Is the Internet, and specifically social media and smartphones, changing China? A deck that serves as base for a talk I have given a few times

1. Chinese Politics 2.0
November 15, 2012
Bill Bishop Bill@Sinocism.com
The Sinocism China Newsletter
Thursday, March 7, 13

2. Big Market, Still Growing, Going Mobile
• 538 million Internet users at June 30, 388 million access at least occasionally via mobile phones
538 Million Netizens, 39.9% Penetration of China’s
Population
388 Million Mobile Internet Users, 72.2% of
Netizens use Mobile Internet, More Chinese
users access the Web from mobile devices
than a PC - 388 million vs. 380 million.
Bill Bishop--The Sinocism China Newsletter
Thursday, March 7, 13

3. Massive Smartphone Growth
“Smart phone prices have dropped to about $100 for an acceptable Android phone, and
about $200 for a full-featured Android phone. Smart phones are now spreading like
wildfire. About a year ago, there were less than 50M users, basically affluent or tech
savvy users who were willing to pay $500 for a phone and $30 a month for 3G. But now,
students, young white collar, and even blue collar workers are swarming into the smart
phone market!“--Kaifu Lee
Bill Bishop--The Sinocism China Newsletter
Thursday, March 7, 13

4. Short But Explosive History of Weibo In China
• Weibo (Way-Bwah 微博) literally means microblog
• Blogging popular in China for years, and Bulletin Board Services (BBS) far more
popular than in West
• First Weibos launched in 2008 as Twitter clones. TaoTao (Tencent), Jiwai, Fanfou
among others, none got significant traction
• Fanfou shut July 2009 after Urumqi riots, went back online late 2010 but game
over for them
• Sina Weibo launched August 2009, with approval from PRC regulators
• 8m Chinese Weibo users in 2009, 400m+ now
• Both Sina and Tencent claim 300m+ microblog users
• Top accounts have 20m+ followers, not just movie stars and celebrities but also
CEOs, investors, academics have millions of fans
Bill Bishop--The Sinocism China Newsletter
Thursday, March 7, 13

5. A Weibo With Media and Conversation
Click Picture To Expand
Click “Comment”
Link To Expand List
Click to expand inline media, videos
play “inside” the tweet
Comments expand to display list of
comments to tweet, allows for more
robust, engaged, threaded
“conversations”
Bill Bishop--The Sinocism China Newsletter
Thursday, March 7, 13

6. Censorship But...
• Dual-track approach to censorship, aka information management
• Great Firewall (GFW) to filter content from overseas
• Domestic systems to delete whatever government deems improper. Those systems involve both
software and people.
• Chinese internet companies are forced to sign government-mandated “self discipline” pledges, and
large firms employ dozens or hundreds of censors who monitor content and remove anything of
concern.
• Failure to comply leads to warnings, fines, shutdowns or worse. The government provides guidance on
restricted topics but has structured enough ambiguity into the system so that company censors
frequently overcompensate in their compliance..
Government Has Embraced Social Media And What Is Allowed To Be Discussed
More Interesting Than What Is Censored
Bill Bishop--The Sinocism China Newsletter
Thursday, March 7, 13

7. Forcing Some Accountability, Exacerbating Credibility Gap
• Deng Yujiao killed a lascivious official, freed after online uproar
• “My Dad is Li Gang” drunk driving incident
• July 2011 Wenzhou train crash
• Pollution data transparency after campaign by SOHO China chairman Pan Shiyi
• “Watch Brother” Yang Dacai and the “Human Flesh Search Engines”
7
Bill Bishop--The Sinocism China Newsletter
Thursday, March 7, 13

8. Environmental NIMBY Protests Get Wired
All those raised hands are holding smartphones, not placards
“The cabinet of China has ordered that all major industrial projects must pass a “social risk assessment” before they begin, a move
aimed at curtailing the large and increasingly violent environmental protests of the last year, which forced the suspension or
cancellation of chemical plants, coal-fired power plants and a giant copper smelter.”--New York Times November 13th
Bill Bishop--The Sinocism China Newsletter
Thursday, March 7, 13

9. Bo Xilai Case--Elite Political Conflict 2.0
• Wang Lijun’s stay the US Consulate was
broadcast in near real time on Weibo
• Screenshot of flight reservations for Vice
Minister of State Security posted
• Chongqing government official Weibo mocked
for declaring Wang Lijun “accepting vacation-
style treatment” due to stress and “long-term
overwork.”
• Alleged murder of Neil Heywood first broke
on Weibo
• Terms related to Bo Xilai/Wang Lijun/Neil
Heywood sometimes blocked, sometimes not
• Crazy coup rumors, several detained
• Control of Weibo key asset in any political
struggle
Elite political conflict not new in China but first time the masses could watch live
Bill Bishop--The Sinocism China Newsletter
Thursday, March 7, 13

10. Will The Internet Force Change In China?
• It already has
• First time perhaps in history Chinese have had such a large and open public sphere
• Criticism, calls for reform are allowed, up to a point
• Corruption, incompetence, injustice, environmental degradation at any level can now almost instantly
become a national issue
• Social media usage, especially via smartphones, is rapidly expanding from urban to rural users,
getting harder to cover things up
• Center-local relations have always been problematic, and Beijing uses social media, and especially
Weibo, to monitor and reign in local governments
• Government departments at all levels have Weibo accounts, many are proactive and responsive
• But so far no “big fish” have been brought down, no major reforms
• Official credibility in shreds, income disparity, slowing economy contributing to expectations gap
• Government needs to address credibility and expectations gaps
• The horse is out of the barn, Beijing under huge pressure to further reforms
• Internet unlikely to bring system change but will force more accountable, responsive authoritarianism
Bill Bishop--The Sinocism China Newsletter 10
Thursday, March 7, 13

11. Thanks
November 15, 2012
Bill Bishop Bill@Sinocism.com
The Sinocism China Newsletter
Thursday, March 7, 13