Homes jobs and transport

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  • 1. Homes, Jobs & Transport John Siraut Economist - Associate Director Colin Buchanan and Partners Essex Planning Officers’ Association 28 October 2004
  • 2. Is it better to have homes and jobs located together, and are local links by car better or worse than longer commutes by train ?
  • 3. Presentation structure
    • Homes
    • Work
    • Commuting
    • Economics, Planning, Environment
    • Solutions
  • 4. Like Father like Son?
  • 5. Housing demand -Essex
    • Change in population
      • 1901-2001 1.1 to 1.6m
    • Change in household size
      • 1901-2001 4.6 to 2.4
    • Extra households
      • 1901-2001 240k to 670k
      • 110k due to increase in population
      • 320k due to smaller household size
  • 6. Housing affordability
  • 7. Housing starts
  • 8. Housing tenure
    • Tenure 1914
      • Owned 10%
      • Private rented 90%
    • Tenure 2001
      • Owned 69%
      • Social rented 19%
      • Private rented 10%
  • 9. Housing & mobility
    • Homeowner - average occupancy 15 years
    • Renter - average occupancy 10 years but 20% less than 12 months
    • <35 year olds - average occupancy 3 years
    • 60% of movers stay within 5 miles
    • 13% of moves are job related (of which 1/3 new job with new employer)
  • 10. Men & women
    • 1900 - workforce 70% male 30% female
    • 1911 - 10% married women in work
    • 2011 - 69% men, 57% women will be economically active
  • 11. Employees (Male & Female)
  • 12. % in same job as 12 months ago
    • 51% of 18-24 year olds
    • 71% lowest quartile of earnings
    • 74% of private sector employees
    • <75% of 25-34 year olds
    • 80% in rented accommodation
    • 83% of public sector employees
    • 85% highest quartile of earnings
    • 86% of 50+ year olds
    • 89% of all parents
    • 91% own accommodation outright
  • 13. Jobs & housing
    • 12.5% working population may change jobs each year
    • 0.33% working population move house to take up a new job with a new employer each year
  • 14. Method of travel to work 1890-2001 68 7 8 0 3 11 2001 45 19 16 0 5 13 1970-79 6 24 23 7 20 17 1940-49 0 15 5 17 2 56 1890-99 Car Train Bus Tram Cycle Walk
  • 15. Commuting
  • 16. Commuting - Essex
    • Average commute in Essex 8.6 miles
    • Ranges by ward from under 5 in parts of Colchester to 13 miles in parts of Braintree
    • About 1/3 of males in Essex commute out of the county for work
  • 17. Mode of travel to work - Essex
    • Up to 33% commute by underground in Epping
    • Over 40% commute by national rail from Chafford
    • Over 10% commute by bus in Colchester
    • Over 80% drive in Uttlesford & Braintree
    • Around 40% drive in Southend
    • Almost 10% cycle in Harwich
    • Over 1/3 walk in Uttlesford
  • 18. Average trip length
    • 1985/6 1992/4 2003 P % increase 2003/1985
    • Commuting 6.1 7.5 8.5 40%
    • Business 17.3 17.6 20.9 21%
    • Education 2.1 2.8 3.0 46%
    • Escort education 1.4 1.8 2.1 51%
    • Shopping 2.9 3.5 4.3 48%
    • Visiting friends 6.7 7.8 9.2 37%
    • Entertainment 6.0 7.9 8.1 35%
    • All purposes 5.2 6.1 6.9 33%
  • 19. % commuting by car
  • 20. Travel costs
    • In the last decade in real terms
      • All motoring costs fallen by 4%
      • Bus fares increased by 11%
      • Car purchase costs fallen by 30%
      • London commuter rail fares fallen by 6%
  • 21. Car ownership
    • 1951 86% households had no car
    • 2001 26% households had no car
    • 2001 28% households had 2 cars
  • 22. In summary
    • Massive increase in households
    • Greater female participation in labour force
    • Massive increase in car ownership
    • Switch from home renting to ownership
    • Travel is cheap
    • Increase in house prices
    • Greater job mobility
  • 23. Implications
    • People less likely to live close to where they work
  • 24. Economics V Planning V Environment
    • Free market economy - freedom to choose where we live, work and travel
    • Planning - land use allocations not determined by free market
    • Environment - transport is generally not sustainable
      • CO 2 emissions - car output 3.6 * rail
  • 25. Solutions
    • Planning
      • Ensure homes and jobs are co-located
      • More mixed use developments
      • Worker homes
      • But job mobility is higher than housing mobility
      • In Milton Keynes 20% of population commute out and 25% of jobs are taken from outside
  • 26. Solutions
    • Tied housing
      • Distant past, common for employers to provide housing for employees
      • Recent past most tied housing gone eg police
      • Present, move towards increase in tied accommodation
      • Reduces labour mobility and introduces economic inefficiencies in the market
  • 27. Solutions
    • Increase travel costs
      • Transport is to cheap leading to substantial unsustainable commuting
      • Would lead to major changes in spatial demand for housing
      • Politically unacceptable - impossible to put the genie back in the bottle
  • 28. Solutions
    • London
      • Massive increase in housing provision
      • Improve education especially in the inner city
      • Tackle crime
      • Improve public transport in outer London
      • Introduce cordon charges for travel into Greater London