Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Patterns of Successful Angel Investing by Simeon Simeonov

8,483

Published on

Sim Simeonov's presentation from Angel Bootcamp 2011 teaches lessons for successful angel investing based on statistical analysis of thousands of angel investments over a twenty year period. For more …

Sim Simeonov's presentation from Angel Bootcamp 2011 teaches lessons for successful angel investing based on statistical analysis of thousands of angel investments over a twenty year period. For more info, see http://sim.vc/angels

Published in: Economy & Finance
3 Comments
34 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Nice presentation. For angel investor rookies, I prepared a short presentation on deciding on angel investing and selecting & supporting entrepreneurs. I would like to get comments & feedback to improve the presentation. How do you explain angel investing to angel rookies? Thanks in advance. http://www.slideshare.net/msubasi/angel-investing-png
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • I wonder if the concentration of exits amongst a few angels has changed at all due to angel list
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • so cool
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
No Downloads
Views
Total Views
8,483
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
16
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
3
Likes
34
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Data-Driven Patterns forSuccessful Angel InvestingSim Simeonovsim@fastignite.com@simeons
  • 2. Founding. Funding.Growing. Startups.
  • 3. Have fun & make $$$
  • 4. 58 % IRR
  • 5. Cash-on-Cash 3.2x
  • 6. 66% lose money
  • 7. 45% total loss
  • 8. What determines investment success?
  • 9. quality deal flow picking winners winning the dealmarket environment
  • 10. Can you pick winners?
  • 11. If you can have asymmetric information most of the time, ignore the advice here
  • 12. quality deal flow picking winners winning the dealmarket environment
  • 13. investment optionalitydollar cost averaging
  • 14. be a player investment optionality dollar cost averagingplay a lot
  • 15. Angel Investment Returns AnalysisIngredients Instructions• Kaufmann angel 1. Clean data return data set 2. Analyze data set• Additional data 3. Reverse-engineer from angels returns probabilityTools distribution• Big data kitchen 4. Do Monte Carlo 5. Adjust & repeat #4 for all interesting questions
  • 16. Two things you don’twant to see made:sausage & econometrics
  • 17. The end result, however…
  • 18. 100%80% >10x60% 5-10x 3-5x40% 2-3x 1-2x20% <1x 0% % of % of % of % of Angels deals $inv $return
  • 19. Monte Carlo results
  • 20. 100% Portfolio 75% Size Size PortfolioP(return > X), % 5 10 25 50% 50 100 25% 0% 0x 2x 4x 6x 8x 10x Cash-on-Cash Return
  • 21. Why do a few angels get the lion’s share of returns?
  • 22. Lucky? Smart?
  • 23. Portfolio SizeP(return > X), % 15% 200% 5 10 25 50 100 Portfolio Size 10% 5% 0% 5x 6x 7x 8x 9x 10x Cash-on-Cash Return
  • 24. Answer: most likely luck
  • 25. 100% Portfolio 200% Size Size PortfolioP(return>X), % 75% 5 10 25 50 50% 100 25% 0x 1x 2x 3x 4x Cash-on-Cash Return
  • 26. Does the lean startup movement benefit angel investors?
  • 27. P(failure) reduced from 60% to 50%125%100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 5 10 20 25 50 100 DiffP(x > 1) DiffP(x > 2) DiffP(x > 3)
  • 28. Answer: yes but very active angels get disproportionate benefits
  • 29. What’s the effect of big bets?
  • 30. 50x vs. 1000x returns cap80%60%40%20% 0% 5 10 20 25 50 100 DiffP(x > 1) DiffP(x > 2) DiffP(x > 3)
  • 31. 20% 50x cap, 55% fail vs.10% 1000x cap, 60% fail 0% 5 10 20 25 50 100-10%-20% DiffP(x > 1) DiffP(x > 2) DiffP(x > 3)
  • 32. Answer: big bets make the most sense for very active angels
  • 33. Be an active angel.Benefit from: - portfolio effects - lean startup ecosystem - making big bets
  • 34. Be a selective angel.Focus on: - information asymmetry - low-failure opportunities - price
  • 35. Econometrician seeksangel investor data for discrete long-term relationship and intense anything-goes analysis.Must be clean and BS-free. http://sim.vc/angels

×