OPEN Silcon Valley - Clean-tech is Main-tech:  How do you fit in the Green Economy - March 2009
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  • This is Saul's presentation from OPEN Silicon Valley Spring Panel: Clean-tech is Main-tech : How do you fit in the Green Economy? on March 12:

    http://www.opensiliconvalley.org/index.php?option=com_con...

    Also check out:
    http://www.wattzon.com

    and:

    http://fora.tv/2009/01/16/Saul_Griffith_Climate_Change_Recalculated
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OPEN Silcon Valley - Clean-tech is Main-tech: How do you fit in the Green Economy - March 2009 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Open Silicon Valley : March 2009 is cleantech maintech? Saul Griffith. Makanipower.com
  • 2. 3.5 Sep.11.2001. 3 Recession. 2.5 Oil Crises. 2 1.5 Depression. 1 0.5 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 quot;The Game Planquot; slideset release 1.01, March 21 2008 67
  • 3. Two stories : one global, one personal.
  • 4. HOW MUCH POWER DO I USE?
  • 5. SFO TO LHR 41 W W W 60 LHR- 3 W 4 SF 30 TS 29 SFO ER ATL HE 3 O-A H TH DS LIG ED SFO L-A -ATL O -SF A TL T NT O RO EE 1 W 4 W M -CP A OU S- 410 W O1 K- R ST ASA CE 4 W 160 AT O 0W H5 CC G I 60 L- N G ST GY SF -H W N-A W 10 JU ER 4 W W O W 3 O N R 3 W EN HE 1 W NO -O 57 S A S IR W OT S LE FA 0 SF K W 5 W 56 2 C F BO O- BO 0 HH A HI S-A ICE W S VE N RV S- S G V. A W SF 21 O ER -SE 0 OA OA K O 21 0 W G E T A L 10 E K-O DC -DC 0 W 8W V ST NS RD -O AK 80 1 S PO FE -M OD 40 W QU ON -QU 18 W 0W EG O N3 DE E-D TW E2 10 HIT ATIO 0 W W UC -SF 6 O2 W ED ANCE BUR-O SFO 10 W FIN -JFK W AK 20 W OAK-BUR 200 680 20 W JFK-SFO ARE W LTHC 200 W HEA SFO-BO W BOS-ORD S 210 W TION 110 70 W RECREA ORD-SFO 14 0W HOUSE 260 W SFO-JFK 200 W JFK-SFO 200 W 230 W MISCSTU SJC-SJO FF1000 W 0W JC 23 SJO-S W 280 BOO -VIJ KS SJC W WA 130 W 80 BIK STE C2 DIS -SJ NE ES P WS 6 WW OSA XTILE TE VIJ EL 18 ATE L 9 W S 90 EC 0W R1 TRA W TR 60 NSP W ON W OR 0 IC 1 14 CO S2 TTO ME M S YD PU 50 W 40 W O- TE SF RS BO W 70 0 AT 0 CA 31 W W S RS R 0 50 0W WO -D 31 56 0W W O WO ERTI 28 FO SF RK 0W AG IN 0 HILU 150 W 28 -S TE 0W W RK K HE W 0W .F OA SHOWERS GAS 70 W 0W COOKING GAS 30 W DR 31 RN EL AT FO 100 X 16 ET O- MA 24 HT EC 20 TAXIORRENTAL 47 K-S W SF 70 SIG LIZ TER 0W TR YV Saul, 2007 = OA W IC MY 2007 LIFE: ER A IN UGG A TACO PRIN 41 OTA 50 ND 0W EB GE S W TOY 17027 Watts HO 18000 Watts DUN TOYOT AG AG PEST 0 W 0 W DOD . FO CTR ES AG .E CO . BE SS LE FF SU ER CE ILF OTHER EE LIGHTS GA STERE FR LAPTOP COMPU &W ICI RE FRIDGE DA UE 0 W HEATIN IC R UIT 50 W S 3 2 FA D AL IRY LS ME INE 20 4 TS ,V S& ELEC 8 O ELEC AT 80 ELEC 7 W EG AN GGS 10 6 TER EL ELEC 1 G GAS 4 GR TS 9 ELEC 3 &E W DO &N W AIN U IL 0W W S 1W EC 10 16 0W 10 00 W W 0W 0W 0W W W
  • 6. sight u p gy In ick g bu ne ap Honda du ot en toy ag sw lk er H d dd trip er vo or la ee e rs ov y nc ep astr tre we ec la r hislk ke io st s po honpatuolletlbow ot w p AS ns m istm tma te inu r ex m alch hrisrry g alu tur ialc ca eba e na tific as nc ar uitc fere lla st ne s n re e co mb lChpho boo chrina u oo sk m apee p ru s fr r llp ers intr snwuga ce bb pa ndgklmkrkr insappk w tah r utc bcpeg sp wokeoc c K csitb in eu y auloterin oooeceif prcnb laetan Fbp laso sla s taaicten c n ps hcak einteeoe n Wmoleonn e e e cttn aic id in decueit a hste oixaoks c oo mduhuttpp r itc s ma ll ed tele tao ecttin sb nrep tellifkg eslasg n tus hare lagoteolo e l s ed vinlefoe pprkleteu k bo Glaspe sagbnkan o ottole dnmn p scrarroivif o Pta eprgan nlsffmen bb eek ed TR T de ba somp es es pr coo c plantp pla ots rge ofab ing ntpotla s irdin ble tin din gk a ta ch ing itc he n sit g fallow oorru h nc So pi nfl f be l e ole he ram wo oksfutonf ame Boodenlfutonfr ss ttre nma wo eta m futo ChairWood) ( er it beltleath crocsshoes Table oolSu MenW opants menso t cks carg lared r tst- shirat t enscol rwea shor s woolh ebrimha de men ck shir tm enunhoes so wid Shoes m rs oots leathe Hat et uggb s pant Woolen jack ralls coat oach rallsove xedpaper Watch-C il clingwrapsaran wa cove fo erroll toiletpap aluminum de r washingpow detergent teacandle Book conditionerthpaste sheetsofpaper too framed art Papercup l) ase hampoo (mhbrush CDjewelcame ardg Toot lfball bo tennisb all golftee go rd tennisrac ket surfb cycle oa r moto ag ngerb esse le lephantet BikemGolfClubinflaotabrcyeclehelm s s per m to Pa ws Ne ne s i an az e ag in ar az m ag ly m ee r th m cr te n ns pu on ta r ly ec om Dr Oveerahine p yen tor pr p C tio te m Ca M o e kto oj ar ig ac on es t qu Ph D h ap les r PHYSICAL STUFF ile R ng L efr ob yc M i as Bic House W ~2500 Watts
  • 7. Per capita power use 2003 Per Capita Energy Use 2003 30 16 Belgium 17 Saudi Arabia 18 Singapore 19 Gibraltar 20 Netherlands 21 Oman 1 Qatar 22 France 23 Russian Federation 25 2 Iceland 24 New Zealand 3 United Arab Emirates 25 Korea, Rep 26 Czech Rep 4 Bahrain 27 Germany 28 Austria 5 Luxembourg 29 Japan 6 Netherlands Antilles 30 United Kingdom 31 Denmark 7 Kuwait 32 Ireland 20 8 Trinidad and Tobago 33 Switzerland 34 Estonia 9 Canada 35 Turkmenistan 36 Slovenia 10 United States 37 Slovakia 11 Brunei Darussalam 38 Kazakhstan 39 Cyprus kilowatts 12 Finland 40 Spain 41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 13 Norway 15 42 Israel 14 Sweden 43 Italy 44 Ukraine 15 Australia 45 Greece 46 Belarus 47 Lithuania 48 South Africa 49 Hungary 50 Bulgaria US Average. 10 5 Global Average 0 10 20 30 40 50
  • 8. If the average American were to leave home each morning with a backpack full of the fuel they need- ed for their day: Oil = 10 kg = 23 lb. Coal = 10 kg = 23 lb. Gas = 200 cubic feet.
  • 9. Energy (TW) 0 1 2 3 4 5 Ele ctr ici ty Ge n Tra n sp ort ati on Ind us try Co ok ing Air He a tin Ind g us tri Ag al St ri ea cu ltu m re & Fo re str y Wa te rH ea tin g Oil Lig Bio ht Coal Tidal Wind Solar Hydro Dis Nuclear tri bu tio n Geothermal Natural Gas Mi nin g 2007 Energy Consumption - Primary use by fuel type
  • 10. Which has led to this problem : 380 370 360 CO Level (ppm) CO concentration (ppm) 350 340 Mauna Loa Direct Measurement Hawaii 330 320 Ice Core 20 year Average Law Dome Antarctica 310 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 year Year
  • 11. Cumulative National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cumulative national CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning, ce- ment manufacture, andand Gas Flaring: 1751-2004 Cement Manufacture, gas flaring: 1751-2004 90 80 1 UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA 16 AUSTRALIA 17 CZECHOSLOVAKIA 2 USSR 18 BELGIUM 3 CHINA_MAINLAND 19 SPAIN 4 GERMANY_COMBINE 20 BRAZIL 5 JAPAN_COMBINE 21 REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA 70 6 UNITED_KINGDOM 22 NETHERLANDS 23 ISLAMIC_REPUBLIC_OF_IRAN giga metric tons of carbon 7 YUGOSLAVIA_COMBINE 24 SAUDI_ARABIA 8 FRANCE_INCLUDING_MONACO 25 INDONESIA 26 ROMANIA 9 INDIA 27 DEMOCRATIC_PEOPLES_REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA 60 10 CANADA 28 ARGENTINA 11 POLAND 29 VENEZUELA 12 RUSSIAN_FEDERATION 30 TURKEY 31 UKRAINE 13 ITALY_INCLUDING_SAN_MARINO 32 TAIWAN 14 SOUTH_AFRICA 33 AUSTRIA 50 15 MEXICO 34 SWEDEN 35 HUNGARY 36 THAILAND 37 DENMARK 38 ALGERIA 39 BULGARIA 40 40 EGYPT 41 GREECE 42 SWITZERLAND 43 NIGERIA 44 MALAYSIA 45 FINLAND 30 46 UNITED_ARAB_EMIRATES 47 KAZAKHSTAN 48 IRAQ 49 COLOMBIA 50 PAKISTAN 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
  • 12. Out of equilibrium Atmosphere Atmosphere ~700 GtC to Ocean +2 / yr 2 GtC/year Soils Carbon to 3000 GtC Atmosphere 8 GtC/year Oceans 40000 GtC Accessible Fossil Fuels 1600 GtC Vegetation 700 GtC
  • 13. Temperature Changes around the world in the last quarter of the 20th century Trends in °C per decade -1 - 0.8 - 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0 + 0.2 + 0.4 + 0.6 + 0.8 +1 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 +1
  • 14. What temperature do we choose? ? ? ? ? ?
  • 15. Choose your target 1000 ppm 750 ppm 6.0 650 5.5 ppm 5.0 Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius 4.5 550 Entire cities and countries lost to sea level Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius. ppm 4.0 500 ppm 3.5 20-50% Species Lost 3.0 450 1-4 Billion people face water shortages ppm 2.5 400 15-40% Species Lost ppm 2.0 2.0 1.5 10% Species Lost 1.0 0.5 Scenarios A1B 0.0 A1T A1FI -0.5 A2 B1 -1.0 B2 IS92a 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
  • 16. What temperature did I choose? 650 550 450ppm +2oC (year2000) 368 Preindustrial 280
  • 17. Effect on CO2 PPM 1 Billion Tons Carbon +0.26 Terawatt Years (COAL) +0.198 Terawatt Years (OIL) +0.155 Terawatt Years (GAS) +0.112 60 PPM to go (to 450)... around 400 TW years of fossil fuel burning... 40 years at 10TW, 20 years at 20TW ...
  • 18. The simplest climate model: CO2ppmfuture = CO2ppmcurrent + 0.55 * (0.36*TWyrcoal + 0.28*TWyroil + 0.204*TWyrgas) + GTCdeforestation
  • 19. Energy production Humanity Units shown in Terawatts (TW) 18 TW Gas: 3.2 Coal: 3.6 Nuclear: 1 Hydro: 0.36 Wind: 0.06 Solar: 0.016 Geothermal: 0.03 Tidal: 0.0005 Plants: 5.2 Oil:5
  • 20. Global Energy Consumption Global Exergy Consumption Humanity Units shown in Terawatts Units shown in Terawatts (TW) 18 TW Agriculture 3.8 Electricity 1.7 Manufacturing & Industrial 3 Forestry 3 Other 2.5 Chemicals Metabolism Lighting Heating Road Refrigeration & Cooking 2.3 & Rail 2.1
  • 21. Global consumption Sources of renewable energy. 16 TW 85 000 TW Surface Solar 3.5 TW Tidal 41 000 TW 38 000 TW 31 000 TW Evaporation Land & Water heating Atmospheric Absorption 300 TW Hydro Clouds 3600 TW Wind 25 TW Hydro Land 32 TW Geo thermal 7.2 TW Hydro Rivers 62 TW Ocean surface waves 90 TW Photosynthesis 25 TW Ocean 65 TW Land 3 TW Coastal waves 100 TW Ocean thermal gradient
  • 22. 2033 Energy Mix 15 TW Units shown in Terawatts (TW) (carbon-free) Nuclear: 3 er Geothermal 2 0.5 th wO Biofuels: 0.5 TW Ne els 2 Fu sil Fossil Fuels: 2TW Fos Existing Nuclear: 1 Existing Hydro / Renewables: 0.5 Photo Voltaic Solar 2 Ne w Win d ola r 2TW cS oltai o-V al Solar Thermal: 2 Wind:2 Ph ot Th erm w r Ne ola 2TW wS Ne 2TW
  • 23. that looks workable... what do we have to build?
  • 24. 2 TW New Photo Voltaic Photo Voltaic 100m 100m 100m 100m 100m m m 0m 100 m 100 0m 0 m 10 10 0m 0 10 m 10 0 m 10 10 m 0 0 10 m 10 m 0 . 0 10 sec 10 0m 0m 10 10 1 0m 0m 10 10 0m 0m 10 10 m m 100 100 100m 100m 100m 100m 100m 100m 100 m of solar cells 100m 100m 100m 100m every second for the next 100 100 m m m 10 0 10 0 m 25 years. 15% efficiency, 10 10 0 0 m good sitting. m 10 10 0 0 10 m m 10 0 0 m m 10 10 0 10 0 m 10 m 10 0m 10 0 10 10 m 0m 100 0 100 100m 0m 100m m 100m 100m 100m 0m m m
  • 25. 2 TW New Solar Thermal Solar Thermal 50m 50 m 50 m 50 m 50 m 50 m 50 m m m 50 m 50 m 50 m 50 m 50 50 m m 0 0 . 5 m sec m 5 0 0 5 5 0m 1 m 50 5 m m 50 50 m m 50 50 50 m 50 m 50 m 50 m 50 m 50 m 50m 50 m 50m 50 m 25 years 50 m of solar thermal 50 m 50 m mirrors every second for 50 m 50 m 50 the next 25 years. 30% 50 m m 50 50 m m 50 efficiency, well sited. 50 m m 5 5 0 0 m m 5 5 0 0 m 50 50 m 50 m 50 m 50 50 m 50 m m 50 m 50 m 50 m m 50 m 50 m 50m m
  • 26. 2 TW New Wind Wind er er met met ia Dia mD m 100 100 er et er et am Di am Di m 0 m 10 100 . 6 min 100m Diameter 100m Diameter 10 10 0 12 3MW wind turbines in m m 0 Di great locations every hour. Di am am et et er er Or one 100m diameter 100 100 mD m Dia turbine every 5 minutes… met ia m et er er
  • 27. 3 TW New Nuclear Nuclear March SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 1x 3GW Nuclear plant every 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 week for the next 25 years. 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  • 28. 2 TW Geothermal Geothermal March SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 3x 100MW steam turbines 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 every day for 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 next 25 years. 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  • 29. 0.5 TW carbon (net zero) biofuels?. Biofuel 1250m 1250m 1250m m m 0m 0m 1250 1250 m m 125 50 m 125 50 m 50 0m 50 12 12 m 12 50 12 25 m m 0 12 1 0 5 m 5 2 m 0 2 1 0 5 . 1 5 sec 2 0m 2 0m 1 1 25 1 25 1 0m 1 0m 25 25 1 1 m m 50 50 12 12 0m 0m 125 125 m m 1250 1250 1250m 1250m 1250m 1250m 1250 m or 1 olympic 1250m 1250m m 1250 1250 m swimming pool of algae 125 125 0m 0m 12 50 12 50 every second for the next m m 12 12 50 50 12 m 25 years. 12 m 50 50 1 1 2 m 2 m 5 5 0 0 1 m m 1 2 2 5 1 5 12 0 25 0 1 m 12 m 50 25 0m 12 12 125 50 125 m 0m 1250 50 1250 1250m 1250m 1250m 50 m m 0m m 0m m m
  • 30. Is that industrially possible? what should Detroit do?
  • 31. 110 bn cans / year... = 200 GW solar thermal / year.
  • 32. 9 Nokia phones every second. Nokia + INTEL + AMD + + for solar PV?
  • 33. GM = 1 car every 2 minutes. GM + FORD = 1 wind turbine every 5 minutes?
  • 34. Retooling for WWII. More than 300 000 aircraft were built in the US between 1939 and 1945.
  • 35. GLOBAL POWER CONSUMPTION, TW 15 10 10 TW in last 40 years! 5 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
  • 36. Land area by country represented as scaled stripes
  • 37. Land area per person in USA 160 140 equal land area per person globally represented as square Land area per person globally 120 100 meters 80 60 Average US of land required land required for watts by solar sauls squarecitizen square of for his watts generatedgenerated by solar 40 Land area required to produce my power consumption with solar. Land area for average US citizen by solar. 20 global average persons square of land to generate their energy with renewables Land area for average global citizen by solar. 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 meters
  • 38. SFO TO LHR 41 W W W 60 LHR- 3 W 4 SF 0 29 SFO S ER33 HT ATL HE O-A TH DS LIG ED SFO L-A -ATL 60 W O -SF A TL T T O RO EE 1 W 4 W M UN -CP A S- 410 W O1 K- TR A 160 O AT O E W 0W S AS H5 CC G IC 4 L- N G ST GY SF -H W N-A W 10 O JU ER 4 W W 3 O N N ER W 3 W NO -O 57 E H S A 1 S IR W OT S LE FA 0 SF K W 5 W 56 2 C F BO O- BO 0 HH A HI S-A ICE W S VE N RV S- S G V. A W SF 21 O ER -SE 0 OA OA K O 21 0 W G ET TA L 10 E K-O DC -DC 0 W 8W V S NS RD -O 18 S PO FE -M AK 0 OD 40 W ON -QU 18 W GO 3 DE QU E-D E2 0W ITE ION TW 10 WH UCAT 60 W -SF W ED ANCE O2 BUR-O SFO 10 W FIN -JFK W AK 20 W OAK-BUR 200 680 20 W JFK-SFO ARE W LTHC 200 W HEA SFO-BO W BOS-ORD S 210 W TION 110 70 W RECREA ORD-SFO 14 0W HOUSE 260 W SFO-JFK 200 W JFK-SFO 200 W 230 W MISCSTU SJC-SJO FF1000 W 0W JC 23 SJO-S W 280 BOO -VIJ KS SJC W WA 130 W 80 BIK STE C2 DIS -SJ NE ES P WS 6 WW OSA XTILE TE VIJ EL 18 ATE L 9 W S 90 EC 0W R1 TRA W TR 60 NSP W ON W OR 0 IC 1 14 CO S2 TTO ME M S YD PU 50 W 40 W O- TE SF RS BO W 70 0 AT 0 CA 31 W W S RS R 0 50 0W WO -D 31 56 0W W O WO ERTI 28 FO SF RK 0W AG IN 0 HILU 150 W 28 -S TE 0W W RK K HE W 0W .F OA SHOWERS GAS 70 W 0W COOKING GAS 30 W DR 31 RN EL AT FO 100 X 16 ET O- MA 24 HT EC 20 TAXIORRENTAL 47 K-S W SF 70 SIG LIZ TER 0W TR YV Saul, 2007 = OA W IC MY 2007 LIFE ER A IN UGG A TACO PRIN 41 OTA 50 ND 0W EB GE S W TOY 17027 W HO 18000 Watts DUN TOYOT AG ELEC CIDE AG PEST 0 W 0 W DOD . FO AG . CO (pre tax) . BE SS RIC FF SU ER CE ILF OTHER EE LIGHTS GA T STERE FR LAPTOP COMPU &W W I RE FRIDGE DA UE HEATIN R UIT 50 W S 3 2 FA AL IRY LS ME INE 20 40 TS ,V S& S ELEC 8 O ELEC AT 80 ELEC 7 EG AN GGS W 10 6 TER EL ELEC 1 G GAS 4 GR TS 9 ELEC 3 &E W DO &N W AIN U IL 0W W S 1W EC 10 16 0W 10 00 W W 0W 0W 0W W W
  • 39. Consumption Facts Container Mass 1.58oz (44.9g) Components per container 3 Embodied Energy Per Container Total 4,609,420 Joules PETE 38.81g 3,962,400 Joules HDPE 4.83g 497,500 Joules Cellulosic 1.34g 149,520 Joules Recycle rate 23% Landfill rate 43% Energy recovery rate 16% Lost to environmental waste 18% Personal Energy Footprint % Daily Value* Total 4.54% Transport (avg.estimated) 0.69% Manufacture 0.46% Embodied Energy 2.67% Refrigeration (avg.estimated) 0.71% * Personal Energy Footprint is based on a recommended 2000 Watt lifestyle. The average US consumer has a 11400 Watt lifestyle. ! Consuming this product daily is equivalent to increasing your energy footprint by 90 Watts. Also contains per bottle Plasticizers 43mg† Estrogen 0.12mg† Carcinogenic Dye 0.19mg† † Safe daily values not yet established.
  • 40. 1 Joule of fossil energy used produces 4.9x10-21 ppm increase. How many ppm to replace every gasoline car in the world (1bN) with a 1000kg electric vehicle? = 0.49 ppm How many ppm for 250 million new green homes? = 8.9 ppm How many ppm for installing : 5TW solar = 6.1 ppm 3TW wind = 0.55 ppm 2TW geothermal = 0.49 ppm So there is + 19 ppm right there. Scary. Might be good to ask questions of form: How many ppm for 6 bN new laptops? = 0.05 ppm 6 bN cellphones? = 0.03 ppm 6 bN 100 Watt lightbulbs burning for 1 year? = 0.2ppm
  • 41. is cleantech maintech? Not even close. Not until the scale is so massive, that people are protesting it.
  • 42. Design for the age of consequence.
  • 43. wattzon.com Measure what is measureable, make measure- able what is not. - Galileo
  • 44. 2255 Watt thinking: 100 mpg ? 20 Miles per day. 500Watts.
  • 45. 55 100 mph kph