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Katie Kopec, Jones Lang LaSalle, "Miasta, które wygrywają"


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Katie Kopec, Jones Lang LaSalle, Miasta, które wygrywają

Katie Kopec, Jones Lang LaSalle, Miasta, które wygrywają

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  • 1. City Futures: The New Geography of Real Estate Katie Kopec International Director 22nd November 2013
  • 2. A New World Order of Cities Deep Urbanisation and a Changing Hierarchy: 1 million a week move to a city 2
  • 3. The Choices for People, Capital and Companies Investor Choice: 1990: 30 cities | Corporate Choice: 1990: 100 cities | 2013: 150 Cities 2013: 600+ Cities 3
  • 4. The Rise of Mayoral Power Boris Johnson - London Boris’s Bikes – River crossings and airports Michael Bloomberg - New York Changed the face of New York Bertrand Delanoë - Paris Improved quality of life, reduce pollution, cut traffic Kadir Topbas - Istanbul Transformed the Gateway City Antonio Villaraigosa - Los Angeles Introduced half a penny sales tax exclusively earmarked for transportation: Luke Ravenstahl - Pittsburgh Youngest mayor in history of Pittsburgh at 26. Hosted G20 in 2009. Lisa Scaffidi - Perth Internationally connected, changed perceptions Iñaki Azkuna - Bilbao Transformed Bilbao ‘World’s best mayor’2012.’ Huang Qifan - Chongqing His vision is to make Chongqing a ‘world famous car town’ and to ‘Create a new silk route to Europe’ Dieter Salomon - Freiburg ‘Mayor of the greenest city in the world’ (The Guardian) Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
  • 5. World Winning Cities Programme Diced and Spliced the Urban Network – When and Where Next?
  • 6. Resurgence of Geography Cities have Nowhere to Hide 6
  • 7. Statistics with Character : The Personality of Change The Bold Statistic 600 cities are on the real estate radar screen of corporates The Unexpected Statistic In 2020 the US will have 11 out of the 30 largest (GDP) cities in the world The Curious Statistic 50% of global real estate investment - in only 30 highorder cities The Heritage Statistic By 2020 Europe will have only 4 of the top 30 cities in the world The Anticipated Statistic The world’s top ten fastest growing cities will be in China
  • 8. The Bold Statistic
  • 9. Over 600 cities on the corporate radar Half of Global GDP Based on population, GDP, corporate presence, air connectivity, commercial real estate stock and real estate investment volumes Source; Jones Lang LaSalle, 2013 The most populous, productive and connected cities, home to MNC’s, Capital and Skills 9
  • 10. Gdansk’s Position on the World Stage 7 30 81 83 92 Budapest Bucharest Gdansk Cobweb Prague St Petersburg high Istanbul Warsaw Global Status Score Moscow 97 low 570 484 351 306 287 197 159 147 112 110 Global Ranking Population Real Estate Investment Volumes City GDP 2010 Office Stock GDP/Capita Kiev Sofia Bratislava Connectivity Corporates Krakow Wroclaw Outsourcing Katowice Poznan Gdansk Lodz Based on population, GDP, corporate presence, air connectivity, commercial real estate stock and real estate investment volumes 10
  • 11. Do Mid-Weight Cities Show More Potential? Capital stays in Capitals but activity seeks Betas and Gammas GDP change 2012 - 2020 Alpha Cities (Top 30 cities) 3.2 % Beta Cities (31-100 cities) 3.3 % Gamma Cities (101-300 cities) 3.9 % 3.5 % World % change per year Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Global Insight, Experian, Deloitte Access Economics, Conference Board of Canada,
  • 12. The Unexpected Statistic
  • 13. Where is the city growth in ‘advanced’ economies? Brisbane Perth Hong Kong Austin Gdansk San Jose Raleigh Taipei Calgary Edmonton Tel Aviv Singapore Salt Lake City Charlotte Warsaw Stockholm Orlando Phoenix Oslo Vancouver Dallas GDP Change, 2012-2016 % pa 0 1 2 3 4 5 Relates to cities in advance economies (defined by IMF) with a population of more than 1m Australian cities are based on state level GDP projection Source: Source: IHS Global Insight, Oxford Economics, Conference Board of Canada, Deloitte Access Economics, 2012
  • 14. The Curious Statistic
  • 15. Where is the money going? Top 30 cities for direct commercial real estate investment, 2008–Q3 2012 Top 10 US$ bill 1. London 109 2. Tokyo 3. 11 – 20 US$ bill 21 – 30 US$ bill 11. Shanghai 22 21. Melbourne 12 89 12. Beijing 20 22. Berlin 12 New York 64 13. Chicago 19 23. Dallas 11 4. Paris 44 14. Moscow 18 24. Calgary 11 5. Hong Kong 37 15. Stockholm 17 25. Houston 11 6. Singapore 31 16. San Francisco 17 26. Frankfurt 11 7. Seoul 30 17. Sydney 15 27. Madrid 10 8. Los Angeles 28 18. Taipei 15 28. Hamburg 10 9. Washington DC 26 19. Boston 14 29. Oslo 10 23 20. Munich 12 30. San Diego 10. Toronto Investment volumes in US$ billions Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Europe Americas Asia Pacific 212. Gdansk 9
  • 16. Real Estate Investment Intensity Top 10 markets in CEE and Polish cities 1 2 3 Wroclaw 4 Budapest 5 Bratislava 6 Brno 7 Poznan 8 Sofia 9 Moscow 10 Zagreb 12 Krakow 21 Gdansk Katowice Lodz higher Prague 23 Investment intensity Warsaw 25 lower Polish cities CEE cities Real estate investment volumes (2008-2012) as proportion of current city GDP Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, 2013 16
  • 17. The Heritage Statistic
  • 18. EMEA: The Future is Innovation R&D Spend as % GDP 8 4 Helsinki 3.5% Stockholm 4.2% 3 Mannheim 3.9% Paris 3.1% 10 7 6 1 Munich 4.8% Toulouse 4.1% Source: Eurostat, OECD 5 Berlin 3.9% Stuttgart 5.3% 2 9 Vienna 3.5% Tel Aviv 4.7%
  • 19. Real Estate Transparency Index 2012 Europe London, Amsterdam Paris, Helsinki, Stockholm, Zurich Highest Frankfurt, Copenhagen, Dublin Madrid, Brussels, Oslo, Warsaw, Milan, Vienna, Prague, Budapest, Lisbon, Tri-City High Istanbul, Athens, Bratislava Moscow, St Petersburg, Bucharest Zagreb, Yekaterinburg, Sofia Kiev, Ljubljana Semi Opaque Belgrade, Almaty Low Minsk Opaque Sources: Jones Lang LaSalle, LaSalle Investment Management 19
  • 20. How important is sustainable regeneration for investors? Green City Index v Investment Volumes R/E Investment Volumes 2008-2011 / Total GDP London Oslo Helsinki Warsaw Prague Bucharest Istanbul Sources: Jones Lang LaSalle, Siemens Athens Budapest Paris Madrid Rome Dublin Lisbon Brussels Berlin Stockholm Copenhagen Amsterdam Vienna Zurich Green City Index 20
  • 21. The Anticipated Statistic
  • 22. World’s Fastest Growing Large Cities: Explaining the Asia Pacific Century Chongqing Tianjin Chengdu Xi'an Changchun Kunming Wuhan Changsha Urumqi Taiyuan CHINA 0 5 % p.a. 2011 - 2013 Cities with populations over 3 million. Based on province level forecasts Source: IHS Global Insight 10 15
  • 23. China50 Hierarchy The tiers of real estate opportunity Tier 1.5 Transitional: e.g. Chengdu, Chongqing, Tianjin, Shenyang • Large, open diverse economies • Strong presence of MNC’s and domestic firms = Potential across all commercial sectors HEILONGJIANG Harbin Tier 2 Growth: JILIN Shenyang XINJIANG e.g. Xi’an, Qingdao, Changsha, Zhengzhou • Strong demographics supporting robust retail markets and industrial diversification = Strengths in retail, logistics, business parks INNER MONGOLIA QINGHAI e.g. Kunming, Harbin, Changchun, Nanning • Moving towards the ‘lift-off’ phase TIBET • Aggressively being targeted by retailers / hotel operators = Retail, hotels, pioneering corporates HEBEI SHANXI Lanzhou Xuzhou ANHUI JIANGSU Nanjing Xiangyang Hefei SHAANXI HUBEI CHONGQING Chongqing GUIZHOU Guiyang Kunming Jinan Zhengzhou HENAN Chengdu Yantai Weifang Qingdao SHANDONG Luoyang Xi’an GANSU e.g. Guiyang, Urumqi, Taiyuan • Target for first-mover advantage = Retail, hotels, pioneering corporates Wuhan Hangzhou ZHEJIANG HUNAN GUANGXI YUNNAN Nanning Indicates levels of economic and property activity Dalian Shijiazhuang Taiyuan Changsha Tier 1 cities (not part of China50) LIAONING Tangshan Tianjin SICHUAN Tier 3 Early Adopter: HEBEI Hohhot NINGXIA Tier 3 Emerging: Jilin Changchun Urumqi Haikou HAINAN Nanchang JIANGXI FUJIAN Wenzhou Changzhou Wuxi Nantong Suzhou Shanghai Jiaxing Ningbo Shaoxing Jinhua Fuzhou Taipei Quanzhou Xiamen TAIWAN Shantou Dongguan Foshan Shenzhen Hong Kong Macau Zhuhai Zhongshan GUANGDONG 23
  • 24. Some of the Rising Urban Stars … Istanbul Chengdu Monterrey Ahmedabad Panama City Accra Lima Jakarta Luanda Maputo Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, World Winning Cities Wuhan
  • 25. Shoring activity intensifying & diversifying Sample of BPO & SSC Occupiers in CEE Tri-City Poznań Warsaw Wrocław Prague Łódź Kraków Brno Bratislava Budapest Zagreb Bucharest Belgrade Split Sofia EMEA PREDICTIONS
  • 26. What to look out for …. • Changing fortunes in the Top 30 Alpha cities • Mid-sized cities seeking reinvention • US cities retaining considerable economic and real estate weight • The rise of MIST cities • European cities – success built on being innovative, transparent, regenerative • New location scorecards reflecting vulnerability, resilience, social media and city perspectives of the young footloose target market
  • 27. What Tri-City is doing ?
  • 28. Selected Infrastructure Improvements Roads & Airports & Railway • Pomeranian Metropolitan Railway. This railway will revolutionize public transport within Tri-City area connecting Gdansk and Gdynia, via the Gdansk Airport, with western suburbs. • Northern Bypass of Tri-City Agglomeration. A double-lane express route, 14 km long, will be the extension of the existent Tri-City bypass. • Metropolitan Bypass. A double-lane express route will link Gdynia to Gdansk bypassing the upper districts of the metropolis. • Further southward extension of A1 Motorway (the main North-South motorway). Source of information:
  • 29. Selected Infrastructure Improvements Roads & Airports & Railway • Improvement of the Gdańsk Airport. Extension of the passenger terminal along with the road system and enlargement of the cargo terminal to be completed by 2016. • Improvement of Gdynia Airport. The airport will open to general aviation in IVQ 2013/IQ 2014. • Upgrading of the E 65 railway line linking Tri-City and Warsaw. Traveling time should be shorten from 5-6 to 3-3,5 hours. The project is to be completed in 2015. • New railway station in Sopot. • Construction of double railway track to Port of Gdansk. Investment is to be completed by 2015. • Extension of the fast train (SKM) towards City Centre. Source of information:
  • 30. Selected Infrastructure Improvements Port of Gdańsk • Sucharskiego Route connects Port of Gdansk with S7 Expressway and A1 Motorway. • Technical road connecting DCT Gdansk with the Pomeranian Logistics Center – planned. • 2-line railway track. Project will be commissioned by 2015. • New rail bridge over the Dead Vistula River. The rail will increase daily capacity by over 50%. The project is to be commissioned in 2015. • Tunnel under the Dead Vistula. The tunnel will connect Slowackiego with Sucharskiego route linking the inner and the outer port and forming the inner ring of Gdansk. The project is to be commissioned by December 2014. Source of information:
  • 31. So What Can Tri-City Do ?
  • 32. Lessons from Elsewhere-Success Factors • Land Ownership/ Control - Land in single public ownership - Certainty/ Speed - CPO Public acquisition/ private finance • Infrastructure Upfront - Transport - Public realm - Infra Cos 32
  • 33. Lessons From Elsewhere-Success Factors • Strong Vision - Masterplan/ planning - Economic rationale - Build on Strengths/clusters - Critical mass/ Themes • City Marketing/ Civic Leadership - City Authority commitment 33
  • 34. Lessons From Elsewhere-Success Factors • Architecture and Art - ‘Place making’ - Promotion - Tourism - Funding 34
  • 35. Lessons From Elsewhere-Success Factors • Bespoke Delivery Structures - PPPs - Public sector as catalyst - Infra Cos - Land assets Funding Risk Structure - Tax based Top slice risk £30m Mezzanine £10m Institution £7m Debt Provider £75m 35
  • 36. Lessons for Tri-City  Success factors - International best practice  Strong vision/ rationale  Single land ownership/ control- longer lease  Infrastructure – investment up front  Transport  Place/ public realm  Critical mass - early phase to establish place  Architecture – very high quality/ iconic  Civic support/ City marketing  Robust delivery structure-partner  Waterfront exploited/ promoted 36
  • 37. Thank you