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Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture

Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture

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  • Glyphosate is the largest agrochemical product worldwide and 7 times bigger than the #2 herbicide Acetochlor

J Clarke Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture James Clarke [email_address] Sarah Wynn & Sarah Cook Roundup Ready® Maize Symposium The European Perspective 23-24 March 2010, Brussels
  • 2. Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
    • Background
    • Project methodology
    • Major uses of glyphosate in the UK
    • Major implications and value of use
      • Economic
      • Environmental
      • Social
    • Conclusions
    • Key issues to address
  • 3. Glyphosate in context
    • Important in agriculture and amenity
      • Controls almost all vegetation growing at the time of application
      • Wide range of UK crops and grass
      • Amenity and home and garden sectors
    • Concerns to be addressed
      • Frequently detected in surface water at low levels
        • Above 0.1µg/l drinking water limit
      • Some residues in grain
      • Concentrations below level of health issues
      • Concern that restrictions may be put on its use
    • Monsanto adopting pro-active approach to managing the concerns and ensuring continued availability
  • 4. Glyphosate: world’s best-selling herbicide Source: Phillips McDougall, 2008
    • First marketed 1973
    • No1 selling herbicide since 1980
    • US Patent expired 2000
    • Roundup Ready® patents since 1996
  • 5. Glyphosate in Europe
    • Pre-harvest
      • Cereals, oilseeds, pulses
    • Pre-planting or pre-emergence
      • Wide range of crops
    • Vegetation control
      • Orchards, vineyards, non-agricultural, amenity
  • 6. Herbicide use in UK – area sprayed (ha) and active substance (kg) – arable crops 2008 Source: Pesticides Usage Survey, 2008 Approval ceased 2008
  • 7. Project methodology
    • Desk based project
    • Literature and expert knowledge
      • Project reports and experiments
    • Data sources and validation
      • Pesticides Usage Survey 2008
      • Agronomists and farmers workshops
    • Gross margin calculations
    • Environmental calculations
      • GHG emissions (CO 2 e) based on PAS2050
  • 8. Main glyphosate use in UK
    • Pre-harvest
    • Perennial weed control
    • Harvest aid – reducing moisture
    • Pre-planting
    • Annual and perennial weed control (stale seed bed)
    • Can reduce need for cultivation and reduces herbicide within crop
    • Pre-emergence
    • Annual weed control
  • 9. Typical glyphosate use in UK Pre-harvest Pre-planting Pre-emergence
  • 10. Main reasons for glyphosate use in UK
    • Pre-harvest
      • Perennial weed control
      • Harvest aid – reducing moisture
    • Pre-planting
      • Annual and perennial weed control (stale seed bed)
      • Can reduce need for cultivation and reduces herbicide within crop
    • Pre-emergence of crop
      • Annual weed control
  • 11. Establishing the impacts
    • Identify key benefits
    • Identify alternative approaches
      • Herbicides: diquat, glufosinate-ammonium, pyraflufen-ethyl
      • Other: cultivation, later planting, direct combining
    • Calculate implications of unavailability
      • Cost
      • Social and environmental
  • 12. Benefits of pre-harvest use 10% in wheat, 15% in OSR, greater in spring crops Elytrigia repens control: 100 shoots/m 2 could cause at least 10% yield reductions Weed control Increased combine efficiency – increased speed of travel Lower harvest cost 3.5L/ha fuel saved General Dries out green material lowers harvest moisture (1-2%) Uneven or weedy crops Benefit Timing
  • 13. Benefits pre-planting/pre-emergence Typical benefit 20% increase in yield Bare soil prior to planting reduces pest and disease infection Pre-planting Controls weeds and volunteer crops Stale seed beds Mode of action reduces herbicide resistance pressures Pre-planting and pre-harvest Benefit Timing
  • 14. Value of key benefits of glyphosate 310 Reduce grass weeds, such as Alopecurus myosuroides , volunteers and perennial weeds Pre-planting of winter wheat 108 Desiccant and harvest aid, reduced drying and earlier harvest Pre-harvest in oilseed rape 56 Elytrigia repens control to prevent yield loss across a rotation, reduction in drying costs Pre-harvest in winter wheat Value (£/ha treated) Key benefits Use
  • 15. Assessing impacts at UK scale
    • Crop areas
    • Average areas affected by weeds
    • Usage patterns/area treated
      • Pesticide Usage Survey
      • Agronomist/farmer workshops
  • 16. Wheat and oilseed rape: major UK crops Source: Defra Statistics 2008, UK
  • 17. Area treated with glyphosate in UK 2008 Source: Pesticides Usage Survey, 2008 1.20 1.39 1.25 1.17 1.14 1.18 1.16 No of applications 41 51 73,000 Beans 87 45 19,000 Peas 96 70 529,000 OSR 94 19 23,000 Oats 83 26 175,000 Spring barley 77 25 120,000 Winter barley 78 27 651,000 Wheat % Pre-harvest % crop treated Area treated (spray ha) Crop
  • 18. % area treated, by crop, with glyphosate Sources: Pesticide Usage Survey 2008 (PUS), Agronomist/Farmer meetings in West & East of England
  • 19. % area treated, by crop, with glyphosate Sources: Pesticide Usage Survey 2008 (PUS), Agronomist/Farmer meetings in West & East of England
  • 20. Yields reduced without glyphosate
  • 21. Yields reduced without glyphosate
  • 22. Estimated % loss of production to UK, by crop, without glyphosate
  • 23. Estimated loss £m to UK, all crops, without glyphosate
  • 24. Estimated losses £m, by crop, without glyphosate Sources: Pesticide Usage Survey 2008 (PUS), Agronomist/Farmer meetings in West & East of England
  • 25. Impact of losses at farm scale
    • Wheat, wheat, oilseed rape (OSR)
    • On a 100 ha farm
    • £47,300 annual cost
    • Unprofitable to grow crops
    • Rotational change
  • 26. Impact of loss on food prices
    • To maintain current farm income levels requires increased price/tonne of:
      • Wheat 40%
      • Oilseed rape 26%
    • Increase in price of products
      • Bread 3.6p/loaf
      • Livestock feed and meat prices
  • 27. Environmental impacts
    • Soils
      • More cultivation , more erosion, poorer structure
    • Land use
      • Limited availability, GHG impacts
    • Biodiversity
      • If more spring cropping
      • Increased cultivation, Land Use Change (LUC)
    • Water quality
      • Alternative herbicides, sediment
    • Greenhouse gas emissions
  • 28. Implications for GHG emissions
    • Based on PAS2050 1 methodology
    • Default value for LUC (could be underestimate)
    • Increased fuel use
    • Low yields increase emissions per tonne
    • Estimate increase CO 2 e of up to 20%
    1 Publicly available specification 2050 (PAS2050):2008 – Specification for the assessment of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of goods and services. Available from www.bsigroup.com/pas2050
  • 29. Social impacts
    • Quality of life for farm workers
    • 100% increase in labour/time required for cultivation and harvest
    • Reduced harvest flexibility
  • 30. Loss of glyphosate would cause....
    • Severe losses to UK agriculture
      • Greatest loss is pre-planting use
        • £150m - £550m/year for wheat (c. £300/ha treated)
        • £225m - £810m/year for all crops
      • Additional losses pre-harvest use
        • £72m - £152m/year in wheat (c. £50/ha treated)
        • > £300m in all crops (c. £100/ha OSR treated)
    • Negative impacts to the environment
      • Crop area increased by 5-20% ( if land available )
      • GHG emissions increased by up to 20%
      • Soil quality, water quality and biodiversity reduced
  • 31. Actions required to retain availability of valuable active substance
    • Need to resolve uncertainty over area treated if greater precision of impact is required
    • Pro-active campaign to:
      • Remind farmers, agronomists and policymakers of benefits
      • Remind policymakers levels are below level of health impact
    • Ensure always used to best practice
      • Protect watercourses
        • Avoid point source contamination and drift
      • Ensure any use is always justified
  • 32. Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture James Clarke [email_address] Sarah Wynn & Sarah Cook Roundup Ready® Maize Symposium The European Perspective 23-24 March 2010, Brussels