SMC Global Daily Report (Commodities) 25 sep, 2013


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SMC Global Daily Report (Commodities) 25 sep, 2013

  1. 1. CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3436.50 Down 10.09.13 3359.50 3550.00 Soy Bean (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3464.00 Down 10.09.13 3370.00 3575.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Oct) 18-Oct-13 662.50 Down 10.09.13 656.45 665.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Nov) 20-Nov-13 660.25 Down 10.09.13 655.00 670.00 RM seeds (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3503.00 Up 21.08.13 3470.00 3450.00 RM seeds (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3547.00 Up 21.08.13 3497.00 3450.00 Turmeric (Oct) 18-Oct-13 4726.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5116.00 - Turmeric (Nov) 20-Nov-13 4848.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5176.00 - Jeera (Oct) 18-Oct-13 12985.00 Down 24.09.13 12985.00 13600.00 Jeera (Nov) 20-Nov-13 13197.50 Down 24.09.13 13197.50 13700.00 Chilli (Oct) 18-Oct-13 5324.00 Down 06.09.13 5454.00 5700.00 Chilli (Nov) 20-Nov-13 5734.00 Down 06.09.13 5770.00 6050.00 Chana (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3056.00 Sideways 21.09.13 3043.00 - Chana (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3142.00 Up 21.08.13 3274.00 2950.00 Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1451.00 Down 19.09.13 1438.00 1520.00 Cocud (Jan 14) 20-Jan-14 1466.00 Down 19.09.13 1456.00 1530.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Oct) 15-Oct-13 747.50 Down 24.09.13 747.50 820.00 Cardamom (Nov) 15-Nov-13 794.20 Down 24.09.13 794.20 835.00 Mentha Oil (Sept) 30-Sep-13 862.50 Down 10.09.13 892.30 920.00 Mentha Oil (Oct) 31-Oct-13 877.30 Down 10.09.13 905.50 930.00 SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 25 th September, 2013
  2. 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 24.09.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 26-Dec-13 21.59 Sideways 13.09.13 21.72 - Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1316.30 Sideways 12.09.13 1330.60 - Crude Oil (Nov) ($) 22-Oct-13 103.13 Down 24.09.13 103.13 108.50 Natural Gas (Oct) ($) 29-Oct-13 3.56 Down 02.05.13 4.025 3.90 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 24.09.13) Silver (Dec) 5-Dec-13 49152.00 Down 10.09.13 52235.00 53500.00 Gold (Oct) 5-Oct-13 29820.00 Down 10.09.13 30753.00 31200.00 Crude Oil (Oct) 21-Oct-13 6501.00 Down 09.09.13 7056.00 6850.00 Natural Gas (Sept) 25-Sept-13 220.30 Down 06.09.13 229.60 236.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 24.09.13) Copper (Nov) 29-Nov-13 459.20 Down 06.09.13 474.25 480.00 Aluminum (Sept) 30-Sep-13 110.55 Down 04.09.13 117.25 115.00 Zinc (Sept) 30-Sep-13 116.15 Down 06.09.13 121.50 123.00 Lead (Sept) 30-Sep-13 128.70 Down 09.09.13 137.95 137.00 Nickel (Sept) 30-Sep-13 861.60 Down 06.09.13 903.10 940.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 24.09.13) Copper 3 Months 7147.00 Sideways 29.08.13 7153.00 - Aluminum 3 Months 1796.00 Down 04.09.13 1789.50 1880.00 Zinc 3 Months 1875.00 Up 15.08.13 1944.00 1840.00 Lead 3 Months 2064.00 Sideways 13.09.13 2071.00 - Nickel 3 Months 13750.00 Down 04.09.13 13680.00 14800.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  3. 3. Spices: Turmeric futures (Oct) will remain in lower side as sales and demand are poor in spot markets. Despite projections of a lower crop next season there would be no shortage as farmers are also holding back huge stocks with them. Traders and exporters are waiting for bulk demand from North India. Profit booking may contine in Cardamom futures due to sluggish demand in the spot market. Weak export demand, strong availability of the commodity amid weak trend in the spices complex may trigger selling. But short covering at lower level cannot be denied. Jeera futures (Oct) is likely to slip further on rains that brightened the prospects of better sowing while higher stocks and weak demand also weighing on sentiment. Oilseeds: Soybean futures (Oct) is likely to feature range bound movement with a weak bias on higher soybean production estimates. India's summer sown oilseeds output is seen hitting a record high at 23.93 million tonnes in the 2013/14 crop year aided by all-time high soybean output, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said on Tuesday, But price may get support as Heavy rainfall in Madhya Pradesh in the last few days can deteriorate quality of the crop that is ready for harvesting. Supplies in spot market may also get delayed. The soybean price for November delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was 0.23 percent down at $13.1225 a bushel due to growing possibility of higher production. CPO futures (Sept) is likely to remain lower amid subdued spot demand. Weak trend in overseas market further may fuel the downtrend in crude palm oil futures. BMD Market ended lower on expectation of climbing palm oil inventories in South East Asian Counties. Other Commodities: Sugar price may remains lower due to expectations of higher supplies from the new crop. Mills are desperate to trim their inventory as from next month the new production season will start. but still demand is very weak. Chana futures (Oct) is likely to trade with negative bias due to lack of buying amid mounting stocks and expectations of higher sowing. Stockiest are holding a much higher inventory than last year that is sufficient stock to meet the festive demand. Guar futures may continue to slip as the trend looks weak due to huge stock left with farmers. Harvesting has not yet started in the leading guar cultivating areas of Rajasthan but rains during this period are good for the crop. Kapas future may trade downward on poor demand and increasing arrivals of the new crop. the new season is about to start from the next month and buyers are waiting for quality product. Market Update (Agro) Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to witness some short covering at lower levels. Gold can trade in range of 29700-30000 while silver can move in range of 48700-49500. Gold swung between gains and losses amid concern that the U.S. Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its monthly bond purchases before the end of the year after leaving the stimulus program intact this month. Amid a lack of major geopolitical developments or markets moving economic data the past several days, the world market place continues to buzz about last week’s decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to not “taper” its monthly bond-buying program and when might the Fed begin that endeavor. Several Federal Reserve officials have already spoken so far early this week, with the common thread among them being that the Fed would begin to wind down its quantitative easing when U.S. economic conditions warrant. Base Metals: Base metal complex may open on subdued note with some short covering can be seen at lower levels Copper may move in range of 455-465 while nickel may remain in range of 855-870 and zinc may move in range of 115-117.Lead may hover in range of 126-130 in MCX. Copper advanced for the first time in four days on speculation that demand in China, the world’s biggest consumer, will recover after next week’s holidays. The metal for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange gained as much as 0.6 percent to $7,192.75 a metric ton and traded at $7,172 by 11:23 a.m. in Tokyo. Copper increased 1 percent this month and added 6.3 percent this quarter, the first such gain in a year. A report on Sept. 23 from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed manufacturing strengthened more than estimated in China this month, mirroring an increase in August in a similar government-produced index. Data earlier this month showed industrial output grew in August at a faster pace. Energy: Crude oil counter can witness some short covering while natural gas may trade in negative path tracking weak overseas cues. Crude oil may remain in range of 6450-6550 and natural gas may dip lower towards 222 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate snapped four days of losses before U.S. data that’s forecast to show crude stockpiles dropped in the world’s largest oil consumer. Futures rose as much as 0.3 percent before a U.S. government report today that may show inventories slid 1 million barrels to an 18-month low last week. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute said supplies fell 54,000 barrels. WTI dropped to the lowest close in eight weeks yesterday on speculation that U.S.-Iranian relations are thawing and as the threat of an American military strike on Syria receded.
  4. 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable/ Neutral 11:30 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Medium 7 6.9 Metals and Crude oil Favourable 16:30 USD MBA Mortgage Applications Medium 11.20% Metals and Crude oil 18:00 USD Durable Goods Orders High -0.10% -7.30% Metals and Crude oil Favourable 18:00 USD Durables Ex Transportation Medium 1.10% -0.60% Metals and Crude oil Favourable 19:30 USD New Home Sales (MoM) Medium 7.90% -13.40% Metals and Crude oil Favourable 20:00 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Low -4368K Metals and Crude oil
  5. 5. SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011- 25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “” DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.