money: price reductions                Median price of selected first-line regimens in low-income countries     ...
New World
Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order                                           2000      High income      U...
Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order                                           2002                        ...
Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order                                           2004                        ...
Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order                                           2006                        ...
Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order                                           2008                        ...
Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order                                           2010                        ...
Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order                                           2012                        ...
Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order                                           2014                        ...
Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order                                           2016                        ...
Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order                                           2018                        ...
Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order                                           2020                        ...
The vast majority of people living with HIV will be in middle incomecountries      Proportion of people living with HIV by...
Inequality persists despite strong income growth       South Africa: GDP per capita          200%                         ...
Inequality persists despite strong income growth        South Africa: GDP per capita and income distribution            20...
Most people living with HIV will live where the wealth isconcentrated600 big cities in the world in 2025:       25% of the...
New Resources
Wealth for health: economic growth will benefit healthbudgets in low- and middle-income countries                         ...
Options for domestic HIV financing in Africa                                    US$                                     1....
Options for global development financing                         US$                         3 billion                    ...
Those that say it can’t be doneshould get out of the way of those doing it                                  Chinese Prover...
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Turning the tide of HIV

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Presentation by Bernhard Schwartländer, Director of Evidence, Innovation and Policy at UNAIDS, to the International AIDS Conference in Washington, D.C. in July 2012.
Explores progress in getting to zero new HIV infections, zero discrimination and zero AIDS-related deaths, and notes the need for continued investment and options for generating that investment.
As he concludes: together we will end AIDS!

Published in: Health & Medicine
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  • Both countries have per-capita GDP around $13,000Both countries spend about 0.4% of GDP on the AIDS programmeBoth countries have prevalence levels at around 1%Data could go back much further, but this slide still needs data for 2010 and 2011, which should be forthcoming…
  • Almost 90% of all people on treatment are using generic drugs.
  • Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
  • Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
  • Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
  • Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
  • Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
  • Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
  • Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
  • Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
  • Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
  • Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
  • Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
  • Turning the tide of HIV

    1. 1. What will it take to turn the tide?Bernhard SchwartländerYogan PillayTill BaernighausenPresentation to the International AIDS ConferenceWashington D.C.July 2012
    2. 2. Doing it better
    3. 3. Business as usual will lead to stagnationHIV investment US$ (billions) 25 New HIV infections (millions) 4 20 Investment 3 15 2 10 1 5 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011
    4. 4. Business as usual will lead to stagnationHIV investment US$ (billions) 25 4 20 Investment 3 New HIV infections (millions) 15 New HIV Infections 2 10 1 5 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011
    5. 5. Better investments can achieve large gainsHIV investment US$ (billions) 25 4 20 3 New HIV infections (millions) 15 2 10 1 5 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011
    6. 6. Pay now or pay foreverHIV investment US$ (billions) 25 4 2015 gap: 20 US$ 7 billion 3 New HIV infections (millions) 15 2 10 1 5 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011
    7. 7. Value for money: doing the right things300 000 Russian Federation Number of new HIV infections Brazil - 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: UNAIDS
    8. 8. Value for money: doing things right 16 AIDS Resources and Treatment scale-up 7 Africa 2002 – 2011: 14 6AIDS Resources (US$ billion) Millions of people on ART 12 5 10 4 8 3 6 AIDS investment 2 4 Antiretroviral treatment 1 2 - - 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: UNAIDS, WHO 2012
    9. 9. Value for money: price reductions Median price of selected first-line regimens in low-income countries 700 2008 2011 - 60%US$/ppy - 57% - 53% - 41% - 15% 0 TDF TDF TDF ZDV 3TC +FTC +FTC +3TC +3TC +NVP +EFV +NVP +EFV +EFV +ZDVSource: Global Price Reporting Mechanism, WHO 2012
    10. 10. New World
    11. 11. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2000 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low incomeSource: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
    12. 12. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2002 2003 2000 2001 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low incomeSource: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
    13. 13. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low incomeSource: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
    14. 14. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low incomeSource: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
    15. 15. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low incomeSource: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
    16. 16. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low incomeSource: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
    17. 17. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2012 2013 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low incomeSource: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
    18. 18. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2014 2015 2012 2013 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low incomeSource: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
    19. 19. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2016 2017 2014 2015 2012 2013 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low incomeSource: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
    20. 20. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2018 2019 2016 2017 2014 2015 2012 2013 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low incomeSource: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
    21. 21. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2020 2018 2019 2016 2017 2014 2015 2012 2013 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low incomeSource: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
    22. 22. The vast majority of people living with HIV will be in middle incomecountries Proportion of people living with HIV by country income category, 2000 - 2020 100% 80% Income category High 60% Upper middle Lower middle 40% Low 70% 20% 37% 13% 0% 2000 2010 2020Source: UNAIDS, IMF 2012
    23. 23. Inequality persists despite strong income growth South Africa: GDP per capita 200% $10,000 1996-2011 Per capita GDP 100% $5,000 Richest 20% of population 0% $0 Poorest 20% 1996 2011Source: IMF
    24. 24. Inequality persists despite strong income growth South Africa: GDP per capita and income distribution 200% 1996-2011 Per capita GDPShare of nationalincome held by: 100% Richest 20% 0% Poorest 20% 1996 2011Source: IMF, World Bank
    25. 25. Most people living with HIV will live where the wealth isconcentrated600 big cities in the world in 2025: 25% of the population 60% of the global wealth 2 of every 3 people living with HIV will be living in urban areas by 2030Source: McKinsey Institute, UNAIDS 2012
    26. 26. New Resources
    27. 27. Wealth for health: economic growth will benefit healthbudgets in low- and middle-income countries Grow to 15% of Gov Budget: US$ 2 020 bn plus US$ 640 billion Economic growth: US$ 1 380 bn plus US$ 670 billion by 2020 US$ 710 bn Health spending in 2012: US$ 710 billionSource: UNAIDS, WHO 2012
    28. 28. Options for domestic HIV financing in Africa US$ 1.7 billion US$ Airline levy US$ by all African 3.9 billion countries 2.0 billion 75% of an Mobile alcohol levy phone levy US$ US$ US$ 2.4 billion 2.4 billion 3.1 billion 1% income tax levy Contributions from 2% of public sector earmarked for AIDS high-revenue budgets earmarked enterprises for AIDSSource: Estimates for UNAIDS by Oxford Policy Management, 2012
    29. 29. Options for global development financing US$ 3 billion Extending the annual airline levy to all OECD countries US$ 4 billion Issue diaspora bonds (1% of developing-country migrants’ savings) US$ US$ 64 billion US$ 150 billion Global tax on 11 billion Global financial transaction tax shipping and Global portion of aviation fuels widely implemented tobacco taxes (WHO)Sources: World Bank, UN, IMF, AfDB, WHO, International Food Policy ResearchInstitute, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
    30. 30. Those that say it can’t be doneshould get out of the way of those doing it Chinese ProverbTogether we can end AIDS
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