P

nd
2

Day Opening Drive and
Pullback
James C
1-7-2014
SMB TRAINING is NOT a Broker Dealer. SMB Training engages in trader education and training. SMB TRAINING offers a
number o...
Strategy
• P strong momentum stock
• Uptrend since late 2012
• Yesterday (Jan 6) reported continued growth
in radio listen...
Big Picture
• SPY trading near all time highs 184.69 (Dec 31)
• 1st 3 trading days 2014 seeing pullback into
support just above 182
• This morning (Jan 7) pre-mkt SPY gapping
above 183
• Holding above here on the open will bring
183.60 into play – 2014 r...
Intraday Fundamentals
• P greater than expected growth in radio listenership for
December
• Growth in subscribers and hour...
Long Term Technicals
• Strong 2013 breaking above ipo highs (26) mid
September
• Since then very tradable long and short with
good momentum swi...
Short Term Technicals
• Yesterday’s move (Jan 6) was significant in that
any pullback was very shallow and short lived
until the end of day when...
• Pre-mkt P showing weakness below close
31.49
Trade Management
• Pre-mkt set bids just above 31 and 30.65 hoping
for a quick flush on the open.
• P opening low 31.16
• ...
• Couldn’t hold previous day high (32.45)
pulling back to 32 area
• 32.20 acted as support
• Bought Tier 1 32.22
• Sold ½ ...
Review
• Need to work on Reason2sell to extend gains
• Ok to take some risk off
• Let the rest run until there is a genuin...
Notes
• P has more upside over the coming days and
weeks – until the story changes
• Know your levels every day
• Tomorrow...
P Opening Drive and Pullback - Jan 7, 2014
P Opening Drive and Pullback - Jan 7, 2014
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P Opening Drive and Pullback - Jan 7, 2014

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http://wp.me/p2BBgh-96R A trader from the SMBU Trading Community, but not our desk, presented a trade virtually. Trader James C is a recent graduate of SMB DNA 2013. Attendance is free for SMBU Tools subscribers, who can also ask questions during the event. See the power point of  this archived trade: $P 2nd Day Opening Drive and Pullback.

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P Opening Drive and Pullback - Jan 7, 2014

  1. 1. P nd 2 Day Opening Drive and Pullback James C 1-7-2014
  2. 2. SMB TRAINING is NOT a Broker Dealer. SMB Training engages in trader education and training. SMB TRAINING offers a number of products and services, both electronical (over the internet through smbtraining.com) and in person. SMB TRAINING also offers web-based, interactive training courses on demand. The seminars given by SMB TRAINING are for educational purposes only. This information neither is, nor should be construed, as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. You shall be fully responsible for any investment decision you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. This material is being provided to you for educational purposes only. No information presented constitutes a recommendation by SMB TRAINING or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein or to engage in any specific investment strategy. The content neither is, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy, sell, or hold any securities. You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs. SMB Training and SMB Capital Management, LLC are separate but affiliated companies. No relevant positions Please note: Hypothetical computer simulated performance results are believed to be accurately presented. However, they are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and are subject to change without any notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Since, also, the trades have not actually been executed; the results may have been under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any portfolio will, or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. All investments and trades carry risks.”
  3. 3. Strategy • P strong momentum stock • Uptrend since late 2012 • Yesterday (Jan 6) reported continued growth in radio listenership leading to powerful move to new all time highs with realtive strength to a weak SPY • Today look for pullbacks into support for continuation of move higher
  4. 4. Big Picture
  5. 5. • SPY trading near all time highs 184.69 (Dec 31) • 1st 3 trading days 2014 seeing pullback into support just above 182
  6. 6. • This morning (Jan 7) pre-mkt SPY gapping above 183 • Holding above here on the open will bring 183.60 into play – 2014 resistance area – • This may give added support to strong stocks such as P
  7. 7. Intraday Fundamentals • P greater than expected growth in radio listenership for December • Growth in subscribers and hours listened • Announced plans to launch in-car advertising • ATR – no exact data on this but certainly over $1 and yesterday 3.45 • ADV 9M • Short 21.7% - mainly due to increased competition in radio space from itunes google and spotify • Combine short interest with good data – expect further gains until the story changes
  8. 8. Long Term Technicals
  9. 9. • Strong 2013 breaking above ipo highs (26) mid September • Since then very tradable long and short with good momentum swings as the longs/shorts battle it out • Each attempt to roll P over has ended in reversals higher – generally buoyed by impressive data
  10. 10. Short Term Technicals
  11. 11. • Yesterday’s move (Jan 6) was significant in that any pullback was very shallow and short lived until the end of day when a larger pullback happened into the close • AM meeting Steve identified 31 and 30.65 support for good r/r for a move to new highs
  12. 12. • Pre-mkt P showing weakness below close 31.49
  13. 13. Trade Management • Pre-mkt set bids just above 31 and 30.65 hoping for a quick flush on the open. • P opening low 31.16 • Noted buying 31.20s and 30s • Initial Resistance 31.50 • Started to hold 31.40 • Bought Tier 1 31.47 • Sold Tier 1 32.05 • Continued strength making new all time high 32.74
  14. 14. • Couldn’t hold previous day high (32.45) pulling back to 32 area • 32.20 acted as support • Bought Tier 1 32.22 • Sold ½ on move to highs 32.62 • Sold ½ 32.97
  15. 15. Review • Need to work on Reason2sell to extend gains • Ok to take some risk off • Let the rest run until there is a genuine change in tone • Example on this trade is moving above yesterday high 32.45 and then unable to hold it = reason2sell • Good job buying into pullback • Add holding above 32.45 and 32.74 for the next leg
  16. 16. Notes • P has more upside over the coming days and weeks – until the story changes • Know your levels every day • Tomorrow support areas 32.20s 31.20 • High 33.70

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