Title Use of Vulnerability Indices for Agriculture S. Selvarajan B.C. Roy Mruthyunjaya National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR)

Use of Vulnerability Indices for Agriculture

S. Selvarajan

B.C. Roy

Mruthyunjaya

National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR)

Organization of the presentation Indian Agriculture, Achievements, Strengths and Challenges Dimensions of vulnerability Assessing vulnerability Need for studies on vulnerability of Indian agriculture Proposed study

Indian Agriculture, Achievements, Strengths and Challenges

Dimensions of vulnerability

Assessing vulnerability

Need for studies on vulnerability of Indian agriculture

Proposed study

Indian Agriculture Achievements FG deficiency to FG self-sufficiency Productivity led growth encompassing agriculture Expanding production base Positive impact on poverty reduction Strengths Increased per capita availability of food, outpacing population growth Diversified growth in agriculture (Milk, meat, poultry, fish) Increasing share of FG area in rabi Backward regions: new centres of growth in agriculture (WB, Raj, MP) Challenges Poverty still high (particularly in Eastern and North East India) Declining size of holding and skewed distribution of land Increased occurrence of natural hazards Emerging economic challenges (WTO, economic liberalization)

Achievements

FG deficiency to FG self-sufficiency

Productivity led growth encompassing agriculture

Expanding production base

Positive impact on poverty reduction

Strengths

Increased per capita availability of food, outpacing population growth

Diversified growth in agriculture (Milk, meat, poultry, fish)

Increasing share of FG area in rabi

Backward regions: new centres of growth in agriculture (WB, Raj, MP)

Challenges

Poverty still high (particularly in Eastern and North East India)

Declining size of holding and skewed distribution of land

Increased occurrence of natural hazards

Emerging economic challenges (WTO, economic liberalization)

Vulnerability in Agriculture: dimensions Production system : linkages between crops and livestock, trees and water-based activities. Environmental context: externalities of agricultural production or processing Horizontal links: between agriculture and natural resource management Vertical links: including input supplies (seed, agro-chemicals, labour, equipment, credit) and with processors and markets. Wider spatial links: including different levels of political and administrative responsibility. Any impact on the agriculture activities arising from natural calamities like climate variability can be fully understood only if all the dimensions, linkages and their dynamics during the occurrence of natural calamities are comprehensively analyzed.

Production system : linkages between crops and livestock, trees and water-based activities.

Environmental context: externalities of agricultural production or processing

Horizontal links: between agriculture and natural resource management

Vertical links: including input supplies (seed, agro-chemicals, labour, equipment, credit) and with processors and markets.

Wider spatial links: including different levels of political and administrative responsibility.

Any impact on the agriculture activities arising from natural calamities like climate variability can be fully understood only if all the dimensions, linkages and their dynamics during the occurrence of natural calamities are comprehensively analyzed.

Indicators Besides being amenable for measurement, the set of indicators must represent various dimensions of vulnerability such as ecology, sustainability, efficiency, equity, empowerment, food security, etc. Indicators (Few examples): Ecological security : Proportion of geographical area under forest; Irrigation rate Economic efficiency : Land productivity ; Rural infrastructure index Social equity : People below poverty line; % households below poverty line Empowerment : Female literacy ; Fertility level Food security : Per capita net production index of food with ICMR norm as base Nutrition security : Calorie intake of the lowest deciles per capita per day

Besides being amenable for measurement, the set of indicators must represent various dimensions of vulnerability such as ecology, sustainability, efficiency, equity, empowerment, food security, etc.

Indicators (Few examples):

Ecological security : Proportion of geographical area under forest; Irrigation rate

Economic efficiency : Land productivity ; Rural infrastructure index

Social equity : People below poverty line; % households below poverty line

Empowerment : Female literacy ; Fertility level

Food security : Per capita net production index of food with ICMR norm as base

Nutrition security : Calorie intake of the lowest deciles per capita per day

Existing gaps Potential interactions between the effects of climate change and ongoing economic changes are not researched. Limitations of bio-physical models and need for integrating socio-economic components. Spatial and temporal dimension of vulnerability at various layers Vulnerability as influenced by physical and socioeconomic characteristics Sensitivity and adaptive capacity

Potential interactions between the effects of climate change and ongoing economic changes are not researched.

Limitations of bio-physical models and need for integrating socio-economic components.

Spatial and temporal dimension of vulnerability at various layers

Vulnerability as influenced by physical and socioeconomic characteristics

Sensitivity and adaptive capacity

Actual evapotranspiration of crops (Eta) is one of the most important factors in all studies of agriculture, irrigation and water resource modeling studies Eta is a purely physical phenomenon, carefully defined by an elaborate set of equations. Yet using most sophisticated measuring instruments available, the mean Eta of a crop can only be measured (at 95% confidence) within a range of plus or minus 25% (Richard Allen, 1999) (As quoted in IWMI, 2000, Water Supply and Demand, Colombo, Sri Lanka) Uncertainty in Modeling

Needed study Assessing the nature of vulnerability Developing a composite index of vulnerability incorporating both bio-physical and socio-economic indicators Identifying areas, social groups or activities particularly sensitive to economic and climate changes. Measuring and evaluating the impacts of particular change (climate or economic) on different target groups Assessing the adaptation behaviors of individuals and society in the event of various climatic and economic changes

Assessing the nature of vulnerability

Developing a composite index of vulnerability incorporating both bio-physical and socio-economic indicators

Identifying areas, social groups or activities particularly sensitive to economic and climate changes.

Measuring and evaluating the impacts of particular change (climate or economic) on different target groups

Assessing the adaptation behaviors of individuals and society in the event of various climatic and economic changes

( Farrington, 2001)

Proposed study Developing Decision Making Tools for Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change To test a vulnerability/adaptation approach to determine the critical climate change risks for agriculture. To demonstrate an integrated assessment of vulnerability to food insecurity, climate change risks and adaptation strategies to manage disaster risks while promoting sustainable development. Study area: Drought and flood prone regions of Orissa

Developing Decision Making Tools for Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change

To test a vulnerability/adaptation approach to determine the critical climate change risks for agriculture.

To demonstrate an integrated assessment of vulnerability to food insecurity, climate change risks and adaptation strategies to manage disaster risks while promoting sustainable development.

Study area: Drought and flood prone regions of Orissa

About Orissa ‘ The deadly cocktail of floods, cyclones, heat waves and droughts made Orissa the disaster capital of India’. … (Down to Earth, 2001) Most prone to natural disasters with increased frequency and coverage During last 100 years: 90 disaster (49 floods; 30 drought; 11 cyclone) Flood: once in four year (1834-1926) to once in two year (1926-2001) Since 1965, there was not a single year when the state has not experienced drought in one or another part. Drought/flood/cyclone are striking areas where these never occurred in past: Drought in southern Orissa; Flood in Kalahandi; Cyclone in Bhubaneswar Natural disasters exact a large toll every year in terms of human lives and livelihood in Orissa 1998 heat wave: Killed 1500 people 1999 cyclone: Killed >10000 people; 7.5 million homeless; Rs. 10000 crore loss 2001 flood: Crop failure of Rs. 1500 crores 2001 drought: 61 starvation death; half million migration to neighbouring states

‘ The deadly cocktail of floods, cyclones, heat waves and droughts made Orissa the disaster capital of India’. … (Down to Earth, 2001)

Most prone to natural disasters with increased frequency and coverage

During last 100 years: 90 disaster (49 floods; 30 drought; 11 cyclone)

Flood: once in four year (1834-1926) to once in two year (1926-2001)

Since 1965, there was not a single year when the state has not experienced drought in one or another part.

Drought/flood/cyclone are striking areas where these never occurred in past: Drought in southern Orissa; Flood in Kalahandi; Cyclone in Bhubaneswar

Natural disasters exact a large toll every year in terms of human lives and livelihood in Orissa

1998 heat wave: Killed 1500 people

1999 cyclone: Killed >10000 people; 7.5 million homeless; Rs. 10000 crore loss

2001 flood: Crop failure of Rs. 1500 crores

2001 drought: 61 starvation death; half million migration to neighbouring states

Incidence of natural calamity in Orissa

About Orissa... Poor human development index Infant mortality (highest) Poverty (2nd highest) Female literacy (one of the poor performer) Per capita income (2nd lowest) Poor growth performance Low use of fertilizer, pesticide, modern inputs Stagnation or decline in agriculture sector growth at a very low level Poor rural infrastructure Low irrigation coverage Poor market, rail and telecommunication network Vulnerable agriculture Very high degree of dependence on rice crop (mainly rainfed kharif rice) Erratic climate Large coastal area

Poor human development index

Infant mortality (highest)

Poverty (2nd highest)

Female literacy (one of the poor performer)

Per capita income (2nd lowest)

Poor growth performance

Low use of fertilizer, pesticide, modern inputs

Stagnation or decline in agriculture sector growth at a very low level

Poor rural infrastructure

Low irrigation coverage

Poor market, rail and telecommunication network

Vulnerable agriculture

Very high degree of dependence on rice crop (mainly rainfed kharif rice)

Erratic climate

Large coastal area

About Orissa... Growth trends 80/85 85/90 90/97 80/97 GSDP Orissa 4.0 (4) 3.6 (1) 3.7 (3) 3.5 (2) All India 5.0 6.4 6.0 5.5 Agriculture Orissa 3.1 (8) -1.4 (1) 0.2 (2) Neg (1) All India 3.2 4.6 2.7 3.0

Growth trends 80/85 85/90 90/97 80/97

GSDP Orissa 4.0 (4) 3.6 (1) 3.7 (3) 3.5 (2)

All India 5.0 6.4 6.0 5.5

Agriculture

Orissa 3.1 (8) -1.4 (1) 0.2 (2) Neg (1)

All India 3.2 4.6 2.7 3.0

(MSSRF, 2001)

Proposed study: specific objectives To apply concepts of vulnerability assessment as the basis for vulnerability mapping at a variety of geographic scales and for vulnerable socio-economic populations in India To understand present vulnerability of agricultural systems, through indicators and assessments of exposure and adaptive capacity in India. To compile alternative visions of socio-economic and environmental futures, including, economic growth, trade, climate change and natural disasters. To evaluate the potential impacts of future shocks to Indian agricultural systems and vulnerable stakeholders. To identify and evaluate adaptation options that link sustainable development with risk management of climate change, recognising the variety of institutional scales responsible for adaptation and the multiple objectives of adaptation (including poverty alleviation, empowerment and food security).

To apply concepts of vulnerability assessment as the basis for vulnerability mapping at a variety of geographic scales and for vulnerable socio-economic populations in India

To understand present vulnerability of agricultural systems, through indicators and assessments of exposure and adaptive capacity in India.

To compile alternative visions of socio-economic and environmental futures, including, economic growth, trade, climate change and natural disasters.

To evaluate the potential impacts of future shocks to Indian agricultural systems and vulnerable stakeholders.

To identify and evaluate adaptation options that link sustainable development with risk management of climate change, recognising the variety of institutional scales responsible for adaptation and the multiple objectives of adaptation (including poverty alleviation, empowerment and food security).

Proposed study: outputs Development of vulnerability indices for agriculture Improved understanding of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change Input to long term investment planning and national policy for adaptation in agriculture A range of potential agricultural policy options for adaptation to climate change which can be incorporated into national planning An increase in the quantity and quality of baseline data related to the impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector in India

Development of vulnerability indices for agriculture

Improved understanding of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change

Input to long term investment planning and national policy for adaptation in agriculture

A range of potential agricultural policy options for adaptation to climate change which can be incorporated into national planning

An increase in the quantity and quality of baseline data related to the impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector in India

Utility of such study A better knowledge of the phenomenon. Characterize future conditions. Sensitizing resource manager and policy planners to the nature and scale of potential impacts so as to take regionally differentiated policy measures Awareness to potential impacts and better preparedness managing emergency as well as long term risk involved Suggesting precautionary measures and possible adaptations to lessen adverse impacts Identifying the required interventions (technological, institutional, policy) that will reduce recurrent vulnerability and increase resilience. Prioritize policies and measures. Attract attention to certain areas which are more vulnerable

A better knowledge of the phenomenon. Characterize future conditions.

Sensitizing resource manager and policy planners to the nature and scale of potential impacts so as to take regionally differentiated policy measures

Awareness to potential impacts and better preparedness managing emergency as well as long term risk involved

Suggesting precautionary measures and possible adaptations to lessen adverse impacts

Identifying the required interventions (technological, institutional, policy) that will reduce recurrent vulnerability and increase resilience. Prioritize policies and measures.

Attract attention to certain areas which are more vulnerable