Cynefin iscram summer_school

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Cynefin iscram summer_school

  1. 1. Cynefin, Knowledge Management and Research Simon French simon.french@warwick.ac.uk
  2. 2. Research projects differ (Social)• Some seek to explore issues Sciences – field studies vs laboratory studies• Some seek to confirm or disprove hypotheses – field studies vs laboratory studies• Some seek to critically evaluate an area• Some seek to solve a problem and implement a solution• Some design and implement new systems• Some seek to develop new theory or Engineering & algorithms mathematics 2
  3. 3. Cynefin: a Welsh habitatCynefin: Complex• physical environment• cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be• social environment determined after the event The realm of• historical environment Scientific Inquiry• ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernableD. Snowden (2002). Known"Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientificparadox and descriptive self- Knowledgeawareness." Journal of Cause and effect understoodKnowledge Management 6 and predicablepp. 100-11.
  4. 4. Cynefin: a Welsh habitatCynefin: Complex• physical environment• cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be• social environment determined after the event The realm of• historical environment Scientific Inquiry• ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernableD. Snowden (2002). Known"Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientificparadox and descriptive self- Knowledgeawareness." Journal of Cause and effect understoodKnowledge Management 6 and predicablepp. 100-11.
  5. 5. Cynefin: a Welsh habitatCynefin: Complex• physical environment• cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be• social environment determined after the event The realm of• historical environment Scientific Inquiry• ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernableD. Snowden (2002). Known"Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientificparadox and descriptive self- Knowledgeawareness." Journal of Cause and effect understoodKnowledge Management 6 and predicablepp. 100-11.
  6. 6. Cynefin: a Welsh habitatCynefin: Complex• physical environment• cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be• social environment determined after the event The realm of• historical environment Scientific Inquiry• ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernableD. Snowden (2002). Known"Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientificparadox and descriptive self- Knowledgeawareness." Journal of Cause and effect understoodKnowledge Management 6 and predicablepp. 100-11.
  7. 7. Cynefin: a Welsh habitatCynefin: Complex• physical environment• cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be• social environment determined after the event The realm of• historical environment Scientific Inquiry• ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernableD. Snowden (2002). Known"Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientificparadox and descriptive self- Knowledgeawareness." Journal of Cause and effect understoodKnowledge Management 6 and predicablepp. 100-11.
  8. 8. Cynefin: a Welsh habitatCynefin: Complex• physical environment• cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be• social environment determined after the event The realm of• historical environment Scientific Inquiry• ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernableD. Snowden (2002). Known"Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientificparadox and descriptive self- Knowledgeawareness." Journal of Cause and effect understoodKnowledge Management 6 and predicablepp. 100-11.
  9. 9. A conventional view ofemergency management Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  10. 10. A conventional view ofemergency management Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  11. 11. What can we learn from the past?
  12. 12. Chernobyl ComplexThe realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  13. 13. Three Mile Island ComplexThe realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  14. 14. More generally Complex The realm of Social Systems KnowableRecovery The realm of Scientific Inquiry Response Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Threat
  15. 15. Knowledge Management and Nonaka’s SECI Externalisation tacit explicit knowledge knowledgeSocialisation Combination Internalisation
  16. 16. Cynefin and Knowledge Management Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be determined after the event The realm of Scientific Inquiry Combination Cause and effect can Socialisation be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood and predicable Explicit Knowledge Data/Information Tacit Knowledge Management Collaboration tools
  17. 17. Applications of Cynefin• Emergency Management• Categorisation of DSS and OR/DA techniques• Human Reliability Analysis• High Reliability Organisations• Knowledge Management• Sensemaking• Research Methodology
  18. 18. Cynefin: learning, repeatability Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be determined after the event The realm of Scientific Inquiry Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood Repeatability and predicable and increasing familiarity
  19. 19. Cynefin and data collection Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be determined after the event The realm of Scientific Inquiry Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood and predicable
  20. 20. Cynefin and statistics Complex The realm of Social Systems Unique Knowable Cause and effect may be determined after the event The realm of events Scientific Inquiry Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient dataCause and effect not discernableEvents? Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood and predicable
  21. 21. So ...... why do we see so many articles insocial science and management journalsdealing with issues that are clearly in thecomplex space but using confirmatorymethods: – Analysis of variance/covariance – Structural equation modelling – Precise p-values – ...
  22. 22. Cynefin and Values Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be Unique determined after the event The realm of Scientific Inquiry events Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable KnownEvents? The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood and predicable
  23. 23. Thank you
  24. 24. Complexity vs Complicated• Confusingly complexity science does not relate primarily to the complex space!• It is about computationally intensive models: i.e. complicated models Models understanding cause and effect• So complexity science applies to the knowable space much more than the complex space.
  25. 25. Human Reliability Modelling Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  26. 26. High reliability organisations Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  27. 27. Do preferences exist?• DeFinetti famously said – “Probabilities do not exist”• Do preferences exist?• or better – When do preferences come into existence?
  28. 28. Cynefin and decision making Complex probe, The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be sense, determined after the event The realm of respond Scientific Inquiry Cause and effect can Sense, be determined with analyse Chaotic sufficient data and Cause and effectact not discernable respondsenserespond Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood and predicable categorise and respond
  29. 29. ComplexLevel 0: soft OR, PSM, EDA, EIS, data- miningLevel 1: expert judgementLevel 2: scenario planningLevel 3: simpler MCDM models, Knowable simpler decision trees, influence diagrams Level 0: databases, MIS Level 1: statistical inference, Level 0: Acquisition, checking and forecasting presentation of data, Chaotic Level 2: OR models e.g. LP directly or with minimal simulation analysis, to DMsLevel 0: exploration, }{ Level 3: decision trees,Level 1: trial and error, Level 1: Analysis and forecasting of influence diagramsLevel 2: building the current and futureLevel 3: hypotheses. environment. Known Level 2: Simulation and analysis of the consequences of Level 0: database systems potential strategies; Level 1: forecasting determination of their Level 2: simulation feasibility and quantification Level 3: AI, e.g. expert systems, neural nets of their benefits and disadvantages. Data and model based systems Level 3: Evaluation and ranking of (cf. combination cycle of SECI) alternative strategies in theCollaboration face of uncertainty bytools, GDSS, decision balancing their respectiveconferencing, etc. benefits and disadvantages.(cf. socialisation cycle of SECI)

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