How to estimate the size of your userbase without download statstics
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How to estimate the size of your userbase without download statstics

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Lightning talk, osdc 2008, sydney

Lightning talk, osdc 2008, sydney

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How to estimate the size of your userbase without download statstics Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Guessing the size of your user base
  • 2. Without download statistics
  • 3. Step 1. Define what you want to know 1. Number of users (2. Potential for growth)
  • 4. Step 2. Run a questionnaire
    • What country are you in?
    • 5. How many people are on your team?
    • 6. How many of those people are writing code with Catalyst? If there are non Catalyst coders on your team, how many of the whole team would you like to be writing Catalyst code?
    • 7. How many people using Catalyst on your team are subscribers to the Catalyst mailing list?
    • 8. How many people writing Catalyst code on your team use the #catalyst IRC channel on irc.perl.org?
    • 9. What do you see as potential for growth of Catalyst in your organisation? How many people do you think will be using Catalyst in your organisation in 12 months? In 2 years?
  • 10. Step 3. Remove stupid questions
    • What country are you in?
    • 11. How many people are on your team?
    • 12. How many of those people are writing code with Catalyst? If there are non Catalyst coders on your team, how many of the whole team would you like to be writing Catalyst code?
    • 13. How many people using Catalyst on your team are subscribers to the Catalyst mailing list?
    • 14. How many people writing Catalyst code on your team use the #catalyst IRC channel on irc.perl.org?
    • 15. What do you see as potential for growth of Catalyst in your organisation? How many people do you think will be using Catalyst in your organisation in 12 months?
  • 16. Step 4. Advertise
    • Mailing list
    • 17. Perlmongers
    • 18. Perlbuzz
  • 19. Best practice: Send out three reminders Our practice: Send out no reminders Best practice: Concentrate on hard to reach groups Our practice: Just collect data quickly Step 5. Wait for responses
  • 20. Number of responses 153
  • 21. Number of potential respondents Asked for one response per team. Median team size 4, 1000 mailing list subscribers 88% of teams have 2 or less subscribers
  • 22. Reached from: RSS/NNTP users Perlbuzz Perlmongers But what about non subscribers?
  • 23. How many users across the list? 3.4 users per mailing list subscriber 1000 subscribers = 3400 users
  • 24. Naïve estimation 3400 + 20% extra
  • 25. Correction for Non-Response Bias (this is a technique from marketing) Solution: Pull numbers out of the air. 50% inflation? 100% inflation?? Run another survey with more aggressive recruitment to get a better estimate of NRB
  • 26. Final estimate We know about 3400 users connected to subscribers. We know that this is at least a 20% under-estimate
  • 27. 4000-7000 serious users + casual users Final estimate
  • 28. Next year Validate our estimate with a more extensive survey.