The RealReason Behind Home Field Advantage<br />
Game Plan<br />Hidden side of sports<br />Challenge convention, explore new angles<br />Facts about home field advantage<b...
Home Field Advantage<br />No myth!<br />For all sports<br />At all times in history<br />In all geographies<br />Why does ...
Source:  Sports Illustrated, Jan. 17, 2011 “What’s Really Behind Home Field Advantage?” by Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon ...
WHY?<br />
Home Field Advantage<br />Four facts to remember:<br />Exists in every sport<br />Different across sports (soccer vs. base...
Myth #1:  Crowd Support<br />How do you test for crowd effects exclusively?<br />Free throw shooting in the NBA<br />Shoot...
Myth #1:  Crowd Support<br />
Myth #1:  Crowd Support<br />*Control for: type of pitch, inning, pitch count, leverage. . . found no differences<br />
Myth #2:  Travel Fatigue<br />What happens when two teams from the same (or nearby) city play each other?<br />What happen...
Myth #2:  Travel Fatigue<br />Advantage is same as it was 100 years ago<br />In soccer, no difference in advantage for vas...
Myth #3:  Schedule Bias<br />Road teams play tougher schedules than home teams<br />More back-to-back games in NBA and NHL...
Myth #4:  Home Familiarity<br />Are teams built to take advantage of their unique home field characteristics?<br />Doesn’t...
The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />Referee bias toward the home team<br />How do you identify this?<br />Need to examine some...
The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />Referee injury time doubled if home team behind by one goal vs. ahead by one goal.<br />
The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />Strike-ball calls by umpires in MLB<br />Home batter and pitcher favoritism<br />Crucial v...
The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />Over a season visitors get 516 more strike outs and 195 fewer walks on the same pitches<br />
The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />July 3, 2009 Cubs vs. Brewers . . . At Wrigley<br />
The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />NFL:  penalties, yards/penalty, turnovers<br />Instant replay challenge (1999)---lowered H...
The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />
Why Do Referees Favor the Home Team?<br />No conspiracy, but psychology<br />Social influence<br />Humans conform to group...
Behavioral Explanation<br />If true, then effects should be worse<br />The more ambiguous the call<br />The larger and mor...
Attendance Effect<br />
Attendance Effect<br />MLB<br />NBA<br />
Still Not Convinced?<br />Psychology experiment with real soccer referees and video-taped matches<br />German soccer stadi...
What About the Four Facts We Started With?<br />Exists in every sport because referees in every sport are human<br />Diffe...
The Real Reasons Behind the Home Field Advantage
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The Real Reasons Behind the Home Field Advantage

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  • Does not affect NFL or MLB or soccer
  • Home team ahead vs. behindHome team way head or behindChange in point system
  • Home team ahead vs. behindHome team way head or behindChange in point system
  • Coffee store owner and change jar.
  • Coffee store owner and change jar.
  • Feb. 2, 2007 Calcio Catania vs. Palermo Calcio
  • Imagine father who finds his teenage daughter kissing her boyfriend. He’s upset about the kiss, but he’s more upset about what else might be going on when he didn’t happen to look.If we can find some instances where referees exhibit bias, Lord knows what other ways they may be favoring the home team.
  • The Real Reasons Behind the Home Field Advantage

    1. 1. The RealReason Behind Home Field Advantage<br />
    2. 2. Game Plan<br />Hidden side of sports<br />Challenge convention, explore new angles<br />Facts about home field advantage<br />Conventional explanations and why they fail<br />The real reasons behind HFA<br />
    3. 3. Home Field Advantage<br />No myth!<br />For all sports<br />At all times in history<br />In all geographies<br />Why does it exist?<br />Not for the reasons you think.<br />First, the facts . . .<br />
    4. 4. Source: Sports Illustrated, Jan. 17, 2011 “What’s Really Behind Home Field Advantage?” by Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim<br />
    5. 5. WHY?<br />
    6. 6. Home Field Advantage<br />Four facts to remember:<br />Exists in every sport<br />Different across sports (soccer vs. baseball)<br />Same for a given sport no matter where played<br />Stable over time (same as 100 years ago)<br />
    7. 7. Myth #1: Crowd Support<br />How do you test for crowd effects exclusively?<br />Free throw shooting in the NBA<br />Shootouts in the NHL<br />Pitchers and batters in MLB<br />Punters/kickers in the NFL<br />QB’s and crowd noise in the NFL<br />If not much effect in these situations, how much impact could it have generally?<br />
    8. 8. Myth #1: Crowd Support<br />
    9. 9. Myth #1: Crowd Support<br />*Control for: type of pitch, inning, pitch count, leverage. . . found no differences<br />
    10. 10. Myth #2: Travel Fatigue<br />What happens when two teams from the same (or nearby) city play each other?<br />What happens when two teams from vast distances play each other?<br />U.S. vs. Canada<br />
    11. 11. Myth #2: Travel Fatigue<br />Advantage is same as it was 100 years ago<br />In soccer, no difference in advantage for vast vs. miniscule countries<br />Netherlands, Costa Rica, El Salvador same as in U.S., Brazil, Australia<br />
    12. 12. Myth #3: Schedule Bias<br />Road teams play tougher schedules than home teams<br />More back-to-back games in NBA and NHL<br />College sports exhibit the biggest effect<br />Adjusting for scheduling, NCAA basketball and football look the same as NBA and NFL<br />Does not affect NFL or MLB or soccer<br />
    13. 13. Myth #4: Home Familiarity<br />Are teams built to take advantage of their unique home field characteristics?<br />Doesn’t seem to matter much<br />Cold vs. tropical weather teams in the NFL<br />“Hitter” and “Pitcher” ballparks in MLB<br />NBA and NHL?<br />MLB has largest home field differences, yet lowest home field advantage<br />
    14. 14. The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />Referee bias toward the home team<br />How do you identify this?<br />Need to examine something controlled by referees but not influenced by players<br />Extra “injury” time in soccer<br />Also, red and yellow cards, fouls, free kicks<br />
    15. 15. The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />Referee injury time doubled if home team behind by one goal vs. ahead by one goal.<br />
    16. 16. The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />Strike-ball calls by umpires in MLB<br />Home batter and pitcher favoritism<br />Crucial vs. inconsequential situations<br />Umpire monitoring technology (QuesTec)<br />
    17. 17. The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />Over a season visitors get 516 more strike outs and 195 fewer walks on the same pitches<br />
    18. 18. The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />July 3, 2009 Cubs vs. Brewers . . . At Wrigley<br />
    19. 19. The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />NFL: penalties, yards/penalty, turnovers<br />Instant replay challenge (1999)---lowered HFA 30%<br />Visitors get more bad (overturned) calls<br />NBA: fouls, turnovers, violations<br />Subjective calls: travelling, offensive fouls<br />Objective calls: shot-clock violations<br />NHL: same pattern<br />Remember shootout results?<br />
    20. 20. The Real Reason Behind HFA<br />
    21. 21. Why Do Referees Favor the Home Team?<br />No conspiracy, but psychology<br />Social influence<br />Humans conform to group opinion because:<br />Social pressure<br />Seeking information from the crowd<br />Referees see things the way the crowd does<br />Uncertain calls from information<br />
    22. 22. Behavioral Explanation<br />If true, then effects should be worse<br />The more ambiguous the call<br />The larger and more vocal the crowd<br />Both are true<br />HFA in every sport grows with attendance<br />*(controlling for team quality)<br />
    23. 23. Attendance Effect<br />
    24. 24. Attendance Effect<br />MLB<br />NBA<br />
    25. 25. Still Not Convinced?<br />Psychology experiment with real soccer referees and video-taped matches<br />German soccer stadiums with a track<br />Italian soccer “experiment” with NO fans<br />
    26. 26. What About the Four Facts We Started With?<br />Exists in every sport because referees in every sport are human<br />Different across sports because referees have bigger impact in some sports than others<br />Same for a given sport no matter where played because ref has same role<br />Hasn’t changed over time because role of referee has been pretty constant<br />

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