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SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Estimating the emission reduction potential of Australian transport
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SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Estimating the emission reduction potential of Australian transport

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A presentation conducted by Dr David Cosgrove, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE). Presented on Wednesday the 2nd of October 2013. ...

A presentation conducted by Dr David Cosgrove, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE). Presented on Wednesday the 2nd of October 2013.

The Australian Low Carbon Transport Forum (initiated by ARRB, BITRE and CSIRO) was organised to gather knowledge on options for transport emission abatement, with participation of government, industry, academic and other research organisations; aiming to identify options capable of significantly improving transport sector efficiency, estimate possible greenhouse emission reductions for each option, and examine any challenges to
achieving their full potential. This interdisciplinary study analysed a wide range of prospects, covering vehicle and fuel technologies, infrastructure improvements and land-use planning, travel demand management, mode shifts and other behavioural change. A novel aggregation process
was developed, to estimate the maximal benefits, by 2050, from a full package of measures acting together demonstrating that large reductions in expected emissions
should be technically feasible, even with increasing population, without sacrificing access to transport services.

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    SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Estimating the emission reduction potential of Australian transport SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Estimating the emission reduction potential of Australian transport Presentation Transcript

    • ENDORSING PARTNERS Estimating the emission reduction potential of Australian transport The following are confirmed contributors to the business and policy dialogue in Sydney: • Rick Sawers (National Australia Bank) • Nick Greiner (Chairman (Infrastructure NSW) Monday, 30th September 2013: Business & policy Dialogue Tuesday 1 October to Thursday, Dialogue 3rd October: Academic and Policy Presented by: Dr David Cosgrove, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) www.isngi.org www.isngi.org
    • Estimating the emission reduction potential of Australian transport The Australian Low Carbon Transport Forum David Cosgrove ISNGI 2013 University of Wollongong Session: Transport Networks 2 October 2013
    • The Australian Low Carbon Transport Forum (ALCTF) Estimating emission abatement potential for Australian transport What is the maximum feasible emission reduction across the transport sector? What are some of the measures, policies and research directions capable of delivering the desired future outcomes?
    • ALCTF - initiated by project secretariat from: ARRB Group - Caroline Evans BITRE - David Cosgrove, David Gargett CSIRO - Paul Graham
    • ALCTF process: Series of workshops – elicit expert input Assessment of possible options for reducing transport emissions – identify any uncertainties or challenges Quantification of emission abatement potential – both for each option individually and as part of an aggregate set of measures
    • Project process for ALCTF Workshops Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Workshop 3
    • Total Australian Passenger Task Trends 600 Non-motorised Domestic aviation 500 Domestic marine Domestic passenger travel (in terms of passengerkilometres performed) has grown almost ten-fold over the last 60 years... billion pass-km Rail 400 Other Road Bus/Coach 300 Car 200 Business-as-usual (BAU) projections 100 0 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Sources: BITRE (2010), Cosgrove (2008), BITRE estimates
    • Relationship between per capita travel and per capita income levels 16.0 Historical (total metropolitan travel, 1945-2010) 14.0 Projected thousand metropolitan pkm per person 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 Urban per capita travel 4.0 Logistic fit Annual urban pkm per capita (thousands) = 5.46 + 8.19/(1 + (Income/26.71)-5.62) 2.0 0.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 real Australian GDP (2007 dollars, thousands) Sources: BITRE (2009, 2010), Cosgrove (2011), BITRE estimates
    • National per capita tasks relative to economic activity Per capita transport generation Per capita task (thousand pkm or tkm per person) 30 25 20 15 10 National passenger task - 1945 to 2011 5 National freight task - 1955 to 2010 0 5.0 15.0 25.0 35.0 45.0 55.0 65.0 Per capita income (GDP/population) - thousand (2008 $A) Sources: BITRE (2009, 2010), Cosgrove (2008), BITRE estimates
    • Total BAU Domestic Freight Task Projections 1200 Business-as-usual (BAU) projections Air Sea 1000 Rail Non-urban road freight billion tkm 800 Urban road freight 600 400 200 0 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Sources: BITRE (2010), BITRE estimates
    • Modal share of urban transport 90 80 car per cent of total urban passenger task heavy rail 70 60 light rail (powered) walk motor-bus 50 horse 40 30 20 10 0 Sources: BITRE (2010), Cosgrove (2008, 2011), BITRE estimates.
    • Energy use by Australian domestic transport Base case (BAU) projections Sources: fuel sales data, BITRE (2010), BITRE estimates.
    • Energy use by Australian domestic transport Base case (BAU) projections Sources: fuel sales data, BITRE (2010), BITRE estimates.
    • Full-fuel-cycle transport emissions (direct GHGs) Base case (BAU) projections Sources: BITRE (2010), BITRE estimates.
    • Package of measures Largest abatement potentials
    • Abatement potential – assessment framework Table: Abatement estimate example, Electric (inc. plug-in hybrid) light vehicles Category Option Net adoption fraction Market affected Market emissions (2050 Mt FFC CO2e) Savings fraction 2050 Abatement (Mt FFC CO2e) 72.9 0.8 35.8 0.8 22.8 Estimated ‘Individual’ abatement potential Vehicle/Fuel technology Electric cars 0.61 Light vehicles ‘In sequence’ calculated contribution to aggregate abatement Vehicle/Fuel technology Electric cars 0.39 Light vehicles 72.9 Sources: Cosgrove et al. (2012), BITRE estimates.
    • Abatement potential – assessment framework Table: Abatement estimate example, Biofuels for light vehicles Category Option Net adoption fraction Market affected Market emissions (2050 Mt FFC CO2e) Savings fraction 2050 Abatement (Mt FFC CO2e) 72.9 0.65 29.4 0.65 11.8 Estimated ‘Individual’ abatement potential Vehicle/Fuel technology Biofuels 0.62 Light vehicles ‘In sequence’ calculated contribution to aggregate abatement Vehicle/Fuel technology Biofuels 0.82 Light vehicles 22.1 Sources: Cosgrove et al. (2012), BITRE estimates.
    • Abatement potentials (2050) – individual options Sources: Cosgrove et al. (2012), BITRE estimates.
    • Abatement potentials – ‘in sequence’ aggregation Sources: Cosgrove et al. (2012), BITRE estimates.
    • Cumulative per annum abatement by 2050 Sources: Cosgrove et al. (2012), BITRE estimates.
    • Estimated maximal greenhouse gas reductions - selected transport abatement options, considered in isolation and as an in sequence contribution to a transport sector aggregate, by 2050
    • Maximal potential abatement, 2050 ALCTF Aggregate Scenario compared to BAU projections 160000 Domestic civil Aviation 140000 Domestic civil Marine Rail (electric + non-electric) Heavy road vehicles 120000 Light road vehicles Reference case total Gg FFC CO2e 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0
    • References (and further reading from BITRE):  BITRE (2010) Long-term Projections of Australian Transport Emissions: Base Case 2010, Report for the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency http://www.climatechange.gov.au/sites/climatechange/files/files/climate-change/bitre-transport-modelling-pdf.pdf  BITRE (2009) Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Projections to 2020, Working Paper 73, Canberra: BITRE  Cosgrove, D C (2008) Long-term Emission Trends for Australian Transport, Papers of the 31st Australasian Transport Research Forum, Gold Coast: ATRF  Cosgrove, D (2011) Long-term patterns of Australian public transport use, Australasian Transport Research Forum 2011, Adelaide, Australia, University of South Australia http://www.atrf.info/papers/2011/2011_Cosgrove.pdf  Cosgrove, D, Gargett, D, Evans, C, Graham, P and Ritzinger, A (2012) Greenhouse gas abatement potential of the Australian transport sector: Technical Report, CSIRO  CSIRO (2012) Greenhouse gas abatement potential of the Australian transport sector: Summary Report, CSIRO http://www.bitre.gov.au/
    • ATRF 2012 The Australian Low Carbon Transport Forum – Estimating emission abatement potential for Australian transport David Cosgrove (BITRE), David Gargett (BITRE), Caroline Evans (ARRB) and Paul Graham (CSIRO) Contact: Dr David Cosgrove Principal Research Scientist, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics GPO Box 501, Canberra 2601 email: David.Cosgrove@Infrastructure.gov.au ALCTF project reports: http://www.csiro.au/ALCTF