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SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation
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SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation

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A presentation conducted by Professor Ram Pendyala, Transport Systems, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University, …

A presentation conducted by Professor Ram Pendyala, Transport Systems, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University, United States of America. Presented on Tuesday the 1st of October 2013

Rapidly evolving vehicular technologies, including the advent of driverless and connected vehicles, are likely to have far-reaching implications on the design, development, provision, and financing of infrastructure in the future. 
There is widespread interest in and debate on the possible impacts that autonomous vehicles will have on people’s activity travel patterns, location choices, vehicle ownership, and use of time. At the same time, ubiquitous mobile technologies and rapidly evolving communication systems
have provided the ability to access information any time anywhere, and to obtain instantaneous feedback on the
financial, temporal, energy, carbon, and health impacts of the full range of travel choices that may be exercised by users of the transport infrastructure. The gradual penetration of driverless and connected vehicles into households and business fleets over a period of time will necessitate the adaptation of existing infrastructure
to deal with a mixed fleet of autonomous and manually controlled vehicles on the transition to a fully automated transportation system. This presentation focuses on the
scenarios that may play out on the path to transport automation and the implications of the different scenarios on the design and provision of infrastructure. The presentation will draw a distinction among various emerging vehicular technologies, consider market penetration scenarios, identify the range of behavioral choices and outcomes that may result from the ownership of such vehicles, and assess the sustainability implications of emerging vehicles.  While driverless vehicles may ease the stress of driving, enhance safety, reliability, and capacity utilization, and allow travelers to use travel time productively, many of these benefits do not necessarily come without costs. The convenience afforded by such
technologies may lead to dramatic shifts in work and home location choices that result in larger vehicle miles of travel – which will in turn have implications from energy, environmental, and infrastructure provision perspectives.  This presentation includes a discussion of the multitude of perspectives that must be considered in planning for a driverless transportation system of the future.This presentation is the result of a collaboration between Professor Pendyala and Professors Brad Allenby and Mikhal Chester

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  • 1. ENDORSING PARTNERS Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and www.isngi.org transport automation The following are confirmed contributors to the business and policy dialogue in Sydney: • • Rick Sawers (National Australia Bank) Nick Greiner (Chairman (Infrastructure NSW) Monday, 30th September 2013: Business & policy Dialogue Tuesday 1 October to Thursday, 3rd October: Academic and Policy Dialogue Presented by: Professor Ram Pendyala, Transport Systems, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University, United States of America www.isngi.org
  • 2. Next Generation Infrastructure Implications of Autonomous Vehicles and Transport Automation Ram M. Pendyala School of Sustainable Engineering & the Built Environment Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ October 1-4, 2013; Wollongong, Australia International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure
  • 3. Drivers of Travel Demand Time Growth in • Income • Knowledge Specialization in • Employment • Consumption • Social relationships • Time use Growth in • Person Travel • Commerce • Communication Source: Polzin (2010)
  • 4. I’m not going to Disney. I’m going to stay home and watch the Disney Channel on the Big Screen First thing I’m going to do is sell my big pickup truck and go for a walk Mobility Aspirations I can’t wait to cancel my trip for the family reunion and move to a small condo downtown Source: Polzin (2010)
  • 5. Connected Vehicle Research  Connected vehicle research addresses a suite of technologies and applications that use wireless communications to provide connectivity:  Among vehicles of all types  Among vehicles and a variety of roadway infrastructures  Among vehicles, infrastructure, and wireless consumer devices An initiative of the USDOT Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office
  • 6. Connected Vehicle Research
  • 7. A “Connected” Vehicle Data Sent from the Vehicle Real-time location, speed, acceleration, emissions, fuel consumption, and vehicle diagnostics data Data Provided to the Vehicle Real-time traffic information, safety messages, traffic signal messages, eco-speed limits, ecoroutes, parking information, etc. Improved Powertrain More fuel efficient powertain including; hybrids, electric vehicles, and other alternative power sources Source: USDOT
  • 8. Autonomous (Self-Driving) Vehicle  Google cars have successfully driven 500,000 miles  Set 2018 as expected release date for selfdriving car
  • 9. Autonomous (Self-Driving) Vehicle
  • 10. Levels of Vehicle Automation  Level 0: No automation  Level 1: Function-specific Automation  Automation of specific control functions, e.g., cruise control  Level 2: Combined Function Automation  Automation of multiple and integrated control functions, e.g., adaptive cruise control with lane centering  Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation  Drivers can cede safety-critical functions; not expected to monitor roadway constantly  Level 4: Full Self-Driving Automation  Vehicles perform all driving functions and can operate without human presence or intervention
  • 11. Government Recognition  Several states in the US passed legislative initiatives to allow self-driving cars to navigate roadways  California, Nevada, and Florida  National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration Policy Statement  Policy guidance on licensing, safety, testing  Autopilot Systems Council in Japan  Citymobil2 initiative in Europe
  • 12. Motivation for Automated Driving Source: Bartels, 2013
  • 13. Infrastructure Provision  Increasingly complex activity-travel patterns  Growth in long distance travel demand  Limited availability of land to dedicate to transport infrastructure  Budget/fiscal constraints  Energy and environmental concerns  Information and communication technologies (ICT) and mobile platforms can be leveraged  Autonomous vehicles leverage technology to greatly increase flow without the need to expand capacity
  • 14. Mobility Implications  Infrastructure considerations tied to potential impacts of transport automation on mobility (people and freight)  Safety enhancement      Virtual elimination of driver error (primary factor in 80 percent of crashes) Enhanced vehicle control, positioning, spacing, and speed harmonization How about offsetting behavior on part of drivers? Need to eliminate possibility of offsetting behavior… No drowsy drivers, impaired drivers, stressed drivers, or aggressive drivers Reduced number of incidents and network disruptions
  • 15. Mobility Implications  Capacity enhancement    Vehicle platooning greatly increases density (reduced headways) and improves flow at transitions Vehicle positioning (lateral control) allows reduced lane widths and utilization of shoulders; accurate mapping critical Optimization of route choice, passage through intersections, and navigation through and around work zones  Energy and environmental benefits    Increased fuel efficiency and reduced pollutant emissions through vehicle operation improvement Clean-fuel vehicles Car-sharing provides additional benefits
  • 16. Per Capita VMT Trend in USA p p 10,500 3,000,000 10,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 9,500 VMT VMT per capita 9,000 8,500 1,000,000 500,000 8,000 0 7,500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total VMT (000,000) 2,500,000 Per Capita Annual VMT 3,500,000
  • 17. Location Choices  Live and work farther away    Use travel time productively Access more desirable and higher paying job Attend better school/college  Visit destinations farther away  Access more desirable destinations for various activities  Increased demand for infrastructure
  • 18. Activity-Travel Choices  Undertake more Travel activities (and Disutility trips) resulting in induced travel demand   Reduced disutility of travel Positive utility of travel  Increased demand for infrastructure 0 C A B D Travel Time
  • 19. Mode Choice  Driving personal vehicle more convenient and safe  Finding parking space no longer onerous  Traditional transit captive market segments now able to use auto (e.g., elderly, disabled)  Reduced reliance/usage of public transit  However, autonomous vehicles may present an opportunity for public transit    Reliable transit service Lower cost of operation (driverless) More personalized service - smaller vehicles providing demandresponsive transit service
  • 20. Vehicle Ownership Choice  Potential to redefine vehicle ownership  No longer own personal vehicles; move towards car sharing enterprise where rental vehicles come to traveler  More efficient vehicle ownership and sharing scheme may reduce the need for additional infrastructure  Reduced demand for parking  Desire to work and be productive in vehicle    Use personal vehicle for long distance travel Desire large multi-purpose vehicle with amenities to work and play in vehicle Increased demand for infrastructure
  • 21. Vehicle Ownership Choice
  • 22. Commercial Vehicle Operations  Enhanced efficiency of commercial vehicle operations  Driverless vehicles operating during off-peak and night hours reducing congestion  Reduced need for infrastructure
  • 23. Mixed Vehicle Operations  Uncertainty in pace of technology availability, affordability, and adoption (market penetration rate)  Need for mixed vehicle operations for considerable amount of time  Infrastructure that accommodates both manual and automated vehicles  Intelligent infrastructure with dedicated lanes for driverless cars  Managed lanes offer opportunity to accommodate self-driving vehicles (dedicated technology-equipped lanes)
  • 24. Smarter Infrastructure Source: http://www.foreveropenroad.eu/
  • 25. Traveler Still Makes Choices  Infrastructure use largely driven by user (departure time choice, origin-destination travel patterns, trip chaining)  Provide information to traveler with incentives to bring about behavioral modification  Combine driverless car technology with traveler information to optimize infrastructure utilization
  • 26. Infrastructure Impacts  Several opposing forces, making determination of net impacts uncertain  Collect data and conduct focus groups to understand possible behavioral impacts with infrastructure implications  Recognize inter-dependent infrastructure systems  Information and communications technology, power, transport  Less need for centralized control  Vehicles serve as decentralized nerve centers communicating with one another  Implement new backup systems to safeguard against failure/hacking
  • 27. Thank You

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