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Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows
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Skolkovo open lecture by Dennis Meadows

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Here's a presentation by Dennis Meadows created for his open lecture at SKOLKOVO business school on April 14, 2012. …

Here's a presentation by Dennis Meadows created for his open lecture at SKOLKOVO business school on April 14, 2012.

Dennis Meadows is Honorary Professor of Management Systems, Honorary Doctor of 4 universities around the world, laureate of international awards, co-author of the bestseller "The Limits to Growth".

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  • 1. Professor Dennis Meadows“New Business Opportunities for a Limited World. Next 50 Years” for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 2. Outline of SpeechMain conclusions from the Club of RomeStudyWhat I will include and excludeThe two foreseeable limits affecting Russianbusiness – energy scarcity and climatechangeWhat do “limits” mean?Creating new businesses for a limited world Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 2 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 3. Exercise on Habits
  • 4. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 4 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 5. Our Main ConclusionsA computer model cannot prove there arephysical limits to physical growth on aphysically finite planet.We showed that population and industrialgrowth are inherently exponential; and thatexponential growth will take global societyto any existing limit quickly, where ever thatlimit is. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 5 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 6. We are following the collapse scenarioFrom: Growing within Limits, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, October 2009, page 23. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 6 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 7. The Time of Greatest StressMost people assume that the major globaldifficulties would occur after the end to growth.This is not correct.The globe’s population would experience the moststress prior to the peak, as pressures mount highenough to neutralize the enormous political,demographic, and economic forces that nowsustain growth.We are in the early phases of that period now; youwill experience more change over the next 20years than occurred during the past 100 years. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 7 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 8. Issues Included & ExcludedI include two main continuous trends– Global oil production is falling -> energy limits– Global climate is changing -> water and food limitsI exclude many possible discontinuous trends– Volcanoes could limit food production– Solar flares could damage the electricity and electronics sectors– Epidemics could limit transportation Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 8 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 9. Global Oil Production is Falling
  • 10. Global Primary Energy Consumption by Source in 2010A Comparison to Total Non-Hydro Renewable* Energy Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 10 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 11. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 11 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 12. The Easy Oil is GoneOil discoveries peaked in 1960s.Every year since 1984 oil consumption hasexceeded oil discovery.In 2009 discoveries were about 5 billionbarrels (bb); consumption was about 31 bb.Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 werediscovered 1917 - 1968; 2 in the 1970s; 0since. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 12 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 13. Global Oil ProductionM 90 Series 1illi 85on 80Bar 75re ls 70/Da 65y Year 2009 1995 Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 13 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 14. Global Oil Production is Nearing the End of its Plateau 1995 - 1999 + 5.5% 2000 - 2004 + 7.9 % 2005 - 2009 + 0.4 %- data from the International Statistical Supplement – 2010 edition, International Energy Agency, p. 18 2010 - 2030 – 50%** Projection from Crude Oil – The Supply Outlook, Energy Watch Group, Feb 2008, p. 12. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 14 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 15. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 15 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 16. Awareness is Growing that the Oil Peak Has Passed“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity couldentirely disappear, and as early as 2015, theshortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD” - U S Joint Forces Command, Joint OperatingEnvironment Report, February, 2010 “Peak Oil Production May Already be Here” - Science, p. 1510, Vol 331, March 25, 2011 Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 16 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 17. Oil Price Signals the Decline Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 17 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 18. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 18 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 19. Global Climate is Changing
  • 20. CO2 Concentration Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 20 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 21. The Globe is Becoming WarmerSince the 1970s, each subsequent decade has gotten hotter – and 9of the 10 hottest years on record occurred since 2000. The head ofthe state weather service, Alexander Frolov, said that the heatwaveof 2010 was the worst in 1,000 years of recorded Russian history Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 21 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 22. Precipitation is Becoming More ExtremeWorldwide, 2010 and 2011 were the wettestyears over land in recorded history.In the United States 7 states had theirwettest year in history in 2011; severalothers had their driest year in recordedhistory.Artic ice fell to its lowest volume in historyin 2011. Western El Salvador, received nearly 1.5meters of rain in 10 days. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 22 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 23. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 23 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 24. Climate Change is:Rising temperature -> lower crop yieldsChanges in precipitation -> lower crop yieldsShifting cultivation zonesGrowing acidity in the oceanGreater instability in windsMigration of ecological zones, pests, diseasesRising sea levelThus, massive changes in human settlements, inmigration, in political systems, and in patterns ofagricultural and industrial production Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 24 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 25. Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 25 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 26. Water Stress. The World Today Severe water stressDennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 26 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 27. Current Water Withdrawals [1,000 km³/a] World OECD Sub-Saharan Africa 8 1,4 0,4 4 0,7 0,2AgricultureIndustryDomestic 0 0,0 0,0 Global withdrawals Source: Millennium  3800 km3 /a Ecosystem Assessment Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 27 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 28. The Effect of Limits
  • 29. + Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 29 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 30. Capital Cost of Production & UseCapital Required for Production & Use 0 1 Fraction of Resource Remaining Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 30 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 31. Capital Investments for US Energy150 oil refineries4000 offshore platforms160,000 miles of oil pipelines10,400 electricity generating plants410 underground gas storage fields1.4 million miles of gas pipelines160,000 miles of high voltage powerlinesPort facilities to handle 15 millionbarrels/day of oil Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 31 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 32. _ Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 32 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 33. Four Factors Determine the Amount of Oil Consumption© Dennis Meadows Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 33 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 34. Four Factors Determine the Amount of CO2 Emissions Number Units of Energy Fraction of CO2 of x Capital x Required per x Energy from Emissions People Per Person Capital Unit Fossil Fuels Efficiency Solar Energy Cultural Demography Technology Norms© Dennis Meadows (2007) Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 34 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 35. Renewable Costs are Declining Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 35 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 36. New Business OpportunitiesAdapting to energy scarcity– Less transportation, especially air transport– Lower discretionary income for luxuries– New markets for non-fossil energy– Higher demand for energy-efficient methods for producing food, materials, and goodsAdapting to climate change– Reducing greenhouse gas emissions– Increasing the resilience of food production– Developing water conservation methods Dennis Meadows for Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 36 Open Lecture 14 April 2012
  • 37. Stay in touch with theSKOLKOVO business schoolWebsite: www.skolkovo.ruFacebook: www.facebook.com/skolkovoTwitter: @skolkovo

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