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Resilient Futures: operationalising Resilience for UK Infrastructure and its Stakeholders

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Prof Seth Bullock is a leading UK complexity science researcher at the University of Southampton. …

Prof Seth Bullock is a leading UK complexity science researcher at the University of Southampton.

The Resilient Futures project aims to build a prototype interactive demonstrator simulation that operationalises the otherwise nebulous concept of resilience for a wide range of decision makers and stakeholders.

Published in Education , Technology
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  • 1. Resilient FuturesOperationalizing Resilience for UKInfrastructure and its StakeholdersSeth Bullock, Andy Dainty,Rich Dawson, Pete Fussey,Jonathan Rigg, Brooke Rogers, Institute for ComplexBeverly Searle, Jon Timmis Systems Simulation
  • 2. OriginsAn EPSRC “Sandpit”: Next-Generation Resilience.Aim: generate adventurous, interdisciplinaryresearch projects targeting infrastructure resilience. • 20+ academics from a range of disciplines • + “mentors”, “facilitators”, guest speakers… • …and a BBC Radio 4 documentary team… • One week of presentations and brainstorming Collaborative proposals developed and pitched R-Futures project green lit
  • 3. Future ResilienceWhat will our critical national infrastructurelook like in 2030? In 2050? Beyond?How resilient will it be?Today’s decision makers willpartly determine the answers.R-Futures aim: to enable resilience considerationsto inform current decision making.
  • 4. What do we Mean by Resilience?• the ability to cope with shock or stress• “bounce-back-ability” Iain Dowie: Football manager, rocket scientist
  • 5. Resilience of What to What?For every sector of our national infrastructure... • transportation, ICT, energy, water, waste • health, government, emergency services...resilience is seen as increasingly important.This is particularly significant in the context of: • sustainability • climate change • terrorism
  • 6. White-Out
  • 7. Wash-Out
  • 8. Knock-Out
  • 9. The R-Futures TeamAn interdisciplinary collaboration:- Complex Systems Modellers: Southampton, York- Civil Engineers: Loughborough, Newcastle- Social Scientists: Durham, Essex, Kings, St Andrews
  • 10. Key Challenges• Capture the inter-dependencies between sectors
  • 11. Interdependent Futures...
  • 12. Interdependent NetworksEvery node needsat least one sametype neighbour. AttackGreen edgesindicate additionalinter-network mutual A complexinter-dependencies cascade of failures...
  • 13. Interdependent Resilience Network A NSize of Largest Remaining Connected Component 2 4 K 32 0 0% % Attacked 100%Coupling redundancy (K) increases resilience.
  • 14. Interdependent Resilience Network B NSize of Largest Remaining Connected Component 2 4 K 32 0 0% % Network A Attacked 100%
  • 15. Measuring RobustnessHow should network A and B be connected andcoupled in order to maximise robustness to attack?• If “robustness of Network B” = “size of the largest post-attack connected component of B” Optimal between-network coupling = zero Optimal within-network connectivity = maximal• But real-world networks are coupled together because they need to be.• What if a viable B node were one in a B fragment that remains: large enough + coupled to A enough.
  • 16. Unconstrained Viability (Γ=0.0) 1 1 1Surviving A Initial Coupling RobustnessSurviving B 0 0 0 0 1 4 24 Attack Size Initial Connectivity
  • 17. Constraining Coupling (Γ=0.1) 1 1 1Surviving A Initial Coupling RobustnessSurviving B 0 0 0 0 1 4 24 Attack Size Initial Connectivity
  • 18. Constraining Coupling 1 1 Network A Network B Robustness 0 0 0% 100% 0% 100% Initial Coupling Between Network A and B
  • 19. Influence of Topology 1 1 Network A Network B Robustness 0 0 0% 100% 0% 100% Initial Coupling Between Network A and BSwitching from Erdos-Reyni graphs to regular latticesradically changes the influence of coupling.
  • 20. Open Questions• Spatial embedding• Correlated/structured interdependencies• More than two coupled networks• Hierarchical multi-network structures• Dynamic processes on networks: e.g., flows• Repair and recovery dynamics• What do post-attack networks look like?• How functional are they?
  • 21. Key Challenges• Capture the inter-dependencies between sectors• Engage with the right stakeholders
  • 22. Stakeholders• Cabinet Office – Civil Contingencies Secretariat• Fire & Rescue Service • Halcrow• Institute of Civil Engineers • Costain• Local Authorities • Arup • TFL• National Youth Agency • RUSI • CPNI• Health Protection Agency • DfT • NaCTSO• Community Organisations • BT • Red Cross
  • 23. Key Challenges• Capture the inter-dependencies between sectors• Engage with the right stakeholders• Address the right future scenarios and hazards
  • 24. R-Futures Scenarios
  • 25. R-Futures Scenarios New Tech High-Tech Hamlets i-World Decentralised Centralised Local Power for Local People The Global Village Trad Tech
  • 26. Key Challenges• Capture the inter-dependencies between sectors• Engage with the right stakeholders• Address the right future scenarios and risks• Effectively integrate social science and modelling
  • 27. ScenariosInsight Models Stakeholders
  • 28. Key Challenges• Capture the inter-dependencies between sectors• Engage with the right stakeholders• Address the right future scenarios and risks• Effectively integrate social science and modelling• Make a critical impact on the key stakeholders
  • 29. Beyond “one number”• New understanding of interdependencies A demonstrator system that foregrounds resilience Transformative learning in key stakeholders What is the best new Flooded conduit for insight? area Trapped agents Congestion Evacuation point Built up areas
  • 30. “Serious Games”There is increasing interest and investment ininteractive models for informing policy/strategy.Some key issues revolve around the question of scale:• Spatial: Regional? National? Continental? Global?• Temporal: Acute phase? Recovery? Adaptation?• Governance: Local agencies? National? Community?Where should the boundaries be drawn for seriousgames? What needs to be in and what can be left out?
  • 31. Key Questions for Me• How can academic research projects align with private sector and policy making imperatives? –“Infrastructure” is an increasingly crowded area –But academic and non-academic interests are divergent. –Will we make a difference here and now, or ever?• What do we want from models? –Realistic, Accurate, Predictive –“Computational Thought Experiments” –Serious Games, Decision Theatres?
  • 32. Gaihua Fu Paul Andrews Dan Sage Mehdi Khoury Duncan Mortimer Julia Pearce Kate CochraneLucy Gregson-Green
  • 33. Thank you