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Ehealth 2009 Van Ooteghem Ehealth 2009 Van Ooteghem Presentation Transcript

  • Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers J. Van Ooteghem , T. Tesch, S. Verbrugge, A. Ackaert, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester eHealth2009, Istanbul September 24th 2009
  • IBBT TranseCare project Transparant ICT platforms for eCare Project duration 2007 - 2010 Project website http://projects.ibbt.be/TranseCare
  • CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND MODEL MECHANISMS
    • Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers
  • Competing (e)Care model
  • Tier 3
    • Characteristics
      • Elderly requiring near constant (medical) attention
    • Competing care providers
      • Retirement Homes (RH)
        • Multi-residence housing facilities intended for highest-level dependency elderly
      • WaitingList (WL)
        • High-dependent elderly not able to receive adequate care at the time of need, due to capacity limitations
  • Tier 2
    • Characteristics
      • Elderly requiring extended external attention
      • Staying in their private homes is therefore impossible
    • Competing care providers
      • Service Flats (SF)
        • Assisted living facilities for elderly already needing a certain level of continued care
      • Retirement Homes (RH)
      • WaitingList (WL)
  • Tier 1
    • Characteristics
      • Elderly requiring (some) external attention and care
      • They can stay in their own homes
    • Competing care providers
      • HomeCare (HC)
        • On-demand supportive care provided in the patient's home by professionals
      • HomeCare augmented with eCarePlatform (HC+eCP)
        • Professional homecare facilitated by an eCarePlatform
  • Tier 0
    • Characteristics
      • Elderly still living in their private homes
      • No need for (professional) homecare
    • Competing care providers
      • SelfSustained (SS)
        • Independent living
      • eCarePlatform (eCP)
        • Own initiative for subscribing to an eCarePlatform
  • Model mechanisms
    • Vertically
      • Inflow (Tier 0)
      • Outflow (Death)
      • Churn between services
    • Horizontally
      • Increased level of care
      • Tier 0 Tier 1
  • SIMULATION RESULTS
    • Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers
  • Case study
    • Flemish situation
    • 10 year period: 2010 – 2020
    • Data
      • Obtained from public sources
      • Model refined and assessed by professionals
    • Goal
      • To indicate the trend in how competition between care providers in the sector will evolve
  • Capacity
    • Capacity is limited for service flats and retirement homes
    • Uptake of eCarePlatform services has a positive effect on the length of the waiting list
  • Market shares of competing care providers Tier 3 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 0
  • CONCLUSIONS FUTURE WORK
    • Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers
  • Conclusions
    • Conceptual framework
      • Allows forecasting evolution of market shares of competing care providers
      • Market mechanisms
        • Based on the dependency level of the elderly
        • Competition within tiers (churn)
    • Capacity
      • Tier 3 capacity always needs to be guaranteed
      • Waiting list problem situated in Tier 2
    • Market shares
      • eCarePlatform will gain market share as soon as efficiency and added value has been proved.
  • Future work
    • Techno-economic analysis of eCare platform business cases
      • Input from the presented model
      • eCare value network models
      • Quantitative cost/benefit model
      • Multi-actor analysis
  • CTTE 2010 Ghent, Belgium June 16-18, 2010 Conference of Telecommunication, Media and Internet Techno-Economics
    • Call for papers:
    • user and service adoption
    • pricing strategies for new services
    • value network analysis and competition opportunities
    • regulatory impacts on industry structure and competition
    • OPEX and CAPEX models for network and service providers
    • direct and indirect revenue modeling
    • comparison of novel versus classic investment decision techniques
    • sensitivity studies, risk analysis and real options
    • multi-actor analysis
    • game theoretic analysis
    http://www.ctte-conference.org/
  • Thank you for your attention Questions ? Jan Van Ooteghem [email_address] www.ibcn.intec.ugent.be/te INTEC Broadband Communication Networks (IBCN) Department of Information Technology (INTEC) Ghent University - IBBT