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SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Strategic appraisal of interdependent infrastructure provision: A Case Study from the Thames Hub
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SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Strategic appraisal of interdependent infrastructure provision: A Case Study from the Thames Hub

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A presentation conducted by Ms Kate Young, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford. Presented on Tuesday the 1st of October 2013. …

A presentation conducted by Ms Kate Young, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford. Presented on Tuesday the 1st of October 2013.

Evaluation of potential infrastructure projects varies from straightforward financial assessment, to explicit methods requiring multi-criteria valuation and uncertainty analysis. All, however, are siloed to their own sector and in many cases the stand-alone project under consideration, ignoring the growing interdependence between the sectors.
Reviewing outputs of current assessment methods against the London ‘Thames Hub’ proposal, we develop these into a multi-sector, multi-attribute decision analysis over a 100 year time-frame. Uncertainty is assessed through sensitivity analysis, provisioning time-dependency analysis and an adapted real options analysis, to produce
bounded valuation of decision pathways. Further consideration of spatial feedbacks is then reviewed through a land-use transport model. The results are brought together to demonstrate a strategy level, integrated infrastructure assessment methodology, focused on delivering long-term resilience despite uncertainty.

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  • 1. ENDORSING PARTNERS Strategic Appraisal of Interdependent Infrastructure Provision: A Case Study from the www.isngi.org Thames Hub The following are confirmed contributors to the business and policy dialogue in Sydney: • Rick Sawers (National Australia Bank) • Nick Greiner (Chairman (Infrastructure NSW) Monday, 30th September 2013: Business & policy Dialogue Tuesday 1 October to Thursday, 3rd October: Academic and Policy Dialogue Presented by: Ms Kate Young, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford www.isngi.org
  • 2. Strategic Appraisal of Interdependent Infrastructure Provision: A Case Study from the Thames Hub Kate Young and Jim Hall Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford
  • 3. Appraisal “The acquisition of information to aid a process of rational decision-making and resource allocation” (Townley, 1992), conducted to maximise utility for a given level of resource. Infrastructure Appraisal: • Multiple stakeholders and priorities • Substantial impacts in a number of domains • Decadal lifetimes (impacts and uncertainty) • Factors may not be monetisable or even quantifiable
  • 4. UK Infrastructure Appraisal Opportunity Identification
  • 5. UK Infrastructure Appraisal Regulations & Investment Policy Opportunity Identification Objective Setting
  • 6. UK Infrastructure Appraisal Regulations & Investment Policy Opportunity Identification Timeframe & Change Assumptions Objective Setting Option Generation
  • 7. UK Infrastructure Appraisal Regulations & Investment Policy Opportunity Identification Timeframe & Change Assumptions KPI, Method, Uncertainty Analyses Objective Setting Option Generation Option Appraisal
  • 8. UK Infrastructure Appraisal Regulations & Investment Policy Opportunity Identification Timeframe & Change Assumptions KPI, Method, Uncertainty Analyses Objective Setting Option Generation Option Appraisal Choice and Implement’n
  • 9. UK Infrastructure Appraisal Benefit: • Do minimum is more obvious • Solutions are more comparable and more straightforward to analyse (less impacts) • Limits required skill set and experience of analyst • Limits complexity of solution and thus eases Opportunity Objective Option Choice Option communication of options to stakeholdersand Identification Setting Generation Implement’n Appraisal Regulations & Investment Policy Timeframe & Change Assumptions KPI, Method, Uncertainty Analyses
  • 10. Adding Interdependency
  • 11. Adding Interdependency
  • 12. Regulations && Regulations Regulations Investment & & Regulations Investment Investment Policy Investment Policy Policy Policy Opportunity Opportunity Opportunity Identification Opportunity Identification Identification Identification Timeframe && Timeframe & Timeframe & Change Timeframe Change Change Assumptions Change Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions KPI, Method, KPI, Method, KPI, Method, Uncertainty KPI, Method, Uncertainty Uncertainty Analyses Uncertainty Analyses Analyses Analyses Objective Objective Objective Setting Objective Setting Setting Setting Option Option Option Generation Option Generation Generation Generation Option Option Option Appraisal Option Appraisal Appraisal Appraisal Choice and Choice and Choice and Implement’n and Choice Implement’n Implement’n Implement’n
  • 13. Problem: • Conceals resource constraints • Ignores benefits – Efficiencies through industrial symbiosis – Macro-scale impacts from complementary systems (Bannister & Berechman, 2003) • Ignores direct (and indirect) demand on other sectors Regulations && Regulations Regulations Investment & & Regulations Investment Investment Policy Investment Policy Policy Policy Opportunity Opportunity Opportunity Identification Opportunity Identification Identification Identification Timeframe && Timeframe & Timeframe & Change Timeframe Change Change Assumptions Change Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions KPI, Method, KPI, Method, KPI, Method, Uncertainty KPI, Method, Uncertainty Uncertainty Analyses Uncertainty Analyses Analyses Analyses Objective Objective Objective Setting Objective Setting Setting Setting Option Option Option Generation Option Generation Generation Generation Option Option Option Appraisal Option Appraisal Appraisal Appraisal Choice and Choice and Choice and Implement’n and Choice Implement’n Implement’n Implement’n
  • 14. Adding Time Dependency Uncertainty: Extrapolation of errors • Assumed demand requirement on our sector • Assumed potential for sectoral development without constraint • Assumed development and performance of other sectors
  • 15. Adding Time Dependency Problem: • Assumption of benefits possible and realised • Ignores implications of delay or speedier provisioning on the other sectors • Lock-in to ‘optimised’ decision, ignoring flexibility
  • 16. The Size of the Problem Over £310bn of infrastructure projects to 2015 and beyond: (Infrastructure UK, 2011) Offshore wind deployment Broadband for all Crossrail London Gateway Airport capacity reached in the South East • 80 new flood defence projects • • • • • (Adapted from Engineering the Future, 2013)
  • 17. Aims • To provide a framework capable of appraising multiple sector networks, capturing system impacts and allowing for different sequencing of provisioning options throughout time to make up a functional interacting system; and • To provide a method to view these feasible combinations and their multiple benefits to support the process of decision making from a policy maker’s perspective.
  • 18. Interdependent Appraisal: Strategic Review Spatial Opportunity Identification Multi-sector Objective Setting Cross-Sectoral Regulations Key Sectoral Regulations
  • 19. Interdependent Appraisal: Create Pathways Spatial Opportunity Identification Multi-sector Objective Setting Multi-sector Option Generation Decision Analysis Common Time Frame and Change Assumptions Apply constraints and prerequisites to give pathway permutations
  • 20. Interdependent Appraisal: Analysis Spatial Opportunity Identification Multi-sector Objective Setting Multi-sector Option Generation Decision Analysis Decision Pathway Appraisal Policy approach, consistent MCA, sensitivity and options analyses
  • 21. Interdependent Appraisal: Review Spatial Opportunity Identification Multi-sector Objective Setting Multi-sector Option Generation Decision Analysis Decision Pathway Appraisal Decision Pathway Choice and Implementation Review of Assumptions and Objectives Key assumptions, scheduled review points and triggers for review
  • 22. Interdependent Appraisal: Review Spatial Opportunity Identification Multi-sector Objective Setting Multi-sector Option Generation Decision Analysis Re-review Available Decision Pathways Y Decision Pathway Appraisal Decision Pathway Choice and Implementation Review of Assumptions and Objectives Review of Option to Abort Y Change in Objectives/New Opportunity N Assumptions Accurate N
  • 23. Case Study: The Thames Hub Vision Pictures from Foster+Partners (2011)
  • 24. Current Progress • Review of performance metrics • Decision analysis of the proposal • Options analysis Created using tagxedo.com
  • 25. Current Progress • • • • • Review of performance metrics Decision analysis of the proposal Options analysis Temporal issues Initial MCA Created using tagxedo.com
  • 26. Initial Conclusions Inclusion of the interdependency of infrastructure networks and the time dependency of their provisioning during appraisal is possible and enables • A more complete assessment of the impacts and benefits realised • Development of a more accurate risk profile • Resilient choices through the consideration of flexibility and ongoing review of assumptions • a
  • 27. Initial Conclusions (2) Through our case study: • The potential for cross-sector performance metrics, providing a comparable and therefore prioritisable result • That system benefits and temporal characteristics exist and would not be captured by traditional valuation methods
  • 28. Future Work: Defined Multi-Sector ‘Do Min’
  • 29. Future Work: Asset Benefits and Impacts
  • 30. Future Work: System Benefits and Impacts
  • 31. Future Work: Value of Flexibility
  • 32. Future Work: Land Use Change Feedbacks Stylised location of infrastructure assets
  • 33. Future Work: Summary • Full MCA of all pathways under different policy approaches • Derivation of full decision tree visualisation for stakeholder communication • Land Use Transport Modelling to analyse impacts of interdependencies between developments and population
  • 34. Thank you Contact details: katherine.young@ouce.ox.ac.uk References: Bannister, D. and Berechman, J. (2003). Transport investment and economic development, (Taylor and Francis e-Library ed.). London: UCL Press Engineering the Future (2013). Infrastructure Timelines Report. Retrieved 18 June 2013, from http://www.engineeringthefuture.co.uk/government/pdf/EtF_Infrastructure_Interdependencies_Report.pdf Foster+Partners (2011). Thames Hub: An integrated vision for Britain. Retrieved 10 January 2012, from http://www.fosterandpartners.com/ThamesHub/ Infrastructure UK (2011). National Infrastructure Plan 2011. London: Stationary Office. Townley, B. (1992). In the eye of the gaze: The constitutive role of performance appraisal. In P. Barrar and C.L. Cooper (Eds.), Managing organisations in 1992 (pp185-202). London: Routledge

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