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Key Note Paper               Food Prices          From Crisis to Stability   Prof. Zahurul Karim Ph DFellow of the Banglad...
IntroductionRice alone is not the food.Food is: balanced proportions of carbohydrate,fat, protein, vitamin and nutrients &...
Food Production in Bangladesh                                                      Impressive achievement on              ...
Foodgrain production in 2009/10 and             2010-11
Growth of non-rice food commodities            Production of non-rice crops            either negative or stagnating      ...
Trends in vegetable production
Growth of Livestock Products
Growth of Fisheries     3,000,000     2,500,000     2,000,000                                  Inland open w ater (capture...
Food Crisis•Food crisis is always attributed by food price hike. •Food crisis has gripped the world at different times of ...
Food price•When supply could not meet the demand itcauses market failure leading to rise in food price.•Food pricing is a ...
50-years trend in global food price       Crisis during early 1970sPolicies and actions of industrialized countriesoften i...
Current Global Food CrisisOil oligarchy is the manipulator
Causes of volatility•Productivity decline and falling R&D•Population growth•Strong growth in demand specially from Chinaan...
Recent price volatility in Bangladesh                                                         (1966=100)                  ...
Trend in rice prices in Bangladesh4,500.004,000.003,500.003,000.002,500.00                                             Ric...
Trend in the prices of pulses and spices in Bangladesh14,000.0012,000.0010,000.00 8,000.00                                ...
Trend in fish prices in Bangladesh 25,000.00 20,000.00 15,000.00                                                          ...
Trend in potato, Brinjal and soybean oil prices in Bangladesh     12,000.00     10,000.00      8,000.00                   ...
Challenges Aggravating Price Hike         in Bangladesh•Population growth•Poverty•Wide yield gap•Inadequate coverage of an...
Challenges Aggravating Price Hike……contd.•Availability of quality seed•Feeds and fodder•Declining efficiency of fertilizer...
Increasing mouth to feed2.5 million every year
People in poverty                                         250  40% is poor                                                ...
Framing StrategyStrategy for food price stabilizationis in three Es  •Ecology  •Economics  •Equity
Unlocking Potentials for Stabilizing Food Price• Govt. commitment, vision & mindset.• Food security is key to price stabil...
Unlocking Potentials for Stabilizing Food Price                   Our food bowl!•People in developing countries eat roughl...
Changed meal composition in Japan and               China
ConclusionImport of food is import of poverty.Nation should harness all resources for enhancingproductivity, saving ecol...
ConclusionSatisfactory public stock must be maintained& enhanced Stock capacity up to 2 MT.Food should not be left out a...
e                               o m                          rc                    v   e                   O              ...
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Food Prices From Crisis to Stability

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Key Note Paper by Prof. Zahurul Karim Ph D
Fellow of the Bangladesh Academy of Sciences & Academy of Sciences for the Developing World
Chairman,CASEED
 
CARE’S Presentation
August 4 2012

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Transcript of "Food Prices From Crisis to Stability"

  1. 1. Key Note Paper Food Prices From Crisis to Stability Prof. Zahurul Karim Ph DFellow of the Bangladesh Academy of Sciences & Academy of Sciences for the Developing World Chairman,CASEED CARE’S Presentation August 4 2012
  2. 2. IntroductionRice alone is not the food.Food is: balanced proportions of carbohydrate,fat, protein, vitamin and nutrients & mineralsFood security encompasses availability access utilization
  3. 3. Food Production in Bangladesh Impressive achievement on foodgrain production Fig 1:Trend of Foodgrain Production Thousand MT 35000 2500 30000 2000 Foodgrain 25000 WheatThousand MT 1500 20000 15000 1000 10000 500 5000 0 0 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -1 95 96 97 98 99 00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 19 19 19 19 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
  4. 4. Foodgrain production in 2009/10 and 2010-11
  5. 5. Growth of non-rice food commodities Production of non-rice crops either negative or stagnating Food Items Percent/Year (1971-2007) Wheat -2.9 Pulses 0.3 Oil crops 2.3 Potatoes 3.0 Vegetables 1.5 Sugar -1.2 Fish 2.5 Meat 2.3 Milk 2.3 Egg 4.0
  6. 6. Trends in vegetable production
  7. 7. Growth of Livestock Products
  8. 8. Growth of Fisheries 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Inland open w ater (capture) Inland open w ater (culture)MT 1,500,000 Marine Total 1,000,000 500,000 0 20 07 19 99 20 04 20 20 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 05 20 -06 8 -0 6- - - - - - - - 98 99 00 02 03 04 05 07 01 00 19
  9. 9. Food Crisis•Food crisis is always attributed by food price hike. •Food crisis has gripped the world at different times of civilizations because of multiple threats or combination of events that include catastrophic floods, disastrous environmental hazards, war and riots and market failure. In 20th century during Extreme food crisis hunger drove people to cannibalism. The poor ate cats, dogs, dead cattle and dropping of birds, etc.
  10. 10. Food price•When supply could not meet the demand itcauses market failure leading to rise in food price.•Food pricing is a complex process linked to chainof production, processing, stocks, transportationand marketing systems.
  11. 11. 50-years trend in global food price Crisis during early 1970sPolicies and actions of industrialized countriesoften induce price hike and food crisis in the impoverished nations
  12. 12. Current Global Food CrisisOil oligarchy is the manipulator
  13. 13. Causes of volatility•Productivity decline and falling R&D•Population growth•Strong growth in demand specially from Chinaand India•Rising Oil prices•Land use change for Biofuel production•Climate change and environmental vulnerabilities•Declining stocks and reserves•Trade shocks: export restrictions, import surges
  14. 14. Recent price volatility in Bangladesh (1966=100) 250Consumer price index Food prices 200 All prices 150 100 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
  15. 15. Trend in rice prices in Bangladesh4,500.004,000.003,500.003,000.002,500.00 Rice Medium2,000.00 Rice Coarse1,500.00 Rice Fine1,000.00 500.00 - 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 10 01 09 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Source: DAM-Price in the figure is BDT per 100 kg
  16. 16. Trend in the prices of pulses and spices in Bangladesh14,000.0012,000.0010,000.00 8,000.00 Lentil (Masure) Onion 6,000.00 Chilly(Dry) 4,000.00 2,000.00 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: DAM-Price in the figure is BDT per 100 kg
  17. 17. Trend in fish prices in Bangladesh 25,000.00 20,000.00 15,000.00 Carp Telapia 10,000.00 Pangash 5,000.00 - 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: DAM-Price in the figure is BDT per 100 kg
  18. 18. Trend in potato, Brinjal and soybean oil prices in Bangladesh 12,000.00 10,000.00 8,000.00 Potato 6,000.00 Brinjal 4,000.00 Soybean Oil 2,000.00 - 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Source: DAM-Price in the figure is BDT per 100 kg or lit.
  19. 19. Challenges Aggravating Price Hike in Bangladesh•Population growth•Poverty•Wide yield gap•Inadequate coverage of animal health service•Land related constraints•Scarcity of quality water for irrigation•Environmental vulnerability and climate change•Management of public water bodies and restoration ofhabitat•Improving the productivity of brackish water shrimp•Stock assessment of marine fisheries
  20. 20. Challenges Aggravating Price Hike……contd.•Availability of quality seed•Feeds and fodder•Declining efficiency of fertilizer plants and lackof initiative on establishing new one•Food safety, quality and standards•Weak national mainstream extensionapproach•Degradation of forest resources in protectedareas•Low productivity of forestry
  21. 21. Increasing mouth to feed2.5 million every year
  22. 22. People in poverty 250 40% is poor Total and 25% is 200 ultra-poor orextreme poor. 150 Population (million) Urban Rural 100 Women and 50 children suffer 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 the Population projection for Bangladesh most.
  23. 23. Framing StrategyStrategy for food price stabilizationis in three Es •Ecology •Economics •Equity
  24. 24. Unlocking Potentials for Stabilizing Food Price• Govt. commitment, vision & mindset.• Food security is key to price stabilization• Population stabilization through women’s empowerment• Major breakthrough in R&D• Targeted programs for the ultra poor workforce• Save our agriculture land• Post-harvest loss management• Public stock of foodgrain• Evolving climate resilient agriculture
  25. 25. Unlocking Potentials for Stabilizing Food Price Our food bowl!•People in developing countries eat roughly 400lbs of grain per capita annually mostly in the formof bread or gruel, but an American consumes 5 to6 times more in the form of grain-fed beef, porkand chicken.•Food diversification in Bangladesh is a MUST.Change food composition in the bowl
  26. 26. Changed meal composition in Japan and China
  27. 27. ConclusionImport of food is import of poverty.Nation should harness all resources for enhancingproductivity, saving ecology.Exodus of scientists must be reversed, bringingthem back by creating enabling environment.Biofuel production in the land suitable for cropsshould be abandoned.Investment in agriculture must be enhanced.Govt. DPs, Private sector all should urgently fill upthe investment gap identified in CIP.
  28. 28. ConclusionSatisfactory public stock must be maintained& enhanced Stock capacity up to 2 MT.Food should not be left out at the hands ofmarket-syndicates.State interventions in terms of incentivesupport, public procurement, targeted programfor the poor and vigilance against marketdistortions should be the important task of thegovernment.
  29. 29. e o m rc v e O a ll S h eW

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