Overview of Drug Discovery and Pharmaceuticals

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Overview of Drug Discovery and Pharmaceuticals

  1. 1. Overview of Drug Discovery and Pharmaceuticals Yasmin Crawford, C.E.O
  2. 2. Global Pharma Sales growth in single digits through to 2009  Constrained by payers and providers as they grapple with ageing population  Supported by more cautious/sceptical regulators  With increasing patient acceptance of generics  Except in areas of specific unmet medical need supported by evidence based medicine  More scrutiny of products pre and post launch  US is critical to the success but increasingly susceptible to cost containment with Medicare
  3. 3. World Pharma Market  10 major markets support World 600 growth above 6% Market Sales 500 North  US will continue to America dominate but with lower 400 growth Europe 300  Major driver for growth still 200 Japan volume 100 Asia/Africa 0 /Australia Billions $ Growth % Latin America
  4. 4. Drug Discovery  Fewer NCEs launched to market! 2004 (30) 2007 (<20)  Approx 8000 active products in preclinical to phase IV  1600 oncology products in registration in US 2006, Phases I- IV  GSK (~130) and Sanofi Aventis (~110) hold the largest number of molecules under R&D  Biotechnology accounts for over 25% of the product pipeline  Few blockbusters across therapeutic segments  Markets changing towards technological improvements  Acquisition of smaller specialist companies  Manufacturing forced to tailor their capabilities *adapted from IMS data 2005
  5. 5. Biological Industry ripe for attack!  Global Biotech Market tops $45billion 18  Fastest Growing sector 16  Makes up 25% of pharma 14 Total R&D portfolio 12 Market  Launch of first EPO biosimilar 10 Biotech June 2007 8 Fixed  Pathway to approve 6 Comb biosimilars launched in the 4 Generics US in June 2007 *Based on 8 Generics 2 Markets(IMS) 0 Growth %
  6. 6. Generic Injectable Market, an opportunity  Overall Hospital sector main growth driver from 2005  Generics in Europe capture 60% of branded sales in 6months for off patent molecules  Global Generic Market $45billion  European Market expected to boom to $35.9billion by 2013  Western European Injectable Market, €3billion  5 Major Markets - UK 24%, FR 23%, GE 17%, IT & SP11%  Largest therapeutic areas, Oncology 29%, infection 26%, Cardiology 11% Pain 9%  Generic Sales will rise at least at 10% per year  80% Rx written generically in the UK  Overall generic growth rising at 15% at least twice that of the branded market  Improved regulation speeds product to market and allows development whilst the patent is still enforced
  7. 7. Major pending Patent Expiry, examples  Oncologics  Irinotecan (2009),Gemcitabine (2009), Docetaxol (2009  Biologics  EPO (launched 2007), G-CSF (2008/9), Copegus (2009), Humira (2013), Enbrel (2015)  Anti-infectives  Meropenem (May 2009), Moxifloxacin (2014)  Anaesthetics  Desflurane (2009), Ropivacaine (2010)  Others  Tacrolimus (2009), Quetiapine (2012)
  8. 8. Investment Opportunities  Small molecules  Re-Formulation/Re-Packaging  Niche Products  Hospital Products  New proven Technologies  Bioequivalence reduced patient numbers  Time to market shorter  Improved Regulation  New line extensions  Products withdrawn from the market  More flexible Manufacturing available
  9. 9. Types of investments and Listed Successes  Most recent acquisitions in the generics industry…  Matrix invested in Focus pharmaceuticals, mainly tablet generic pharma company for £3.2m, debt & equity(~11%)  Generic Trade sales made by Indian Companies for Distribution routes into Europe and UK  Typical Generic pharma P/E ratios are 20-30x, Hikma plc (LSE) trades at 29x, Teva (NYSE) 20x  Larger pharma acquiring technology and more specialist niche R&D companies
  10. 10. 2009 and on….  China moves into top 10 markets  Blockbuster numbers growing for niche markets that do not require mass marketing efforts  Expansion of Medicare will bring cost benefit to centre stage  Parallel import trade has slowed in Europe and the USA but whilst price variation exists there is a possibility of renewed growth, providing there is efficient supply chain management.  Major generics start to cannibalise other brands in class in Europe so all products in class at risk ?
  11. 11. Elegant Science, is it enough?  Payers want clear directional evidence that links cost:benefit to appropriate targets  Providers want clarity and simplicity as well as player endorsement  Patients will want proof that polypharmacy is safe  Pharma needs to improve its credibility and tolerate generics  Communication amongst all players will take a quantum leap of faith!
  12. 12. Overview of Drug Discovery & Pharmaceuticals Yasmin Crawford, C.E.O

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