Importance of coalitions
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Importance of coalitions

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Slides I used for a lecture where I analyzed the 2004 General Elections. The intention of the lecture was to illustrate the importance of coalitions.

Slides I used for a lecture where I analyzed the 2004 General Elections. The intention of the lecture was to illustrate the importance of coalitions.

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Importance of coalitions Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Importance of Coalitions Analyzing the 2004 Elections Karthik Shashidhar
  • 2. WHY DID THE NDA LOSE 2004?
  • 3. BJP and Congress - Votes
  • 4. BJP and Congress – vote shares
  • 5. BJP and Congress: Contests
  • 6. BJP and congress: Effective vote shares
  • 7. Total vote share of Congress and BJP
  • 8. Coalitions: 1998 vs 1999 State Party1 Party2 Seat Split 1998 Seat Split Coalition Seats 1999 Coalition Seats 1998 Andhra Pradesh BJP TDP 8-34 38-35 36 16 Bihar BJP JDU 29-23 32-35-21 41 31 Bihar Congress RJD 16-36 21-38 11 22 Karnataka BJP JDU 19-9 18-10 10 16 Maharashtra BJP Shivsena 26-22 25-22 28 10 Orissa BJP BJD 9-12 9-12 19 16 Punjab BJP SAD 3-9 4-8 3 11 Tamil Nadu BJP DMK/PM K/MDMK 6-19-7-5 5-17-5-5 25 15 Tamil Nadu Congress AIADMK 11-14 35-22 12 18 West Bengal BJP Trinamool 13-28 14-29 10 8 Total (BJP+) 172 136 Total (Cong+) 23 24
  • 9. What happened in 2004? • BJP ditched DMK in Tamil Nadu and switched to AIADMK – Assuming the usual Tamil inversion would help • Simultaneous assembly and parliamentary elections in Andhra Pradesh – TDP faced a two-term anti-incumbency • Congress tied up with RJD and LJP in Bihar. Addition of LJP helped coalition sweep
  • 10. What happened in 2004? (2/2) • Congress tied up with JMM in new Jharkhand • Congress-NCP alliance for the first time in Maharashtra • Breakdown of BJP in Uttar Pradesh – exit of Kalyan Singh, etc. – Strengthening of BSP in Uttar Pradesh • Breakdown of NDA in West Bengal
  • 11. Final seat tally BJP 182 BJP 182 INC 144 INC 206 INC 141 INC 114 BJP 138 BJP 116 CPI M 32 CPI M 33 CPI M 43 SP 23 SP 20 TDP 29 SP 36 BSP 21 AIADMK 18 SP 26 RJD 24 JDU 20 RJD 17 JDU 21 BSP 19 AITC 19 SAP 12 SHS 15 DMK 16 DMK 18 TDP 12 BSP 14 SHS 12 CPI M 16 BJD 9 DMK 12 BJD 11 BJD 14 CPI 9 AIADMK 10 CPI 10 SHS 11 SAD 8 BJD 10 NCP 9 AIADMK 9 WBTC 7 AITC 8 JDU 8 IND 9 DMK 6 NCP 8 SAD 8 NCP 9 IND 6 RJD 7 PMK 6 TDP 6 JD 6 IND 6 IND 5 RLD 5 SHS 6 INLD 5 JMM 5 CPI 4 BSP 5 PMK 5 TDP 5 RJD 4 RSP 5 CPI 4 TRS 5 SAD 4 HLDR 4 JKN 4 LJNSP 4 JDS 3 PMK 4 MDMK 4 MDMK 4 JKN 3 1998 1999 2004 2009
  • 12. Final Seat Tally - 2 1998 1999 2004 2009 BJP+ 258 294 170 152 Congress+ 141 122 225 262 Others 144 127 148 129
  • 13. Why did NDA lose 2004? • Congress, which was averse to alliances in 1999, formed some for 2004 • Consolidation of pro-Congress votes in 2004 hurt BJP badly • The effect of “India Shining” was marginal
  • 14. Number of contests State Election Year 1998 1999 2004 2009 Andhra Pradesh 3 2 2 3 Assam 3 3 3 3 Bihar 3 2 3 4 Gujarat 3 2 2 2 Haryana 3 2 4 3 Karnataka 3 3 3 3 Kerala 2 2 3 2 Madhya Pradesh 2 2 3 2 Maharashtra 2 3 2 3 Orissa 2 2 2 3 Punjab 2 2 3 2 Rajasthan 2 2 2 2 Tamil Nadu 2 2 2 3 Uttar Pradesh 3 4 4 4 West Bengal 3 3 2 2
  • 15. Votes and seats share