19Nov-EG1-Pernick ron


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19Nov-EG1-Pernick ron

  1. 1. Emerging CleanEnergy Trends & Business Innovation NOVEMBER 2013 Ron Pernick Co-Founder and Managing Director, Clean Edge, Inc. Co-Author, Clean Tech Nation CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  2. 2. Claiming the Future • Remember the ThreeLegged Stool: Tech, Policy, Capital all Integrally Linked • Level the Regulatory/Policy Playing Field TECHNOLOGY • Focus on RealWorld Project Deployment CAPITAL POLICY • Leverage Private Capital by Keeping Public Funding for the "Edges” • Embrace Standards, Standards, Standards CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  3. 3. Five Laws of Clean Tech 1 CLEAN TECH CAN SCALE • Global markets for solar PV and wind reached $153 billion in 2012, up from $6.5 billion in 2000 • Brazil now gets more than half its transportation fuels from bioethanol • In Denmark, Portugal, and Spain wind contributes more than 15% of electricity supply • Renewables now provide more of total U.S. energy supply than nuclear CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  4. 4. Five Laws of Clean Tech 2 DEVELOPED WORLD DOES NOT NEED NEW NUCLEAR OR COAL • Unlike China and India, in most of the developed world you do not need to pursue all energy sources to meet future demand • New nuclear is untenable for many nations, especially Japan • Caveat: Germany could be major exception relying on new coal as it phases out nuclear assets • U.S. model: efficiency + renewables + natural gas CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  5. 5. Five Laws of Clean Tech 3 “SMALL TECH” WILL PLAY A CENTRAL ROLE • Nanotech lies at core of many clean-tech innovations • Everything from porous membranes for water filtration to new materials for lithium-ion batteries to biomimicry • Big breakthroughs coming in nanotech, 3D printing, and biomimicry • On demand “minimal” manufacturing more sustainable? CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  6. 6. Five Laws of Clean Tech 4 IT WILL BE A DISPERSED REVOLUTION • Clean tech is sprouting from dozens of hubs: Hyderabad, Vancouver, Shanghai, Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Boston, and San Francisco • We’re talking renewables, efficiency, smart grid, water, advanced materials and more – no one place will own the market • Massive need requires allhands-on-deck approach • All energy is local CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  7. 7. Five Laws of Clean Tech 5 ENERGY TRANSITIONS TAKE DECADES • We are in the midst of the de-carbonization of energy • Stakeholders must embrace “long view” • Long-term policy and business planning required: − China 5-year plans − Japan corporate 50100 year plans − U.S. Northwest 5-year conservation and electric power plans CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  8. 8. Clean-Tech Developments Reshaping the World SMART GRIDS AND THE "UTILITY" OF THE FUTURE • Major 2012 outages from India to Washington D.C., point to need for emboldened grid • A big key: energy storage • Distributed solar generation challenges utility model • Emerging models, such as using buildings as “backup storage,” could ease renewables integration CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  9. 9. Clean-Tech Developments Reshaping the World VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION: HYBRIDS - EVS • Hybrids in near term • Electrification, from hybrid enhancements to EVs, required to meet stringent fuel efficiency standards • EV charging infrastructure development in medium term • Achilles Heel: battery tech advances needed • What will be role of fuel cells, if any? CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  10. 10. Clean-Tech Developments Reshaping the World DEEP RETROFITS TO NET ZERO BUILDINGS • Efficiency is still a lowhanging fruit • Buildings represent around 40% of U.S. energy consumption • Breakthroughs in advanced materials to LED lighting • Living buildings (Bullitt Center in Seattle) • Stronger standards and new financing models CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  11. 11. Clean-Tech Developments Reshaping the World WASTE TO RESOURCE • Waste, as in nature, is increasingly being seen as a valuable resource • San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland, OR recycling food waste – targeting recycling rates at/above 70% • Big breakthrough: Carbon as a feedstock • Magic Hat brewery turning beer by-products into biogas CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  12. 12. U.S. Markets: State of Clean-Tech Industry Overview • Renewable energy accounted for 49 percent of new electricity capacity in 2012 – its largest share ever. Largely a story of renewables, efficiency, and abundant, low-cost natural gas • Clean-tech deployment in the U.S. is largely being driven by state and metro-level activity: Feds are mired in partisanship and budgets have been decimated • Leadership at state and metro levels integrally linked. • Expiration of incentives (wind and solar) loom large • Key challenges to measures like RPS have failed across the country. But other battles rage on (like net metering in AZ) • Valley of death issues for clean-tech startups with VC retreat from early-stage deals CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  13. 13. State Clean Energy Index 2013 Index Top 5 States 1 California remains the top-ranked state, leading the nation in almost every measure of market expansion including new wind and solar capacity, deployment of hybrid and all-electric vehicles, and registration of new green buildings. 2 Massachusetts took the number 2 spot from Oregon in 2013. Long a leader in clean-energy policy, a champion of energy efficiency, and an innovation hub for technology and finance, the state is moving up in the ranks. 3 Oregon moved down to third place, but retains its position as a green center with strong consumer-driven demand for clean-tech products and services. The state is a leader in HEVs, renewables, green buildings, efficiency, among other areas. New York broke into the top five for the first time, a result of its exceedingly 4 energy-efficient economy, supportive policy structure driven by Cuomo and Bloomberg, and increases in corporate and investment activity. Colorado once again comes in at #5. The state continues to accelerate its clean5 tech infrastructure build out, particularly in green building, wind, and solar PV. CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  15. 15. U.S. Markets: Beyond RPS - New State & City Level Financing/Policy Models • Commercial PACE – After complications with residential PACE programs, attention has shifted to the commercial PACE model to finance energy efficiency improvements. Programs have sprung up in dozens of states including CA, CT, FL, NY, and TX. • State-Level Green Banks – As the nation’s first “green bank,” Connecticut’s Clean Energy Finance and Investment Authority (CEFIA) is working to finance large-scale clean energy and efficiency projects across the state. New York has just launched its own Green Bank, and with $1 Billion in backing should have even greater impact. • Metro-Level Built Environment – Chicago Mayor Rahm Emmanuel’s Commercial Buildings Initiative is conducting extensive energy retrofits to some of the city’s biggest and most recognizable buildings. Public-private NYCEEC doing similar in New York City. • Energy storage standards and rulings, namely in CA, position distributed assets for further growth. Companies like newcomer Stem and solar-provider SolarCity looking to enable leasing of energy storage systems. CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  16. 16. Tools for Enabling Clean Energy Innovation 1 Establish Aggressive Targets for Renewable Electricity and Energy Storage 2 Create and Fund Smart Infrastructure Banks (city, regional, national) 3 Leverage Proven Investment Tools from other Sectors (MLPs, REITs, AssetBacked Securities, etc.) 4 Phase Out All Energy Subsidies within 10 Years – Starting with Fossil Fuels 5 Establish and Streamline Open Standards (Building Codes, Charging Stations, PV Installations, etc.) 6 Unleash Crowd Sourcing for Innovative Ideas and Capital 7 Enable New Utility Models like Green Tariffs and Third Party Competition CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  17. 17. Thank You. Ron Pernick Co-Founder and Managing Director Clean Edge, Inc. Co-Author, Clean Tech Nation pernick@cleanedge.com www.cleanedge.com CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  18. 18. Copyright and Disclaimer This publication is the copyright of Clean Edge, Inc. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, transmitted, forwarded, or distributed in any way without the prior consent of Clean Edge. Information contained in this document is not intended to be investment advice or used as a guide to investing. www.cleanedge.com CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
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