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Indian Elections Summary Report for December 2013
 

Indian Elections Summary Report for December 2013

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Can social media Turn the tables in Indian Elections 2014? Find out more here. #election2014

Can social media Turn the tables in Indian Elections 2014? Find out more here. #election2014

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Indian Elections Summary Report for December 2013 Indian Elections Summary Report for December 2013 Presentation Transcript

  • SOCIAL MEDIA BUZZ ANALYSIS REPORT December 2013
  • What to expect? 1. Top 10 Politicians 2. Top Political Parties 3. Can social media turn the tables in Indian elections 2014? 4. Uncover the key insights on Elections
  • Key Findings this December 2.6 Crore – total active reach of social media buzz in December 2013 BJP wins big on social media; AAP catching up. With the victory in Delhi elections, Arvind Kejriwal made it to the No. 1 position among the politicians Narendra Modi beaten by Kejriwal in December. Modi slipped to the No. 2 position. Arvind Kejriwal & AAP are clearly the gainer of buzz after the Delhi election poll results were declared View slide
  • TOP 10 POLITICIANS DECEMBER 2013 View slide
  • TOP 10 POLITICIANS Simplify360 Social Index (SSI) 70 73 1 Arvind Kejriwal No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 1,67,515 7,84,734 61 2 Narendra Modi 3 Rahul Gandhi ARVIND KEJRIWAL No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 1,08,331 5,36,202 SINGH No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 24,559 40,104 Shashi Tharoor 7 HARSH VARDHAN No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 62,532 1,94,649 59 61 Sheila Dikshit 6 MANMOHAN 68 69 17,366 32,108 Ranking of politicians based on a politician’s overall score 4 Manmohan Singh 5 Sonia Gandhi No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 44,637 99,314 20,852 53,545 9 Rajnath Singh No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 30,450 78,008 56 58 8 Harsh JAITLEY ARUN Vardhan No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 63 14,436 33,815 10 Subramanian Swamy No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 28,355 1,00,211
  • THOUSANDS 6 FOLD INCREASE IN BUZZ ON ARVIND KEJRIWAL POST DELHI ELECTION RESULTS 90 80 70 Be it the buzz on government formation in Delhi or Arvind Kejriwal to be CM or people surprised on AAP surpassing the expectations - Arvind Kejriwal has certainly become the rockstar on social media 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 01-12-2013 06-12-2013 11-12-2013 16-12-2013 21-12-2013 26-12-2013 Narendra Modi Arvind Kejriwal Rahul Gandhi Sonia Gandhi Daily mentions of the top 4 most mentioned politicians in December, 2013 Average mentions per day on Arvind Kejriwal Before the Delhi elections poll result 4,933 After the Delhi elections poll result 31,258 31-12-2013
  • ARVIND KEJRIWAL IS CLEARLY THE TOP GAINER OF BUZZ AFTER THE DELHI ELECTION POLL RESULT Total mentions 31,258 Average Mentions per day Before Delhi Elections poll result Average Mentions per day After Delhi Elections poll result 17,195 17,327 7,480 4,933 2,160 Arvind Kejriwal Narendra Modi Rahul 3,177 2,324 Sonia Gandhi Delhi Poll result impact analysis: Comparison of number of mentions of a politician before and after the declaration of poll result on Dec 8, 2013. Mentions on Dec 8 onwards is considered as post poll mentions.
  • TOP TWEETS ON MODI 1 3 2 4
  • TOP TWEETS ON ARVIND KEJRIWAL 1 2 3
  • TOP TWEETS ON RAHUL GANDHI 1 3 2 4
  • Politicians by favorability score Most loved Least loved 81 17 1. LALU PRASAD YADAV 1. ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE 39 78 2. SYED SHAHNAWAZ HUSSAIN 2. ARUN JAITLEY & 77 3. Y. S. JAGANMOHAN REDDY 46 3. MULAYAM SINGH YADAV & AKHILESH YADAV Note: Analysis based on the top politicians whose buzz volume is greater than 5K during December month
  • TOP POLITICAL PARTIES DECEMBER 2013 Parties
  • TOP POLITICAL PARTIES Simplify360 Social Index (SSI) 79 Bharatiya Janata Party 1 BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 155,811 963,667 2 3 Aam Aadmi Party No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 102,948 470,223 46 48 4 63 71 5 NCP No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 10,183 18,688 Indian National Congress No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 127,270 435,449 39 6 CPI (M) No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 23,158 38,444 Bahujan Samaj Party No. of unique people talking Total buzz in the month 8,145 13,729
  • THOUSANDS BJP LEADS WITH A WIDE MARGIN; CONSISTENTLY 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 01-12-2013 06-12-2013 11-12-2013 16-12-2013 21-12-2013 26-12-2013 31-12-2013 -20 Indian National Congress Bharatiya Janata Party Aam Aadmi Party Daily mentions of the top 4 most mentioned political parties in December, 2013 Communist Party of India (Marxist)
  • SOCIAL MEDIA SCORE OF MOST PROMINENT POLITICAL PARTIES Following is the list of 9 most prominent national and regional parties with their performance stats on social media. Total score is arrived by considering four broad parameters. Details of the methodology is given in the appendix Party Name Bharatiya Janata Party Aam Aadmi Party Indian National Congress Nationalist Congress Party Communist Party of India (Marxist) Bahujan Samaj Party Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Biju Janata Dal Janata Dal (United) Buzz Volume Unique People Talking 9,63,667 4,70,223 4,35,449 18,688 38,444 13,729 8,513 6,972 10,197 1,55,811 1,02,948 1,27,270 10,183 23,158 8,145 5,719 4,848 6,338 Note: Analysis based on the top parties whose buzz volume is greater than 5K during December month Simplify360 Social Index (SSI) 79 71 63 48 46 39 38 35 30
  • TOP TWEETS ON BJP 1 3 2 4
  • TOP TWEETS ON AAP 1 3 2 4
  • TOP TWEETS ON CONGRESS 1 3 2 4
  • Parties by favorability score Most loved Least loved 93 7 1. BHARATATIYA JANATA PARTY 1. JANATA DAL (UNITED) 8 79 2. COMMUNIST PARTY OF INDIA (MARXIST) 2. AAM AADMI PARTY 12 30 3. BIJU JANATA DAL 3. NATIONALIST CONGRESS PARTY Note: Analysis based on the top parties whose buzz volume is greater than 5K during December month
  • Can social media Turn the tables in Indian Elections 2014?
  • TOP 4 REASONS ON WHY SOCIAL MEDIA IS IMPORTANT 1 2 Percentage of Indian voters on Social Media close to votes won by Congress in 2009 In 2009, Congress won Lok sabha election with a vote share of only 28.6% of all the votes casted. So the presence of 24% of Indian voters on social media is really big to turn the tables in Indian Elections. 2.6 Crore Indians read tweets related to elections 2.6 Crore Indians have read Tweets on elections from their timeline over the past one month. There are likely chances that this voting population can be influenced by social media discussions 31% 31% of Indian people who are on Twitter have read a Tweet on Indian Elections over the past one month 3 Peer recommendations on social media are very powerful Most people trust their peer recommendations. This peer recommendations can influence a voter’s decision on whether or not to support a party/politician 90% 90% of consumers trust peer recommendations on social media* 4 Discussions on elections is a hot topic on social media Almost everyday, either a political party or a politician has trended on Twitter signifies how hot is the discussion on elections in social media Source: www.socialnomics.net
  • 24% OF ACTUAL VOTERS ARE ON SOCIAL MEDIA Steps Methodology Calculation Total population of India Step 1: Voting Population Calculation of ‘People actual Voting’ Voting Population with card and availability People actual voting Step 2: Total Online Population Calculation of ‘Percentage % of Total population of social media users Social media users in India in online population’ % of social media users in online population Step3: % Social Media Users w.r.t voting Population Calculation of % of actual voters on % of actual voters on Social Media Social Media Statistics 1,27,00,00,000 60% 70%* 70%* 76,20,00,000 53,34,00,000 37,33,80,000 12,30,00,000 Total Online Population/Total population of India 10% 9,10,00,000 Source WorldPopulationStat istics.Com BusinessStandard.com Assumption Assumption Economictimes.India times.com Calculation TimesofIndia.Indiati mes.com No.of social media users/total Online Population 74% Calculation Social media users in India/Voting Population 12% Calculation Social media users in India/People actually voting 24% Calculation
  • Number of People who actually read a tweet on Politics: Globally 1 7 2 0 4 4 0 4 6 , , , Number of People who actually read a tweet on Politics: India 31% of Twitter users in India have actually read a tweet on Politics. 2 5 8 0 6 6 0 7 , , , Total tweets on Elections: India 3 7 1 0 1 0 1 , , Total people talking about elections: India 8 7 8 1 2 7 , ,
  • Unique people talking: Week on Week basis Delhi Elections have certainly triggered many people to talk on elections, whether it is the above par performance of AAP or BJP, social media has become a key platform for people to raise their voice *Week starting from Monday Week 49 2,10,510 Week 50 Week 51 Week 52 3,20,075 2,61,494 2,23,051
  • Top 3 States discussing on Indian Elections As expected, Delhi elections have fuelled the pace of people talking on Elections making NCT as the top region followed by Maharashtra and Karnataka. 24.1% 23.6% 13.2% %age mentions from NCT %age mentions from Maharashtra %age mentions from Karnataka Gender wise distribution 18% 82% FEMALE MALE Most of the discussions on Politics were from Men
  • “ What could possibly be more important than what your consumers [voters] say about you?” Mary O’Connell Director of Global Digital Marketing, Clorox Brands
  • BUZZ ON INDIAN ELECTIONS IS ON AN INCREASING TREND Delhi elections (Polls) counting day 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 23-11-2013 28-11-2013 03-12-2013 08-12-2013 Count 13-12-2013 Linear (Count) 18-12-2013 23-12-2013 28-12-2013
  • BUZZ VOLUME AND NUMBER OF SEATS A PARTY WON HAS MODERATE CORRELATION 32 35 12,00,000 28 30 8,00,000 20 6,00,000 15 8 9,63,667 4,00,000 10 5 4,70,223 4,35,449 0 2,00,000 0 Indian National Congress Bharatiya Janata Party Buzz Volume PARTY NAME Bharatiya Janata Party Aam Aadmi Party Indian National Congress Aam Aadmi Party No.of seats won by a party BUZZ VOLUME 9,63,667 4,70,223 4,35,449 NO.OF SEATS A PARTY WON IN DELHI ELECTIONS 32 28 8 Buzz Volume No.of Seats 25 10,00,000
  • BUZZ OPINION DIRECTLY REFLECTS ON BALLOT 32 35 100 28 30 90 No.of Seats 25 70 20 60 50 93 15 79 8 10 5 40 30 20 24 10 0 0 Indian National Congress Bharatiya Janata Party Favorability Score PARTY NAME Favorability Score (On a scale of 100) Bharatiya Janata Party Aam Aadmi Party Indian National Congress *Sample of data is used for sentiment analysis of parties 93 79 24 Aam Aadmi Party No.of seats won NO.OF SEATS A PARTY WON IN DELHI ELECTIONS 32 28 8 Favorability Score 80
  • APPENDIX About the Company and Research Methodology
  • CAN WE RANK A POLITICIAN/PARTY BASED ON PEOPLE’S OPINION ON SOCIAL MEDIA? Uncover the Simplify360 Social Index (SSI) for ranking a politician/Party Reasons on why ranking is important? 1. Buzz alone cannot determine the performance of a politician/party 2. Ranking helps in benchmarking a politician/party with others 3. Few people generating more buzz on a politician/party may not indicate a politician/party has performed well compared to others on social media
  • Simplify360 Social Index (SSI) A POLITICIAN/PARTY IS RANKED BASED ON FOUR BROAD PARAMETERS AWARENESS SPREAD Total Twitter mentions and unique people talking about a party/politician are considered for finding the Awareness score Volume of buzz Weights X% Unique People talking about Y% Measures the quality of Twitter mentions spread by considering Total impressions, total buzz and unique people talking about PROMINENCE A measure of how prominient a politician on other social media platforms, which is measured through Twitter by considering the links shared, images and videos FAVORABILITY Measures the extent of Favourability a politican/party. Considers Sentiment in to account for analyzing the Favorability score Quality of Spread Number of images or videos and links Considers Opinion of people Z% P% Q% SCORES ARE NORMALIZED AT EACH SUB PARAMETER LEVEL AND AT BROAD PARAMETER LEVEL TO GET THE FINAL SCORE FOR A POLITICIAN/PARTY
  • About the Data: Timeframe: December 01, 2013 – December 31, 2013 Geography: India Data sources*: All the tweet mentions on Indian elections, parties & politicians were tracked from Twitter using Simplify360 tool.    
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