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8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09
 

8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09

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    8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09 8_Allen Cd Jornadas Cambio Global 09 Presentation Transcript

    • Actuaciones específicas de gestión para la adaptación Craig D. Allen USGS Jemez Mountains Field Station Bandelier National Monument Los Alamos, New Mexico Western Mountain Initiative
    • Further rapid warming projected
    • Efectos ecologicos del cambio climático – Sierra Nevada, octubre 2005 Andalucia Fuego Presa baja, sur de Portugal, octubre 2005 Sierra Nevada, octubre 2005 Sequia Erosion
    • Pinus sylvestris, en Sierra Nevada 2006 Quercus ilex, en Sierra Nevada 2006 Mortalidad de arboles Efectos ecologicos del cambio climático – Andalucia Pinus sylvestris, en Sierra de Filabres – foto: Rafael Navarro
    • Climate Summits… Yeah, right ! and this is the 14th already.. And you worse ! You even more ! Get out of here !
    • No action in the face of climate change is a decision that may carry the greatest risk.
    • But, what actions should we take? Do we have science-based, practical options for directly managing ecosystems in flux, to adapt to climate change? Vamos, vamos - uno, u otro…
    • A scientific basis for developing adaptation options US Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4 (SAP 4.4) Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources National Forests National Parks National Wildlife Refuges Wild and Scenic Rivers National Estuaries Marine Protected Areas Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
    • Adapting to Climate Change in US National Forests Geoffrey M. Blate*, Linda Joyce, Susan Julius, Jeremy Littell, Steve McNulty, Connie Millar, Susi Moser, Ron Nielson, Kathy O’Hallaran, Dave Peterson, and Jordan West August 2008
    • Synthesis for USFS - Overall Findings Adaptation options for managing for resilience General Approaches Examples Protect key ecosystem features Facilitate dispersal Reduce anthropogenic stressors Prevent invasives; reduce pollution Representation Increase genetic / habitat diversity Replication Protect replicate populations Restoration Use natives post-disturbance Refugia ID / protect refugia for at-risk species Relocation Assist species migrations
    • Confronting Climate Change Will Require Coordination & Collaboration Multiple jurisdictions across large landscapes
    • Managing in the Face of Change A Toolbox of Options Adaptation Strategies: Practice Resistance Increase Resilience Allow Forests to Respond Realign Highly Altered Ecosystems
    • Management - Research Dialogue Assessments – Tools - Practices No Advance Planning Be Proactive: for climate change Plan in Advance React after Disturbance or Extreme Events
    • Management - Research Dialogue Assessments – Tools - Practices No Advance Planning Be Proactive: for climate change Plan in Advance React after Disturbance or Extreme Events
    • Adapting to Climate Change through Science-Management Partnerships Dave Peterson US Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station
    • General adaptation strategies Implement adaptive management Incorporate uncertainty in science and management View ecological disturbance as an opportunity Work with your neighbors – collaborate with other organizations
    • General adaptation strategies Implement adaptive management Incorporate uncertainty in science and management View ecological disturbance as an opportunity Work with your neighbors – collaborate with other organizations
    • Adaptation strategy #1 Increase landscape diversity Increase resilience at large scales --Treatments and spatial configurations that minimize loss of large number of structural and functional groups Increase size of management units -- Much larger treatments and age/structural classes Increase connectivity
    • Adaptation strategy #2 Maintain biological diversity Modify genetic guidelines Experiment with mixed species, mixed genotypes Assist colonization, establish neo-native species Identify species, populations, and communities that are sensitive to increased disturbance
    • Adaptation strategy #3 Plan for post-disturbance management: Treat fire and other ecological disturbance as normal, periodic occurrences Incorporate fire management and other disturbance options in land management policies and plans
    • Adaptation strategy #4 Reduce non-climatic sources of stress Implement early detection/rapid response to control exotic species Reduce sources of air pollution, toxins, erosion, etc. to the extent possible
    • Adaptation strategy #5 Manage for realistic outcomes Identify key thresholds for species Critical Threshold Temperature Increase and processes. Climate Climatic Variability Determine which thresholds will be Time exceeded (e.g., salmon & cold water). Prioritize projects with high probability of success; abandon hopeless causes (triage).
    • Adaptation strategy #6 Incorporate climate change in restoration Reduce emphasis on historical references Reduce use of guidelines based on static relationships (e.g., plant associations)
    • Advice from “The Great One” quot;I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.quot; ─ Wayne Gretzky
    • quot;I run to where the ball is going to be, not to where it has been.quot; ─ Fernando Torres
    • Adaptation strategy #7 Anticipate big surprises Expect mega-droughts, larger fires, system collapses, species extirpations, etc. Incorporate these phenomena in planning
    • Current thinking often emphasizes gradual changes. Climate Time Ecosystem state Time Nate Stephenson
    • However, abrupt climatic change can lead to abrupt ecosystem change. Climate Time Ecosystem state Time Nate Stephenson
    • However, gradual climatic change may trigger abrupt ecosystem change (threshold response). Climate Time Ecosystem state Time Nate Stephenson
    • Lessons Learned – Keys for Success • Start with this premise: Managers produce the adaptation options • Establish a strong science-management collaboration • Provide scientific documentation to support adaptation strategies • Customize the adaptation process for preferences by resource managers • Include stakeholders and the general public in the adaptation process Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
    • Lessons Learned – Keys for Success • Start with this premise: Managers produce the adaptation options • Establish a strong science-management collaboration • Provide scientific documentation to support adaptation strategies • Customize the adaptation process for preferences by resource managers • Include stakeholders and the general public in the adaptation process Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
    • Another example, involving multiple land managers: Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Cross et al, in review
    • Select Target + Define Management Objective Yellowstone River flows (ecological process) To maintain Yellowstone cutthroat trout
    • forest agricultural CONCEPTUAL management practices MODEL wildfire withdrawals flood plain (agri., urban) upland forest condition type/structure urban growth Yellowstone River impervious flows temperature + quantity, quality, timing surfaces precipitation riparian beaver snowpack cover groundwater grazing practices
    • forest agricultural INITIAL CLIMATE management practices SCENARIO wildfire withdrawals flood plain (agri., urban) upland forest condition type/structure urban growth Yellowstone River impervious flows warmer, drier, quantity, quality, timing surfaces earlier spring riparian beaver snowpack cover groundwater grazing practices
    • forest agricultural INITIAL CLIMATE management practices SCENARIO wildfire withdrawals ∆ flood plain (agri., urban) upland forest condition type/structure urban + ? growth ∆ Lower baseflows Warmer water temps impervious warmer, drier, - Earlier spring peak surfaces earlier spring Lower water O2 - - -? ? riparian beaver snowpack cover -? groundwater grazing practices -
    • INTERVENTION forest agricultural practices POINTS management wildfire withdrawals flood plain (agri., urban) upland forest condition type/structure urban growth Yellowstone River impervious flows temperature + quantity, quality, timing surfaces precipitation riparian beaver snowpack cover groundwater grazing practices
    • Intervention Points Potential Actions Desired Responses Purchase water rights Reduce Withdrawals withdrawals Water conservation Snowpack Increase local High flows Build snow fences management snowpack High elevation Install check dams Increase rain Peaked streamflow retention hydrograph Beaver Reintroduce beaver populations Maintain Reduce / remove roads water quality Impervious surfaces Decrease Reduce livestock sedimentation Maintain density Grazing appropriate practices water T Fence riparian areas Increase Riparian riparian shading vegetation Restore riparian vegetation
    • Interagency collaboration Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park are developing a climate- change vulnerability assessment and adaptation options for the Olympic Peninsula • Water • Vegetation • Fisheries • Wildlife • Roads and infrastructure Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
    • WESTERN MOUNTAIN INITIATIVE Understand and predict responses of Western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change – Collaborative research among: USGS, USFS, NPS, USA universities, + international Univ Alicante Sierra Nevada, UGR
    • Mi paisaje, Sierra Jemez, en Nuevo Mexico. Trabajo en un parque nacional, Bandelier National Monument.
    • Fuego Mortalidad Erosion Efectos ecologicos del cambio climático – Nuevo Mexico
    • Pinus edulis muriendo (roja) Sierra Jemez, October 2002
    • Despues 18 meses… Sierra Jemez, May 2004
    • Jemez Mts. salamanders (endemic) don’t know about our land boundaries…. Plethodon neomexicanum
    • Elk radiotelemetry locations in 2000, 2002 – they don’t care about land boundaries either
    • 1954 American Springs Fire 1977 La Mesa Fire 1996 Dome Fire 1998 Oso Complex Fire 1910-1996 other fires 2000 Cerro Grande Fire
    • Cerro Grande Fire, May 2000 Interaction: Post-Fire Erosion.
    • Reduced surface cover, increasing bare soil connectivity can lead to: Threshold response - increased erosion Soil Erosion Behavior Decreasing Erosion Decreasing Cover
    • Uncertainty: Disturbance Interactions • Interactions among dieback, insects, fire, and erosion can amplify the individual disturbance processes. • Predicted climate changes could further accelerate these disturbance processes.
    • EROSION FOREST FIRE DROUGHT
    • Despite uncertainties, together we can take management actions to better resist and adjust to climate stresses…
    • E.g., forest fuel structures also drive higher severity fire in some forest types
    • So, we can reduce forest densities with combinations of mechanical thinning and prescribed fire.
    • There is good evidence that some types of forest treatments in forests can mitigate climate-related wildfire events.
    • So, the need, and opportunity, exists here for collaborative, landscape-scale management….
    • Mechanical treatments are now being applied at broad scales. These can also have other ecosystem benefits, e.g., coarse mulching with woody debris increases surface cover and infiltration capacity, leading to increased herbaceous growth.
    • E.g., Bandelier’s ongoing piñon-juniper woodland restoration project…
    • Antes -
    • Despues…
    • Restored woodland at Bandelier, now more resilient to drought and fire.
    • Active crown fires burn explosively, primarily in canopy needles and twigs, <1 cm diameter, leaving scorched trunks and branches unconsumed. So, crown fire risks probably decrease once dead needles drop. Post-crown Post-dieback fire
    • high FIRE HAZARD Canopy Fire Surface Fire Dead trees start to fall, Herb and shrub and Live Dieback, Dead needles off trees, tree regrowth, Coarse woody low stressed dead needles Surface fine fuels , forest on dead trees More exposed site surface fuels TIME
    • Partial forest die-back = natural thinning - might be beneficial for some forests… - increased resilience to further mortality - reduced crown fire risk
    • Fuego, Sierra Nevada, septiembre 2005 Cooperative Post-Fire Research Project, en Parque Nacional Sierra Nevada: -Univ. de Granada (Dr. Jorge Castro, Dr. Regino Zamora); -the Direction of the Natural and National Parks of Sierra Nevada; - the Consejería de Medio Ambiente of Granada (Junta de Andalucía); -Empresa de Gestión Medio Ambiental S.A. (EGMASA); - USGS.
    • Post-fire experimental treatments: - salvage cut + chip ESL - partial cut, leave branches PCL - control, non-intervention NI
    • Post-fire experimental treatments:
    • Post-fire experimental treatments:
    • Initial results: Better tree regeneration (P. pinaster), higher biodiversity (e.g., plants, birds), in partial cutting with coarse slash left, or no intervention.
    • Lots of useful climate change adaptation resources online, for example: Natural Resources Canada: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/synth/adapt_e.php USFS Climate Change Resource Center website: http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/
    • Nosotros necesitamos arreglarlo…
    • Think Globally, Act Locally -- Together… Together There’s no place like home… While everyone is a citizen of the Earth, we all call a local landscape “home”. Our shared home landscapes are the best place to engage students and the public, and are essential places to learn and work together to address the challenges of climate change.
    • Gracias !
    • We can and must learn together through science and adaptive resource management – MNDDB’s !!!
    • White dots indicate documented localities with increased forest mortality related to climatic stress from drought and high temperatures. Background map shows potential limits to vegetation net primary production (Boisvenue and Running 2006). Allen et al – in review