2011 Expectations for the Belgian ICT Sector

2,318
-1

Published on

0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
2,318
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

2011 Expectations for the Belgian ICT Sector

  1. 1. Agoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  2. 2. Agoria ICT Winter Network Event Prospects for the Belgian ICT Sector in 2011 Siddy Jobe (+32 2 287 92 79) Siddy.Jobe@degroof.be Twitter: @siddyjobeAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  3. 3. Managing the future Bank Degroof is Belgium’s premier independent private and investment bank, with an excellent reputation in each of its fields of activity. For 140 years it has been the reference institution for private and professional customers. Always at your side, its specialists offer a complete range of tailored solutions and services: asset management, financial markets, corporate finance, credit and structured finance, real estate activities, financial analysis as well as setup and administration of investment funds. To make sure you enjoy tomorrow as much as today. The Bank has nearly one thousand employees managing their customers’ future from offices in six countries. In Belgium: Antwerp-Brussels-Charleroi-Kortrijk-Ghent-Hasselt- Knokke-Liège-Namur-Wavre. European research coverage through European Securities Network Voted “Best Private Banking Services Overall in Belgium” by EuromoneyAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  4. 4. References IT & Telecom (1/2) Sale of ESKO Public take over bid has acquired 100% of the shares of on Carve-Out of the Infrastructure Activities to through Management Buy-Out ARTWORK SYSTEMS Financial Adviser to the Buyers Financial Adviser to the Sellers Financial Adviser to Esko Financial Adviser to the Sellers December 2010 September 2007 July 2007 June 2007 Public take-over bid by Fairness opinion regarding has been acquired by Initial Public Offering Independent expert opinion the public takeover bid by on Alternext Brussels regarding debt conversion into equity on all shares and warrants Co-Lead Manager Financial Adviser to the seller Financial Advisor to Telindus October 2006 September 2006 April 2006 January 2006 December 2005Agoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  5. 5. References IT & Telecom (2/2) Sale of distribution, maintenance and development of "IBBA" Product Initial Public Offering to Initial Public Offering Initial Public Offering on Euronext Brussels on Euronext Brussels Sale of FLV Funds investment portfolio on Euronext Brussels Selling Agent Financial Adviser to the seller Selling Agent Financial Adviser to the seller Selling Agent November 2005 June 2005 October 2005 January 2005 March 2004 Fairness opinion regarding the public takeover bid on Ubizen by Ubidco December 2003Agoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  6. 6. Sell-Side AnalystAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  7. 7. Macro EconomicsAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  8. 8. Positive GDP growth in the last 6 quarters … • Belgium only released 3 negative GDP growth figures (Q3 2008 to Q1 2009) Real GDP, qoq annualized during the crisis compared to 5 for the 15% EMU zone (Q2 2008 to Q2 2009) 10% • The last two GDP figures came out 5% slightly higher than the EMU zone 0% average -5% • Mainly due to better domestic demand -10% and net exports Real GDP, yoy -15% 8% 06/95 06/96 06/97 06/98 06/99 06/00 06/01 06/02 06/03 06/04 06/05 06/06 06/07 06/08 06/09 06/10 6% EMU zone Belgium 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 03/96 03/97 03/98 03/99 03/00 03/01 03/02 03/03 03/04 03/05 03/06 03/07 03/08 03/09 03/10 EMU zone Belgium Source: DatatstreamAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  9. 9. … leading to a reduction of negative output gap Output Gap (in %age of GDP) 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E EMU Belgium • EMU zone output gap is strongly affected by the actual large output gaps in peripheral countries Source: IMFAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  10. 10. Growth prospects remain moreover positive asrevealed by leading indicators Belgian leading indicator & growth 15 10% 10 8% • The increase in Belgian 5 6% business confidence has been 0 4% mainly driven by business -5 2% services and trade -10 0% -15 -2% -20 -4% • The building industry -25 -6% continues to weigh negatively -30 -8% on the index -35 -10% 06/96 06/97 06/98 06/99 06/00 06/01 06/02 06/03 06/04 06/05 06/06 06/07 06/08 06/09 06/10 BNB index Real GDP, qoq annualized (RHS) EU leading indicators & growth 68 10% 8% 63 6% 58 4% 2% 53 0% 48 -2% 43 -4% -6% 38 -8% 33 -10% 0/ 8 0/ 9 0/ 0 0/ 1 0/ 2 0/ 3 0/ 4 0/ 5 0/ 6 0/ 7 0/ 8 0/ 9 0/ 0 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 GDP, qoq (annualized, RHS) PMI Man. PMI Serv ices Source: DatatstreamAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  11. 11. Rebound in the worldwide trade benefits to Belgium through strong exports growth World trade volume 170 25% 20% 150 15% 130 10% 5% 110 0% 90 -5% -10% 70 -15% 50 -20% 01/92 01/93 01/94 01/95 01/96 01/97 01/98 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 World Trade volume Annual change (RHS) Exports, yoy 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 11 71 12 72 13 73 14 74 15 75 16 76 17 77 18 78 19 79 10 70 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Euro zone Belgium Source: CBP, BloombergAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  12. 12. New industrial orders solid pace of growth points towards further positive momentum in the industry Industrial orders, yoy 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 Euro area Belgium Industrial production, yoy 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 01/98 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 EMU Belgium Source: DatatstreamAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  13. 13. Consumer confidence rebound is impressive withpositive side-effects on household expenditure Consumer confidence 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 01/96 01/97 01/98 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 Belgium Euro area Belgian consumer confidence & consumption 20 8% 15 7% 10 6% 5% 5 4% 0 3% -5 2% -10 1% -15 0% -20 -1% -25 -2% -30 -3% 3 7 3 8 3 9 3 0 3 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 3 6 3 7 3 8 3 9 3 0 0 /9 0 /9 0 /9 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /0 0 /1 Consumer confidence Nominal consumption, yoy (RHS) Source: DatatstreamAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  14. 14. Labor market deterioration has been milder than in the rest of the Euro-zone Unemployment rate • Belgium has a much lower unemployment 23% rate than the peripheral countries ... 21% 19% 17% • But higher than the best European 15% countries (Austria, Germany and 13% Netherlands) 11% 9% • Measures taken to facilitate the reduction 7% of working time during the crisis explain 5% part of the resilience of the Belgian 01/95 01/96 01/97 01/98 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 unemployment rate EMU Belgium Spain Employment growth, yoy 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 02/92 02/93 02/94 02/95 02/96 02/97 02/98 02/99 02/00 02/01 02/02 02/03 02/04 02/05 02/06 02/07 02/08 02/09 02/10 Belgium EU Source: DatatstreamAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  15. 15. Inflation is on the rise driven by raw materials (energy and food) • Austerity measures taken in different CPI, yoy 7% EMU countries, low capacity utilization 6% rate and large output gap do not plead in 5% favor of strong inflation pressure in the 4% months to come. 3% 2% 1% • Actual increase mainly comes from 0% higher oil & food prices and one off -1% events such as increase in VAT in some -2% EMU countries -3% 01/97 01/98 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 Belgium EMU • Core CPIs remain at low levels. Core CPI, yoy 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 01/97 01/98 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 Belgium EMU Source: DatatstreamAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  16. 16. PPI also impacted by higher raw material prices PPI ex energy & construction, yoy 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 10/00 04/01 10/01 04/02 10/02 04/03 10/03 04/04 10/04 04/05 10/05 04/06 10/06 04/07 10/07 04/08 10/08 04/09 10/09 04/10 10/10 Belgium EMU Source: DatastreamAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  17. 17. Commodity prices 950 1600 Last 3m ar yoy month 850 GSCI 3.7% 82.0% 34.8% 1400 GSCI Energy 3.5% 84.0% 29.1% 750 GSCI Non Energy 4.1% 78.0% 47.6% GSCI Agricultural 5.9% 92.6% 64.9% GSCI Industrial Metals 2.0% 63.0% 34.0% 1200 650 GSCI Livestock 9.2% 132.2% 31.0% GSCI Precious Metals -6.5% 1.4% 28.5% 550 1000 450 800 350 600 250 400 150 50 200 02-91 02-92 02-93 02-94 02-95 02-96 02-97 02-98 02-99 02-00 02-01 02-02 02-03 02-04 02-05 02-06 02-07 02-08 02-09 02-10 02-11 GSCI GSCI Energy GSCI Non Energy Gold Bullion $/Troy Ounce (RHS)Agoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe
  18. 18. Unit labor costs remain so far under control Unit labor costs, qoq 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% 12-07 02-08 04-08 06-08 08-08 10-08 12-08 02-09 04-09 06-09 08-09 10-09 12-09 02-10 04-10 06-10 08-10 Belgium EU • Unit labor costs are actually declining in most of the countries given the relative weakness of the job market • Structural shortage of educated ICT workforce makes it an outsider Source: OECDAgoria ICT Winter Network Event – 08/02/2011 Siddy Jobe

×