6_Baron J Jornadas Cambio Global 09
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6_Baron J Jornadas Cambio Global 09 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Nuevas herramientas heurísticas de gestión para reflexionar y actuar. Planificación de escenarios
  • 2. Philosophy for adaptation: The onset and continuance of climate change over the next century requires natural resource managers to think differently about management than they have in the past. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as it is an scientific one. p. 4-6 CCSP 4.4
  • 3. No action in the face of climate change is a decision that may carry the greatest risk. Western Governors’ Association 2008
  • 4. Three tenets to underpin management 1) Climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future 2) Climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats 3) Specific management actions may help increase resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable.
  • 5. Climate change effects occur in addition to contemporary resource problems Complexity: – Interactions already occur among stressors • Altered Disturbance Regimes • Habitat Fragmentation/Loss • Invasive Species • Pollution Climate change will alter our ability to manage all of the above
  • 6. Adapting to Climate Change: Attending to the Resources • Identify resources and processes at risk from climate change • Identify climate-related thresholds • Define reference conditions for protection or restoration • Develop monitoring and assessment programs for resources and processes at risk from climate change
  • 7. Adapting to Climate Change: Attending to the Institutions •Develop and implement management strategies for adaptation –Diversify portfolio of management approaches –Accelerate capacity for learning –Assess, plan, and manage at multiple scales •Let the issues define appropriate scales of time and space •Form partnerships with other organizations –Reduce other human-caused stress to ecosystems –Nurture and cultivate human and natural capital
  • 8. Adapting to Climate Change • Come to Terms With Uncertainty • Incorporate Climate Change Considerations – into Routine Operations – into Natural Resource Management
  • 9. Coming to Terms with Uncertainty • Social Uncertainty • Scientific Uncertainty
  • 10. Value Social Capital • Resource management advances by incremental learning and gradual achievement of goals • There are gradients between success and failure, with learning along the way • As climate changes, even the most well- reasoned actions have some potential to go awry and lead to failure • Protect and reward the wisdom and experience of front line managers NPS has tried many ways to eradicate feral hogs, and failed often.
  • 11. What’s a manager to do?! “Never, ever, think outside the box.”
  • 12. Scientific Uncertainty • Foreseeable changes • Imaginable changes • Unknown, surprising changes
  • 13. Where will the largest (snowmelt) temperature effects occur? How many days/year historically were just below freezing? Less vulnerable More vulnerable “Duration of Snowpack” Computed from UW’s VIC model daily INPUTS (Bales et al, in press)
  • 14. Expected changes in FROZEN-SEASON LENGTH 30-60 days/year less in 2050 for ROMO 2050 Derived from monthly IPCC GCM-grid pdfs, and UW’s VIC model daily inputs, 1950-1999
  • 15. Large wildfires increased suddenly and dramatically in mid-1980s in West • More large wildfires • Longer wildfire durations • Longer wildfire seasons • Strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt Westerling et al. 2006
  • 16. Scientific Uncertainty • Foreseeable changes • Imaginable changes • Unknown, surprising changes November 2006 Flood Pacific NW
  • 17. Scientific Uncertainty • Foreseeable changes • Imaginable changes • Unknown, surprising changes
  • 18. Approaches to Management Uncertainty Given Uncertainty HIGH Adaptive Scenario Management Planning Optimal Hedging LOW Control CONTROLLABLE UNCONTROLLABLE Controllability
  • 19. Optimal Control and Hedging • Work best when uncertainty is low – Optimal Control examples: fire management, wildlife management Elk management in ROMO Large woody debris replacement may involve culling may improve fish habitat
  • 20. Adaptive Management • Treats management activities as hypotheses – Accepts there is uncertainty – Emphasizes learning through experiments and management • Most successful when there is sufficient ecological resilience to accommodate mistakes • AND where there is institutional willingness to experiment for the purpose of learning – Requires trust, cooperation, other forms of social capital
  • 21. Scenario-Based Planning • Brainstorming alternative, but plausible, futures – Incorporates ideas of complexity – Assigns probabilities of occurrence – Forces consideration of low probability but high risk scenarios • Stories informed by data and experts • Benefits from outside views and perceptions • Can be quantitative or qualitative
  • 22. E
  • 23. High-Level Climate Change Scenario Framework Broad Understanding Heightened Urgency Riots and Revolution Big Problems, Big Solutions At a time of growing social concerns and fear Coordinated action around the world as climate about the impacts of climate change, change (and its effects on weather, resources Degree of governments and political leaders are unable to and people) becomes seen as an increasingly articulate a coherent set of policies and urgent and widespread challenge. Political approaches. The result? Growing public unease, leaders initiate bold decisions and policies to and movements to overturn existing systems and mitigate the worst, and adapt to the inevitabilities structures. of climate change effects Lack of senior commitment Senior commitment Varied approaches and International alignment alignment Nature of Leadership Long-term perspectives Societal Concern Short-term concerns Wheel-Spinning Is Anyone Out There? Despite growing scientific evidence that has To the frustration of many, climate change convinced leaders across the world, climate becomes a variable concern that is often ignored change remains a remote concern for the by political and business leaders. Scientific majority of everyday people. Consumers and consensus breaks down, other societal businesses rail against carbon caps and prices, challenges loom large, meaning that climate claiming them to be “just another tax” imposed by change is seldom on the front pages, or in the the elite. forefront of political and business leaders’ minds Widespread indifference Competing concerns
  • 24. Wind Cave Precipitation seasonality shifts so that winter to summer ratio increases. Summer events are National Park more intense and less frequent Novel Ecosystem Shrubland Climate changes quickly to something like SW U.S. Shrubs and/or subshrubs replace grasses in and species migration cannot keep up. SW U.S. grassland because soil water is deeper; becomes species increase; tallgrass, northern species more susceptible to annual grass (and other?) decrease. Pine decreases substantially because of invaders. Fate of pines and other trees uncertain. low regeneration, especially if crown fire occurs Soil erosion increases. Water table and streamflow (which is more likely). Water table drops; streams go depend on winter precip. Faunal composition from perennial to intermittent or gone. Soil erosion changes (e.g., browsers up, grazers down). increases. Many animals die off. Total precip and inter- annual variability similar to Today’s “moderate” historic records. Drought droughts become the norm events/impacts intensified and today’s “extreme” by increasing temperatures. droughts become more common. Base Case Shortgrass Prairie Increased ET decreases plant Climate like NE Colorado. Short, warm- productivity. Ecosystem change season grasses increase, taller and cool- occurs, but overall tendency is for season grasses decrease. Forest more change to occur more slowly than in restricted by moisture than currently. other scenarios. Ecosystems may Megafauna capacity decreases; forage have more time to adapt, but production lower. Water table drops; spring possibility of rapid change driven by and stream flow decreases or ceases. extreme events. Precipitation seasonality, intensity, and frequency change little from historical patterns.
  • 25. Approaches to Management Uncertainty Given Uncertainty HIGH Adaptive Scenario Management Planning Optimal Hedging LOW Control CONTROLLABLE UNCONTROLLABLE Controllability
  • 26. Climate Change: Coming to a Resource Near You! Time to make a plan
  • 27. Philosophy for adaptation: The onset and continuance of climate change over the next century requires natural resource managers to think differently about management than they have in the past. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as it is an ecological one. p. 4-6 CCSP 4.4
  • 28. Adapting to Climate Change: Attending to the Resources Attending to the Institutions • Let scientific knowledge guide management • Reduce other human-caused stress to ecosystems • Broaden set of management approaches • Let issues, not political boundaries, define the management scales
  • 29. Adapting to Climate Change: Attending to the Institutions •Develop and implement management strategies for adaptation –Diversify portfolio of management approaches –Accelerate capacity for learning –Assess, plan, and manage at multiple scales •Let the issues define appropriate scales of time and space •Form partnerships with other organizations –Reduce other human-caused stress to ecosystems –Nurture and cultivate human and natural capital
  • 30. Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research http://www.climatescience.gov/
  • 31. STOP GLOBAL WARMING!!