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My latest slide deck on the future of banking.

My latest slide deck on the future of banking.

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    Latest Presentation on Future Banks Latest Presentation on Future Banks Presentation Transcript

    • Chris Skinner @FSClub  and  @Chris_Skinner   www.thefinanser.com   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • www.thefinanser.com©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Don’tTELL Mum I work for a BANK ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • credit subprimeproperty liquidityeurope facebooknokia iphone ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • subprime creditliquidity propertyfacebook europeiphone nokia ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©Chris  Skinner    +44  790  586  2270  chris.skinner@fsclub.co.uk  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Ø  traders  believed  credit  risk  was  managed   and  covered,  when  it  wasn’t  Ø  separated  real  world  from  simulated  models  Ø  No-­‐one  had  considered  ‘liquidity  risk’  Ø  systems  leveraged  the  formula  to  death   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Reports  •  Macro-­‐economic  risk   •  Dodd-­‐Frank   •  Basel  III  •  Credit  risk   •  Volcker   •  CRD  •  Liquidity   •  Durbin   •  MiFID  II  •  Capital  availability   •  Vickers   •  PSD  II  •  PoliTcal  interference   •  Barnier   •  SEPA  end-­‐dates  •  RegulaTon   •  Lagarde   •  Solvency  II  •  Profitability   •  Geithner   •  UCITS  IV  •  DerivaTves   •  Bernanke   •  EMIR  •  Corporate  governance     •  King   •  T2S  •  Quality  of  risk  management   •  Dragi   •  Bribery  Act  …   …   …     ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • http://bit.ly/HgSjOZ
    • Dodd-Frank has 400 rules 286 have deadlinesRegulators missed 1 in 4 Volcker rule delayed ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Then  …   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • www.thefinanser.com  ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • May  2012  •  Facebook  is  the  worlds  largest  social  network    •  Every  other  person  on  the  internet  are  users    •  That’s  over  900  million  monthly  acTve  users   (up  from  680  million  a  year  ago)  and  526   million  daily  acTve  users  (up  from  372  million   last  year)  •  Monthly  mobile  users  now  total  488  million  •  300  million  photos  are  uploaded  to  the  site   each  day  •  3.2  billion  Likes  and  Comments  daily  •  125  billion  friendships  are  forged  per  day  •  Revenue  for  the  first  quarter  of  2012  was   $1.058  billion,  up  from  $731  last  year   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • •  850 million users •  150 million users•  166,890,779 user visits, February •  26,186,877 user visits, February 2012 2012•  500 million registered / 200 million •  One hour of video is loaded every active users second•  37,201,228 user visits, February •  147,739,093 user visits, February 2012 2012•  90 million users •  51 million users•  18,915,810 user visits, February •  18,255,322 user visits, February 2012 2012 ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Mohammed Bouazizi©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Molly Katchpole©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Mark  Zuckerberg  (facebook)   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Mark  Zuckerberg  (facebook)   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Julian  Assange  (wikileaks)     ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Aaron  Barr  (HB  Gary)   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • The times, they are changing1962   1972   1982   2012  1992   2002  
    • The times, they are changing1962   1972   1982  1992   2002   2012  
    • Tim Berners-Lee (www) ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • 2002:  Bought  by  eBay  for  $1.5  billion,  with  revenues  at  $200  million    2005:  Revenues  reach  $1  billion  2009:  transacTons  exceed  $20  billion  per  quarter  for  the  first  Tme,  and  revenues  now  $2.8  billion  2010:  >$75  billion  transacTons,  >$3  billion  revenues,  $1  billion  profit    Q4  2011  •  106  million  acTve  registered  accounts    •  190  markets  •  $4.4  billion  annual    revenue    •  $118  billion  transacTons,  of  which  $4  billion  was  on  mobile   (2009:  $140  million)   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Martin Cooper (mobile) ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Ø  According  to  a  2012  survey  by  the   Gates  FoundaTon,  the  World  Bank   and  Gallup,  more  than  10%  of   adults  said  they  had  used  mobile   money  in  the  last  year;  of  the  20   countries  surveyed,  15  were  in   Africa   Ø  Somalia  lacks  a  funcToning   government  but  34%  of  adults  use   mobile  money  (onen  to  receive   remioances  from  family  members   abroad)   Ø  In  Kenya,  68%  of  adults  use   mobile  money  and  half  have   paper-­‐based  bank  accounts  Source:  the  Economist,  April  2012   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • •  20%  of  Kenyas  GDP     •  At  peak,  200  tx/second   •  KES15  billion  ($180  million)  is  stored   in  M-­‐PESA  at  any  Tme   •  Fraud  is  1/20th  of  Banking   •  17%  of  Safaricoms  revenue  –  more   than  text  and  data  combined   •  When  launched,  2.5  million  bank   account  holders  in  Kenya;  five  years   later  there  are  over  9  million   •  Safaricom  does  not  earn  interest  on   the  money  stored,  but  gives  interest   to  a  charitable  foundaTon  ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Jack Dorsey (twitter & square)©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Within  a  year  of  launch,  Square  was  processing  over:  •  $2  million  a  day  in  April  2011,  rising  to  over    •  $3  million  a  day  by  May  2011  •  $4  million  a  day  by  July  2011;  and    •  $11  million  a  day  by  November  2011.  In  October  2011  they  had  750,000  merchants  rising  to  over  a  million  by  December  –  there  are  only  eight  million  card-­‐accepTng  merchants  in  the  USA  in  total.        By  March  2012,  Square  was  processing  $4  billion  a  year  in  payment  volumes,  double  the  amount  announced  in  October  2011.   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • March 2012 April 2012 June 2012 ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Mark Pincus (zynga) ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Satoshi  Nakamoto   (bitcoin)  ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Data  is  the  greatest  raw  material  of  business,  on  a  par  with  capital  and  labour.    “What  we  are  seeing  is  the  ability  to  have  economies  form  around  the  data  and  that,  to  me,  is  the  big  change  at  a  societal  and  even  macroeconomic  level.”    Craig  Mundie  Head  of  Research  and  Strategy    Microson   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • GLoSoMo  •  Global  •  Social    •  Mobile  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • American  Express’s  Facebook  page  has  around  13,500  crowd  sourced  stories  at  any  moment  in  Tme  (this  is  the  number  of  ac;ons  such  as  likes,  comments  and  shares  by  AMEX’s  fans).    MulTply  this  by  the  number  of  friends  each  of  these  stories  reach  (the  average  user  has  234  friends)  then  the  “poten;al”  reach  is  over  three  million  people  all  the  Tme.     ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Personal  Financial  Management  (PFM)  •  Over  25%  of  online  users  signed  up  for  stand-­‐alone  PFM  within  6  months    •  Over  75%  of  new  PFM  users  use  PFM  again  within  two  weeks  •  Over  25%  of  new  PFM  users  use  PFM  five  Cmes  or  more  in  the  first  month,  and   spend  more  than  double  the  Cme  in  PFM  compared  to  general  online  banking  •  The  average  Cme  onsite  is  12  minutes,  with  35  pageviews  per  PFM  session  •  More  than  half  of  all  PFM  users  are  sCll  acCve  a  year  aJer  signing-­‐up  •  Over  80%  of  users  are  “pleased”  or  “highly  pleased”  with  PFM  •  9  out  of  10  users  say  they’d  recommend  PFM  to  others  •  66%  say  PFM  has  helped  them  see  how  they  can  improve  financially  •  41%  say  they  have  improved  financial  behaviour  aJer  starCng  to  use  PFM   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Body  monitor  ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Financial  Data  Wars  “Banking  is  just  bits  and  bytes.”  John  Reed,  CEO/Chair,  1984-­‐98  “What  we  are  seeing  is  the  ability  to  have  economies  form  around  the  data  and  that,  to  me,  is  the  big  change  at  a  societal  and  even  macroeconomic  level.”  Craig  Mundie,  Head  of  Research  and  Strategy,  Microson    “I  look  at  Wall  Street  as  broken,  from  the  point  of  view  of  Silicon  Valley”  Roger  McNamee,  founder  of  ElevaTon  Partners,  the  $1.9  billion  fund     ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Financial Digital Actual = CREDBehaviour Behaviour Behaviour Ability to be a Ability to Ability to be Movenbank = CRED manage trusted advocate money PFM, DDA, LinkedIn, eBay, Loans, Facebook, Movenbank = CRED Savings, Twitter, Prosper gamificationInvestments … … = CRED
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Fingered  http://www.ushuaiabeachhotel.com/en/pioneers/©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Opus  Research  predicts  that  the  global  number  of  registered  voiceprints  will  increase  from  10  million  today  to  over  25  million  in  2015,  and  much  of  this  will  be  driven  by  the  payments  markets.   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ING  Café    ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • “We  don’t  hire  bankers,  because  bankers  come  in  with  their  DNA  and  they  have  their  legacy  which  won’t  fit.  Instead  we  hire  dancers,  musicians  and  arCsts.    People  who  can  deliver  a  great  and  different  experience.”  Arkani  Kuhlmann,  President  and  CEO,  ING  Direct  USA  BAI  Retail  Delivery  2008   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Umpqua  Bank  In 2003, Umpqua began opening banking centers whose designs employ a truly retail approach, including wall and floor visual merchandising. ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    •   “…execu;ves  cross  the  Atlan;c   on  a  Virgin  plane,  listen  to  Virgin   records  and  keep  their  money   with  a  Virgin  bank  ….”   -­‐-­‐  Richard  Branson,          ‘The  Economist  World  in  1997’  ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • The  Top  5  Banks  in  the  World  2010   1999  1  Bank  of  America       1  CiTgroup  2  JP  Morgan  Chase       2  Bank  of  America    3  CiTgroup   3  HSBC    4  Royal  Bank  of  Scotland   4  Crédit  Agricole    5  HSBC   5  Chase  Manhaoan     Source:  The  Banker   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • BBC,  January  2012   Guardian,  July  2010  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©Chris  Skinner    +44  790  586  2270  chris.skinner@fsclub.co.uk  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Read  the  Case  Study  
    • Read  the  Case  Study  
    • Read  the  Case  Study  
    • Read  the  Case  Study  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Read  the  Case  Study  
    • Read  the  Case  Study  
    • Fidor Bank thinks different! Fidor Bank = GLOBAL PEER TO PEER BANKING. §  Crowdsourcing, e. g. with a user-community, that allows peer-to-peer support, sharing of experiences and cooperation in order to solve financial questions; §  Crowdfunding, e. g. by getting paid by the bank for specific social interactions within Fidor Bank Community; §  User co-designed Products and user driven Prices, e. g. Product suggestions within the community, „Zins-Consenus-Group“ within Fidor Bank Community, „Like-Zins“, an interest rate that is directly connected to the amount of Likes on Fidor Bank´s Facebook profile. §  Crowdfunding, via third party platforms such as startnext and others; §  Peer to peer lending within FidorPay Account; §  A global payment offer, that will allow „account to account“ payments or „account to cash pick up“.
    • Fidor Bank´s Customer „phase in“ allows efficient marketing spendings. 2011: proof of concept €100,000 Communication Spendings since Kick off 75,000 top Line User registrations year end 2011 €1.33 Cost per Registration 6,000 full KYC Customers in avg 2011 €16.7 Cost per Full KYC Customer in avg 2011 €14.83 net income/full KYC user in 2011
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • The  Bank  of  2020  Social  Mobile  Micro  Mining  Biometric  STll  a  bank   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Banking is just data“Informa;on  about  money  has  become  almost  as  important  as  money  itself  .”  Walter  Wriston,  CEO/Chair,  1967-­‐1984     “Banking  is  just  bits  and  bytes.”   John  Reed,  CEO/Chair,  1984-­‐1998    
    • •  It  took  radio  38  years  to   reach  50  million   listeners.  •  Television  took  13  years   to  reach  50  million  users.  •  The  internet  took  4   years  to  reach  50   million  people.  •  The  iPad  reached   50  million  users   in  just  18   months.   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • www.thefinanser.com©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.  
    • Chris Skinner @FSClub  and  @Chris_Skinner   www.thefinanser.com   ©    Chris  Skinner.    All  rights  reserved.